Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6580; (P) 0.6604; (R1) 0.6638; More...

AUD/USD retreated after touching 0.6627 resistance and intraday bias stays neutral. Firm break of 0.6627 will suggest that pullback from 0.6706 has completed as correction, after drawing support from 55 D EMA (now at 0.6550). That will keep the larger rally from 0.5913 alive and bring retest of 0.6706 high. However, on the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will confirm rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper fall to 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403).

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3900; (P) 1.3918; (R1) 1.3939; More...

USD/CAD is staying in consolidations below 1.3957 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.3957 will resume the corrective rebound from 1.3538. But upside should be limited by 1.4014 cluster resistance to bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3880) will bring deeper fall back to 1.3725 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017) holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 (2025 high) at 1.3069. However, sustained break of 1.4014 will argue that fall from 1.4791 has completed, and bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 1.4312.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9324; (P) 0.9357; (R1) 0.9378; More...

EUR/CHF retreated after brief spike to 0.9369 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the upside, above 0.9369 will target 0.9394 resistance. Firm break there should confirm that the pullback from 0.9452 has completed, and bring retest of this resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9311 will resume the fall from 0.9452 to 0.9265 support.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8718; (P) 0.8732; (R1) 0.8740; More...

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidations below 0.8750 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8694 support holds. Firm break of 0.8752 will resume larger rally to 61.8% projection of 0.8354 to 0.8752 from 0.8631 at 0.8877, which is close to 0.8867 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.8694 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8631 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8533) will argue that the pattern has completed and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7689; (P) 1.7769; (R1) 1.7824; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.7929. On the upside, above 1.7929 will resume the rebound from 1.7588 to retest 1.8155. However, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.7245 to 1.8155 at 1.7593, will resume the fall from 1.8155 to 1.7245 resistance, as part of the corrective pattern from 1.8554 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.39; (P) 199.09; (R1) 199.59; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside. Fall from 201.24 short term top should continue to 197.93 support. Firm break there will argue that whole rise from 184.35 has completed too and target 195.01 support next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 200.49 support holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 173.17; (P) 173.80; (R1) 174.20; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 175.03 short term bottom is in progress for 55 D EMA (now at 172.24). Sustained break there will argue that whole five-wave rally from 154.77 has also completed. On the upside, above 174.39 will turn bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 175.03 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 from 154.77 (2025 low) at 186.31. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will delay this bullish case, bring deeper pullback to 169.69 support first.

Trading was relatively subdued in Asia today, with China and Hong Kong closed for holidays and little reaction seen across the rest of the region. Equity markets were mixed, reflecting a cautious tone after Wall Street managed to end slightly higher overnight despite a fresh government shutdown in the US.

Gold edged to another record high but with far less momentum than in recent sessions. The lack of follow-through reflects both subdued regional liquidity and some restraint among investors, who are weighing the potential fallout of the US fiscal standoff.

The US government formally shut down much of its operations on Wednesday after President Donald Trump and Congressional leaders failed to agree on a short-term funding deal through November 21. This marks the 15th shutdown since 1981, though markets typically treat such events as temporary and relatively immaterial.

This episode, however, carries additional risk. Trump suggested his administration could use the shutdown to push broader policy actions, including cuts to government benefits for “large numbers of people.” That raises the possibility of a mini-labor market shock, which markets cannot entirely dismiss.

Currency markets were livelier, with Yen leading gains for the week. Today’s Tankan survey signaled resilience in large manufacturers despite tariff headwinds, lending credibility to speculation that the BoJ will resume rate hikes later this year.

Aussie was the next strongest, though it is consolidating after sharp gains earlier this week. Reports around China’s state-run iron ore buyer CMRG briefly unsettled markets, with Bloomberg suggesting it had instructed steelmakers to halt new purchases from BHP. But Mysteel disputed the claims, calling the report “not true,” leaving traders uncertain.

At the bottom, Dollar is currently the weakest performer, though still above last week’s lows. Loonie was the next weakest, while European majors and the Kiwi held mid-pack.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.92%. Hong Kong and China are on holiday. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.63%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.003 at 1.648. Overnight, DOW rose 0.18%. S&P 500 rose 0.41%. NASDAQ rose 0.30%. 10-year yield rose 0.007 to 4.418.

