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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4022; (P) 1.4037; (R1) 1.4045; More...

USD/CAD is still bounded in consolidations below 1.4139 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 1.3970 support intact. On the upside, decisive break of 1.4139 resistance will resume whole rally from 1.3538. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4312. However, firm break of 1.3970 will suggest near term reversal, and bring deeper fall back to 1.3886 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6520; (P) 0.0.6530; (R1) 0.6544; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside at for 0.6579 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that whole fall from 0.6706 has completed as a three wave correction. Stronger rally should then be seen back to retest 0.6706. On the downside, below 0.6483 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Break of 0.6413 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1578; (P) 1.1596; (R1) 1.1615; More…

EUR/USD is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 1.1655 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.1490 and 1.1467 will resume the whole decline from 1.1917 high. Next targets are 1.1390, and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. However, decisive break of 1.1655 will argue that fall from 1.1917 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.1727 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3210; (P) 1.3240; (R1) 1.3270; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.3787 could have completed at 1.3008 already. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.3266) should confirm and target a retest on 1.3725/3787 resistance zone. Nevertheless, break of 1.3123 minor support will revive near term bearishness, and bring retest of 1.3008.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3184) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2760) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8027; (P) 0.8048; (R1) 0.8069; More…

USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidations below 0.8101 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that current rise from 0.7877 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.7828 low. Above 0.8101 will target 0.8123 resistance, and then 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7877 at 0.8218. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8015) will bring deeper fall back to 0.7877 support instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.85; (P) 156.17; (R1) 156.63; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidations below 157.88 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside should be contained by 154.47 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 157.88 will resume the whole rally from 139.87. Next target is 158.86 structural resistance, and then 161.94 high. However, firm break of 154.47 will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 152.63).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Japan’s data releases were surprisingly strong today, with both industrial output and retail sales showing impressive gains. Combined, they paint a picture of an economy that is slowly regaining momentum on both production and consumption fronts. Yet the Yen remains notably weak, failing to capitalize on the firmer-than-expected numbers.

One of the key constraints remains the inflation mix. Tokyo’s CPI held firm, but the strength is still concentrated in food prices, with rice, coffee, and chocolate continuing to show outsized gains. Services inflation, however, stayed relatively tame. That provides ammunition for the government’s argument that underlying inflation momentum is still insufficient to declare inflation “well anchored”—a key condition for more decisive BoJ tightening.

There is, however, a counter-argument. The reduction in U.S. auto tariffs is already showing up in production figures, and many expect the positive spillover to widen in the months ahead. That narrative supports the BoJ’s October assessment that downside growth risks are easing. With this major external drag fading, BoJ has more room to proceed with gradual tightening without threatening the recovery. However, how soon the BoJ acts is still an open question. The base case remains a January hike, but confidence in that call is low.

Dollar, meanwhile, remains under pressure and is heading toward its worst weekly performance since mid-year. Markets continue to price roughly 85% probability of a 25bps cut in December. That expectation has kept USD recoveries short-lived and contributed to sustained downside across the major pairs. Still, rate expectations beyond December are far from settled. Markets currently assign around 50% probability that the Fed will remain on hold through Q1, viewing the December cut largely as a risk-management move.

With the recent government shutdown delaying key data releases, the 2026 outlook remains highly uncertain. That fog should begin to lift after November non-farm payrolls on December 16 and CPI on December 18, which will provide the missing clarity on labor-market and inflation trends. Until then, any bets on extended easing—or on a prolonged pause—are premature.

In weekly performance terms, Kiwi continues to lead, followed by Aussie and Sterling. Dollar sits at the bottom, ahead of Yen and Swiss Franc, while Euro and Loonie hold mid-table positions.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.04%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.24%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.21%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.46%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.022 at 1.825.

Tokyo core CPI holds at 2.8% in November, inflation pressures still firm

In Japan, Tokyo’s inflation profile showed little moderation in November, with both core CPI and core-core CPI staying at 2.8% yoy. The readings came in slightly firmer than expected, while headline CPI eased just one-tenth to 2.7%. The stability of these measures indicates that underlying inflation momentum remains intact.

