US Crude Oil Inventory Fell, While Fuel Stockpile Gained
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks jumped +11.66 mmb to 1315.23 mmb in the week ended July 12. Crude oil inventory declined -3.12 mmb to 455.88 mmb (consensus: -2.69 mmb). Inventories fell in 4 out...
Markets Mixed as Inflation Data Provide No Guidance
The forex markets are generally locked in tight range today. Canadian Dollar is supported by largely expected consumer inflation data. While Loonie is the second strongest for today so far, USD/CAD is stuck in familiar range. The markets are indeed rather mixed, as seen in New Zealand Dollar being...
Dollar Maintains Gain as Focus Turns to CPI from UK, EZ and Canada
Dollar turns into consolidation in Asian session but it's able to maintain most of this week's gain. The greenback's fate remains heavily dependent on whether Fed will cut interest rates later in the month. Strong economic data so far argue against a move. Yet, it seems they're not strong...
Dollar Rebounds on Retail Sales, Sterling Shrugs Solid Job Data
Dollar rebound strongly in early US session, with support from strong retail sales data. Though, upside is somewhat capped by industrial production miss. Canadian Dollar is, instead, the strongest one. On the other hand, Sterling is the weakest one for today despite solid employment data. UK unemployment rate stayed...
RBA’s July Minutes – Cutting Rate to Weaken Aussie and Lower Unemployment Rate
RBA’s minutes for the July meeting revealed that the objective for lowering interest rate in July again was bringing down the unemployment rate and lowering the exchange rate. Unlike the June minutes, the central bank had not hinted more rate cuts would come in the near-term. Yet, we do...
UK Employment, German ZEW and US Retail Sales Watched
New Zealand Dollar strengthens broadly today after CPI picked up in Q2. On the other hand, Australian Dollar trades slightly softer after RBA minutes affirmed easing bias. Euro and Dollar strengthen mildly in Asian session. But both will face tests from economic data, including US retail sales and German...
Dollar Shrugs Solid Manufacturing Data, Sterling Leads Euro Lower
Commodity currencies remain the strongest ones for today with help from mild risk appetite. Dollar is trying to recover on stronger than expected manufacturing data, but no follow through buying is seen yet. The greenback will need more positive data release to offset recent selling pressure. On the other...
Chinese Economy Weakest in Almost Three Decades. Growth Could Fall Below 6% by Year-End.
GDP growth eased to +6.2% y/y in 2Q19, down from +6.4% in the prior quarter. This marks the weakest growth in 27 years. On a q/q saar basis, GDP growth moderated sharply to +5.6% from first quarter's +6.9%. For the first half of the year, the economy expanded +6.3%.
Growth...
Australian Dollar Higher on China Data, More Important Global Data Ahead
Markets are in mild risk seeking mode in Asian session, following record run in the US. China's GDP data slowed to 27-year low in Q2, but strong June data offered glimpse of hope. New Zealand and Australian Dollar follow the trend and strength today. Yen and Swiss Franc soften...
Dollar Reversed, Stocks Made New Records on as Fed Cut Expectations Solidified
Dollar's fortune reversed again last week as expectations of Fed July rate cut re-intensified. Such expectations also pushed US equities to new record highs. However, global equities lagged behind, with major FTSE, CAC and Nikkei closed inside prior week's range. DAX even dropped sharply. Also, 10-year and 30-year US...
China’s Strong Trade Surplus Driven by Contraction in Imports. Strong Inflation Unlikely Restrains Further Easing
China headline CPI stayed unchanged at 2.7% y/y in June. Most of the increase was driven by food price. While African swine fever has caused pork price to soar, extreme weather affected harvest, sending fruit price higher. Food price jumped +7.7% in May from a year ago. Excluding food...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Resumed Bets on Higher USD as Rate Cut Priced In
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 9, NET LENGTH in USD Index jumped +4 639 contracts to 27 056. Speculative long positions gained +2 982 contracts while short positions fell -1 657 contracts during the week. Traders raised long bets but...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Oil and Gold Prices Dropped
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 9, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures fell -2 661 contracts to 390 149 for the week. Speculative long positions dropped -7 484 contracts and shorts were down -4 823 contracts. For refined oil products, NET...
Euro Turns Soft, Ignoring Strong Industrial Production and Rebound in German Yield
While Dollar remains the worst performing one for the week, Euro is overtaking as the weakest one for today. Selloff in crosses, in particular in EUR/CHF, is dragging down the common currency. Much stronger than expected industrial production data was ignored. Instead, it's clear that ECB is on track...
Dollar Stays Weak as Expectation on Fed Cut Solidifies
Dollar weakens generally again today as remains the worst performing one for the week, on expectation of July Fed cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also indicated that the decision could be based more on continuing uncertainties, rather than deterioration of outlook. New York Fed John Williams also hinted he...
Dollar Selloff Halts after Core CPI Acceleration, Not Sign of Rebound Yet
Dollar remains the weakest one for today even though selloff somewhat stabilized in early US session. Stronger than expected core CPI is providing some support to the greenback, together with job data. However, the question remains on whether Fed will deliver the "insurance" rate cut this month, due to...
Another Week of Withdrawal Sent Crude Oil Inventory to April’s Level
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined -3.78 mmb to 1303.57 mmb in the week ended July 4. Crude oil inventory slumped -9.5 mmb to 458.99 mmb (consensus: -3.08 mmb). Inventories rose in 4 out...
Fed Cut Expectation Hammers Dollar, Lifts Stocks, But Yen Also Jumps
Now, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony, a July Fed cut is more like a done deal than not. Dollar tumbled broadly overnight and selloff continues today. Euro is the second weakest as ECB will likely be a step ahead of Fed to announce additional stimulus this month. June's...
Dovish FOMC Minutes Heighten the Case for July Rate Cut
The FOMC minutes for the June meeting maintained a dovish tone, paving the way for a Fed funds rate cut later this month. The member generally acknowledged downside risks to growth have intensified while heightened uncertainty, in particular in trade tensions, would pose negative impacts on business investment. Fed’s...
BOC Left Rate Unchanged at 1.75%. Cautious about Trade But Overall Tone Stays Neutral
BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% yesterday and maintained a neutral tone. Policymakers turned more cautious about the impact of trade tensions on economic activities and noted that global interest rates have been lower over the past months. Yet, they acknowledged that domestic growth remained upbeat. While...