Sample Category Title

General trend

• NZ 2-yr yield rose ahead of RBNZ meeting, later reversed rise amid COVID news and decline in rate hike probability.
• NZD declines as NZ reported first COVID case since Feb.
• Little initial bond market impact seen from RBA minutes.
• S&P ASX 200 lags amid focus on earnings and ex-dividends [Ex-dividends weigh on Financials index, BHP declines ahead of earnings report; Travel-sensitive firms decline amid NZ COVID news].
• Nikkei pared the opening gain [TOPIX Marine Transportation index rises over 3%, Iron & Steel and Air Transportation indices lag].
• Shanghai Composite ended morning trading lower by ~0.5% [Consumer and IT indices decline]; the index extended drop during the afternoon session.
• Hang Seng has remained lower [TECH index drops over 2%].

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened -0.1%.
• (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) JULY MEETING MINUTES: Delta variant has interrupted the recovery, prepared to act in response to further bad news, reiterates don't expect rate hike conditions to be met util 2024.
• STO.AU Reports H1 Net +$354M v -$289M y/y; EBITDAX $1.2B v $995M y/y; $2.04B v $1.67B y/y; Affirms FY production.
• SGM.AU Reports FY21 (A$) underlying Net 284.1M v -58.1M y/y; underlying EBITDA 579.9M v 144.9M y/y; Rev 5.92B v 4.91B y/y.
• (NZ) New Zealand to investigate COVID case in Auckland (1st case since Feb).

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +0.5%.
• (JP) Japan Govt confirms to seek an extension of coronavirus emergency in Tokyo through Sept 12th, to extend state of emergency to 7 additional prefectures.
• (JP) Japan Econ Min Nishimura: COVID spreading at a pace not seen before, will ask shopping malls to restrict entry.

Korea

• Kospi opened -0.0%.
• (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) sells KRW210B v KRW300B indicated in 6-month Monetary Stabilization Bonds (MSB) avg yield: 0.85% v 0.76% prior.
• 034220.KR To invest KRW3.3T on small-midsize OLED facilities between Aug 2021 and Mar 2024.

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened -0.2%; Shanghai Composite opened -0.2%.
• (CN) China Market Regulator (SAMR) Has issued draft rules on banning unfair competition in the internet sector of the economy.
• (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.4765 v 6.4717 prior.
• (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY10B in 7-day reverse repos v CNY10B in 7-day reverse repos prior; Net CNY0B v Net CNY0B prior.
• (CN) China Sec Journal: Analysts believe that China PBOC is likely to cut RRR during Q4.
• (CN) Beijing Municipal Education Commission reiterated target to double its reduction policy.

Other

• (SG) SINGAPORE JULY NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS M/M: -0.9% V -1.7%E; Y/Y: 12.7% V 12.0%E; Electronic Exports Y/Y: 15.0% v 25.5% prior.

North America

• (US) Fed’s Rosengren (non-voter): I believe substantial further progress standard on inflation has been met - CNBC interview.
• UMC Said to be increasing prices by ~10% in Nov, would mark the 4th increase in prices during 2021 – Press.
• (CN) US SEC chairman Gensler issues most direct warning to date about risks of investing in China companies.
• (US) Said that the US will advise coronavirus vaccine boosters to be taken 8 months after vaccination, could offer boosters to nonimmune compromised individuals in mid-Sept. - NYT.

Levels as of 01:15ET

• Hang Seng -1.0%; Shanghai Composite -0.9%; Kospi -0.7%; Nikkei225 -0.0%; ASX 200 -1.1%.
• Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.2%; Nasdaq100 -0.1%, Dax -0.3%; FTSE100 -0.2%.
• EUR 1.1781-1.1767; JPY 109.36-109.21; AUD 0.7341-0.7304; NZD 0.7031-0.6944.
• Commodity Futures: Gold -0.1% at $1,788/oz; Crude Oil 0.00% at $67.05/brl; Copper -0.0% at $4.33/lb.

UK unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.7% in the three months to June, down from 4.8%, better than expectation of 4.8%. That's still 0.8% higher than before the pandemic, but -0.2% lower than the previous quarter. Employment rate was estimated at 75.1%, up 0.3% by the quarter, but still at -1.5% lower than before the pandemic.