Japan's Tankan shows resilience, supports BoJ tightening outlook

Japan’s Q3 Tankan survey showed large manufacturers growing more confident, with the index rising from 13 to 14, in line with expectations and the highest since Q4 2024. While the manufacturing outlook held steady at 12, suggesting some softening ahead, sentiment remains resilient despite trade headwinds.

Non-manufacturing confidence also stayed firm, with the index unchanged at 34, beating forecasts, and the outlook improving to 28 from 27.

Large firms signaled robust investment plans, projecting a 12.5% increase in capital expenditure for the fiscal year to March 2026, up from June’s forecast of 11.5%.

The results suggest Japan’s economy is weathering tariff pressures and steady domestic demand continues to support activity. For the Bank of Japan, the data bolster expectations that further tightening is coming — the debate is less about if and more about when policymakers will move.

Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 48.5, weak demand from China and US

Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted further in September, with the PMI finalized at 48.5, down from August’s 49.7. S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes said the sector ended Q3 “on a weaker note,” as output and new orders declined at a faster pace, driven by softer demand across key markets such as China and the drag from US tariffs.

Weaker demand weighed on business confidence, leading firms to scale back activity. Employment expanded at the slowest pace since February, while purchasing activity dropped at the second-steepest rate since early 2024. The cautious stance underscores concern that the sector may “struggle to see much growth in the near term.”

Price dynamics offered some relief, with cost pressures “less pronounced” than earlier in the year. Still, selling prices rose at a "historically strong pace" as firms sought to protect margins.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 173.17; (P) 173.80; (R1) 174.20; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 175.03 short term bottom is in progress for 55 D EMA (now at 172.24). Sustained break there will argue that whole five-wave rally from 154.77 has also completed. On the upside, above 174.39 will turn bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 175.03 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 from 154.77 (2025 low) at 186.31. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will delay this bullish case, bring deeper pullback to 169.69 support first.

The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for Gold (XAUUSD) indicates that the cycle starting from the September 18, 2025 low is unfolding as a five-wave impulse. From that low, wave (i) advanced to $3647.32, followed by a corrective wave (ii) that concluded at $3631.94. Gold then surged in wave (iii) to $3759.16, with a subsequent dip in wave (iv) ending at $3736.45. The final leg, wave (v), peaked at $3791.08, completing wave ((i)) on a higher degree.

A corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) reached $3716.41, unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. From the wave ((i)) high, wave (a) declined to $3750.29, wave (b) rallied to $3779.41, and wave (c) dropped to $3716.41, finalizing wave ((ii)). Gold has since resumed its upward trajectory in wave ((iii)), reaching $3871.73, with a minor pullback in wave ((iv)) concluding at $3792.88. As long as the pivot at $3716.41 remains intact, expect Gold to continue its ascent.

Gold (XAUUSD) – 60 Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart:

XAUUSD – Elliott Wave Technical Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKdzGnoMUAE

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a recovery wave above 1.3350 and 1.3400.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.3475 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD is struggling to clear the 1.1750 and 1.1780 resistance levels.
• Gold extended gains to a new record high above $3,870.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound found support near 1.3320 and recovered versus the US Dollar. GBP/USD climbed above the 1.3350 and 1.3400 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair managed to recover above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3726 swing high to the 1.3323 low. However, the pair faces many hurdles on the upside.

Immediate resistance could be 1.3470. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3475 on the same chart. A clear move above the trend line could send the pair toward the 1.3525 resistance.

The 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour) are near 1.3520 to act as a barrier along with the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3726 swing high to the 1.3323 low.

A close above 1.3525 could open the doors for a fresh increase. If not, GBP/USD could decline again. On the downside, there is key support at 1.3400.

The next area of interest might be 1.3350. The main support could be 1.3320. Any more losses might increase selling pressure and send the pair toward 1.3250.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair attempted to recover but the bears are still active below the 1.1800 pivot level.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for Sep 2025 – Forecast 49.5, versus 49.5 previous.
• UK Manufacturing PMI for Sep 2025 – Forecast 46.2, versus 46.2 previous.
• US ISM Manufacturing Index for Sep 2025 – Forecast 49.0, versus 48.7 previous.