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It was largely expected to arrive, and Market participants finally got it: The EU-US Trade Deal has finally (almost) been reached.

For now, markets have only an outline of the actual Deal that needs to be finalized, but to the Market’s understanding, the Deal is done.

The US Dollar is looking a bit stronger after the news, particularly against the Euro after forming what resembles a double-top – let’s see how the Markets play this one.

Equities, on the other hand, are showing a mixed reaction, with the DAX selling off after the news, for example.

The subject of today's piece is US Oil, which, although still trading in its range, is seeing some sharp buying.

Let’s take a look at the technicals that precede a potential breakout.

US Oil Intraday charts

The rangebound action warrants a closer look to Oil prices, reason why we will omit from taking a look at the Daily charts in today's analysis

US Oil 4H Chart

US Oil 4H Chart, July 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The action has decidedly been rangebound in the Black Gold despite failing twice to break above around $70 and consequently seeing a tightening of the range to $65.5 - $67.

We mentioned in our preceding Oil analysis how a range, despite showing signs of the balance tilting to the buyers or the sellers' side, can be expected to hold as long as it holds.

It is the same as trends which traders usually anticipate to reverse way earlier than they actually do – this is why it's important to be patient and wait for confirmation.

Let's see closer however to see if there is anything to tip the scales in this morning's action.

US Oil 1H Chart

US Oil 1H Chart, July 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Buyers are stepping in quite aggressively with traders taking the commodity up close to 3% since the Sunday open.

The action is currently overbought but with the strength of the current buying, it would be more common to see consolidation around here rather than a full retest of the range lows.

Oil bulls are taking prices just above the Key Pivot level in the Middle of the range around $67.50 – In rangebound action, always keep an eye on such levels to spot if the breaching of such triggers reactions.

And reactions we are getting. Let's take an even closer look.

US Oil 15m Chart

US Oil 15m Chart, July 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The move is currently stalling from way overbought levels, but the action is holding above the Pivot zone mentioned right above (65.45 to $65.70).

Buyers have stepped in quite strongly in this morning wave forming a tight bull channel

Holding above the pivot zone will indicate higher probabilities of testing the highs of the range, with an intermediate resistance from earlier July trading stepping in around $68.50.

Safe trades and successful trading week!

Markets

Outside of stock markets, there’s little market euphoria to be spotted following the US-European trade deal over the weekend. And even the likes of the EuroStoxx50 are well below their intraday highs. Gains of as much as 1.3% were pared to around 0.4% currently. The euro slides against the USD. EUR/USD forfeits 0.9% to fill offers around 1.164 currently. From a technical and momentum point of view the pair is headed at minimum for a retest of the 1.1573 neckline of a double top formation. Is it buy the rumour (that lingered end last week), sell the fact or simply a good enough reason for some EUR-profit taking after the rebound last week? Or perhaps it is the realization that a 15% levy, which is not nothing, is bound to reduce European exports (and therefore also demand for the euro) and growth in a broader perspective? The differing views on the deal among European leaders obviously don’t help either with the French PM for example calling it an act of submission and a dark day for Europe. The weaker euro is also complemented by an across-the-board stronger USD (against G10 peers). This suggests there’s some relief on the dollar side of the equation, maybe related to the fact that Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric so far does not translate into similar policies. Remember how his shocker tariff card on April 2 triggered a sell-off across all US assets, including the USD. Investors are probably also wary to add to dollar shorts going into an important economic update this week and a Fed policy meeting at which there’s little reason to leave the current wait-and-see attitude. The trade-weighted dollar index fights its way back north of the 98 barrier. Sterling is seizing the sluggish euro momentum to avoid a break below the EUR/GBP November 2023 high. After a brief test of that 0.8768 this morning, EUR/GBP quickly turned south to trade around 0.8682 currently, which coincides with the lower bound of a 2-month upward sloping trend channel.

Core bonds part ways with German bunds outperforming US Treasuries. German net daily yield changes vary between -4 and -0.7 bps in a bull steepening move. Euro area money markets again add to ECB easing bets after having reduced them in the wake of last week’s policy meeting. Treasury yields are slightly up on the day, lead by the long end of the curve. A double $69bn 2-yr and $70bn 5-yr auction tonight may trigger some intraday moves though these tenors usually lack major market moving potential. UK gilts underperform both vs Bund Treasuries. Yields rise 1-2.2 bps, bear flattening the curve.

News & Views

A survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed a downturn in British retail sales ran into its 10th month in July. The index came in at -34 with the improvement from June’s -46 offering meagre comfort. CBI’s principal economist Sartorius said that "Firms reported that elevated price pressures – driven by rising labour costs – and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household demand, which has contributed to sales volumes falling since October 2024." The rising labour costs in turn are attributed to the UK government’s decision to increase social security contributions in the October budget. Weak demand was visible across the distribution sector, with sales in wholesale and motor trades also declining.

