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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8646; (P) 0.8695; (R1) 0.8726; More...

EUR/GBP's corrective pattern form 0.8752 is extending and intraday bias stays neutral. Deeper decline might be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600. On the upside, firm break of 0.8752 will resume the rise from 0.8354 towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8493) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7830; (P) 1.7888; (R1) 1.7935; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.7972 resistance should resume the whole rally from 1.7245 through 1.8094 to 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. On the downside, below 1.7671 will bring deeper fall back to 1.7459 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9352; (P) 0.9380; (R1) 0.9430; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside with focus on 0.9428 resistance Decisive break there should confirm that corrective pattern from 0.9445 has completed. Rise from 0.9128 should then be ready to resume to 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. On the downside, below 0.9388 minor support will delay the bullish case turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside position should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

After a week of volatility, the forex markets settled into a quieter rhythm during the Asian session on Friday. Swiss Franc stabilized somewhat, but remains the weakest performer this week after a heavy blow from Washington.

Switzerland’s diplomatic efforts fell short as the harsh 39% US tariff on Swiss imports officially kicked in. The import levy is among the highest imposed under Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” regime. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter lamented the impact on industry, calling it “an extraordinarily difficult situation.” Despite intense eleventh-hour negotiations, no compromise was reached, and Swiss officials now say a resolution will take more time.

Nevertheless, talks continue behind closed doors, with Swiss officials offering new concessions in hopes of tariff relief. “Talks are already underway based on the new offer,” Keller-Sutter said, adding that while the US is a key partner, “not at any price.” It's also estimated that the new tariffs could wipe out US market access for many Swiss manufacturers, trimming GDP by 0.3% to 0.6% over the next year.

On a more positive note, Japan appears to have secured corrective action from the US after a dispute over double tariffs. Tokyo’s lead negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said U.S. officials admitted to “a regrettable error” and would amend the presidential order. Duties already collected on Japanese goods since August 7 will be refunded, and the auto tariff will be formally lowered to 15%—as originally agreed in last month’s deal.

As the week nears its end, Sterling is still leading the pack, supported by BoE's hawkish rate cut yesterday. With BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill scheduled to speak later today, markets may get a clearer sense of internal debate within the MPC—and whether a follow-up cut later this year is truly on the table.

Aussie and Kiwi follow behind in strength, while Swiss Franc is the weakest, trailed by Dollar and Yen. Euro and Loonie sit in the middle of the pack as markets await the next catalyst.

BoJ Opinions: 2–3 months needed to Gauge Tariff impacts, year-end hike possible

BoJ’s July 30–31 Summary of Opinions revealed a broadly cautious stance on future policy moves, with members emphasizing the need for more data before shifting course.

Despite the recent US–Japan tariff agreement, board members reaffirmed that Japan’s baseline outlook has not improved. "Japan's economic growth will moderate and the improvement in underlying CPI inflation will be sluggish temporarily,” one policymaker said. Accordingly, the consensus was to maintain current interest rates and financial accommodation, while monitoring trade risks and external demand.

“At least two to three more months are needed to assess the impact of US tariff policy,” one member stated, noting that the direction of US monetary policy and exchange rates could also shift materially depending on inflation and labor conditions.

Still, the door is now open for rate hikes later this year. The Summary suggests that if incoming data shows resilience in the US economy—and Japan avoids major trade fallout—the BoJ could resume policy normalization as soon as year-end.

“It may be possible for the Bank to exit from its current wait-and-see stance, perhaps as early as the end of this year,” one policymaker said. That prospect keeps the door open to further hikes in late 2025 if inflation and growth align.

Bitcoin and Ethereum rally as Trump order unlocks 401(k) access to crypto

Crypto markets firmed after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening investment options in retirement accounts. The policy change clears a path for cryptocurrencies, private equity, and real estate to be included in 401(k) plans, potentially diverting large-scale institutional capital into the digital asset space.

The USD 12 trillion defined contribution market has largely avoided exposure to alternative assets. Trump’s order seeks to reverse that by reducing litigation exposure and regulatory complexity for fund managers. “My Administration will relieve the regulatory burdens and litigation risk that impede American workers’ retirement accounts from achieving competitive returns,” Trump stated. Industry participants see this as a long-awaited greenlight to diversify away from traditional stocks and bonds.

Bitcoin bounces this week but stays well below 123,231 resistance. Near term consolidations could extend. But outlook remains bearish so far with a confluence of support intact, including 112,013 resistance turned support, 55 D EMA, and near term rising channel. Current up trend is expected to resume to 61.8% projection of 98,148 to 123,231 from 111,889 at 127,390 next.

