Crude Oil Price Supported by Improved Fundamentals; Upside Limited
Expiring tomorrow (May 19), the front-month WTI crude contract continues to climb higher. At the time of writing this report, price is trading narrowly around US$30/bbl, up almost 50% from end of April. Recall that last month, the WTI futures for April delivery collapsed to the negative territory before...
Sterling Weak of Negative Rate Talks, Gold Extending Up Trend
Sterling stays generally weak as another week starts. The Pound was weighed down by comments from BoE chief economists Andy Haldane, who said that negative rate was "something we'll need to look at – are looking at – with somewhat greater immediacy." Dollar is also slightly softer with mild...
Negative Interest Rate Expectations Drove Markets, Risk Reversal TBC Soon
The topic of negative central bank interest rates was a key driver in the forex markets last week. Dollar ended as the strongest one against a chorus of Fed officials expressed their objection. New Zealand Dollar, on the other hand, ended as the weakest as RBNZ was clearly preparing...
CFTC Commitments of Traders report – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD Futures
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 12, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +25 contracts to 16 450. Speculative long positions dropped -757 contracts and short positions were down -782 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures gained +1...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on Crude Oil, while Net Length on Gold Declined
Traders trimmed bets on crude oil futures. Although output cuts by OPEC+ and in the US have temporarily relieved storage, the outlook of the oil market remains uncertain. Macroeconomic data from major economies suggest that unemployment is rising. This could lead to demand disruption, and eventually cause selloff in...
Dollar Down Again of Record Retails Sales Fall, Gold Shines
Dollar weakens notably in early US session after retail sales data showed another record decline in April. Stock futures also tumble after the news In particular, gold rides on the greenback's selloff and it's set to resume larger up trend. . Nevertheless, for the day, New Zealand, Australian Dollar...
More Stimuli Needed to Support China’s Gradual Economic Recovery
Industrial production (IP) expanded +3.9% y/y in April, beating consensus of +1.5% growth and a -1.1% contraction in the prior month. The strong recovery was mainly driven by the low base effect. Production of automobile, and machinery and equipment contributed the most to the April recovery. These sectors were...
Dollar Rally Fades While Gold and Oil Rise
Gold and oil price strengthen notably in otherwise rather mixed markets. US stocks reversed initial losses overnight and closed higher. Asian markets also follow and are trading up slightly. In the currency markets, Canadian Dollar is currently the strongest one for today, thanks to oil price. Sterling and Yen...
Dollar Lifted as Trump Said Strong Dollar Now is Great, Markets in Risk Aversion Too
Dollar and Yen continue to be the strongest ones for today with help from risk aversion. Global stocks generally show weakness, from Asia to Europe to US futures. Major benchmark treasury yields also decline. The greenback is given another lift as US President Donald trump's comments. On the other...
Stocks Weighed Down By Fed Powell, Yen and Dollar Back in Control
Yen and Dollar are back in control today as Asian markets turned red, following weakness in the US overnight. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments somewhat disappointed investors. Australian Dollar weakens in general after data showed record contraction in employment. Though, Sterling is the worst one as it stays pressured...
Unexpected Decline in US Inventory Lent Support to Oil Price
The front-month WTI crude oil contract strengthened to the highest level in more than a month. The WTI-Brent spread also narrowed to the level not seen since March 31. The recovery in WTI crude price was helped by the unexpected decline in US oil inventory. The report from the...
Dollar Dips on PPI, Supported by Fed Powell
Dollar stays generally soft today so far but weakness is relatively limited. Some selling pressure was seen as poor PPI inflation data. But Fed chair Jerome Powell's comments on negative interest rates is giving the greenback a slight pop. For now, New Zealand Dollar remains the worst performing one...
Kiwi Dives after RBNZ, Fed Officials Talk Down Negative Rates
New Zealand Dollar drops broadly today following RBNZ's decision to nearly double the QE program, and indicates its openness to negative rates. Australian Dollar is following as a distant second weakest. The sharp decline in US stocks overnight doesn't carry forward to Asian markets. Other major currencies are relatively...
Dollar Tumbles on Record Core CPI Decline, and Improving Sentiments
Dollar is sold off notably in early US session after data showed record decline in core inflation reading. In the background, sentiments also improved mildly on WHO's "potentially positive data" comments. Following Dollar, Canadian is the second weakest for the day, then Yen. On the other hand, New Zealand...
Aussie Softens on Trade Tensions with China, Loss Limited
Asian markets started with mild risk aversion today but sentiments quickly stabilized. Australian Dollar is pressured after China bans four of its abattoirs, but there is no follow through selling afterwards. While the Aussie is staying soft, it's holding generally above yesterday's low for the moment. Canadian Dollar is...
China’s Inflation Slowed Further in April, Giving Room for Further Easing
Headline CPI eased to +3.3% y/y in April, from +4.3% a month ago. This also marked a two-percentage-point fall from January’s peak. While the major growth driver remained food price, it has been decelerating as the corovavirus outbreak has hurt demand. Food price gained +14.8% y/y last month, easing...
Dollar Rebounds Broadly as Investor Sentiment Turns
Dollar rebounds broadly today as investors turn cautious since European session. Fear of a second wave of coronavirus pandemic is cited by some as a reason for mild risk aversion. US-China tension is another factor named. For now, Swiss Franc is following as the second strongest, then Euro. On...
RBNZ to Maintain Dovish Tone in May, Preparing for QE Expansion
We expect RBNZ to leave its OCR at 0.25% at the May meeting. However, given the prospect of very gradual economic recovery, policymakers would maintain a dovish tone and suggest that further stimulus measures are likely. QE expansion is a likely move. The question is whether it will be...
Yen Tumbles as Markets Return to Risk Appetite
Return to risk appetite is a main theme in the markets as another week starts. Another rate move by China's PBoC support sentiments in general. Yen drops broadly as a result while Canadian and Australian Dollar strengthen. Though, New Zealand Dollar is somewhat under pressure ahead of this week's...
Risk Rally Inconclusive, Dollar Index and Gold Range Bound
Global stock markets somewhat strengthened last week as most countries continued with their coronavirus lockdown exit plan. Yet, with the exception of NASDAQ, major indices were capped below prior week's high. Tensions between US and China remained a major focus. News flows on the topic were confusing. US Trade...