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The ADX indicator on the 4-hour XAU/USD chart has dropped to a multi-month low, signalling the absence of a clear trend.

At the same time, a technical assessment of price movements allows for the construction of a symmetrical triangle pattern with a central axis around $4,205 — indicating that the current price reflects an equal balance of major drivers, including:

→ Weakening conditions in the US labour market. According to media reports, ADP recorded an unexpected decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs, while Challenger reported 71,000 layoffs in November, bringing the total number of job cuts since the start of the year close to 1.17 million.

→ Rumours that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in May — a development that has strengthened expectations of more aggressive policy easing in 2026.

It is worth noting that on 1 December, gold briefly rose above the November high — a move that coincided with silver reaching an all-time record (as suggested in our analysis on 27 November). However, the bulls failed to hold the price above $4,245, indicating a lack of sufficient buying interest. It appears that traders require stronger justification to purchase gold at such elevated levels.

Most likely, market participants have adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of key releases:

→ Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for September, whose publication was delayed by the shutdown;

→ Next week’s FOMC decision (10 December).

Although the market currently appears balanced, XAU/USD may be functioning like a “compressed spring”. Be prepared for bursts of volatility.

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Gold prices held close to 4,200 USD per ounce on Friday, with investors focused on a significant, delayed inflation report ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision.

All attention is on the release of the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The data could be decisive in shaping expectations for the timing and scale of upcoming monetary easing.

Earlier in the week, further signs of a cooling labour market emerged. ADP reported an unexpected decline of 32,000 in private sector payrolls, while the Challenger report recorded 71,000 layoffs in November – bringing the year-to-date total to nearly 1.17 million.

This combination of soft employment figures has reinforced investor conviction that the Fed will cut rates as early as next week, with the market-implied probability now standing at approximately 87%.

Adding to the dovish narrative are reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May. Markets interpret this as a potential tilt towards more aggressive policy easing.

Despite a moderately lower weekly close, gold remains well-supported heading into the critical data release.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after its recent advance toward 4,220–4,230 USD. The price remains above the middle Bollinger Band, with the upper band turning slightly upward, suggesting an attempt to recover from recent weakness.

Key resistance is around 4,265 USD, a level the market has repeatedly tested without securing a decisive breakout. A sustained move above this level would clear the path towards 4,300 USD and beyond.

Immediate support is marked at 4,163 USD. A break below this level would increase selling pressure and raise the risk of a decline towards the next demand zone near 4,136 USD. A close below 4,136 USD would signal a transition into a deeper corrective phase.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD is trading within a tightening range between 4,188 USD and 4,220 USD, reflecting mixed short-term momentum. The middle Bollinger Band is providing near-term equilibrium, confirming the absence of a clear directional bias.

The upper Bollinger Band is capping advances near 4,220–4,225 USD, with several rejections from this zone indicating local overbought conditions. The lower band is offering support around 4,185–4,190 USD.

A sustained move above 4,220 USD would signal a resumption of bullish momentum, initially targeting 4,235–4,240 USD, and potentially 4,265 USD. Conversely, a break below 4,185 USD would open the way towards 4,163 USD. A loss of this support could intensify corrective pressure and expose the 4,136 USD level.

Conclusion

Gold remains in a holding pattern near 4,200 USD as traders await the delayed PCE inflation report. While labour market softness has bolstered expectations for Fed easing, the technical picture reflects consolidation within a defined range. A decisive reaction to today’s data is likely to set the tone ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with a break above 4,265 USD opening the door to further gains, while a drop below 4,163 USD risks a deeper correction.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation fell by 1% to $3.14 trillion over the past 24 hours, retreating from local highs but maintaining a relatively optimistic mood. Among the popular coins for the day, Zcash is once again in the lead, adding 10% and exceeding $400, while XRP loses 3.6% to $2.09. However, we still classify this as a rebound from oversold conditions, with doubts about the ability to renew October highs in the next couple of years. We also saw attempts to push the market up at the end of 2017 and in 2021. The capitalisation of the crypto market reached new highs during these pre-New Year rallies, but this is a dangerous game in which one needs to choose instruments more carefully than usual.

Bitcoin’s recovery slowed down, facing resistance from sellers in the $ 94,000 range. However, we view this as a pause rather than an exhaustion of the corrective rebound, which may well develop into the $98-100K range in the next few days. Nevertheless, we adhere to the 4-year cycle pattern, as the opposite has not yet been proven. In addition, we have seen a significant pullback from the highs of the previous two months, which is consistent with what happened in 2013, 2017 and 2021.

News Background

The Bull Score index developed by CryptoQuant fell to zero for the first time since January 2022, signalling a bearish market phase. CryptoQuant acknowledges that next year, Bitcoin is expected to fall to the $55K-$70K range.

Most of Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators are bearish, notes CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. According to him, without an influx of liquidity, the crypto market will enter a bearish phase of the crypto cycle.

K33 draws attention to several emerging medium-term factors that could form the basis for market growth. By February 2026, US regulators are expected to issue new rules for 401(k) retirement savings, which could potentially open up a $9 trillion market for Bitcoin.

Ethereum developers have successfully activated the Fusaka hard fork on the ETH mainnet. The update is designed to implement fundamental improvements to increase the scalability, efficiency and security of the Ethereum network.