Ethereum's breach of 3,940.08 resistance suggests that recent rally from 1,382.55 is resuming. Next target is 4,108.15 key resistance. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 2,110.58 to 3,940.08 from 3,353.16 at 4,483.19 next. In case of retreat, outlook will stay bullish as long as 3,353.16 support holds.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9352; (P) 0.9380; (R1) 0.9430; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside with focus on 0.9428 resistance Decisive break there should confirm that corrective pattern from 0.9445 has completed. Rise from 0.9128 should then be ready to resume to 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. On the downside, below 0.9388 minor support will delay the bullish case turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside position should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

The EURUSD pair exhibits an incomplete bullish sequence originating from the September 2022 low, targeting 1.191. The rally from this low unfolds as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((1)) concluded at 1.1275, followed by a pullback in wave ((2)) that ended at 1.0177. The pair has since resumed its upward trajectory in wave ((3)), reaching 1.183. Subsequent pullback in wave ((4)) completed at 1.139, as illustrated in the 1-hour chart. The internal structure of wave ((4)) formed a zigzag pattern. From the peak of wave ((3)), wave (A) declined to 1.1554. Wave (B) rallied to 1.1788, and wave (C) descended to 1.1388, finalizing wave ((4)).

The pair has now turned higher in wave ((5)), but it must break above the wave ((3)) high at 1.183 to eliminate the possibility of a double correction. From the wave ((4)) low, wave 1 peaked at 1.1588, and wave 2 retraced to 1.1524. The pair is nesting higher in wave 2 with wave ((i)) ended at 1.1699 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 1.1608. As long as the pivot low at 1.1388 holds, dips should attract buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing sequences, supporting further upside potential.

EURUSD – 60 Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart:

EURUSD – Elliott Wave Technical Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrPJNuZXwug

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY declined below the 148.00 and 147.00 levels.
• It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 148.75 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD recovered losses and climbed above 1.1620.
• GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase above the 1.3350 resistance.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar trimmed gains from the 150.90 zone against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY declined below the 148.00 and 147.50 support levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair even traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 148.75. There was a move below the 146.80 level, and the pair tested 146.60. A low was formed at 146.61 and the pair is now consolidating losses above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

The pair is still below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and faces hurdles. On the upside, the pair now faces resistance near the 148.00 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

The next key resistance sits near the 148.50 level. A close above the 148.50 level could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 150.00 resistance, above which the bulls could aim for a move toward 152.00.

On the downside, immediate support is near the 146.60 level. The next key support sits near 146.20. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 145.50 support zone.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair started a recovery wave, and the bulls might soon aim for a move toward the 1.1780 level.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• Canada’s Net Employment Change for July 2025 – Forecast 13.5K, versus 83.1K previous.
• Canada’s Unemployment Rate for July 2025 - Forecast 7%, versus 6.9% previous.

Crypto markets firmed after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening investment options in retirement accounts. The policy change clears a path for cryptocurrencies, private equity, and real estate to be included in 401(k) plans, potentially diverting large-scale institutional capital into the digital asset space.

The USD 12 trillion defined contribution market has largely avoided exposure to alternative assets. Trump’s order seeks to reverse that by reducing litigation exposure and regulatory complexity for fund managers. “My Administration will relieve the regulatory burdens and litigation risk that impede American workers’ retirement accounts from achieving competitive returns,” Trump stated. Industry participants see this as a long-awaited greenlight to diversify away from traditional stocks and bonds.

Bitcoin bounces this week but stays well below 123,231 resistance. Near term consolidations could extend. But outlook remains bearish so far with a confluence of support intact, including 112,013 resistance turned support, 55 D EMA, and near term rising channel. Current up trend is expected to resume to 61.8% projection of 98,148 to 123,231 from 111,889 at 127,390 next.

Ethereum's breach of 3,940.08 resistance suggests that recent rally from 1,382.55 is resuming. Next target is 4,108.15 key resistance. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 2,110.58 to 3,940.08 from 3,353.16 at 4,483.19 next. In case of retreat, outlook will stay bullish as long as 3,353.16 support holds.

BoJ’s July 30–31 Summary of Opinions revealed a broadly cautious stance on future policy moves, with members emphasizing the need for more data before shifting course.

Despite the recent US–Japan tariff agreement, board members reaffirmed that Japan’s baseline outlook has not improved. "Japan's economic growth will moderate and the improvement in underlying CPI inflation will be sluggish temporarily,” one policymaker said. Accordingly, the consensus was to maintain current interest rates and financial accommodation, while monitoring trade risks and external demand.