ONS said: "The quarterly increase in employment was mainly driven by an increase in the number of full-time workers, which reached its highest level since before the start of the pandemic. While the number of people working part-time has decreased during the pandemic, in April to June 2021 there was the first quarterly increase in people working part-time since February to April 2020".

Average earnings including bonus rose 8.8% 3moy, versus expectation of 8.7%. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 7.4% 3moy, matched expectations. In July, claimant count dropped -7.8k.

Full release here.

New Zealand Dollar tumbles sharply today after the country reported one coronavirus case in the community in Auckland. The development suddenly bring some uncertainty back to RBNZ rate hike tomorrow. Overnight indexed swaps show inflation probability of a hike falling below 90%, down from 100% priced in before the news. NZD could suffer rather heavy selloff if RBNZ fails to deliver the rate hike expectation that it the markets up.

Some previews on RBNZ:

• RBNZ Preview – Raising Rate as Least Regrets Option
• RBNZ to Lift Rates, What to Expect
• Currency Pair of the Week: NZD/USD

The turn around in NZD is particular apparent against the also very week AUD. AUD/NZD is now back above 1.05 handle after hitting 1.0416 earlier in the day. Technically, the fall from 1.0944, as the third leg of the decline from 1.1042, is still in favor to resume sooner or later as long as 1.0597 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.0416 will target 100% projection of 1.0402 to 1.0415 from 1.0944 at 1.0317. However, firm break of 1.0597 resistance should confirm near term reversal and target 1.0811 resistance next.

At the same time, should selling in NZD take off, NZD/USD would likely break through 0.6879 support to resume the fall from 0.7463. NZD/JPY would also break through 75.25 support to resume the decline from 80.17.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.71; (P) 151.46; (R1) 151.99; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Rebound from 148.43 should have completed at 153.42 already. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 148.43 support first. On the upside, break of 153.28 resistance is now needed to indicate resumption of rebound from 148.43. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus remains on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, sustained break of 149.03 support, however, will indicate rejection by 156.59. Fall from 156.05 would be at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94. Deeper fall would be seen back to 142.71 resistance turned support first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.30; (P) 128.87; (R1) 129.24; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 134.11 is resuming and should target 127.07 resistance turned support next. That is close to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 126.58. On the upside, above 129.12 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, and open up the case for retesting 114.42.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8490; (P) 0.8502; (R1) 0.8521; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral first. Outlook stays mildly bearish as long as 0.8556 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8448 will resume the whole decline from 0.9799, to retest 0.8276 key long term support level. However, break of 0.8556 will bring stronger rebound back to 0.8668 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8718 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8668 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6007; (P) 1.6046; (R1) 1.6093; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside for retesting 1.6182 high. Firm break there will resume the choppy rise from 1.5250 towards 1.6827 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6037 minor support will turn intraday bias remains neutral first. Further sustained break of 55 day EMA will argue that choppy corrective rebound from 1.5250 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.5614 structural support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We'd tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5614 support will indicate that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0714; (P) 1.0767; (R1) 1.0798; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for 1.0715 support first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.1149, towards 1.0505 low. On the upside, above 1.0770 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 1.0839 resistance will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 1.0715 at 1.0881.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0505 (2020 low) should have completed at 1.1149 already. The three-wave corrective structure argues that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not over yet. Medium term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 1.0865) holds. Break of 1.0505 low would be seen at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1762; (P) 1.1782; (R1) 1.1795; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the upside, as rebound from 1.1705 short term bottom would target 1.1907 resistance. Firm break there will suggest that fall from 1.2265, as well as consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. However, below 1.1705 will turn focus back to 1.1602/1703 key support zone again.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3820; (P) 1.3849; (R1) 1.3870; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3982 is extending. Outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 1.4240 could have completed with three waves down to 1.3570. On the upside, break of 1.3982 will resume the rise from 1.3570 to retest 1.4248 high. However, break of 1.3766 support will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 1.3570.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3482 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 1.1409 should still continue. Decisive break of 1.4376 resistance will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.3482 support will argue that the rise from 1.1409 has completed. GBP/USD would then be seen in another leg of long term range pattern between 1.1409 and 1.4376. Deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.2493, and even below.