Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5381; (P) 1.5435; (R1) 1.5503; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral as consolidation from 1.5704 is in progress. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5172) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.5704 will resume the rally from 1.4281.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9846; (P) 0.9884; (R1) 0.9916; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation from 0.9953 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 0.9798 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9953 will resume the rise from 0.9407 to 100% projection of 0.9407 to 0.9798 from 0.9641 at 1.0032.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9407. Further rally is expected as long as 0.9641 support holds, even as a corrective rebound. Next target 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072. Reaction from there, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.0128) will reveal whether the trend is reversing.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3551; (P) 1.3610; (R1) 1.3689; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral first. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.3501 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3976 will resume larger up trend and target 200% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.4285. On the downside, firm break of 1.3501 will bring deeper correction 55 day EMA (now at 1.3457) and below instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Based on current impulsive momentum, it could be resuming long term up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Whether it is or it isn't, retest of 1.4689 (2016 high) should be seen next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3222 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6359; (P) 0.6411; (R1) 0.6446; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6535 resistance, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.6547), will raise the chance of medium term bottoming, and target 0.6680 support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6371 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6169 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.6680 support turned resistance holds. Medium term momentum remains strong and retest of 0.5506 (2020 low) cannot be ruled out. But firm break of 0.6680 will be the first sign of reversal, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.7135 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9833; (P) 0.9894; (R1) 0.9934; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 0.9847 minor support holds. Break of 1.0092 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9534 at 1.0283. However, break of 0.9847 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9534/9630 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the case of medium term bottoming at 0.9534 building up, with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. While it is too early to call for trend reversal, firm break of 0.9998 opens up stronger rebound back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.0630) even as a corrective rise. However, sustained trading back below 55 day EMA (now at 0.9938) will revive medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.9534 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1425; (P) 1.1495; (R1) 1.1553; More...

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1664 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 1.1256 minor support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.1644 will resume rise from 1.0351 to 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.0922 at 1.2065. However, break of 1.1256 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0922 support and below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is part of the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1759 support turned resistance holds. Parity would be the next target on resumption. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.1759 will confirm medium term bottoming, and open up stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2392).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.21; (P) 148.02; (R1) 149.04; More...

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 151 .93 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 149.69 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

USD/JPY:

The current general bias for USDJPY on the H4 chart is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Overnight, USDJPY had some bearish momentum downwards with the price closing under the 1st resistance line at 147.410 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is located. Price is currently trading at 147.352 at time of writing. If this bearish momentum continues, expect USDJPY to possibly head downwards towards the 1st support at 145.751 where the 100% and 0% Fibonacci lines are located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 147.410
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 145.751

DXY:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DXY is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Overnight, DXY had bullish momentum upwards with the price currently trading at 111.310 at time of writing. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st support at 110.459, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 112.572
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 110.459

EUR/USD:

On the H4, with the price moving within the ascending trendline and above ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the 1st support at 0.98567, which is in line with the swing lows to the 1st resistance at 1.00914, where the swing high is. Alternatively, the price may drop to the 2nd support at 0.97528, where the overlap support and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st support at 0.98567
• H4 1st resistance at 1.00914

GBP/USD:

On the H4, price is above the ichimoku cloud and breaking the descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that the price may test the 1st resistance at 1.16409, which is in line with the previous swing high. If the 1st resistance is broken, the 2nd resistance is at 1.18641, where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement sits. Alternatively, the price may drop to the 1st support at 1.12730, where the swing low support is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 current price
• H4 1st resistance at 1.16409

USD/CHF:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for USDCHF is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Overnight, USDCHF had some bullish momentum upwards with the price reflecting off the 1st support at 0.98532 where the 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located. Price is currently trading at 0.99830 at time of writing. Expecting price to possibly head back up to retest the 1st resistance line at 1.00678 where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration

• H4 1st support at 0.99250
• H4 2nd support at 0.98532
• H4 1st resistance at 1.00678

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On H4, with the price within the descending channel and crossing ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the 1st resistance at 1655.223, which is in line with the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1616.659, where the previous swing lows are. Alternatively, the price may rise to retest the 1st resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance is at 1672.801, where the previous swing high is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1655.223
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1616.659

AUD/USD:

On the H4, with the price breaking the descending channel and above ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the 1st support at 0.63808, which is in line with the overlap support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 0.65190, which is in line with the overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. If the 1st resistance is broken, the 2nd resistance is at 0.66748, where the 50% fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, the price may drop to the 2nd support at 0.61921, where the previous swing low is.

