Free Fall in Yields Continue, Dollar Softer as ADP Jobs Missed Expectations
Free fall in major treasury yields remain the main focus in the markets today. German 10-year bund yield hit another record low at -0.397 and is now back at -0.378, down -0.013. It closed at -0.324 last week. UK 10-year gilt yield also dropped to as low as 0.67...
Yen Surges on Falling Yields Again, Ready to Resume Up Trend
Yen surges broadly again today as major global treasury yield resumed recent free fall. US 10-year yield down -0.058 to 1.976 overnight and it's now trading further lower to 1.947. German 10-year bund yield opens lower and is down -0.025 at -0.390, continuing to make new record low. Japan...
Slump in Crude Oil Price after OPEC+ Announcement Signals More Cuts Needed to Correct Imbalance
OPEC+ agreed to extend production cuts of -1.2M bpd 9 months to March 31, 2020. The extension came in longer than market expectations of 6 months, when the group meets to renegotiate further extension in December 2019. Another surprise was the price actions of crude oil. Both benchmarks -...
Aussie Talked Up by RBA Lowe after Rate Cut, Yen Rises as German Yield Hits Record Low
Australian Dollar is trading as the strongest one for today in spite of RBA's second consecutive rate cut. Additionally buying is seen after RBA Governor Philip Lowe talked about four positive developments that could help the economy in a speech. Though, the Aussie is held in range against Dollar...
RBA Lowers Policy Rate to Fresh Record Low of 1%
As widely anticipated, RBA lowered the cash rate for a second consecutive month today. After the -25 bps cut, the policy rate has reached a fresh record low of 1.00%. At the concluding statement, it pledged to adjust the monetary policy if needed”.
On recent economic developments, RBA acknowledged that...
Australian Dollar Recovering Despite RBA Rate Cut, Dollar Maintains Gain
Dollar's rally extended overnight, following record close in S&P 500 and mild recovery in treasury yields. The greenback is retreating some gains for now. But with near term resistance against European majors broken, further rebound is now mildly in favor. Though, Dollar will still need to survives tests from...
Dollar Maintains Gain, But No Follow Through Buying Yet
Dollar continues to trade as the strongest one, riding on US-China agreement to put trade war escalation on hold. US stocks also follow global markets sharply higher, with DOW trading up over 1% at initial trading. Canadian Dollar follows closely as second strongest, with help from WTO oil's rally....
Dollar and Stocks Surge on as Fear of Trade War Escalation Eased
Dollar and stocks are give a strong boost after Trump-Xi meeting in Japan delivered what the markets expected. For now, the greenback is trading as the strongest ones while traders are revisiting the chance of Fed cut in July. Canadian Dollar is steadily firm, partly helped by rally resumption...
RBA Preview – Another -25 bps Rate Cut Expected This Week
We expect to RBA to cut the cash rate, by -25 bps, to 1% in July. Although this would be earlier than RBA’s projection in the May SoMP, it is largely in line with market expectations, which has priced in about 70% of a rate cut in July. We...
Focus Turn to US Data after Trump & Xi Delivered at G20
Expectations setting were rather well set for the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting at G20. Both sides agreed to stop raising tariffs further. But it's unsure whether they've closed the huge gap that led to collapse in trade negotiations. If the causes remain, the results would be the same no...
CFTC Commitments of Traders -NET LENGTH for USD Fell on Heightened Hopes of Fed Funds Rate Cut
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 25 shows that NET LENGTH in USD Index declined -6 183 contracts to 22 366. Speculative long positions fell -5 992 contracts while short positions added +191 contracts during the week. DXY index plunged to the lowest level...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Precious Metal Prices Soared as Gold and Silver Rallied to Multi-Year Highs
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 25, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures rose +15 716 contracts to 378 803 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -5 808 contracts but shorts declined -21 524 contracts. We expect NET LENGTH to rise...
Dollar Mildly Lower in Quiet Markets, G20 Eyed
Dollar trades broadly lower in relatively quiet markets today. Trading is rather subdued firstly due to quarter end effect. More importantly, traders are awaiting the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting. It's cautiously optimistic that some form of agreement would be made to avert further tariff escalations. But this is far...
Markets Turn Cautious With Eyes on G20, US & Eurozone Inflation
Asian markets trade broadly lower today as traders lighten up positions ahead of the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow. Yen and Swiss Franc are currently the strongest ones as sentiments turn cautious. Nevertheless, both are contained well above recent lows against other majors currencies for now. Directions in other...
Markets Going Nowhere ahead of G20, US & China Exchange Words ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
The financial markets are generally in consolidative mode, awaiting the start of the two-day G20 summit in Osaka, Japan tomorrow. For traders, main focus will be on face-to-face meeting of Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Hopes are high for some form of agreement to stop further escalations in...
Yen & Swiss Franc Lower Again as Stocks Rise on Trade Optimism
Asian markets trade broadly higher on increasing "optimism" regarding US-China trade war. Some form of agreement is anticipated out of the Trump-Xi summit on Saturday to avoid further tariff escalation. Yen and Swiss France are trading as the weakest one for more, followed by Euro. Australian and New Zealand...
Huge Decline in US Inventory Lifted Crude Oil Price
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks decreased -11.89 mmb to 1304.89 mmb in the week ended June 21. Crude oil inventory slumped -12.79 mmb to 469.58 mmb (consensus: -2.54 mmb). Inventories rose in ALL 5...
Hong Kong as Bargaining Chip in US-China Trade Talk?
Five years since the Umbrella Movement, Hong Kong has once again been in global spotlight. Just a week after a march by over a million protesters, about two million of Hongkongers took to the streets against the proposal of extradition bill amendment. The issue has caught so much international...
Sentiments Lifted by Mnuchin’s Trade Optimism, Capped by Trump’s Tariff Threats
Risk appetite firms up mildly today as lifted by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's upbeat comments regarding trade negotiation with China. There are also reports that US would delay new tariffs without deadline, to bring China back to negotiation table. However, the positive lift is capped after Trump reiterates...
RBNZ Review – Stand Pat and Stay Cautions
NZDUSD climbed higher after RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.5%, a well-anticipated move. The members maintained a dovish tone, but not more dovish than in the previous meeting. Although the central bank indicated that interest rates might need to be lower, it does not sound like it would...