Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7839; (P) 1.7877; (R1) 1.7918; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.7972 resistance should resume the whole rally from 1.7245 through 1.8094 to 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. On the downside, below 1.7671 will bring deeper fall back to 1.7459 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9330; (P) 0.9345; (R1) 0.9361; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and focus remains on 0.9361 resistance. Firm break there will suggest that corrective pattern from 0.9445 has already completed at 0.9265. Further rise should then be seen to 0.9428 resistance for confirmation. However, below 0.9265 will bring another fall back to retest 0.9218 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside position should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1539; (P) 1.1564; (R1) 1.1599; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 1.1596 will affirm the case that correction from 1.1829 has completed with three waves at 1.1390. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.1788/1820 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.1390 will resume the correction to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1829 at 1.1198 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.84; (P) 147.34; (R1) 148.06; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. As long as 145.84 support holds, larger rebound from 139.87 is still in favor to continue. On the upside, above 148.07 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back to retest 150.90. However, on the downside, firm break of 145.84 support will argue that whole rise from 139.87 might have already completed. Deeper fall should then be seen to 142.66 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3267; (P) 1.3292; (R1) 1.3324; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3363 support turned resistance will indicate that the fall has completed as a three-wave correction. Further rally should then be seen back to 1.3587 resistance next. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2744.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3049) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8053; (P) 0.8086; (R1) 0.8106; More….

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, below 0.8020 will affirm that case that corrective bounce from 0.7871 has completed at 0.8170. Bias will be back on the downside for 07871/7910 support zone. On the upside, though, break of 0.8170 will resume the rise from 0.7871 to 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7871 at 0.8379 instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3754; (P) 1.3782; (R1) 1.3801; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.3878 bring stronger rally, but upside should be limited by 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 14017) to complete the correction. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3763) will bring retest of 1.3538 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

The ongoing cycle in Silver (XAGUSD), initiated from the April 7 low, continues to unfold as an impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Wave (3) of this impulse concluded at 39.52, as illustrated on the 1-hour chart. The subsequent pullback in wave (4) terminated at 36.17, exhibiting a zigzag internal structure. From the peak of wave (3), wave ((i)) declined to 38.67, followed by a rally in wave ((ii)) to 39.19. Wave ((iii)) then dropped to 37.93, with wave ((iv)) rebounding to 38.33. The final leg, wave ((v)), completed at 37.88, finalizing wave A in a higher degree. Wave B then rallied to 38.28.

Wave C descended in a five-wave impulse pattern. From wave B, wave ((i)) fell to 37.98, and wave ((ii)) climbed to 38.24. Wave ((iii)) dropped to 36.76, followed by wave ((iv)) rising to 37.268. The final wave ((v)) concluded at 36.17, completing wave C of (4). Silver has since begun advancing in wave (5). However, it must surpass the wave (3) high of 39.52 to eliminate the possibility of a double correction. As long as the 36.17 pivot holds, expect upward momentum. The potential target for wave (5) lies at the 123.6% inverse retracement of wave (4), projecting to 40.3. This analysis supports a bullish near-term outlook, provided the key support level remains intact.

Silver (XAGUSD) – 60 Minute Elliott Wave Technical Chart:

XAGUSD – Elliott Wave Technical Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJS8qra0qNs

Data from both sides of the Atlantic painted a mixed picture yesterday. In Europe, July PMIs indicated slower expansion—or faster contraction in some regions—while in the US, the services sector slowed to near 50-mark, the threshold between expansion and contraction. New orders fell, employment softened, and, more worryingly, price pressures accelerated. That’s the last thing investors want to see, as higher inflation may prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting rates. Reacting to this, markets pared back rate cut expectations for September. The US 2-year yield bounced above 3.70%, though still below the 4% level seen before last Friday’s jobs report revived hopes of a 25bp cut. Fed funds futures still price in nearly a 90% chance of that cut, partly on the view that a slowing economy will tame inflation over time.

The bigger unknown is whether a spending slowdown could offset the inflationary shock of Trump’s tariff plans—and whether markets could absorb a forced rate cut from Trump without seeing a jump in borrowing costs. So far, markets appear willing to roll with the punches. After a brief period of digestion, they resume pricing in risk and growth as usual—whether it’s exploding US debt, dramatic tariffs, or political unpredictability.

That said, demand for US debt remains a question: the Treasury's $58bn 3-year note sale met weak demand yesterday, and all eyes are on the 10-year auction today. Any softness could revive debt sustainability concerns—or not. The US dollar, meanwhile, is stalling near its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on its summer rebound and looks poised to resume its bearish trend, weighed down by trade chaos, fiscal concerns, and dovish Fed expectations.