Jürgen Schaaf, an adviser to the ECB, expressed worry in a blog on the central bank’s website over the US dollar’s early dominance of stablecoins following the landmark GENIUS act signed by president Trump last Friday in which a regulatory framework is created. Schaaf said such dominance would provide the US with strategic and economic advantages, allowing it to finance debt more cheaply while exerting global influence. Schaaf also said that if dollar-based stablecoins become widely used in the euro area, be it for payments, savings or settlement, the ECB’s control over monetary conditions would be weakened. Stablecoins are crypto assets that are pegged to a currency, most commonly the US dollar.

European Shares Hit 4-Month High on Trade Deal Announcement, Audi Cuts Forecast, FTSE 100 Slides From Fresh ATH

Asia Market Wrap - Sentiment Mixed Following US/EU Deal

The record-breaking run in US markets is likely to continue after the EU reached a trade deal with Trump, easing fears of a major trade war.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% after the index hit five straight all-time highs last week. European stock futures also jumped 1% following the deal, which includes a 15% tariff on most EU exports. The MSCI All Country World Index hit a new record, though Asian markets stayed flat. Trump and European Commission President Von der Leyen announced the deal on Sunday at Trump’s golf club in Turnberry, Scotland, but didn’t share specific details or any written agreement.

The deal, which was hard to negotiate, will place 15% tariffs on most EU exports, including cars, but avoids a trade war that could have seriously hurt the global economy.

US/EU Trade Deal - Audi Cuts Forecast Following Tariffs

The US and the European Union reached a trade deal on Sunday, setting a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half of what was originally threatened and avoiding a larger trade war. Together, the US and EU make up nearly a third of global trade.

US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the agreement after a one-hour meeting at Trump’s golf course in Scotland. The deal came after months of tough negotiations. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz praised the agreement, saying it prevented a trade conflict that could have badly hurt Germany’s economy, especially its car industry. German carmakers like VW, Mercedes, and BMW have already been affected by the current 27.5% US tariff on car and parts imports.

While the 15% tariff is lower than the original threat, many in Europe still see it as too high, as they had hoped for a deal with no tariffs at all. Bernd Lange, head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, criticized the tariffs as unfair and warned that Europe’s planned investments in the US could harm the EU’s own economy.

A senior US official said Trump could raise the tariffs in the future if European countries fail to meet their investment promises.

German carmaker Audi, part of Volkswagen, lowered its financial forecast for the year on Monday. The company blamed higher US import tariffs and ongoing restructuring costs for the change.

Audi now expects its revenue to be between 65 billion and 70 billion euros ($76 billion to $82 billion), which is lower than its earlier prediction of 67.5 billion to 72.5 billion euros. It also reduced its expected operating profit margin to 5% to 7%, down from the previous range of 7% to 9%.

Audi is still reviewing the effects of the recent trade deal between the US and the EU.

European Open - European Shares Hit Four-Month Highs

European shares hit a four-month high on Monday, driven by gains in pharma and semiconductor stocks. The STOXX 600 index rose 0.7%, with Germany's DAX up 0.6%, France's CAC 40 gaining 0.8%, and the UK's FTSE 100 edging up 0.1%.

The recent US-EU trade deal, which includes a 15% tariff on most EU goods and a $600 billion EU investment in the U.S., boosted market optimism. The STOXX 600 is now just 1.8% below its all-time high from March, rebounding 19.5% since April.

Pharma stocks like Novo Nordisk (+0.4%) and Roche (+1.4%) hit monthly highs, while auto stocks, benefiting from reduced tariffs, reached two-month highs. Semiconductor companies ASML (+4.2%), Besi (+5.5%), and ASM International (+3.8%) were top performers.

However, spirits stocks Pernod Ricard (-1.4%) and Anheuser-Busch (-1.3%) fell as the trade deal left tariffs on spirits unresolved. Heineken dropped 4.3%, citing long-term tariff challenges. LVMH rose slightly amid reports of selling its Marc Jacobs brand.

On the FX front, The euro rose slightly to $1.1753, up 0.1% after an earlier 0.3% increase. It also gained 0.2% to 173.64 yen, marking its fifth straight session of growth and reaching a one-year high.

The dollar stayed steady at 147.65 yen, while the dollar index, which measures the US currency against others, remained flat at 97.582.

The British pound held steady at $1.3443. The Australian dollar was at $0.6568, and New Zealand's kiwi dollar stayed at $0.6014, with little movement.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

Gold prices remain choppy as mixed price action dominated the Asian session and this has continued into the European open. Gold was trading at $3340/oz at the time of writing.

Oil prices rose slightly on Monday as investors reacted to the U.S.-EU trade deal. However, a stronger US dollar and reduced oil imports by India limited the gains.

Brent crude increased by 30 cents (0.4%) to $68.74 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude went up by 27 cents (0.4%) to $65.43 per barrel.

Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, a busy week lies ahead. Monday and Tuesday are abit bare when it comes to high impact data releases but Wednesday onward the calendar is extremely busy.

