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Ethereum’s price fluctuations are showing strong bullish momentum, approaching the psychological threshold of $5,000:

→ since the beginning of August, ETH/USD has risen by approximately 25%;

→ since the start of summer – by more than 80%.

Bullish Drivers in 2025

This year, market optimism is being shaped by:

→ the large-scale upgrade known as Pectra;

→ improvements in the US regulatory environment (such as the approval of a stablecoin bill and permission for pension funds to invest in cryptocurrencies);

→ weakening of the US dollar (Fed Chair Powell’s Friday speech triggered a fresh bearish impulse for the DXY dollar index).

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD

Last month, we noted that:

→ ETH/USD price movements had formed an ascending channel (highlighted in blue);

→ we suggested that Ethereum’s steep price rally might slow down as the price approached the channel’s upper boundary (which acted as resistance).

Indeed, since then, the price developed a bullish flag pattern (marked R-S). However, the uptrend soon resumed with renewed strength, with:

→ a steeper upward trajectory emerging (shown with purple lines);

→ the upper boundary of the blue channel switching roles to act as support.

Can ETH/USD Break Through the 5000 Level?

Given the inertia typical of financial market trends, it is difficult to imagine the current strong bullish momentum reversing into bearish action in the near term. The price continues to follow a steeper upward trajectory, while the $4,400–$4,600 zone (highlighted in green) may act as support, as the market advanced through this level with relative ease – a sign of imbalance in favour of buyers.

However, the ETH/USD chart is showing signs of growing bearish pressure:

→ a cascade of divergences on the RSI indicator;

→ long upper wicks (indicated by an arrow) on recent candlesticks;

→ a potential bearish double top formation (A-B).

It appears that the $5,000 mark is acting as psychological resistance, preventing the price from reaching the upper boundary of the purple channel. Therefore, even if an attempt to break above $5k occurs, it could trigger stronger selling pressure.

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AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from 0.6415. NZD/USD is also rising and could aim for a move above 0.5900 in the short term.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6415 and moved higher against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6440 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is slowly moving higher above 0.5830.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5870 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6415. The Aussie Dollar started a significant increase above 0.6425 against the US Dollar to enter a short-term positive zone.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6440 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6568 swing high to the 0.6415 low. The pair even surpassed 0.6470 and settled above the 50-hour simple moving average.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level at 0.6490. The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 0.6520.

An upside break above 0.6520 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major target is near the 0.6540 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward 0.6565. If there is no close above 0.6490, the pair might start a fresh decline.

Immediate support sits near the 0.6470 level. The next area of interest could be 0.6440. If there is a downside break below 0.6440 support, the pair could extend its decline toward 0.6410. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6350.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen, the pair followed AUD/USD. The New Zealand Dollar formed a base above the 0.5800 level and started a recovery wave against the US Dollar.

The pair climbed above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.5830. There was a close above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5990 swing high to the 0.5830 low.

However, the bears are now active near the 0.5870 zone and a major bearish trend line. The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is back above 60, signaling a positive bias. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near 0.5870.

The next major hurdle for buyers could be near the 50% Fib retracement at 0.5895. A clear move above 0.5895 might even push the pair toward 0.5910. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.5945 pivot zone in the coming sessions.

On the downside, there is support forming near the 0.5830 zone. If there is a downside break below 0.5830, the pair might slide toward 0.5800. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD into a bearish zone to 0.5740.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.21; (P) 198.87; (R1) 199.41; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 200.26. While another fall cannot be ruled out, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 195.01 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 2002.6 will resume the whole rise from 184.35 to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.82; (P) 172.25; (R1) 172.67; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Overall price actions from 173.87 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the downside, below 170.94 support will bring deeper fall to 169.69 and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 172.99 will bring retest of 173.87.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break of 154.77 will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 170.23) will delay this bullish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8649; (P) 0.8660; (R1) 0.8681; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays mildly on the upside at this point. Corrective pattern form 0.8752 could have completed with three waves to 0.8595. Further rise should be seen to retest 0.8752 high next. On the downside, below 0.8638 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600 will indicate near term bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8506.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8508) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.8030; (P) 1.8057; (R1) 1.8085; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 1.8155. Further rally is expected as long as 1.7942 support holds. Above 1.8155 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. Sustained break there will target 100% projection at 1.8520, which is close to 1.8554 high. However, break of 1.7942 will bring deeper fall back to 1.7671 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9375; (P) 0.9389; (R1) 0.9406; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.9400 will bring retest of 0.9452. Firm break there will rebound whole rebound from 0.9218. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9366) will argue that the rebound from 0.9128 has completed as a corrective move. Deeper fall would then be seen to 0.9265 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1622; (P) 1.1683; (R1) 1.1782; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside as rise from 1.1390 is in progress. The corrective pattern from 1.1829 should have completed with three waves down to 1.1390. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.1829 high first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.1582 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.08; (P) 147.43; (R1) 148.28; More...

USD/JPY is staying in range above 146.20 support and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, firm break of 146.20 will resume the fall from 150.90. Also, that would argue that rebound from 139.87 has completed as a corrective move to 150.90. Deeper fall should be seen to 142.667 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 148.76 will bring another rise to retest 150.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3431; (P) 1.3487; (R1) 1.3584; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Overall, price actions from 1.3787 high are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 1.3594 will resume the rebound from 1.3140 to retest 1.3787 high. Firm break there will resume the larger up trend. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3389 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3073) holds, even in case of deep pullback.