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Action Insight

RBNZ Preview – Waiting for More Hints on Negative Rate

After a big move in August, the RBNZ will likely leave the OCR unchanged at 0.25% and the cap of Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) unchanged at NZD 100B. It is, however, expected to offer more indication on the alternative policy tools to be implemented. While we expect the...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT of USD Index Futures Increased as Greenback’s Rebound Not Promising

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 15, NET SHORT for USD Index futures increased +2 482 to 8 240 contracts. Speculative long positions slipped -97 contracts and short positions gained +2 385 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Increased in Both Side as Crude Oil Price Lacks Direction

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 15, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +378 contracts to 449 744 for the week. Speculative long position rose +11 868 contracts, while shorts also gained +11 490 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

Yen Surged Again, Dollar Rally Failed, Sterling Pared Losses

Yen ended up broadly as the strongest one last week, extending this month's rebound. Domestically, political uncertainty was cleared with Yoshihide Suga took up the job of Prime Minister, ensuring continuity of Abenomics. Externally, geopolitical risks at the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait heightened while US-China relations deteriorated...

Yen Rises Further in Flip-Flopping Markets

Yen picks up some upside momentum again today while the forex markets continue to flip-flop elsewhere. Australian Dollar turn softer, followed by Canadian and Swiss Franc. Kiwi is the second strongest next to Yen, followed by Sterling and Dollar. For the week, Yen remains the strongest one. There is...

Dollar Rally Fades, Sterling Pares Losses, Yen Still Firm

Dollar is back trading as the weakest one for the week as it's earlier rally attempt faded quickly. Though, Euro and Swiss Franc are not too far behind as the next weakest. Yen is also paring some of this week's gain but remains generally firm. New Zealand Dollar is...

Sterling Plummets as BoE Hints on Negative Rates, Yen Surges

Sterling drops broadly today as BoE minutes indicated that the central bank is already discussing implementation negative interest rates. On the other hand, Yen is currently the strongest one, extending this week's strong rally. Risk aversion and falling treasury yields are both helping the Yen higher. Dollar lost some...

BOE Voted 9-0 to Keep Policy Unchanged. Signaled to Discuss with Regulator about Negative Rate Implementation

BOE voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. The asset purchase program also stayed at 745B pound in September. At the meeting, policymakers acknowledged stronger-than-expected recovery in the UK. Yet, they reiterated that the outlook remained highly uncertain as mainly brought about by the coronavirus pandemic....

Fed Shifted to Outcome-Based Forward Guidance, Upgraded Economic Projections

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset purchases program unchanged in September. There are substantial changes in the policy statement, reflecting the formal adoption of average inflation targeting. Updated economic projections revealed a more optimistic outlook for this year through to 2022. The Fed...

Dollar Surges as FOMC Risks Cleared, on Asian Risk Aversion

Dollar surges broadly today partly because FOMC announcement and projections overnight removed the risk of extra dovishness. Also, Hong Kong led decline in Asian stocks is providing extra support to the greenback. Yen is following closely as the second strongest for now. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar...

Crude Oil Price Rebounded as Production Halted by Hurricane while Inventory Fell

Crude oil price rebounded as hurricane Sally damaged production facilities while US inventory resumed decline last week. The front-month WTI crude oil contract extended gain for second day, rising to a 1.5- week high og US$40.34/bbl before settling at 40.16. The Brent contract also climbed higher. US Bureau of...

Yen Surges as Traders Look Forward to FOMC Projections

Yen rises broadly today as markets are awaiting Fed policy decision. The strength in Yen since last week seems to be related to inflation expectations. It first followed comments from an ECB official that the pandemic impact impact would eventually be demand dominate, and thus deflationary. Such view could...

Dollar Softens Mildly as Focus Turns to FOMC Statement and Projections

Dollar trades generally soft in Asian session but losses are so far limited. The greenback is actually still staying above last week's low against all but Yen and Kiwi. Major focus will turn to FOMC today and traders could finally commit to a direction, after getting Fed's new economic...

Yen Surges Broadly, Dollar and Euro Weak

Dollar trades broadly lower today but there seems to be no clear unified theme in the financial markets. Stocks are in risk-on mode, lifting the Australian Dollar. But Yen is also generally higher despite some mild recovery in treasury yields. Sterling's recovery is understandable as it's digesting some of...

Upbeat August Chinese Data Suggests PBOC to Leave Rates Unchanged for Longer

The latest set of macroecononmic indicators in China suggests that economic activities surprised to the upside in August. Growth in industrial production accelerated while retail sales gained first the first time since February. Better-than-expected data in August signals that it is less likely for PBOC to cut interest rates. Industrial...

Aussie Rallies as Chinese Data Gives Sentiment Additional Boost

Investors seemed to have put last week's selloff in stocks behind already. Asian markets, except Japan, trade generally higher following the rebound in the US overnight. Additional, upside surprises in data from China boost optimism that it's back on track for stronger rebound for the rest of the year....

AUD Strengthened on Upbeat Chinese Data, RBA Minutes Contained Little News

RBA minutes for the September meeting contained little new information. The members highlighted uncertainty of the economic outlook with lockdowns in Victoria would likely derail Australia’s recovery. Australian dollar is climbing higher at the time of writing this report. However, we believe it is not driven by the minutes...

Sterling Recovers Mildly ahead of an Eventful Week, Dollar Treads Water

Trading in the forex markets remain generally subdued for now. While US stocks are set for a rebound, currency traders are not to bothered with that. Sterling is so far the stronger one for today, as traders take profits on shorts, ahead of of the string of UK data,...

BOE Preview – BOE to Signal More Easing on Weak Recovery and Brexit Uncertainty

Renewed uncertainty of Brexit talks, sharp selloff of sterling last week and increased speculations of further rate hike have made this week's BOE meeting a closely-watched one. While the central bank is expected to leave the policy rate and QE unchanged at the meeting, we anticipate it to deliver...

NZD Mildly Higher on Lockdown Exit, Yen Awaits Breakout

New Zealand Dollar trades generally higher in otherwise quiet markets today. The news of lockdown exit is lift sentiments on Kiwi, even though upside is relatively limited. Other major forex pairs and crosses are bounded inside Friday's range though. Trading could remain subdued due to a light calendar today....