Areas of consideration

• H4, 1st support at 0.63808
• H4, 1st resistance at 0.65190

NZD/USD:

On the H4 chart, as the price is breaking the descending trendline, moving within the ascending channel and the price is above ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 0.58971, which is in line with the previous swing high and 127.2% fibonacci extension. If the 1st resistance is broken, the 2nd resistance is at 0.59963, where the 50% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Alternatively, the price may drop to the 1st support at 0.57871, where the previous swing lows are.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.58971
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 0.59963

USD/CAD:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for USDCAD is bearish. To add confluence to this, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Overnight, price reflected off the 1st resistance at 1.36751 where the 0% fibonacci line is located. If this bearish momentum continues, the price will head towards the 1st support at 1.35040 where the previous swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci projection line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.36751
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.35029
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 1.34675

OIL:

Looking at the H4 chart, the current overall bias for Oil is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Overnight, price continued its bullish momentum upwards with price currently above the 1st support line at 96.538 where the 100% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance at 99.439 where previous swing high and 0% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 99.439
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 96.538

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Overnight, DXY consolidated around the area of 32648.88. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance at 33272.34 where the 23.6% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines are located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 30775.37
• H4 time frame, 1st Resistance at 33272.34

DAX:

On the H4 chart, the price has now closed above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a breakout of a descending trendline. Expecting price to possibly continue this bullish momentum and head towards the 1st resistance at 13490.91, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. If the 1st resistance is broken, the 2nd resistance could be at 14717.44, which is in line with the previous swing high. Alternatively, the price may drop to the 1st support at 12548.42, which is in line with the swing low.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 13490.91
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 14717.44

ETHUSD:

Looking at the H4 chart, the current overall bias for ETHUSD is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Overnight, price continued to consolidate along the 1st support level at 1561.62 where 2 of the 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to head towards the 1st resistance at 1792.55 where the previous swing high and 100% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 1792.55
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1561.62

BTCUSD:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for BTCUSD is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Overnight, price continued to consolidate along the 1st support at 20440.00 where the 2 of the 50% Fibonacci lines are located. If this bullish momentum continues, expect the price to head towards the 1st resistance at 21892.00, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance 21892.00
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 20440.00

S&P 500:

On the H4 chart, the overall bias for S&P500 is bullish. To add confluence to this, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Overnight, price continued to consolidate with price currently trading at 3856.11 at time of writing. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance at 4016.04 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and 23.6% Fibonacci projection line is located.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 3805.83
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 4016.04

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9937; (P) 0.9980; (R1) 1.0044; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.0030 minor resistance will suggest that pull back from 1.0146 has completed at 0.9840. Bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.0146. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.0283 projection level. However, break of 0.9840 support will now be a sign of reversal, and bring deeper decline back to 0.9779 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9779 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Dollar is trading mildly lower in Asian session today, but manages to maintain most of this week's gain so far. The greenback will look into today's FOMC rate decision, where a 75bps hike is well priced in. Today's Fed meeting is not about today, but how Chair Jerome Powell would indicate the rate path ahead. Meanwhile, Yen is trading broadly higher as supported by comment from Japanese official that even gradual depreciation in exchange rate is now a concern. Overall, most major pairs and crosses are stuck inside last week's range, with the exception of Kiwi.

Technically, some focuses will be on 0.9847 minor support in EUR/USD and 1.0030 minor resistance in USD/CHF. Break of these levels will argue that Dollar's near term pull back is finished, which set the stage for more upside in the greenback, at least until Friday's non-farm payrolls.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.11%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.74%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.88%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0026 at 0.255. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.24%> S&P 500 dropped -0.41%. NASDAQ dropped -0.89%. 10-year yield dropped -0.025 to 4.052, after dipping to 3.920.

BoC Macklem: We are getting closer, but we are not there yet

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech that the central bank is trying to "balance the risks of under- and over-tightening." "The tightening phase will draw to a close," he added. "We are getting closer, but we are not there yet."

BoC is still "far from that goal" of ensuring "low, stable and predictable" inflation. "With inflation so far above our target, we are particularly concerned about the upside risks," he added.

Macklem also said, "We expect growth will stall in the next few quarters—in other words, growth will be close to zero. But once we get through this slowdown, growth will pick up, our economy will grow solidly, and the benefits of low and predictable inflation will be restored."

