Asia Cheers Trump’s Health Improvement, Dollar Down
Yen and Dollar weaken in general as Asia markets recover on positive news on the situation of US President Donald Trump's coronavirus infection. Australian and Canadian Dollars are firm, but there slightly overshadowed by the Swiss Franc. But after all, movements in the markets are relatively limited, with most...
More Risk Aversion Likely after First October Surprise
Investors could have been anticipating an October surprise. But none could have expected it to come that early, with US President Donald Trump's coronavirus infections. The world has been in historically high level of uncertainty ever since the virus outbreak in Wuhan of China half a year ago. And...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Greenback’s Near-Term Outlook Masked by US Political Uncertainty
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 29, NET SHORT for USD Index futures fell -3 591 to 5 555 contracts. Speculative long positions increased +2 908 contracts and short positions slipped -683 contracts. The greenback's outlook remains uncertain in the near...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Safe Haven Buying in Gold Resumed
Net length in gold futures increased as a rise in speculative long positions was accompanied by a fall in speculative shorts. Traders also resumed accumulating gold on price correction. We expect net length in the yellow metal to rise further in the coming week as safe haven demand reemerged...
Mixed NFP Data Overshadowed by Trump’s Coronavirus Infection, Yen Staying Strong
Global markets are clearly staying in risk-off mode before weekly close. Mixed US job data was largely ignored. Eyes are staying on the development regarding US President Donald Trump's coronavirus infections, and the impact on the Presidential election which is just around a month away. Yen is currently the...
Risk-Off on First October Surprise, Trump Tested Positive for COVID
Markets suddenly turned into a risk-off mode on the first October surprise. US President Donald Trump and wife Melania had tested positive for coronavirus. Both were going to quarantine with Trump's scheduled cleared of all travels. Yen surges broadly as reaction. While Dollar follows higher, it's quickly losing momentum...
RBA Preview: Preparing the Market for Rate Cut and QE Expansion
RBA will likely use the opportunity of the upcoming meeting to prepare the market for more monetary easing in November. The stimulus measures due later this week should include reduction in the cash rate, yield curve control (YCC) target and Term Funding Facility (TFF) rate to 0.1%, from the...
Dollar Decline Paused after Better than Expected Data
Dollar attempted to edge lower earlier today but the bears are still not too committed. Selling has indeed turned to Yen in early US session, after some better than expected US data. The stocks markets are also lacking a clear direction as European indices open higher, but quickly reversed...
PMIs Suggest China’s Recovery Remained Intact in September. Yield Differential to Support CNY
The latest economic indicators show that China’s economy continued to recovery in September. NBS’ official manufacturing PMI climbed +0.5 point higher to 51.5 in September, beating consensus of 51.3. The non-manufacturing PMI also increased to 55.9 from 55.2 in August. The composite index gained +0.6 point to 55.1 last...
Dollar and Yen Pressured after Unconvincing Stock Rally
Dollar and Yen are generally weak in Asian, after being pressure overnight with a return to risk-on markets. US stocks were lifted on as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin "made a lot of progress in a lot of areas" with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on fresh stimulus. Yet, there was...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell for Three Straight Weeks, while Cushing Stock Increased
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -0.57 mmb to 1421.11 mmb in the week ended September 25. Crude oil inventory dropped -1.98 mmb (consensus: +1.57 mmb) to 492.43 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...
Markets in Range, Trapped by Low Month-End Volatility
The forex markets are generally staying in tight range today, without much reaction to better than expected job data from US and GDP from Canada. Nor was there much movements after comments from ECB President and BoE Chief Economist. Subdued month-end trading is keeping volatility very low. Nevertheless, it's...
Sleepy Markets Yawn US Debate, Focus Back to Economic Data
Dollar and Yen recover some ground in Asian session but it's unsure if this week's pull back is completed yet. There were little reactions to the President debate of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Asian markets are mixed despite some solid data out of China. DOW future is currently...
Dollar Drops Further ahead of Trump-Biden Debate
Dollar drops broadly today, partly due to month-end flows, and partly as position adjustment ahead of the first one-on-one Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Nevertheless, Yen and Canadian Dollar are slightly weaker. On the other hand, Aussie and Kiwi are picking up some steam for a...
Dollar Soft as Focus Turns to Fed Speakers, But Yen Even Weaker
Asian markets trade with a mixed tone today despite strong rebound in the US overnight. Positive sentiments couldn't carry through to the session again. Nevertheless, Yen is trading slightly weaker in general, followed by Canadian and Dollar. Aussie and Kiwi are the firmer ones together with Sterling. In particular,...
Sterling Jumps on BoE Comments, Dollar Softens as Stocks Rebound
Sterling rises broadly today after BoE Deputy Governor indicated that negative interest rate is not imminent. Rebound in the Pound somewhat lifts other European majors too. Australian Dollar is following as the second strongest for now, with help from rebound in stocks. Dollar is trading broadly lower, paring last...
Crude Oil Prices Down in 3 out of 4 Weeks. Outlook Dependent on Pandemic, OPEC+ Compliance and Libya’s Output
Crude oil prices have declined for 3 out of the past 4 weeks. the most recent weakness has been driven by concerns over the demand outlook as a third wave of coronavirus outbreak has hit Europe. This is also a reason for the narrowing in WTI-Brent spread although the...
Aussie Recovers as Markets Pare Back Expectations on Imminent RBA Cut
The markets are relatively quiet in Asian session with an empty economic calendar. Aussie recovers mildly as markets are paring back expectations of imminent RBA rate cut in October. Even Westpac pushed back the forecast to November as the theme of "Team Australia", announcement of monetary and fiscal stimulus...
More Evidence Still Needed for Dollar’s Strength and Aussie’s Weakness
Dollar and Yen ended as the strongest ones last week as global stock markets tumble. There were concerns over resurgence in coronavirus infections in Europe, with worries over a return to lockdown. Though, the US markets ended not too badly after Friday's rebound. It's still not clear if the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT in USD Index Futures could Trim Next Week on Strong Rebound in Greenback
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 22, NET SHORT for USD Index futures increased -906 to 9 146 contracts. Speculative long positions dropped -1 424 contracts and short positions slipped -518 contracts. NET SHORT will likely shrink in the coming week...