Much of the price momentum came from food, where sharp gains continued. The cost of rice surged 38.5% yoy, coffee beans rose 63.4%, and chocolate jumped 32.5%, reflecting broad price pressures across essential and discretionary categories.

Meanwhile, goods inflation climbed 4.0% yoy. Services inflation eased only marginally to 1.5% from 1.6%.

Japan industrial production surges 1.4% mom in October on auto rebound, but fluctuation to continue

Japan’s industrial production rose 1.4% mom in October, sharply beating expectations of a -0.6% decline. The rebound was driven primarily by a 6.6% jump in motor vehicle output, a sector benefiting from the U.S. tariff rate on Japanese cars being reduced to 15% from 27.5% in mid-September. The improvement highlights how quickly Japanese automakers responded once tariff uncertainty eased.

However, the forward outlook remains soft. Based on its manufacturer survey, METI expects output to fall -1.2% in November and contract a further -2.0% in December. Despite October’s upside surprise, the ministry kept its overall assessment unchanged, saying industrial production “fluctuates indecisively” amid continued uncertainty at home and abroad.

Retail sales also surprised to the upside, rising 1.7% yoy versus expectations of 0.8%. The strength suggests domestic demand remains more resilient than many feared, even as the industrial sector continues to face uneven momentum.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.85; (P) 156.17; (R1) 156.63; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidations below 157.88 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside should be contained by 154.47 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 157.88 will resume the whole rally from 139.87. Next target is 158.86 structural resistance, and then 161.94 high. However, firm break of 154.47 will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 152.63).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY corrected gains and tested the 155.75 support.
• A declining channel is forming with resistance at 156.50 on the 4-hour chart.
• Bitcoin started a recovery wave above $90,000.
• EUR/USD is consolidating below the 1.1620 resistance.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar failed to continue higher above 158.00 and corrected gains against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY dipped below 157.00 before the bulls appeared.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 153.61 swing low to the 157.89 high. The pair started a consolidating phase above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

Immediate resistance sits near 156.50. There is also a declining channel forming with resistance at 156.50. A close above the channel barrier could start a fresh surge.

The first key hurdle sits at 157.25. The next area of interest for the bulls could be 157.50. Any more gains could set the pace for a steady increase toward 158.00.

On the downside, there is key support at 155.75. The next support is 155.25 or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 153.61 swing low to the 157.89 high, below which the pair could start a steady decline to 154.60.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair remains in a positive zone, but it must surpass 1.1620 to start a decent increase.

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Japan’s industrial production rose 1.4% mom in October, sharply beating expectations of a -0.6% decline. The rebound was driven primarily by a 6.6% jump in motor vehicle output, a sector benefiting from the U.S. tariff rate on Japanese cars being reduced to 15% from 27.5% in mid-September. The improvement highlights how quickly Japanese automakers responded once tariff uncertainty eased.

However, the forward outlook remains soft. Based on its manufacturer survey, METI expects output to fall -1.2% in November and contract a further -2.0% in December. Despite October’s upside surprise, the ministry kept its overall assessment unchanged, saying industrial production “fluctuates indecisively” amid continued uncertainty at home and abroad.

Retail sales also surprised to the upside, rising 1.7% yoy versus expectations of 0.8%. The strength suggests domestic demand remains more resilient than many feared, even as the industrial sector continues to face uneven momentum.

In Japan, Tokyo’s inflation profile showed little moderation in November, with both core CPI and core-core CPI staying at 2.8% yoy. The readings came in slightly firmer than expected, while headline CPI eased just one-tenth to 2.7%. The stability of these measures indicates that underlying inflation momentum remains intact.

Much of the price momentum came from food, where sharp gains continued. The cost of rice surged 38.5% yoy, coffee beans rose 63.4%, and chocolate jumped 32.5%, reflecting broad price pressures across essential and discretionary categories.

Meanwhile, goods inflation climbed 4.0% yoy. Services inflation eased only marginally to 1.5% from 1.6%.