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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7757; (P) 1.7809; (R1) 1.7863; More...

EUR/AUD is extending consolidations above 1.7717 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.7703) will argue that corrective pattern from 1.8554 is already in the third leg. Deeper fall should then be seen back to 1.7245 support. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 D EMA will maintain near term bullishness. Break of 1.7872 support turned resistance will bring retest of 1.8094 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term are seen as a corrective pattern. While deeper pullback might be seen, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9292; (P) 0.9302; (R1) 0.9311; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.9428/45 resistance zone will resume the rebound from 0.9218. On the downside, firm break of 0.9296 support will bring retest of 0.9218 low instead.

In the bigger picture, while downside momentum has been diminishing as seen in W MACD, there is no sign of bottoming yet. EUR/CHF is still staying below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9437) and well inside long term falling channel. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9660 resistance holds. Break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption of down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high).

Yesterday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released, showing an increase in consumer prices. According to Forex Factory, annual CPI rose from 2.4% to 2.7%, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 2.6% rise.

As reported by Reuters, the data supports the stance of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who has repeatedly stated that the anticipated inflationary pressure—driven in part by tariffs—is a reason to refrain from further interest rate cuts.

However, President Donald Trump interpreted the data differently. On his Truth Social platform, he posted that consumer prices remain low and called for an immediate rate cut.

The market responded with a stronger US dollar—indicating that participants believe interest rates are likely to remain at current levels in the near term. Notably, the EUR/USD exchange rate fell to the 1.1600 level for the first time since late June (as indicated by the arrow).

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart

Analysing the EUR/USD chart as of 7 July, we identified:

→ A long-term ascending channel

→ A potential downward trajectory (marked by red lines)

Since then, the pair has followed the outlined path and declined by more than 1%.

It is worth noting that today, the EUR/USD price is near the lower boundary of a key trend channel, which may offer significant support — traders may look for a technical rebound from this level.

Additionally, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) at 15:30 GMT+3. These figures carry particular weight in light of potential renewed inflationary pressures. This and other upcoming data may prove decisive for the near-term direction of EUR/USD.

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All major US indices closed lower on Tuesday, 15 July, except for the Nasdaq 100, which rose 0.1% thanks to Nvidia’s continued strength. The S&P 500 hit a fresh intraday all-time high of 6,302 early in the session but reversed gains to end down 0.4%. Small caps were hit hardest, with the Russell 2000 falling 2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1%.

Disappointing earnings also weighed on sentiment. JP Morgan declined 0.7%, Wells Fargo plunged 5.5%, and BlackRock slid 5.9% after reporting Q2 results. The Dow underperformed due to its higher exposure to financials.

Sticky inflation signals stall Fed rate cut hopes and lift the US dollar

US June CPI data came in marginally cooler than expected (core CPI at 2.9% y/y vs. 3% forecast). However, tariff-related inflation fears resurfaced due to sharp monthly gains in categories like household furnishings (+1%), video/audio equipment (+1.1%), and toys (+1.8%), the steepest monthly increases in years.

The CME FedWatch tool now shows the probability of a September rate cut falling to 57%, down from as high as 70% a week ago. The Fed’s more cautious outlook helped boost the US dollar, with the Dollar Index rising for a fourth straight day (+0.6%) to a three-week high of 98.79, just shy of its 50-day moving average (98.90), a key intermediate resistance level.

Asia stock markets are resilient on positive US-China tariff rhetoric

Despite global headwinds, most Asia Pacific markets remained resilient today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%, marking its fifth straight gain and reaching a four-month high. Singapore’s Straits Times Index extended its record-breaking streak, climbing 0.2% to a fresh all-time intraday high of 4,129, its eighth consecutive day of gains.

The optimism was further reinforced by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who signalled that US-China trade talks were progressing positively. He suggested that the 12 August tariff deadline was “flexible,” easing investor fears of an immediate escalation.

Gold holds key support despite strong dollar, rebounds on stagflation fears

Gold (XAU/USD) saw only a mild pullback on Tuesday, falling 0.6% before stabilizing at its 50-day moving average (US$3,328), which acted as key support. In today’s Asia session, the precious metal rebounded 0.5% intraday. The bounce was fuelled by stagflation concerns as inflation pressures persist alongside signs of economic softening.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – Nasdaq 100 on the brink of shaping a potential minor corrective decline

Fig 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 16 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Despite the last two sessions of outperformance seen on the Nasdaq 100 against the other major US stock indices (S&P 500, DJIA, Russell 2000), technical analysis suggests that the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index is likely due for at least an imminent minor corrective decline sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase.

