Action Insight

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -6.24 mmb to 1367.64 mmb in the week ended December 11. Crude oil inventory fell -3.14 mmb (consensus: -1.94 mmb) to 500.1 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...

The major changes in the December were forward guidance in the asset purchase program (QE) as well as upgrades in economic forecasts. The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and asset purchases at US$120B per month. The updated median dot plot suggests that no rate hike is...

Sterling and Euro rise broadly today and maintain gains in early US session. Progress in Brexit trade negotiations and stronger than expected PMIs lift both currencies as well as their respective stock markets. Canadian Dollar is currently the worst performing one for today, apparently reacting to BoC's jawboning. Risk-on...

Dollar trade with a generally soft tone today, with strong risk-on markets in the background. But overall, most major pairs and crosses are bounded inside last week's range. The economic calendar is extremely busy for the rest for the week. But there are still a couple of things to...

For QE expansion at the last meeting, we expect the BOE will keep its powder dry this month. BOE should leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%, and the size of asset purchases (QE) at 875 pound. There have been mixed developments since the November meeting. Economic data released...

The forex markets are relatively mixed today. Sterling is generally higher but it's capped by conflicting messages regarding Brexit trade negotiations. Canadian Dollar is currently second strongest, with help from mild strength in oil price. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar is the worst performing, followed by Euro...

The latest set of economic data indicates economic recovery in China continued. Growth in industrial production improved slightly, while manufacturing investment accelerated, thanks to strong exports growth. Retail sales growth accelerated, suggesting internal circulation has taken effect. Industrial production expanded +7% y/y in November, inline with expectations and up +0.1...

Australian Dollar weakest broadly today after China intensified the trade tensions with banning Australia's coal imports. Markets are relatively mixed elsewhere, with some softness in both Yen and Swiss Franc. The Pound's rebound is fading as for now, there is no confirmation on whether there would be a Brexit...

The global markets are quickly back in risk-on mode today. DOW future is back above 30k handle, as coronavirus vaccine rollout began. There seems to be some progress in the US Congress for fresh fiscal stimulus too. Dollar is under broad based selling pressure, followed by Canadian and Yen...

Sterling opens broadly higher as Brexit trade negotiation is extending through the Sunday deadline. The Pound is taking Euro and Swiss Franc slightly higher today. Nevertheless, it should be noted that no important resistance level is broken by Sterling. Traders are just lighting their shorts. Markets are rather mixed...

At the last meeting of the year, we expect the Fed to be more cautious about the near-term outlook, while more optimistic over the longer-term. The focus of the meeting will be on the adjustment of the forward guidance about the asset purchase program. It will be a qualitative,...

Sterling was in free fall last week after both UK and EU admitted that a no-deal Brexit is more likely than not. Negotiation deadline was ended to end of Sunday. Euro and Dollar, followed as the next weakest and focus turned to rally in commodity currencies. In particular, Australian...

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 8, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures decreased -2 536 contracts to 514 629 for the week. Speculative long position fell -6 251 contracts, while shorts dropped -3 715 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 8, NET SHORT of USD Index futures more than doubled to 6 486 contracts. Speculative long positions decreased -500 contracts and short positions gained +2 911 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...

Sterling's selloff accelerates further today after leaders from both EU and UK admitted that their negotiations positions are still part. No-deal Brexit is now seen as the most likely scenario, and we should know very soon by the end of Sunday. Dollar and Yen recover mildly today, on mild...

Accelerating rally in iron ore prices pushes Australian broadly higher today, on the back of steadily firm risk sentiment. The Aussie is currently the strongest one for the week, followed by New Zealand Dollar, while Canadian is not far away, with help from oil prices. Sterling remains the worst...

As promised, the ECB “recalibrated” the existing monetary policy measures at the December meeting. The aim is to ensure that the current level of stimulus remains in presence through to 2020. On the economic projections, the staff revised lower the GDP growth forecast for 2021 but higher for 2022....

Dollar falls broadly in early US session after much worse than expected jobless claims data, confirming the impact of the current wave of coronavirus pandemic. Yen is not far behind for now as second weakest. But Sterling is also facing some selling pressure on Brexit impasse. Commodity currencies are...

Sterling softened again after the Brussels meeting ended with nothing more than comments that UK and EU are still far apart. Yet, traders are still holding their bets for now. Yen and Dollar also shrug off the deep pull back in US stocks overnight. Some fresh selling is seen...

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +19.93 mmb to 1373.89 mmb in the week ended December 9. Crude oil inventory rose 15.19 mmb (consensus: -1.42 mmb) to 503.23 mmb. Stockpile increased in 4 out...