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As shown on today’s XAU/USD chart, the price of gold has risen above $3,530 per ounce for the first time in history.

In 2025, the increase in gold prices has been driven by sustained central bank purchases, asset diversification, steady demand for so-called safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as general dollar weakness.

At the beginning of September, bullish sentiment may have been reinforced by:

→ Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a nearly 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed meeting on 17 September. Gold, as a non-yielding asset, is typically seen as a beneficiary of low interest rates.

→ News from China, where, in the presence of leaders from many countries, the establishment of a SCO development bank was announced. Market participants may have interpreted this as a new source of geopolitical risk and as pressure on the dollar’s status. Donald Trump has already claimed that the summit in China represents a conspiracy against the United States.

Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart

Looking at gold’s price on 11 August, we:

→ Drew descending lines forming a red channel.

→ Highlighted an important support zone in the form of a bullish Fair Value Gap (marked as FVG1 in purple).

New data allows for the following observations:

→ FVG1 acted as support in the second half of August.

→ The red channel lines resemble a large-scale bullish flag pattern within a long-term uptrend, underscored by the EMA.

By using the July and August extremes, we can trace the outlines of an upward trajectory (shown in blue). The price is currently near the upper boundary, which could trigger a pullback, given overbought signals on the RSI indicator and investors’ potential desire to take profits after more than a 6% rise over the past 10 days.

From a bullish perspective, a possible pullback target could be the potential support area formed by:

→ FVG2. Although it does not strictly conform to construction rules, it reflects an imbalance in favour of buyers that led to a sharp price rally. Bears attempted to resist around the psychological $3,500 level but were defeated.

→ Level C, representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the A→B impulse.

It should be noted that the upward impulse has not yet been exhausted, as indicated by the green lines.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 197.94; (P) 199.10; (R1) 199.89; More...

GBP/JPY failed to break through 200.26 resistance and retreated sharply. But downside is contained above 197.93 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rise is still in favor. Firm break of 200.26 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 184.35, and that from 180.00. Further rally should then be seen to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. On the downside, however, break of 197.93 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 195.01 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 172.17; (P) 172.79; (R1) 173.33; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 173.87 high. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 154.77, and target a retest on 175.41 key resistance. On the downside, however, break of 171.09 will turn bias to the downside for 169.69 support, and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 will delay this bullish case, and probably extend the correction from 175.41 with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8651; (P) 0.8682; (R1) 0.8722; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the upside for retesting 0.8752 resistance. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 0.8221. Next target is 0.8867 fibonacci level. For now, further rise is expected as long as 0.8636 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8513) will argue that the pattern has completed and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7823; (P) 1.7879; (R1) 1.7911; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.7245 to 1.8155 at 1.7807 should confirm that whole rise from 1.7245 has completed. Corrective pattern from 1.8554 should then be in its third leg. Further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7593. On the upside, break of 1.7979 resistance will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.8155 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9354; (P) 0.9368; (R1) 0.9382; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged at corrective pattern from 0.9218 might have completed with three waves up to 0.9452 already. Further decline is in favor as long as 0.9403 resistance holds. On the downside, below 0.9317 will target 0.9265 support first. Firm break there should resume larger fall to retest 0.9204 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.9403 will dampen this view and bring stronger rise back to 0.9452 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3748; (P) 1.3781; (R1) 1.3817; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 1.3813 resistance will retain near term bullishness that rebound from 1.3538 is still in progress. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.3923 next. On the downside, decisive break of 1.3720 will argue that the corrective pattern from 1.3538 has already completed at 1.3923. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.3574 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017) holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6483; (P) 0.6521; (R1) 0.6558; More...

AUD/USD's break of 0.6504 support suggest that rebound from 0.6413 has completed at 0.6559. Corrective pattern from 0.6624 is extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 0.6413 support, and possibly below. On the upside, though, firm break of 0.6567 should confirm that the corrective pattern has completed and larger rally is ready to resume through 0.6624.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.28; (P) 148.11; (R1) 149.17; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Pullback from 150.90 could have completed after drawing support from 55 D EMA (now at 147.06). Further rise would be seen to 150.90, and then 151.22 fibonacci level. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, however, break of 146.65 support will resume the decline from 150.90 through 146.20 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8011; (P) 0.8036; (R1) 0.8072; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.7984 will resume the fall from 0.8170 to 0.7910 support first, and then retest of 0.7871 low. However, break of 0.8103 resistance will turn bias to the upside to resume the rebound from 0.7871 through 0.8170.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.