Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.61; (P) 114.87; (R1) 115.01; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 116.33 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 114.14 support. such decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 116.34. Break of 114.14 and will target 113.46 support and below. On the upside, however, above 115.28 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.61) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7164; (P) 0.7193; (R1) 0.7220; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rise would remain in favor as long as 0.7050 support holds. Above 0.7247 will target 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.7050 support will bring retest of 0.6966 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2729; (P) 1.2746; (R1) 1.2769; More...

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 1.2634 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2795 will resume the rise from 1.2448 to 1.2963 resistance next. However, break of 1.2634 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0321; (P) 1.0394; (R1) 1.0432; More....

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.0610 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.0298 low. Decisive break there will confirm larger down trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0936 to 1.0298 from 1.0610 at 1.0216. On the upside, above 1.0435 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.0298 on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rebound from there is still tentatively viewed part of a corrective pattern. That is, larger down trend from 1.2004 (2018) could still extend through 1.0298 to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0667) will argue that the down trend is over, and bring stronger rise back to 1.1149 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8302; (P) 0.8327; (R1) 0.8341; More...

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for retesting 0.8282 low. Sustained break of 0.8276 key long term support will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, above 0.8401 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8476 resistance. Break there will resume the rebound from 0.8282.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen a corrective pattern that should be contained by 0.8276 long term support (2019 low). Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8282 at 0.8747 will affirm this bullish case. However, sustained break of 0.8276 will argue that the long term trend has reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5697; (P) 1.5744; (R1) 1.5780; More...

EUR/AUD's fall form 1.6223 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.5559 support. Break there should indicate that corrective rise from 1.5354 has completed in form of a three wave pattern. Further decline would then be seen back to 1.5250/5354 support zone. On the upside, above 1.6002 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.6223 resistance instead. On the upside, above 1.5837 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5250 low are seen as a corrective pattern. Further extension could be seen and another rise cannot be ruled out. But strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.84; (P) 156.29; (R1) 156.56; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 155.11 resistance should confirm rejection by 158.19 resistance. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 152.88 support, to extend the corrective pattern from 158.19 with another falling leg. However, on the upside, sustained break of 158.19 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 158.19 are seen as developing into a consolidation pattern to up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Downside should be contained by 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10 to bring rebound. Firm break of 158.19 will resume the up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, sustained break of 145.10 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 137.02.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.41; (P) 130.15; (R1) 130.55; More....

EUR/JPY's fall from 133.13 resumed by breaking 130.03 temporary low and intraday bias is back on the downside. outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 134.11 is seen as extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline should be seen to 128.23 support first. Break there will target 127.36 support and possibly first to 126.58 medium term fibonacci level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 131.89 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 134.11 are currently seen as a consolidation pattern only. As long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Market sentiment sinks deeply after Russian President Valdimir Putin declared recognition of independence of the breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine, and ordered troops to enter the regions, which is seen as risk of imminent invasion. Coordinated sanctions on Russia are expected shortly from the US and allies, including the UK, France and Germany. It seems that further escalation is the only way to go.

Asian stocks are in deep red today, which US futures trading heavily lower. On the other hand, Gold and oil prices are both firming up. In the currency markets, Swiss Franc remains the strongest one for the week on risk aversion, while Yen is catching up. Euro is so far the worst performing one, together with Sterling. Others are mixed.

Technically, GBP/CHF's break of 1.2465 support should confirm that rebound from 1.2276 has completed at 1.2598. and deeper fall would be seen back to 1.2776 as risk sentiment deteriorates. To follow up, we'd now look at 155.11 support in GBP/JPY. Firm break there will suggest that rise from 152.88 has finished at 158.04. Deeper selloff could then be seen back to 152.88 and possibly through to 148.94. Both pairs could be indicative of how desperate the safe haven flows are.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.93%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.95%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.36%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.83%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0095 at 0.199.

Gold breaks 1900, upside acceleration ahead?

Gold's rally resumes today and hits as high as 1913.79 so far, breaking 1900 handle. It's now eyeing 1916.30 resistance. Break there will extend current rise from 1682.60 to 100% projection of 1682.60 to 1877.05 from 1752.12 at 1946.57.

Also, it should be pointed out that, firstly, sustained break of 1916.30 should confirm that whole correction from 2074.84 (2020 high) has completed at 1682.60, after defending 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84. Secondly, sustained break of 1946.57 would likely bring upside acceleration.

In this case, Gold could be quickly shot up to 161.8% projection at 2066.74, which is close to 2074.84 high.

WTI oil rises on geo tension, ready for breakout to 100?

WTI crude oil edged higher today and it's now pressing 95.98 resistance. Any deterioration in geopolitical situation could forcefully push WTI through this resistance to resume the medium term up trend. Next target will be 100 psychological level.

Rejection by 95.98 will extend the corrective pattern from 95.98 with another falling leg, possibly back to 89.23 support. But 88.66 support should provide the floor in this case, to set up the range for sideway trading.

Fed Bowman support rate hike in March, but size depends on data

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said yesterday in a speech, " I support raising the federal funds rate at our next meeting in March and, if the economy evolves as I expect, additional rate increases will be appropriate in the coming months."

However, "I will be watching the data closely to judge the appropriate size of an increase at the March meeting," she added.

"In the coming months, we need to take the next step, which is to begin reducing the Fed's balance sheet by ceasing the reinvestment of maturing securities already held in the portfolio," she added. "Returning the balance sheet to an appropriate and manageable level will be an important additional step toward addressing high inflation."

Looking ahead

Germany Ifo business climate is the main focus in European session while UK will release public sector net borrowing. US consumer confidence will catch most attention later in the day, as house price index and PMIs will be published too.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.41; (P) 130.15; (R1) 130.55; More....

EUR/JPY's fall from 133.13 resumed by breaking 130.03 temporary low and intraday bias is back on the downside. outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 134.11 is seen as extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline should be seen to 128.23 support first. Break there will target 127.36 support and possibly first to 126.58 medium term fibonacci level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 131.89 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 134.11 are currently seen as a consolidation pattern only. As long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Economic Indicators Update

WTI crude oil edged higher today and it's now pressing 95.98 resistance. Any deterioration in geopolitical situation could forcefully push WTI through this resistance to resume the medium term up trend. Next target will be 100 psychological level.

Rejection by 95.98 will extend the corrective pattern from 95.98 with another falling leg, possibly back to 89.23 support. But 88.66 support should provide the floor in this case, to set up the range for sideway trading.