BlackRock has announced the transformation of the financial system, influenced by cryptocurrencies and the growth of US public debt. Stablecoins are increasingly being used for cross-border payments and have become a bridge between the digital and traditional economies.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1629; (P) 1.1656; (R1) 1.1670; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the upside for the moment. Fall from 1.1917 should have completed at 1.1467. Further rise should be seen to 1.1727 resistance first. Firm break there will bring retest of 1.1917 high. Nevertheless, below 1.1590 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1345) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.57; (P) 155.05; (R1) 155.60; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 157.88 is resuming by breaking through 154.65 temporary low and intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading below channel support should bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 153.11). Firm break there will bring deeper fall to 150.90 cluster (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 157.88 at 151.00). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 156.17 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3303; (P) 1.3344; (R1) 1.3369; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside and rise from 1.3008 should extend to 1.3470 resistance first. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 1.3725/3787 resistance zone. On the downside, below 1.3274 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3718 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3184) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2760) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8006; (P) 0.8023; (R1) 0.8055; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 0.7828 low is seen are a corrective pattern. On the upside, above 0.8052 resistance will indicate that pattern is still extending, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8123 and above. On the downside, below 0.7990 will bring deeper fall back towards 0.7877 support.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6597; (P) 0.6611; (R1) 0.6624; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point as rise from 0.6420 is in progress. Further rally should be seen to retest 0.6709 resistance next. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 0.8913. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. On the downside, below 0.6574 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds, outlook stay bearish and rebound from 0.5913 is treated as a correction to down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3931; (P) 1.3954; (R1) 1.3982; More...

USD/CAD's fall from 1.4139 is resuming by breaking 1.3936 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 1.3538 to 1.4139 at 1.3909. Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise from 1.3538 has completed. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.3768 next. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4013 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Looking at the S&P 500 flirting with all-time highs, and with US Q3 growth hugging the 4% mark, you’d barely think the US economy is slowing, jobs are being lost, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to cut rates for a third time in a row. That’s how much the US tech sector and AI investments mask the ugly reality beneath the surface of the “Big, Beautiful” US economy — not even mentioning the ballooning US debt, racing toward the $40 trillion mark.

The US dollar is losing some of its global shine. The Chinese are trying to slow the yuan’s appreciation, while the Japanese are preparing for a rate hike this month despite the relentless rise in Japanese yields — now around 1.95% — which keeps threatening to pull Japanese capital back home.

The US 10-year yield is pushed higher by that repatriation risk even as Fed expectations soften. And if markets increasingly price in that the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) December hike won’t be its last, the Fed’s December cut could land lightly, especially if paired with cautious guidance. Doves are counting on Trump and his future Fed picks to push rates lower come hell or high water, but if markets don’t buy the cuts, yields won’t fall far. And if investors conclude the US 10-year’s long-term “seat” is nearer 3% than 2%, the valuation impact could be meaningful. Tech stocks, for instance, could easily shed 20–30% on that single shift.

So, the hope is that the miserable labour data has a disinflationary impact on US consumer prices — despite tariffs — giving the Fed room to cut, and perhaps even revive QE next year. The US dollar this morning is testing a critical Fibonacci support; if it breaks, the dollar may roll back into this year’s weakening trend. A softer dollar lifts equity valuations because foreign revenues translate into more dollars. But that’s just an ephemeral layer of make-up for an economy that today relies less on consumer spending — once two-thirds of GDP — and more on AI investment, which is estimated to account for nearly half of this year’s GDP growth. And that’s not brilliant news.

Today’s PCE data will have little impact on expectations for next week’s Fed meeting. Both headline and core are expected to stick near 3%, but steady. Absent a shock, US equities likely finish the week on an upbeat note.

Tech appetite is running hot this morning after Moore Threads Technology surged near 500% on its Shanghai debut. Moore Threads is a young, ambitious company founded in 2020 by a former Nvidia executive, aiming to build a full-stack AI and graphics ecosystem from scratch: chips, cards, software, data-center hardware — everything. Its MUSA architecture targets workloads from gaming graphics to AI training and high-performance computing, with the goal of becoming China’s Nvidia. It has government backing and, judging from the IPO, plenty of investor enthusiasm as well. The rally could lift the Shanghai Composite today. As for Nvidia, will it react negatively — fearing another hit to its already shrinking China business — or positively, as a sign of red-hot AI appetite? We’ll see.

Elsewhere, crude oil is set to finish the week flat — curious, given there were several reasons to expect a rally. One: OPEC confirmed last Sunday it will pause its supply-restoration strategy for the first three months of next year to put a floor under prices. Two: the Trump administration softened its climate stance this week and approved the import of fuel-powered mini Japanese cars — apparently because Trump liked them — making them “safe enough” for US roads overnight. Three: US-Russia talks yielded no progress. But none of these policy or geopolitical factors managed to lure buyers back in. Other typically supportive drivers — a weaker dollar and softer Fed expectations that should boost growth bets — also failed to spark a rebound. WTI remains stuck below the 50-day moving average near $60pb, hugging the top of the August–November downtrend channel. The medium-term outlook remains timidly bearish.

Conversely, natural gas prices are rising on the back of broad global demand, on news that Europeans aim to reduce dependence on Russian gas sooner than planned amid dimming hopes for peace, and on the longer-term view that gas remains a politically and commercially viable “bridge fuel.” Even with Washington’s U-turn on renewables, LNG exports, domestic gas-to-power projects, and petrochemicals remain growth areas. Gas allows traditional energy companies to run a dual strategy: maintain cash flow from oil and gas while positioning — even modestly — for the energy transition. Rising gas prices are, in my view, what keep energy companies well-bid despite subdued oil prices. And while they may be “boring” compared with Big Tech, they will be providing the power needed to run an AI-driven world — and they offer dividends and buybacks that matter if inflation heats up.