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Dow Jones: ⬆️ Buy

• Dow Jones broke resistance zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 48300.00

Dow Jones index recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 47000.00 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse c from the start of November.

The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave (iii).

Given strong multi-month uptrend, Dow Jones index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 48300.00, which stopped the previous waves i and b.

Silver: ⬆️ Buy

• Silver broke key resistance level 54.00
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 58.00

Silver recently broke the resistance zone between the key resistance level 54.00 (which stopped the previous sharp impulse wave (5) in October) and the resistance trendline of the ascending triangle from October.

The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3).

Given the clear daily uptrend, Silver can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 58.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3).

Week in review – Were the past few weeks just a farce?

Markets rebounded as if nothing happened – Nvidia (NVDA) earnings came to save the trend as the narrative was switching to a general AI-Bubble scare.

The earnings brought back confidence into the Market, and this feeling got exacerbated by a brand new dovish repricing after last Friday's speech by NY Fed President John Williams, who signaled his "support for a rate cut in the near-term".

Pricing for the December 10 FOMC Meeting – Source: FedWatch Tool

This sentiment was further confirmed by not-so-hot (late) September US PPI and Retail Sales and honestly weak Weekly Private Jobs data from ADP.

Cryptos bounced back timidly, with Bitcoin regaining the $92,000 level but rejecting it in the early afternoon, but the most impressive really were the Metals, all back to their cycle highs, and Stocks which almost erased their entire 3-week drop in the matter of a few days, with all US Indices posting gains today to close an already strong week.

Volumes have been low throughout the week, a classic of Thanksgiving trading.

Therefore, some of these moves might get retested as large traders coming back from their breaks may move prices quite aggressively – Things will get confirmed Monday.

Weekly Performance across Asset Classes

Weekly Asset Performance – What's going with Oil? November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView

In terms of Central Bank communication, not much changed except for a very divided Bank of Japan, leading to another, less ardent Yen selloff.

A December rate hike becomes more and more probable (now priced at roughly 56%) as yesterday's Tokyo inflation came in hotter than expected, keeping pressure on the BoJ to normalize policy.

But markets did receive some better geopolitical headlines: The light is at the end of the tunnel for the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with talks accelerating.

Steve Witkoff, US Envoy, will travel to Moscow next week to discuss the revised peace proposal, and Zelenskyy is expecting to discuss with the US "in the near future" as negotiations progress on a new framework.

The Week Ahead – Final stretches of Economic data before the December FOMC

Asia Pacific Markets – All eyes on Bank of Japan's Ueda and the Australian GDP

Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have bounced higher to close this calm FX week, with Aussie and Kiwi data still tenace (particularly for Australia).

NZD/USD posts a major reversal higher after the RBNZ Cut – Technical Outlook

AUD will be on the spotlight as the latest CPI report for Australia came red-hot (3.8% y/y), with hopes for cuts flying away from the continuous strong inflation numbers.

So keep an eye on the GDP report for Australia, releasing Wednesday evening in between PMI and Trade Balance releases.

The Yen, which hasn't grabbed enough attention in the past few months, will once again also be at the center of the scene as the week won't even have begun for North Americans.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will appear at a Business Leaders conference in Nagoya Sunday evening, with comments regarding his recent meeting with PM Takaichi and the blushing Japanese CPI.

Europe and UK Markets – Inflation reports and EU data flood

Markets are turning the page on the UK Budget which had taken quite some attention throughout the FX space and brought some renewed demand for the Pound, back above the 1.32 Level against the US Dollar.

Inflation data throughout the European continent will put both the EUR and CHF in action.

The European HICP is taking place on Tuesday at 6:00 A.M., while the Swiss inflation (closely watched for the next SNB decision) releases on Wednesday at 3:30 A.M.

The Swiss National Bank has been reflecting on a potential cut below 0% if Swiss inflation remains subdued, once again struck with small deflation in the past months. This has led a fair weakening of the CHF.

For the rest, a lot of growth Data will also be released for the Eurozone, with their PPI, Retail Sales and GDP going back to back to back towards the end of the week.

North America – Jerome Powell, Final Data for the Fed and a return of Canadian Dollar strength?

Canada has finally began to show upside to their ever-weakening growth data, posting a gigantic 2.6% (exp at 0.5%) Annualized Q3 GDP this morning (!), the previous was at -1.8% just to put things in perspective.

This combined with pre-occuring US Dollar weakness has taken USD/CAD to new lows to close the Thanksgiving week.

With American traders coming back to their screens, we should see if this week's flows get anchored. Expect hesitation until Friday's PCE release.