We have Central Bank meetings, US and UK earnings as well as a few other data releases and potential trade deal announcements.

Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at policy meetings this week, but traders will watch subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next moves.

Earnings season in the US will see 4 of the magnificent 7 stocks reporting.Apple is due on Thursday with Meta due out on Wednesday.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index gapped higher following the US -EU trade deal over the weekend.

However, since the European open the index has retreated to trade lower than the Friday daily close price at 9151.

The upside does not have any historical data to focus on and thus I will look toward psychological numbers like 9250 and potentially 9500.

Immediate support rests at 9100 before the 9048 and 9000 handles come into focus.

FTSE 100 Daily Chart, July 28. 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1710; (P) 1.1735; (R1) 1.1768; More...

EUR/USD's break of 1.1677 minor support suggests that corrective pattern from 1.1829 is extending with the third leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1555 support and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 55 D EMA (now at 1.1538) to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1788 will bring retest of 1.1829 high first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.03; (P) 147.48; (R1) 148.13; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 147.94 first. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 139.87. Next target is 100% projection of 139.87 to 148.64 from 142.66 at 151.43, which is close to 151.22 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 147.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 145.84 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3395; (P) 1.3458; (R1) 1.3500; More...

GBP/USD is holding above 1.3363 support and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 1.3587 will target a retest on 1.3787 high. However, sustained break of 1.3363 support will argue that it's already correcting the whole rally from 1.2099, and target 1.3206 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3045) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7937; (P) 0.7959; (R1) 0.7972; More….

USD/CHF's extended rebound and break of 0.7990 minor resistance suggests that corrective pattern from 0.7871 is extending with the third leg. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8063 resistance and possibly above. But upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.8108). On the downside, below 0.7910 support will bring retest of 0.7871 low.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6544; (P) 0.6573; (R1) 0.6594; More...

AUD/USD's pullback from 0.6624 accelerated lower today, but downside is contained well above 0.6453 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Rally from 0.5913 might still extend through 0.6624. However, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside should be limited by 0.6713 fibonacci level on next rise. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.6453 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

EUR/USD reversed sharply after an early bounce on Monday, as markets continued to digest the implications of the new US–EU trade framework. The pair’s drop was driven by a combination of Euro weakness and resurgent Dollar strength, reflecting an underwhelming investor response to the deal and shifting interest back toward US assets.

Euro’s softness wasn’t limited to the dollar. EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY also turned lower, confirming that selling pressure is broad-based. Meanwhile, the steep drop in AUD/USD and renewed surge in USD/CAD underline that Dollar bulls are firmly back in control, aided by widening rate differentials.

Criticism of the US–EU deal has intensified within the bloc. Many see the agreement as skewed in favor of the US, which extracted sweeping energy and investment pledges from the EU while locking in a 15% tariff on most goods—a sharp climb from the pre-Trump status quo. The deal is viewed less as a breakthrough and more as damage control.

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou labeled the agreement “a dark day for Europe,” arguing that the EU had capitulated to Washington. Such sentiment reflects deeper discontent within the bloc, particularly among industries hardest hit by the tariff hike. While German and French equities initially opened higher, gains quickly faded as market participants reassessed the trade-off.

On the US side, the trade deal is being hailed as a strategic win. Investors see renewed clarity in transatlantic relations, and the large tariff buffer may give US inflation a further boost. That, in turn, could reinforce the Fed’s cautious approach. While a September cut remains likely, the pace of easing may stay slow and deliberate.

In the currency markets, Dollar is now the day’s top performer so far, followed by Loonie and Sterling. Euro and Swiss Franc are the worst performers, while Aussie, Kiwi, and Yen mixed.

Technically, intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral first with current steep retreat. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 0.8679) should indicate short term topping at 0.8752. Deeper fall should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.14%. DAX is flat. CAC is up 0.28%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.01 at 4.641. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.017 at 2.705. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.10%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.68%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.12%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.47%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.036 to 1.569.

ECB’s Kazimir cites no urgency to cut rates again

Slovak ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir pushed back against expectations of a September rate cut, stating he doesn’t foresee any data “significant enough” to warrant action in the near term. Writing in a blog post, Kazimir, one of the more hawkish voices on the Council, emphasized that only clear signs like "unravelling in the labour market” would prompt him to support another cut.

Kazimir acknowledged that the US–EU trade deal brings a degree of stability, noting it “can help to ease concerns and regain confidence,” but cautioned that it’s too soon to judge its inflationary implications. He added that while inflation may dip below target in the coming year, he sees “no looming spectre of a sustained undershooting,” reinforcing his preference to wait and assess.

AUD/USD Mid-Day Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6544; (P) 0.6573; (R1) 0.6594; More...

AUD/USD's pullback from 0.6624 accelerated lower today, but downside is contained well above 0.6453 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Rally from 0.5913 might still extend through 0.6624. However, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside should be limited by 0.6713 fibonacci level on next rise. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.6453 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).