Japan Suzuki concerned about gradual weakening of Yen

Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told the parliament, "I am very concerned about the gradual weakening of the yen", which could accelerate inflation by increasing import costs.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda also said, recent Yen weakness raises uncertainty on the outlook, and is negative for the economy.

Regarding monetary policy, Kuroda said, "If the achievement of our 2% inflation target comes into sight, making yield curve control more flexible could become an option." But for now, he added that the central bank must maintain ultra-low loose monetary policy to support the economy.

Australia AiG manufacturing fell to 49.6, longstanding supply-side problems continue

Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped -0.6 to 49.6 in October. Looking at some details, production dropped -0.1 to 47.6. Employment rose 7.1 to 46.9. New orders dropped -4.0 to 53.8. sales dropped -3.0 to 48.4. Input prices dropped -6.8 to 78.0. Selling prices dropped -2.7 to 67.5. Average wages dropped -5.1 to 71.0.

Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group said: "Australian manufacturing is in a holding pattern, with three straight months of flat results. Demand conditions in the market remain stable, but longstanding supply-side problems, such as labour and supply chain shortages, continue to drag on the industry."

NZ unemployment rate unchanged at 3.3%, record hourly earning growth

New Zealand employment grew 1.3% in Q3, above expectation of 0.5%. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.3%, above expectation of 3.2%. Labor force participation rate rose 0.8% to 71.7%. Underutilization rate dropped -0.2 to 9.0%.

Average ordinary time hourly earnings rose 2.4% qoq, 7.4% yoy. The annual rise was the highest since the series began in 1989. All salary and wage rates (including overtime) index rose 3.7% yoy, second highest annual rate since record began in 1993.

Fed to hike 75bps, would Powell indicate slower tightening ahead?

Fed is widely expected to raise interest rate by 75bps again today, to 3.75-4.00%. The main question is whether Chair Jerome Powell would signal that tightening pace is going to slow afterwards.

Currently, there are some expectations that Fed would opt for a smaller hike of 50bps in December, then a 25bps hike in February, and probably another 25bps in March, and pause from there.

However, such hope was somewhat dashed as job data released yesterday showed that the job market could have tightened further. Job openings surged to 10.7m in September, rather than a fall to 9.8m. Ratio of openings to unemployed persons also climbed from 1.7 to 1.9. ISM manufacturing employment also improved.

Overall, there could be some negative market reactions if Powell doesn't deliver any firm message of a pivot.

Here are some suggested readings on Fed:

• FOMC Meeting Preview: Fed Expected to Hike 75bps, But is the Pivot Imminent?
• Will the Fed Confirm Hopes of Slower Tightening?
• Fed Preview: Too Early for a Pivot
• Powell and NFP Release Will Crash USD
• November Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period: Our Expectations Ahead of the November 2nd FOMC Meeting

Elsewhere

Germany trade balance and unemployment, Eurozone PMI manufacturing final will be released in European session. US will also publish ADP private employment today.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9937; (P) 0.9980; (R1) 1.0044; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.0030 minor resistance will suggest that pull back from 1.0146 has completed at 0.9840. Bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.0146. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.0283 projection level. However, break of 0.9840 support will now be a sign of reversal, and bring deeper decline back to 0.9779 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9779 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
21:30	AUD	AiG Performance of Mfg Index Oct	49.6		50.2
21:45	NZD	Employment Change Q3	1.30%	0.50%	0.00%
21:45	NZD	Unemployment Rate Q3	3.30%	3.20%	3.30%
21:45	NZD	Labour Cost Index Q/Q Q3	1.10%	1.00%	1.30%
23:50	JPY	Monetary Base Y/Y Oct	-6.90%	-2.00%	-3.30%
23:50	JPY	BoJ Minutes
00:01	GBP	BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Sep	6.60%	5.50%	5.70%
00:30	AUD	Building Permits M/M Sep	-5.80%	-9.00%	28.10%	23.10%
07:00	EUR	Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Sep		0.5B	1.2B
08:45	EUR	Italy Manufacturing PMI Oct		46.9	48.3
08:50	EUR	France Manufacturing PMI Oct F		47.4	47.4
08:55	EUR	Germany Unemployment Change Oct		15K	14K
08:55	EUR	Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct F		45.7	45.7
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct		46.6	46.6
12:15	USD	ADP Employment Change Oct		198K	208K
14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		-0.2M	2.6M
18:00	USD	Fed Interest Rate Decision		4.00%	3.25%
18:30	USD	FOMC Press Conference