For other data points, US and Canadian PMIs will occupying NA traders from Monday to Thursday. US-Canada talks are still in a limbo.

Of course, don't forget the Monthly ADP Private Jobs release on Tuesday, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Canadian Employment Data releasing Friday morning.

Monday morning should be active for Markets with Fed's Powell participating in a panel discussion – Nevertheless, the FOMC is in a blackout period so he shouldn't speak much regarding the following week's decision.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)

Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!

Canadian Highlights

• GDP growth rebounded sharply in Q3, but the composition points to soft domestic demand. Revisions back to 2022 indicate that the economy was stronger than previously thought.
• Industry GDP posted a modest gain in September, but points to a contraction in October. Export-reliant sectors continue to lag.
• Tangible benefits from the two new government announcements will take some time to materialize. For now, the economy is tracking in line with the BoC’s estimates, suggesting the policy rate will remain on hold.

U.S. Highlights

• Market expecta k provided further anecdotal evidence that growth in the U.S. economy remains sluggish.

Canada – The Economy is Still Playing Andante

The third quarter GDP report spilled plenty of black ink, giving Black Friday week a literal twist. Markets reacted positively with the S&P/TSX building on previous gains, rising by 3.5% and long-term rates holding close to 3.1%. The loonie firmed by a full cent to $0.72

GDP growth rebounded sharply in Q3, rising by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), annualized - far above the consensus call of 0.5% and our tracking of 0.9% (Chart 1). The upward surprise was tempered slightly by revisions. The second-quarter contraction was marked down from -1.6% to -1.8%, reflecting weaker personal consumption expenditures.

The composition tells an interesting story. Exports were basically flat last quarter after falling sharply in Q2, while business investment continued to slide amid still elevated trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, the pillar that carried the economy earlier in the year – household spending and inventories – slowed considerably. This kept underlying domestic demand soft, even as government spending surged by an eye-catching 12.2% (annualized), driven almost entirely by a massive increase in spending on weapon systems.

The GDP release also incorporated revisions from the Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts. These updates showed stronger consumer spending and a substantial upgrade to non-residential investment. The latter added $135 billion to the level of GDP over the past two years, suggesting that Canada’s productivity performance – while still troubling – may not be as weak as previously thought.

We also received figures on GDP by industry for September, which showed a modest pick-up in activity. It offered a clearer view on how the ongoing trade tensions are filtering through supply chains. Industries most affected by tariffs, such as manufacturing, rebounded but remain a laggard and still face a difficult path forward (Chart 2). But even outside of trade exposed sectors, the rest of the economy is not convincingly expanding either, with several sectors that had shown strength earlier in the year, now contracting. The advance estimate points to a decline in October.

On the musical spectrum, the economy is still playing andante: faster than adagio but far from allegro –a slow, steady walk rather than a spirited march. In this otherwise muted symphony, the federal government added two notable accents. First, a suite of measures aimed at protecting and transforming Canada’s industry by redirecting demand towards domestically-produced steel and lumber. Second, Ottawa and Alberta reached an agreement to advance a new pipeline connecting oil production to the West Coast, conditional on achieving a 75% reduction in emissions over the next decade.

As with all major infrastructure projects, tangible economic impacts will take years to materialize. For now, the underlying rhythm of the economy remains broadly aligned with the Bank’s forecast for growth just above 1% through 2026, with existing slack already embedded in the outlook. A future rate cut cannot be fully ruled out but would require a pace of growth far closer to largo – a more meaningful cooling relative to the already subdued outlook.

U.S. – Equity Markets Gobble Up Prospects for a December Rate Cut

U.S. equity markets traded higher through the holiday shortened week, boosted by expectations for a December rate cut and renewed enthusiasm for the AI trade. Meanwhile, economic data out this week reinforced the narrative that some sluggishness has materialized in the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 is looking to end the week higher by over 3%, more than erasing last week’s losses and is now up 16% year-to-date. Treasury yields dipped by a few basis points on the week, with the 10-year currently hovering around 4%.

Fed futures have been on a wild ride recently. Just over a week ago, markets attached a roughly one-third probability to a December rate cut. But since then, two Fed officials who hew closely to Chair Powell, including NY Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (non-voting member) voiced support for a December rate cut. Pricing has since swung back to over 80% (Chart 1). The Fed doesn’t tend to fight the market and with the decision just over a week away, a further trimming in the policy rate looks to be a safe bet. Though if ADP employment data were to surprise to the upside next week, odds may yet shift again.