“At least two to three more months are needed to assess the impact of US tariff policy,” one member stated, noting that the direction of US monetary policy and exchange rates could also shift materially depending on inflation and labor conditions.

Still, the door is now open for rate hikes later this year. The Summary suggests that if incoming data shows resilience in the US economy—and Japan avoids major trade fallout—the BoJ could resume policy normalization as soon as year-end.

“It may be possible for the Bank to exit from its current wait-and-see stance, perhaps as early as the end of this year,” one policymaker said. That prospect keeps the door open to further hikes in late 2025 if inflation and growth align.

Full BoJ summary of opinions here.

Key insights from the week that was.

After a bumper run of data, local markets were provided space for reflection this week. The main release was the household spending indicator which, upon the cessation of the retail sales release last week, is now the sole official indicator of consumer spending. In June, nominal spending growth was on trend, rising 0.5% for a 1.0% quarterly gain. After adjusting for inflation, real spending increased 0.7% in Q2 following an upwardly revised 0.5% lift in Q1.

Our Westpac-DataX Consumer Panel corroborates this signal of firming momentum, indicating real spending grew by a solid 1.5% in Q2 after a 0.6% increase in Q1 – driven by discretionary categories across all demographics. Spending growth was not as strong for older Australians (65+), however, perhaps reflective of the recent financial market volatility and high cost of living. The Panel’s detailed insights behind household income and saving flows suggest the latest lift in spending did not come at the expense of a reduction in the savings rate, also reporting a solid quarter for average net incomes (+2.9%) and, to a lesser extent, a pick-up in personal credit usage during EOFYS – as evinced by official credit data last week.

Overall, our Panel suggests the consumer recovery is on a relatively firm footing heading into mid-year – a welcome signal in line with our expectations. This follows what has been a fairly gradual recovery in consumer spending to date, which is understandable given the depth and length of the contraction in real per capita incomes. Abating cost-of-living pressures are a crucial factor underlying the current recovery; thankfully, inflation is expected to remain within the target band, justifying 100bps of rate cuts beginning at next week’s August RBA meeting through May 2026 to a neutral terminal cash rate of 2.85%.

On the medium-term view, ahead of the Government’s upcoming Productivity Roundtable, Chief Economist Luci Ellis’ essay this week focuses on tax policy, productivity and the eventual aim, improving living standards.

Before moving offshore, it is also worth highlighting that Australia’s goods trade data continues to exhibit extreme volatility as global trade networks attempt to adjust to the Trump trade policy era – see below for the latest developments. While the surplus bounced up to $5.4bn in June from a downwardly revised $1.6bn in May, we expect the broader multi-year trend of a narrowing surplus to remain in place into the medium-term, as commodity prices step back from recent highs and the Aussie dollar strengthens.

Turning to the US, last Friday’s weak employment report remained participants focus all week, the reduction in the 3-month average pace of nonfarm payroll growth from 150k to 35k seen as a break in the labour market trend and evidence of building downside risks. Notably, household survey employment has been weaker still, declining 132k per month since January; had it not been for a 0.4ppt decline in participation over the period, the unemployment rate would now be around 4.6% as opposed to the 4.2% reported by the BLS for July.

Given this shift, it is unsurprising that the market is now pricing in 60bps of FOMC rate cuts by end-2025 and a cumulative 130bps by end-2026. In our view though, this ignores the inflation persistence and risks that have held back the FOMC in recent months and which we expect to endure. Against the market’s 130bps of easing to end-2026, we instead expect just 50bps of cuts (by end-2025), with the impact on the long end of the US yield curve more than offset by rising fiscal uncertainty.

Adding to that uncertainty this week, President Trump imposed another 25% tariff on India in response to their purchases of Russian energy, but did not act against China even though the latter nation is also a major customer of Russian energy companies. A 100% industry tariff was also mooted for semiconductors produced by firms not investing in the US, albeit without detail on the terms, scale or timing of the expected investment. President Trump has previously signalled a similar approach for pharmaceutical production and imports, again without providing any detail. In such a climate, it is difficult for US businesses to justify a material expansion of capacity outside very specific sub-industries such semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Providing another point to ponder, just announced this morning is that Stephen Miran, currently Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, has been appointed to the Federal Reserve Board Governor position vacated by Adriana Kugler, but only until January 31 2026.

