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The New Zealand dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5923, up 0.37% on the day. The kiwi has been under pressure, falling 3.4% against the US dollar in July.

New Zealand's unemployment rises, job growth declines

New Zealand's employment report for Q2 was pretty much as expected, but the news wasn't good. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5.1% in Q1, below the consensus of 5.3%. This marked the highest unemployment rate since Q3 2020. Employment Change declined by 0.1%, down from a 0.1% gain in Q1 and matching the consensus. This was the third decline in four quarters.

The weak figures point to growing slack in the labor market as the economy continues to struggle. Global trade tensions remain high and New Zealand's export-reliant economy has taken a hit from softer global demand.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be paying close attention to the weak job numbers, which support a rate cut in order to provide a boost to the economy. The RBNZ maintained rates in July after lowering rates at six consecutive meetings. The conditions for a rate cut at the Aug. 20 meeting seem ripe and the markets have priced in a quarter-point reduction at around 85%.

We'll get an updated look at the inflation picture on Thursday. Inflation Expectations rose to 2.3% in the second quarter, the highest in a year. This is the final tier-1 release prior to the August rate meeting.

Fed expected to cut in September

Three FOMC members will speak later today and investors will be hoping for some insights regarding the Federal Reserve's rate plans. The Fed hasn't lowered rates since December but is widely expected to hit the rate trigger at the September meeting.

NZD/USD Technical

NZDUSD 1-Day Chart, Aug. 6, 2025

• NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.5902 and testing 0.5922. Next, there is resistance at 0.5944
• 0.5880 and 0.5860 are providing support

Cable dipped during early European trading on Wednesday, deflated by weak UK data (July Construction PMI fell to the lowest since 2020), although the price holds within the range that extends into third consecutive day (long-legged Doji candles point to strong near-term indecision).

Overall technical picture remains negative (daily MA’s are in bearish setup with the latest formation of 10/100 and 30/55DMA bear-crosses / 14-d momentum remains in negative territory) and supports scenario of recovery stall before larger bears regain full control.

Recent range top (1.3330, reinforced by falling 10DMA) should keep the upside protected and guard barriers at 1.3348 (100DMA) and 1.3375 (broken Fibo 38.2% of 1.2708/1.3788.

Violation of temporary support at 1.3248 (cracked Fibo 50%) to expose targets at 1.3141 (Aug 1 three-month low) and 1.3120 (Fibo 61.8%).

Markets await BOE’s rate decision (due on Thursday), with the central bank expected to cut rates to 4.00% from 4.25% that would add more pressure on sterling.

Res: 1.3330; 1.3348; 1.3375; 1.3397.
Sup: 1.3248; 1.3185; 1.3141; 1.3120.

Analysing the chart on 22 July, we constructed a descending channel and assumed that natural gas prices would continue to form a bearish market structure of lower highs and lower lows. Since then, the market has declined by almost 10%.

As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas prices are hovering around the psychological level of $3.000/MMBtu. Earlier this week, gas was trading around $2.940/MMBtu — the lowest level of 2025.

According to media reports, the price decline is driven by both high production levels and favourable weather forecasts for August, the hottest month of the year. What might happen next?

Technical Analysis of the XNG/USD Chart

We have updated the descending channel, taking into account the recent fluctuations in natural gas prices.

The chart shows that bearish momentum remains intact — the rise from point B to C appears to be a corrective rebound within the prevailing downward trend, with the following developments:

→ point C formed in the 0.5–0.618 area, which corresponds to classic Fibonacci retracement levels following the A→B impulse;

→ the former support at 0.365 has now become resistance.

Bulls may hope that the current sentiment could shift following tomorrow’s natural gas storage report (scheduled for 17:30 GMT+3). A drop in inventories could potentially trigger a bullish impulse on the XNG/USD chart.

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On Wednesday, the price of gold dipped to 3,375 USD per troy ounce but remained close to a two-week high, retaining most of its recent gains.

The market remains buoyed by demand for defensive assets amid expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy.

The previous day saw the release of US ISM data, which showed the services sector business activity index for July falling to 50.1 points – below forecasts. The figures indicated sluggish growth, slowing employment, and mounting price pressures. Earlier data also pointed to a weakening labour market and declining consumer spending.

These developments have bolstered expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates as early as September, with markets now pricing in a 90% probability of such a move.

Further support for gold comes from new trade tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, alongside investor concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence following the resignation of Board of Governors member Lisa Kugler. Her departure paves the way for Trump to appoint a more accommodative successor.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is forming a broad consolidation range around 3,346 USD on the H4 chart. The market has corrected to 3,390 USD. Today, we assess the likelihood of a new downward wave developing towards 3,333 USD. A break below this level could extend the decline to a minimum of 3,255 USD. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero near recent highs but shows signs of an impending downturn.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a corrective structure to 3,390 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level, with a downward breakout likely to extend the decline towards 3,320 USD. A breach of this support could signal further downside momentum, potentially targeting 3,200 USD. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold remains resilient near recent highs, supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. However, technical indicators suggest potential near-term downside, with key support levels at 3,333 USD (H4) and 3,320 USD (H1) in focus.

GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.3215 resistance. EUR/GBP is consolidating and might aim for a fresh increase above 0.8700.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.3265.
• There is a contracting triangle forming with resistance at 1.3375 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a positive zone above the 0.8665 pivot level.
• There is a short-term declining channel forming with resistance near 0.8705 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair declined after it failed to clear the 1.3600 resistance. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound even traded below the 1.3350 support against the US Dollar.

Finally, the pair tested the 1.3140 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3215. The pair even climbed above the 1.3265 level.

The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3385 swing high to the 1.3141 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.3375. There is also a contracting triangle forming with resistance at 1.3375 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3385 swing high to the 1.3141 low.

The next major resistance is near 1.3385. A close above the 1.3385 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.3450. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.3550.

On the downside, there is decent support forming at 1.3265. If there is a downside break below 1.3265, the pair could accelerate lower. The first major support is near the 1.3215 level. The next key support is seen near 1.3140, below which the pair could test 1.3050. Any more losses could lead the pair toward 1.3000.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair started a consolidation phase after it failed to surpass 0.8730. The Euro traded below the 0.8710 and 0.8700 support levels against the British Pound.

The EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair even declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8605 swing low to the 0.8729 high. It is now consolidating losses and trading below the 50-hour simple moving average.

The pair is now facing resistance near the 0.8705 level. There is also a short-term declining channel forming with resistance near 0.8705.

The next major resistance could be 0.8730. The main resistance is near the 0.8750 zone. A close above the 0.8750 level might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8780. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.8800 level.

Immediate support sits near 0.8680. The next major support is near 0.8665 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8605 swing low to the 0.8729 high.

A downside break below 0.8665 might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 0.8635.

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The euro has staged a remarkable bullish reversal against the US dollar last Friday, 1 August, ex-post weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data release.

The EUR/USD jumped by 1.5% which put a halt to the prior week-long corrective decline from the 24 July 2025 swing high of 1.1789.

Since Monday, 4 August, the EUR/USD has drifted in a tight sideways range of 69 pips as market participants digest a slew of data and news flow in the past few sessions, rising stagflation risk due to a flat US ISM Services PMI print for July, while its Prices Paid sub-component jumped to a three-year high.

Also, US President Trump’s upcoming nomination for the replacement of the outgoing Fed Governor Kugler, who resigned last Friday that is likely to be made known by the end of this week.

Let’s decipher the short-term movements of the EUR/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

Fig. 1: EUR/USD minor trend as of 6 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

A potential minor bullish breakout may occur at this juncture for the EUR/USD after three sessions of sideways consolidation.

Bullish bias with key short-term pivotal support at 1.1520 and a clearance above 1.1600 (also the 50-day moving average) sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 1.1640, and 1.1680/1705 (see Fig. 1).

Key elements

• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a series of “higher lows” while remaining on support by a parallel ascending trendline in place since 31 July. These observations suggest a potential build-up of short-term bullish momentum.
• The hourly Bollinger Bandwidth has flashed out a “volatility squeeze” condition where it drifted to an extreme low contraction level of 0.2 on Tuesday, 5 August.
• A “volatility squeeze” condition precedes a potential price action breakout movement in the EUR/USD.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

Failure to hold at 1.1520 invalidates the bullish scenario where the EUR/USD may see a minor slide to retest the next intermediate supports of 1.1460 and 1.1400 (1 August 2025 swing low).

Swiss Franc has come under heavy pressure since early August, with trade tensions driving much of the weakness. The US stunned markets last week by imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, accusing Bern of failing to make “meaningful concessions” on trade. The duties, effective Thursday, will impact a broad swath of Swiss exports — including high-value goods like pharmaceuticals and luxury watches — which are heavily reliant on access to the US market.

Swiss officials have scrambled to Washington in a final attempt to prevent the tariffs from being implemented. President Keller-Sutter and Business Minister Parmelin arrived Tuesday, and a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled for Wednesday. With no confirmed talks yet with US trade or commerce officials, hopes for a breakthrough might be fading, further weighing on the Franc.

CHF/JPY is reflecting this pressure technically, with the pair confirming a short-term top at 186.60 after breaking support at 183.19. Near-term outlook favors a deeper correction to (now at 180.79) and possibly below.

But strong support should emerge around 178 support zone, (61.8% retracement of 173.06 to 186.00 at 178.00 and 38.2% retracement of 163.83 to 186.00 at 178.29) to contain downside. Large up trend is expected to resume through 186.00 at a later stage, if tensions with Washington ease in the coming weeks.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 195.39; (P) 195.92; (R1) 196.81; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. Corrective fall from 199.96 short term top could extend lower. But strong support is expected from 193.99 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 199.96 at 193.99). to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 197.41 support turned resistance will bring retest of 199.96. However, sustained break of 193.99 will raise the chance of near term bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 170.10; (P) 170.52; (R1) 171.23; More...

Outlook in EUR/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. While fall from 173.87 short term top could extend lower, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 172.36 resistance will bring retest of 173.87 first. However, sustained break of 168.97 will raise the chance of near term bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 168.80) will delay this bullish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8674; (P) 0.8707; (R1) 0.8736; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral, and consolidations from 0.8572 short term top could extend. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600. On the upside, firm break of 0.8752 will resume the rise from 0.8354 towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8493) holds.