Turning to this week’s economic data releases, retail figures for September showed that spending slowed at the end of the third quarter – putting Q4 on a shakier footing. The softening in September spending isn’t entirely surprising. Measures of consumer sentiment have nosedived recently, with the Conference Board’s November reading slipping to its lowest level since April and second lowest reading since the depths of the 2020 Global Pandemic (Chart 2). Survey details show that consumers’ assessment of job availability is particularly downbeat, as are prospects for making ‘larger purchases’ over the next six months. While shifts in consumer confidence metrics have proven to be a less reliable predictor of spending patterns post-pandemic, the steady downward trend across multiple measures suggests the direction of travel is likely to be lower over the near-term.

This was further confirmed in the Fed’s Beige Book, which noted that overall consumer spending had ‘declined further’ in recent months, even though higher-end retail spending remained resilient. The Fed’s contacts chalked some of the weakness up to the government shutdown, and a pullback in EV sales following the expiration of the federal tax credit. However, the softening labor market also likely had some influence, with the majority of Districts seeing a decline in hiring and about half noting weaker labor demand. Importantly, employers across most Districts reported limiting headcounts using hiring freezes, ‘replacement-only’ hiring and attrition rather than through layoffs.

This reinforces the ‘low hire, low fire’ narrative’. But it’s a precarious balance, and one where the downside risks have the potential to materialize very quickly. While this supports the case for a bit more easing in the fed funds rate, still elevated inflation and a policy stance that is quickly closing in on neutral are important considerations that can’t be overlooked. Bringing the policy rate much lower runs the risk of putting the Fed out of position in the event the labor market were to firm in the months ahead.

• Flurry of US data to test dovish Fed expectations as next meeting looms.
• ISM PMIs, ADP employment and PCE inflation may yet upset rate cut hopes.
• Eurozone CPI, Australian GDP, Canadian employment also on tap.

December rate cut not a done deal yet

After a string of hawkish remarks by numerous Fed speakers, the doves made a comeback during the past 10 days, putting a rate cut at the December meeting back on the table. This lifted the odds of a 25-bps reduction on December 10 from around a quarter to almost 80%, in a dramatic reversal that reverberated across financial markets. Treasury yields sank, the US dollar not so much, but risk assets were propelled higher, with Wall Street and cryptocurrencies in particular recouping a chunk of their November losses.

This sudden turnaround wasn’t just on the basis of two new doves joining the rate-cut bandwagon, most notably one of them being influential New York Fed chief John Williams. The more recent data has raised fresh question marks about the strength of the US economy.

However, Chair Powell’s argument that policymakers won’t have access to the latest labour market and inflation indicators in time for the December policy decision still stands. In light of the missing and somewhat conflicting data, next week’s releases will be monitored very closely, as there’s plenty on the calendar that could push the odds either back towards 50% or closer to 100%.

Will the ISM PMIs pose a stagflation dilemma?

First on the agenda is the ISM manufacturing PMI for November on Monday. The services PMI is released a couple of days later. The US manufacturing sector has been contracting since March according to the ISM survey, amid the tariff-related uncertainty and possible retaliatory backlash against American goods from international buyers.

Employment has also been declining, with the sub-index printing below 50 since February. However, the price index has plunged from close to 70.0 to 58.0 in October, casting doubt on the claim that tariffs have been inflationary. What’s worrying, though, is that the equivalent gauge for the services sector has stayed elevated near 70.0, suggesting that domestic price pressures are to blame for the country’s inflation rate being stuck within the 3.0% vicinity.

The overall PMI for services edged up to 52.4 in October, helped by a jump in new orders, while the manufacturing PMI declined to 48.7. Another healthy rise in services activity in November would bolster the hawks at the Fed, whereas a sudden drop to 50.0 or lower would back the case for an immediate rate cut.

ADP in focus as November NFP delayed

Just as important will be Wednesday’s ADP employment report. The official November payrolls report isn’t due until December 16, and with the October one cancelled, the ADP’s employment survey for the private sector will offer a vital update on the labour market. In October, there were 42k jobs added, which was more than expected. As with the ISM PMIs, any surprises in either direction pose a symmetrical risk to easing expectations, as well as the US dollar.

More jobs data will follow on Thursday with the Challenger Layoffs. Even though most Fed officials haven’t sounded too worried about the recent round of job-cut announcements, any jump in layoff numbers in November could fuel concerns that the US labour market is in trouble.

September PCE inflation might not matter

Moving to Friday, the focus will shift to the PCE inflation and personal consumption indicators for September. Although the Fed will be more eager to see the November stats, whose release date hasn’t been confirmed yet, the September report will still be watched for some guidance, especially if the incoming data continues to give mixed messages on the state of the economy.