Since 3 July, the price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has consolidated and stalled at the upper boundary of a long-term secular ascending channel in play since the March 2020 low,

Only for the first time on Tuesday, 15 July, since the consolidation started on 3 July, the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has formed a daily bearish reversal “Gravestone Doji” candlestick pattern after a failed intraday push above the upper boundary of the long-term secular ascending channel (see Fig 2).

These observations suggest a potential “bullish exhaustion” moment on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index in light of Nvidia’s (a significant component stock of Nasdaq 100) positive news flow that allowed it to sell lower-grade H20 chips to China.

Watch the 22,920/23,020 pivotal resistance, and a break below 22,600 is likely to expose the next intermediate support zone of 22,390/22,235 in the first step.

However, a clearance above 23,020 invalidates the bearish scenario to resume the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 23,190, and 23,400/23,480 (defined by Fibonacci extension cluster levels).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6489; (P) 0.6533; (R1) 0.6557; More...

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 0.6484 support holds. Above 0.6594 will resume the rally from 0.5913 and target 0.6713 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 0.6484 will turn bias to the downside for 0.6372 support instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3687; (P) 1.3708; (R1) 1.3745; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. Overall, price actions from 1.3538 are seen as a corrective pattern, which is now in its third leg. Stronger rise could be seen and above 1.3728 will target 1.3797 resistance and probably above. On the downside, break of 1.3637 minor support will bring retest of 1.3538/55 support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.93; (P) 148.47; (R1) 149.40; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Corrective pattern from 148.64 has completed with three waves to 142.66, and rise from 139.87 is resuming. Further rally should be seen to 100% projection of 139.87 to 148.64 from 142.66 at 151.43. That is close to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. On the downside, below 147.55 minor support turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). There is no clear sign that the pattern has completed yet. But still, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7972; (P) 0.7998; (R1) 0.8043; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Strong resistance is still expected from 0.8054 to complete the corrective pattern from 0.7871. Below 0.7952 will bring retest of 0.7871 first. Firm break there will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757. However, decisive break of 0.8054 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8154) instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1566; (P) 1.1630; (R1) 1.1666; More...

EUR/USD's break of 1.1630 support argues that rise from 1.1064 has completed at 1.1829. Fall from there is either correcting this rise or the whole rally from 1.0176. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.1478). Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1829 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

The Bank of England has a new headache to deal with as headline inflation rose to 3.6%, its highest in over a year. The figure came in higher than the 3.4% which was economists expectations based on a Reuters poll.

Services price inflation, which the Bank of England sees as a better indicator of local price pressures than overall CPI, stayed at 4.7% in June, defying economists' expectations of a drop to 4.6%.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

British inflation has been climbing since hitting a three-year low of 1.7% last September. In May, the Bank of England predicted it would peak at 3.7% this September, nearly double its 2% target.

The main driver of the increase from May to June was higher transport costs, especially motor fuel, according to the ONS. A rise in motor fuel echoes US inflation released yesterday and this could in part be down to the spike in Oil prices last month during the Israel-Iran conflict.

In April, inflation jumped sharply to 3.5%, driven by higher energy and water bills, a surge in airfares, and increased costs for labor-intensive services due to higher employment taxes and a rise in the minimum wage.

Labor Market Poses a Challenge as Growth Stalls

Governor Andrew Bailey said interest rates will likely keep falling slowly because a weaker job market is slowing wage growth, and the economy's growth outlook remains weak.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves shrugged off concerns around growth in the UK only yesterday as she told bankers she would slash red tape to help reboot the economy.

Some Bank of England policymakers worry that skill shortages in the UK job market and other supply issues will keep wages growing too quickly, making it hard for inflation to return to its target soon.

Important UK labor market data is coming on Thursday. If May's payroll drop of -109k isn’t revised and June shows more declines, the pound could come under renewed selling pressure.

Market Reaction

Chancellor Rachel Reeves responded to the unexpected rise in inflation to 3.6%, acknowledging that "working people are still struggling with the cost of living."

She highlighted steps already taken, like raising the national minimum wage for three million workers, introducing free breakfast clubs in all primary schools, and extending the £3 bus fare cap.

Reeves admitted "there’s more to do" but promised to stick to the Plan for Change to help people keep more money in their pockets.

Traders pare BoE easing bets after UK CPI, seeing 49 bps this year down from around 51 bps prior to the inflation release.

The British Pound did jump immediately after the data and it will be intriguing to see if the Pound can continue its advance in the European session.

GBP/USD has been under strain of late as the pair has posted 8 consecutive days of decline.

Having broken a crucial long-term ascending trendline and the growing macro challenges, the British Pound faces a fight to hold onto its impressive gains in 2025.

GBP/USD 15M Chart, July 16, 2025

Source: TradingView.com