Meanwhile in the UK, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut its Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.0%, a level last seen in March 2023. While the eventual outcome aligned with both our and the market’s expectations, for the first time ever, the MPC was required to vote a second time after a three-way split in the first vote, four members voting to leave policy unchanged, four for a 25bp cut and one for a 50bp cut. In the second vote, the five members wanting to ease policy this month coalesced on a 25bp cut, creating a majority.

The minutes of the meeting revealed that those favouring a cut were most concerned by disinflationary pressure from emerging slack in the labour market, evinced by the moderation in underlying wage growth. The four members in the minority, however, emphasised that, following a recent increase in headline inflation, “the disinflationary process had slowed and the risk of inflation expectations feeding through to second-round effects had risen.” The updated BoE projection for the CPI illustrated the view of the latter group well: headline inflation is now expected to peak at 4.0%yr in September, 0.3ppts higher than the BoE expected three months ago; and then return to the 2% target one quarter later. The BoE’s projection for GDP growth was little changed, and is consistent with a gradual recovery.

In the press conference, Governor Bailey admitted that, while the policy rate remains on a downward trajectory, the monetary policy path has become more uncertain, with the Committee attempting to balance upside inflation risks against concerns over economic activity and the labour market. Against this backdrop, the committee maintained its forward guidance of “a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint.” While we expect the MPC to proceed very carefully, we believe a 25bp cut per quarter is likely to be maintained in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, leaving Bank Rate at a neutral 3.50% by Q2 2026.

Bitcoin has recovered from a recent pullback thanks in part to improving market sentiment, a weaker US Dollar and recent crypto developments in the US.

Bitcoin has rallied some 4.5% from the recent lows around the 112k mark on August 2. This low came in a day after market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts saw a significant shift in tone and the US Dollar rally fizzled.

Another positive development for both Bitcoin and Crypto markets came earlier today as President Donald Trump signed an executive order that aims to allow 401(k) investors access to alternative assets (such as digital assets).

Trump Signs Executive Order to Allow Bitcoin and Crypto in 401(k)s

During the US session, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, signed an Executive Order that aims to allow 401(k) investors access to alternative assets (such as digital assets).

According to the official announcement:

“The order directs the Secretary of Labor to reexamine the Department of Labor’s guidance on a fiduciary’s duties regarding alternative asset investments in ERISA-governed 401(k) and other defined-contribution plans.”

This comes as part of Trump’s plans to establish the country as the leading player in the cryptocurrency industry. To this point, the order also stipulates that “alternative assets, such as private equity, real estate, and digital assets, offer competitive returns and diversification benefits.”

The move saw cryptocurrencies as a whole benefit, Bitcoin's price is now over $117,000, up 2% today. Ethereum (ETH), a hot topic among altcoins recently, has risen by 5%.

The move could see greater institutional flows as market participants who have not had crypto investments in the past could look to include a portion in their 401k.

ETF Flows Reflect Changing Market Dynamics

Looking at ETF flows over the past week and they do reflect in part the changes to market conditions. ETF flows had enjoyed 5 consecutive days of inflows ahead of the Fed meeting.

This came to an end as Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted rather hawkish rhetoric in his post FOMC meeting comments. This saw inflows stop with 4 consecutive days of outflows as markets eyed the possibility of higher rates fro longer.

Fridays Jobs data however through a spanner in the works. Outflows did not cease immediately despite the weak jobs data and continued at the start of this week but have since stalled.

The last two days have seen modest inflows of around 91.5 and 74 million US Dollars. A sign that the tide is turning?

Source: Farside Investors

Technical Analysis - BTC/USD

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has had a retest of breakout support level around the 112k handle and has since rallied higher.

Looking at the H4 chart below we can see that bitcoin has been in a bull flag pattern since printing fresh all-time highs July 14 2025.

The rally higher has now reached the top end of the bull flag pattern having broken back above the 50, 100 and 200-day MAs. Surprisingly on Tuesday August 5 we had a death cross pattern which Bitcoin seemed to ignore and continued its rally to the upside. A sign of bullish momentum?

As things stand Bitcoin is eyeing a potential break of the bull flag pattern which could lead to a rally to around the 125k handle.

Looking at price action, the fact that we have just printed a higher high means a pullback toward the swing low at 114555 before continuing higher and breaking out of the bull flag pattern.

A four-hour candle close below the 114555 handle would invalidate this setup and could lead to a retest of the lower end of the bull flag pattern.

Immediate resistance rests at the 120000 mark before the 120900 and all-time high at 123236.

Support may be located at 114555, 112916 and 112000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, August 8, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)