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European stocks initially welcomed the US-EU 15% trade deal but enthusiasm died out gradually through the session. While avoiding a worst-case no-deal scenario and offering companies something concrete to deal with (ie less uncertainty), extensive talk of a “lopsided” agreement favouring the US began to weigh on sentiment. The French PM Bayrou said it was an act of submission. German’s chancellor Merz welcomed the deal with the US first, mainly because it offers some clarity in a foggy situation first. He dialed back cautiously optimistic tone later and said that the tariffs represent a significant burden on the economy. Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy puts the short-term price tag of the trade deal for the German economy at 0.1%. A pre-deal impact analysis by thinktank Bruegel showed a hit of around 0.3% on European GDP in various scenarios where tariffs ranged between 10-25% for all US trading partners. That’s something but it’s no reason for panic. It’s against this backdrop that we view EUR/USD’s 1.3% slide yesterday to sub 1.16 at least partially driven by thinner liquidity circumstances in a technical buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact episode. Support at 1.1573 is being tested right now. This neckline of a double top formation could in case of a break pave the way for a return back to the 1.1431 area (23.6% USD recovery on the 2025 decline). The trade-weighted dollar index rebounded to back north of 98 with eyes set on the July high of 98.95. EUR/GBP’s failed test of the November 2023 high around 0.877 triggered impressive intraday return action, mostly EUR-inspired. The couple finished in the 0.867 area. Bunds outperformed Treasuries, forfeiting between 1.1-3.1 bps in a bull steepening move. US rates eked out up to 3 bps at the long end of the curve. A combined $69bn 2-yr and $70bn 5-yr auction went smooth and without any intraday movement.

After the trade agreement with Japan and the EU, this Friday’s August 1 deadline becomes increasingly irrelevant. US-Sino talks are expected to hit extratime beyond the August 12 date. It means the trade narrative – even though a lot of details still need to be hammered out – could move a bit to the background while the eco calendar starts heating up today with the June JOLTS report and July Conference Board consumer confidence. The US also auctions $44bn 7-year bonds. Strong data could trigger some UST underperformance and a further unwinding of dollar shorts, especially against the euro that lost some momentum short-term. But we expect the largest investor attention and therefore market reaction to be saved for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting (coinciding with Q2 GDP numbers) and Friday’s payrolls report. The first European national growth figures are scheduled for release, including in Belgium and Spain.

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The British Retail Consortium’s shop price inflation measure quickened to 0.7% y/y from 0.4% in June, well beyond the 0.3% expected. Renewed price pressures were most visible in the foods category, which added 0.4% m/m to be up 4% on a yearly basis. That’s the fastest pace in 17 months which retailers blame to the Labour government’s tax-increasing October budget. “Tighter global supplies” for some specific products including tea and meat added to the upward price pressures, BRC said. Non-food inflation rose by 0.1% m/m, the same pace as the previous two months, thereby reducing the deflationary y/y trend to -1% from -1.2%. That’s the highest tempo in a year and confirms a bottoming out trend in place since the start of the year.

The US Treasury Department yesterday announced its net marketable borrowing estimates for the July-September 2025 and October-December 2025 quarter. It anticipates to borrow roughly $1tn in net debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850bn. This is $453 bn higher than announced in April 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows. Excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $60 bn higher than announced in April. During the October – December 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $590 bn in net debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 bn. Additional details (including the tenor distribution) will be released later today.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9288; (P) 0.9330; (R1) 0.9357; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 0.9365 will be the first sign that corrective pattern from 0.9445 has already completed. Further rise should then be seen to 0.9428/45 resistance zone. However, decisive break of 0.9292 will bring retest of 0.9218 instead.

In the bigger picture, while downside momentum has been diminishing as seen in W MACD, there is no sign of bottoming yet. EUR/CHF is still staying below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9424) and well inside long term falling channel. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9660 resistance holds. Break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption of down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1526; (P) 1.1648; (R1) 1.1711; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside as fall from 1.1829 resumed by breaking 1.1555 support. Strong support could be seen from 55 D EMA (now at 1.1538) to complete the correction. On the upside, above 1.1598 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will suggest that it's already correcting the rise from 1.0176. Deeper decline should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1829 at 1.1198.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.85; (P) 148.22; (R1) 148.91; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Firm break of 149.17 will resume whole rise from 139.87. Next target is 100% projection of 139.87 to 148.64 from 142.66 at 151.43, which is close to 151.22 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 147.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 145.84 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3320; (P) 1.3386; (R1) 1.3422; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3787 resumed by breaking through 1.3363 today. Current development suggests that it's already correcting whole rally from 1.2099. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 100% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3363 from 1.3587 at 1.3163. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3587 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3045) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7974; (P) 0.8007; (R1) 0.8068; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Price actions from 0.7871 are still seen as a corrective pattern. Further rise would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8107), but upside should be limited there. On the downside, below 0.7910 support will bring retest of 0.7871 low. However, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will indicate medium term bottoming, and target 0.8475 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6494; (P) 0.6540; (R1) 0.6567; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen between 0.6453/6224. Rally from 0.5913 might still extend through 0.6624. However, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside should be limited by 0.6713 fibonacci level on next rise. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.6453 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3705; (P) 1.3723; (R1) 1.3758; More...

USD/CAD is still bounded in range of 1.3574/3773 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected with 1.3773 intact. Break of 1.3574 will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.3538 has completed. And larger fall from 1.4791 is ready to resume through 1.3538. However, firm break of 1.3773 will argue that it's now correcting the whole fall from 1.4791 and target 1.4014 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8642; (P) 0.8700; (R1) 0.8735; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral first with current steep retreat. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 0.8678) will confirm short term topping. Deeper pullback should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8486) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7721; (P) 1.7821; (R1) 1.7874; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment. With 1.7717 support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, above 1.7972 will bring retest of 1.8094. Firm break there will resume the rise from 1.7245 to towards 1.8554 high. However, break of 1.7717 support will revive the case that rise from 1.7245 has completed. Corrective pattern from 1.8554 should have then started the third leg.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. While deeper pullback might be seen, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.