Headline PCE is forecast to have inched up to 2.8% y/y in September from 2.7%, while the all-important core PCE price index is projected to have stayed unchanged at 2.9% y/y.

Other releases will include industrial production on Wednesday, and factory orders and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey on Friday.

Should December rate cut bets take a hit from a broadly strong set of figures, Wall Street’s rebound would be put at risk, potentially dashing hopes of a Santa rally this year, at least before the Fed meeting.

Aussie might shrug off GDP data

In Australia, the latest inflation readings couldn’t have been more decisive for the Reserve Bank of Australia where rate cut expectations have completely evaporated. The consumer price index rose by a more than-forecast 3.8% y/y in October, well above the RBA’s upper target band of 3.0%.

Combined with signs of a recovery in the labour market, there’s very little prospect of the RBA trimming rates again anytime soon. Hence, Wednesday’s GDP figures for the third quarter are unlikely to alter those expectations much even if they disappoint.

The Australian dollar will probably shrug off the growth data and will instead be driven by global risk sentiment, as well as by PMI numbers out of China on Sunday (official government), Monday (S&P Global manufacturing) and Wednesday (S&P Global services).

Loonie bulls hoping for jobs lift

The Bank of Canada is another central bank that’s had to adopt a more neutral tone lately. Although the Canadian economy continues to reel from President Trump’s tariffs, employment conditions appear to be stabilizing and underlying inflation measures remain sticky.

Yet, in the absence of Washington and Ottawa striking a trade agreement over the next few months, further rate cuts cannot be ruled out. But the bar is high as the BoC has already slashed rates to 2.25% so policymakers are likely preserving some firepower for a rainier day.

Along with inflation, the labour market will be key for the BoC in determining the need for additional easing. If Friday’s employment numbers show that the economy added jobs for the third month in a row, expectations of a 25-bps reduction will probably fade further, boosting the Canadian dollar.

Eurozone CPI could be a non-event

Inflation is a lesser concern in the Eurozone where the European Central Bank has no plans to adjust policy anytime soon. The data backs the ECB’s firmly neutral stance.

The headline rate of CPI has been hovering around 2.0% since spring. The flash estimates for November due on Tuesday are expected to maintain the flat picture, with headline CPI holding steady at 2.1%. On Friday, no change is anticipated in revised estimates of Q3 GDP when the economy expanded by 0.2% q/q.

German industrial orders and French industrial production might also move the euro on Friday. But on the whole, Fed policy and US-EU trade relations will be a bigger driver for the single currency in the short-to-medium term.

Yen and Oil in search for a boost

In contrast, the dollar/yen pair is expected to remain somewhat more volatile, where the diverging monetary policies of the Fed and Bank of Japan are not quite having the desired effect. Although the yen has steadied over the past week following increased Fed easing bets and some unexpectedly hawkish comments from BoJ policymakers, it’s still trapped within the intervention zone.

Monday’s revised capital expenditure figures for Q3 out of Japan and Friday’s household spending numbers for October could provide some additional support to the yen if they bolster the odds of a December rate hike.

Finally, OPEC+ countries are widely anticipated to keep production quotas unchanged on Sunday, reaffirming their decision to pause output increases during the first three months of 2026. Oil traders will therefore likely be paying more attention to any updates on the Trump administration’s efforts to get Ukraine and Russia to agree to a peace plan.

Canadian labour markets will be the focus with the scheduled release of Canadian international trade data delayed by the U.S. government shutdown, while the release of U.S. employment and trade data was also pushed further back into December.

The November employment report on Friday will be the last major data release ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Dec.10.

We expect employment growth to be in flat in November, following larger-than-expected 67,000 and 60,000 increases in October and September, respectively. Slower population growth is expected to limit the number of new entrants into labour markets, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.9% from October after 7.1% in September and August.

Canadian labour markets are still soft with the unemployment rate still roughly one percentage point above levels we expect would be consistent with a “normal” backdrop. However, a steady 6.9% in November would mark the first month since May 2023 that there wasn’t a rise on a year-over-year basis.

Employment in heavily trade exposed sectors like manufacturing and transportation and warehousing have still underperformed broader trends, but showed significant improvement in October. Underperformance in trade exposed sectors have yet to spread broadly across the economy. Layoffs have been limited with the rise in the unemployment rate in October mostly reflecting longer job search times for new entrants. Canada’s employment count overall was up 299,000 in October from a year ago.