US equities pulled back yesterday, but futures are slightly higher today on hopes that rate cuts will ultimately support valuations. Palantir surged nearly 8% to a record high on strong results. In contrast, Super Micro Computer and AMD disappointed investors. AMD, the best-performing chip stock in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, dropped more than 6% after hours, while Super Micro fell 16%. Zooming out, the semiconductor sector broadly declined on reports that Trump may impose tariffs on chip and pharmaceutical imports. Trump even floated a 150–250% tariff range on pharmaceutical products—hardly encouraging news for Swiss negotiators who landed in the US yesterday hoping to roll back the 39% tariffs imposed last week. The SMI index is holding its breath, with hopes that US trade officials recognize that Switzerland’s low-value-added gold exports distort its trade deficit, while its $50bn in US service imports—like Microsoft licenses—should carry more weight.

But Trump has little incentive to entertain those arguments. After all, what’s the alternative—boycott Microsoft Office and send handwritten letters by carrier pigeon? In today’s digital world, that’s what negotiation power (or the lack of it) looks like. And Europe seems to have little of it.

In Europe, French industrial production posted a nearly 4% gain in June—its strongest in five years—driven by transportation materials and easing supply chain constraints. Still, the broader eurozone outlook remains tepid. Growth is hampered by regulatory rigidity and a stubbornly inflexible labour market. The Stoxx 600 eked out a modest 0.15% gain yesterday, but in the new geopolitical environment, defense and tech are emerging as the sectors to own, while luxury appears to be falling out of favour. Unsurprisingly, European tech and defense names delivered solid Q2 results, while luxury struggled. Banks also performed well.

European energy companies reported earnings declines—but not as steep as feared. Both Shell and BP beat estimates, maintained share buybacks, and emphasized capital discipline over aggressive green spending. Shell is trimming underperforming divisions like Chemicals, while BP is scaling back its renewables strategy under activist pressure. BP rose 2.8% on the results, while Shell is lower since its earnings announcement. In Saudi Arabia, Aramco reported its tenth straight revenue decline and is now borrowing to fund shareholder payouts as lower oil prices bite into revenue. Aramco is attempting to offset this by increasing output, hoping that higher volume will compensate for lower prices. The soft US dollar and a slowing global energy transition may help.

Crude oil is now testing a critical support near $65.30 per barrel. That level is under pressure due to speculation that Russia may announce an air truce in Ukraine. But in contrast, Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could be bullish, if countries comply. India must now weigh the cost of cheaper Russian oil against the risk of damaging relations with an increasingly protectionist US. Price-wise, if WTI breaks below $65pb, it would likely mark the end of this summer’s price rebound and usher in a renewed downtrend, in line with higher supply and an uncertain demand outlook for the second half.

In focus today

In the euro area, June retail sales will be released. In May, seasonally adjusted retail trade volume declined by 0.7%. Recent 2025 retail sales figures suggest growing consumer caution, with sales remaining flat.

Economic and market news

What happened yesterday

In the US, the ISM services PMI declined to 50.1 for July from 50.8 in June, remaining just above the neutral 50 level. This contrasts with the earlier PMI release, which exceeded expectations. The report highlighted a services employment index of 46.4, signalling contraction for the second consecutive month. While all other sub-indices weakened, the prices index rose, raising concerns for the Fed about the risk of stagflation, as growth and demand soften while prices pressures persist.

In Sweden, the services PMI dropped sharply to 48.8 in July from 54.6 in June, entering contraction territory. The most significant drag came from orders, pointing to weaker demand. This aligns more closely with stagnant hard data, as seen in Q2 GDP growth of just +0.1% q/q following 0% in Q1. It emphasises Riksbank's current challenge of balancing low growth with high inflation.

Equities: Equity markets drifted sideways yesterday with contrasting signals across regions and sectors. US markets edged lower while both European and Asian indices closed higher. Sector-wise, there was little in the way of a clear narrative, especially in the US. Materials led the pack, while utilities lagged - hardly your textbook "risk-off" setup. Adding to the ambiguity, US small caps outperformed, suggesting underlying risk appetite despite headline index weakness.

In the US yesterday, Dow -0.1%, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7% and Russell 2000 +0.6%. Asian equities are mixed this morning, but futures in both Europe and the US point to a firmer open.

FI and FX: The US yield curve flattened from the short end as 2Y yields rose some 5bp while the 10Y US Treasury yield was unchanged. The move was driven by ISM service data showing a stagnating service sector, but rising price pressure which adds to the uncertainty regarding future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.