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The Euro consolidating within a tight range in early Monday’s trading but keeps overall bearish bias for further weakness.

The latest data showed that inflation in the US remains elevated, which adds to recent hawkish tones from Fed and continues to fuel dollar.

The single currency was down 1.3% vs greenback last week and on track for a monthly drop of around 3%, which contributes to bearish near-term outlook.

Technical studies on daily chart are predominantly bearish but oversold and suggesting that bears may take a breather before resuming.
Immediate targets lay at 1.0483/60 (Jan 6 low / Fibo 38.2% retracement of 0.9535/1.1032, reinforced by 100DMA), with break lower to expose next significant supports at1.0329/1.0284 (200DMA / 50% retracement).

Formation of reversal pattern on monthly chart (the pair is on track for strong monthly drop after four-month rally) also weighs on Euro, as monthly techs keep bearish momentum and stochastic is overbought.

Falling daily Tenkan-sen (1.0638) marks initial resistance, which should ideally cap, with stronger upticks to stall under daily cloud top (1.0765) to keep in play larger bears off 1.1032 (2023 high, posted on Feb 2).

Res: 1.0587; 1.0638; 1.0679; 1.0765.
Sup: 1.0483; 1.0460; 1.0411; 1.0329.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.76; (P) 162.44; (R1) 163.66; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. The favored case is that correction from 172.11 has completed at 155.33 already. Above 163.73 will resume the rise from 155.33 to 169.26/172.11 resistance zone. However, break of 160.44 minor support will dampen this case and bring retest of 155.33 low instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 172.11 medium term should have completed at 155.33. With 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 intact, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.72; (P) 143.37; (R1) 144.58; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 148.38 has completed at 137.37 already. Above 144.15 will resume the rally form 137.37 to retest 148.38 high. Nevertheless, break of 142.13 and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 142.14) will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back towards 137.37 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.21) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, firm break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Sustained break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8808; (P) 0.8822; (R1) 0.8846; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. Another decline is mildly in favor as long as 0.8927 resistance holds. Below 0.8782 will target 0.8720 support. On the upside, break of 0.8927 will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 0.8977 high.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 55 day EMA (now at 0.8807). Sustained trading below there will argue that fall from 0.9267 is in progress. Such decline is seen as a leg inside long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Break of 0.8545 will pave the way back to 0.8201 (2022 low). On the other hand, strong rebound from current level will extend the rise from 0.8545 through 0.8977 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5582; (P) 1.5639; (R1) 1.5736; More...

EUR/AUD's rally continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.5749 resistance. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.5976 has completed at 1.5254. Decisive break of 1.5749 should pave the way to retest 1.5976 high. On the downside, below 1.5605 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, it's still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9898; (P) 0.9912; (R1) 0.9938; More....

EUR/CHF's break of 0.9923 resistance suggests that whole corrective pattern from 1.0095 has completed with three waves down to 0.9844. Intraday bias is back on the upside for trend line resistance (now at 0.9981). Sustained break there will add to this bullish cas and bring retest of 1.0095 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.9844 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9832 support intact, rise from 0.9407 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0095 and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0021) will be a medium term bullish signal, and bring further rally to 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484). However, firm break of 0.9832 support will revive medium term bearishness and bring retest of 0.9407 low instead.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview, "Interest rates are the most efficient tool in the present circumstances. There is every reason to believe that we will do another 50 basis points in March. After that, we will see. We are data dependent."

"We will do more hikes if necessary to return inflation to our target of 2% in a timely manner. It will take what it will take," She added.

"I don't have a timeline. I have an objective, which is our target. We need to raise interest rates to a level that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%, and to keep rates there for as long as necessary to be confident that inflation returns to 2% in a timely manner. That's the mantra." She said.

"Hiking rates inevitably dampens demand. And what we're trying to do is to adjust demand. That's the mechanical impact that we expect from what we are doing."

Full interview here.

The Dow Jones 30 slips as strong economic data may allow the Fed to stick to its high rate policy. On the daily chart, the index is struggling to hold on to its gains from the past three months. A break below 33000 would cause a retest of the lower band of the current consolidation and December’s low of 32500. A break below this major floor would force more investors to unwind their positions, triggering a broader sell-off. 33200 is the immediate resistance should buyers start to make their way back.

The Japanese yen fell after the BoJ governor nominee Kazuo Ueda said he may keep policy ultra-loose. The pair has previously met stiff selling pressure at 144.10 near the origin of the sharp December liquidation. But that did not deter the bulls as bids emerged on the 20-day SMA (142.20) which coincides with the base of a breakout rally in mid-February. This suggests that overall sentiment is still upbeat in the medium-term. 143.00 is a fresh support and a close above 144.10 would trigger a runaway rally towards 145.80.

The US dollar climbed after the PCE accelerated in January. On the daily chart, the pair is still probing bids near January’s low of 1.1850. The latest bounce came to a halt in the supply zone 1.2150 from the sell-off in mid-February. Then a drop below the psychological level of 1.2000 at the base of a former bullish engulfing candle shows that the path of least resistance remains down. The recent swing low of 1.1920 is the next support and its breach would expose the critical floor at 1.1850. 1.2040 is the closest resistance.