Industry data like job openings from indeed.com continued to show signs of stabilization in hiring demand. And, business confidence measures have improved as some of the more damaging international trade scenarios from earlier this year have not materialized.

Additionally, we’ll be watching hours worked closely. A decline in October (despite a gain in employment) was reportedly largely due to a teacher’s strike in Alberta, and should reverse in November. Wage growth unexpectedly ticked higher in October, but we expect it will broadly continue to edge lower in the near term with business surveys still suggesting planned wage increases to be smaller.

In October’s interest rate cut, the BoC clearly signalled that interest rates had now been adjusted to about where they should be (lower end of the estimated “neutral range” where they’re not significantly adding to inflation pressures), making additional reductions unlikely without significant downside surprises in growth, and/or inflation.

Week ahead data watch:

• We'll get delayed U.S. personal spending data for September next Friday. We expect spending to increase 0.2% month-over-month. Retail sales for September came in below consensus, but the services component appeared strong, offsetting weakness in goods spending.
• We anticipate personal income will rise 0.4% month-over-month, matching August.

Monday, Dec 1, 2025

Tuesday, Dec 2, 2025

Wednesday, Dec 3, 2025

Thursday, Dec 4, 2025

Friday, Dec 5, 2025

Canada’s economy returned to growth in Q3, expanding 0.6% qoq after contracting -0.5% in Q2. The improvement was driven mainly by a stronger trade balance as imports fell and exports edged higher.

Government-led capital investment also provided support, though business investment was flat. The gains were partially offset by declines in both household and government consumption, alongside slower inventory accumulation.

On a per-capita basis, GDP rose 0.5% qoq after a -0.5% decline the previous quarter—offering some relief amid ongoing concerns about sluggish productivity and population-driven dilution of output.

Monthly data aligned with expectations, with September GDP rising 0.2% mom.

Full Canada GDP release here.

In the US, we received more of the delayed data following the end of the government shutdown last week. September retail sales disappointed with retail sales growing only 0.2% m/m below expectations of a 0.4% m/m rise and the control group saw spending decline by 0.1% m/m against an expected rise of 0.3% m/m. Hence, consumers lost some momentum at the end of an otherwise solid third quarter. The conference board consumer confidence indicator recorded a significant decline in November to 88.7 which is the second lowest reading in four years. Expectations for the next six months declined to the lowest level since April as consumers are increasingly concerned about higher prices and a cooling labour market. Overall, the data prints from the US added fuel to the worries surrounding the US economy and markets are now pricing about an 80% chance of an interest rate cut at the FOMC December meeting up from 60% last week.

In the euro area, we received the first inflation prints for November from France, Spain, Germany, and Italy ahead of the aggregate euro area print we get next week. Inflation came in slightly lower than expected with especially services inflation slowing in November. Consensus was looking for a rise in the euro area aggregate print from 2.1% y/y to 2.2% y/y but is likely to stay at 2.1% y/y in line with our initial forecast. Despite the slightly weaker inflation data we do think this changes the outlook for the ECB which still has a strong bias for holding the policy rate steady, which we expect they will do throughout 2026. The ECB September staff projections saw headline inflation at 2.0% in Q4, so inflation is still on track to come in higher than ECB had expected.

In the UK, the Autumn Budget was announced, raising tax rates to post war highs, with the Chancellor asking "ordinary people to pay a little bit more". The GBP strengthened on the release as the government targeted a tighter fiscal policy than markets had been expecting. This provides a bigger buffer against future excess debt issuance although the budget delivered less near-term fiscal tightening than expected. Particularly the absence of VAT hikes paves the way for more near-term easing from the Bank of England in our view, and markets now price above 90% chance of a cut from Bank of England in December.

In Germany, the Ifo Business Climate index for November declined against expectations to 88.1 (cons: 88.5) from 88.4. At the same time, the Q3 GDP growth rate was confirmed at 0.0% q/q and revealed that private consumption fell 0.3% q/q, which is the first quarterly decline recorded since 2023. Hence, the German economy is still stagnating and has yet to recover although expectations for a recovery remain intact. We will likely have to await the effects of fiscal easing to kick in before the economy records a rebound in activity.

Next week focus turns to the US ISM report and ADP employment for November as well as the September PCE inflation. In the euro area, we receive the aggregate inflation print, final PMIs, and the ECB's preferred measure of wage growth for the third quarter. Especially the wage growth will be interesting for the ECB as it is what keeps inflation from falling below target currently. In China focus turns to the PMI report for November which is expected to rebound following a sharp drop in October due to lower exports, likely driven by the threat of 100% US tariffs which never materialised.

Full report in PDF.