Eurozone goods exports rose 9.0% yoy in Dec, imports rose 8.7% yoy

    Eurozone goods exports rose 9.0% yoy to EUR 238.7B in December. Goods imports rose 8.7% yoy to EUR 247.5B. Trade deficit came in at EUR -8.8B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 9.4% yoy to EUR 212.8B.

    In seasonally adjusted term, exports dropped -4.6% mom to EUR 239.7B. Imports dropped -2.9% to EUR 257.9B. Trade deficit widened from November’s EUR -14.4B to EUR -18.1B, larger than expectation of EUR -16.0B. Intra-Eurozone trade dropped from EUR 233.5B to EUR 230.9B.

    Full release here.

    Eurozone industrial production down -1.1% mom in Dec, EU down -0.4% mom

      Eurozone industrial production declined -1.1% mom in December, worse than expectation of -0.8% mom. Production of intermediate goods fell by -2.8%, durable consumer goods by -1.4%, non-durable consumer goods by -1.0% and capital goods by -0.4%, while production of energy grew by 1.3%.

      EU industrial production dropped -0.4% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases were registered in Ireland (-8.5%), Luxembourg (-5.2%) and Lithuania (-4.0%). The highest increases were observed in Denmark (+13.5%), Portugal (+4.1%) and Hungary (+3.8%).

      Full release here.

      ECB de Cos: Recent inflation data are somewhat encouraging

        ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said, “recent data on euro area inflation and some of its key determinants are somewhat encouraging, but the overall situation still requires caution”.

        But he added that the evidence so far was very preliminary. Careful monitoring is required in some areas, including residual pass-through of inflation shocks, and the symmetry of pass-through of energy price delcines to core inflation and wages, as well ass the effects of Chinese reopening.

        “All these will have to be assessed as part of the full projections exercise under way in the run-up to our March meeting,” De Cos said.

        UK CPI slowed more than expected to 10.1% yoy in Jan

          UK CPI slowed from 10.5% yoy to 10.1% yoy in January, below expectation of 10.3% yoy. CPI core slowed from 6.3% yoy to 5.8% yoy, below expectation of 6.2% yoy.

          The largest downward contribution to annual inflation came from transport (particularly passenger transport and motor fuels), and restaurants and hotels, with rising prices in alcoholic beverages and tobacco making the largest partially offsetting upward contribution to the change.

          Also released, RPI came in at 0.0% mom, 13.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 13.2% yoy. PPI input was at -0.1% mom, 14.1% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 14.7% yoy. PPI output was at 0.5% mom, 13.5% yoy, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 14.4% yoy. PPI core output was at 0.6% mom, 11.1% yoy, versus expectation of 0.7% mom, 11.9% yoy.

          Full CPI release here.

          RBA Lowe: I don’t think we’re at the peak of interest rate yet

            RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a Senate hearing, “I don’t think we’re at the peak (on interest rate) yet, but how far we have to go up I don’t know.” He noted that inflation, which is currently sitting at 7.8%, was still “wage too high”. Unemployment would need to rise before there were any major changes to inflation.

            “I understand why some people focus on the risks on the one side, but we’ve got to be attentive to the risk from higher inflation,” Lowe warned. “It’s corrosive for the economy. And all the evidence is if inflation stays high for too long, expectations adjust and that leads to higher interest rates and more unemployment..”

            “The risks are two sided, and we’re trying to navigate our way through a narrow path.”

            Fed Williams: We need all the gears turning at the right pace

              New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday, “We will we stay the course until our job is done… We must restore balance to the economy and bring inflation down to 2 percent on a sustained basis.”

              “We need all the gears turning at the right pace to restore balance between demand and supply in the entire economy,” said Williams. “We still have some way to go to achieve that goal.”

              He expects core inflation, as measured by core PCE reading at 4.4% in December, to fall to 3% this year and then 2% over the next few years. Growth will likely slow to just 1% this year, with unemployment rate to rise to between 4% and 5%.

              Fed Harker: It’s going to be above 5%

                Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker commented on yesterday’s inflation report and said “it was good and it was moving down, but not quickly.” He added that FOMC will have to “let the data dictate” tightening, and, “It’s going to be above 5% in the Fed funds rate. How much above 5? It’s going to depend a lot on what we’re seeing.”

                “In my view, we are not done yet… but we are likely close,” he said. “At some point this year, I expect that the policy rate will be restrictive enough that we will hold rates in place and let monetary policy do its work,” he noted in a prepared speech”.

                “Rates are now at a level that allow us to slow down and proceed cautiously and, to my mind, the days of us raising 75 basis points at a time have surely passed,” Harker said. “Just at the last meeting, I voted for a hike of 25 basis points — what some would call slow but actually is closer to cruising speed when it comes to tightening.”

                Fed Logan: We shouldn’t lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates

                  Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said, “we must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated, if such a path is necessary to respond to changes in the economic outlook or to offset any undesired easing in conditions.”

                  “And even after we have enough evidence that we don’t need to raise rates at some future meeting, we’ll need to remain flexible and tighten further if changes in the economic outlook or financial conditions call for it,” she added.

                  “The most important risk I see is that if we tighten too little, the economy will remain overheated and we will fail to keep inflation in check,” Logan said. “That could trigger a self-fulfilling spiral of unanchored inflation expectations that would be very costly to stop.”

                  “My own view is that, given the risks, we shouldn’t lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates,” she said.

                  Fed Barkin: Gonna be a lot more inertia, persistence to inflation

                    Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told BloombergTV that today’s US CPI data is “about as expected”.

                    “Inflation is normalizing but it’s coming down slowly. I just think there’s gonna be a lot more inertia, a lot more persistence to inflation than maybe we’d all want,” he added.

                    US CPI slowed to 6.4% yoy in Jan, Core CPI down to 5.6% yoy

                      US CPI rose 0.5% mom in January while CPI core rose 0.4% mom. Both matched expectations. Food index rose 0.5% mom while energy index rose 2.0% mom.

                      Over the last 12 months, CPI slowed from 6.5% yoy to 6.4% yoy, above expectation of 6.2% yoy. That’s nonetheless the lowest reading since October 2021. CPI core slowed from 5.7% yoy to 5.6% yoy, above expectation of 5.5% yoy, but was the lowest since December 2021. Energy index rose 8.7% yoy while food index rose 10.1% yoy.

                      Full release here.

                      ECB Makhlouf: I’m open to acting forcefully to bring inflation down

                        ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf told WSJ, “I’m open to acting forcefully to get inflation down to our target.” He noted that interest rate could rise to above 3.5% and stay there.

                        Regarding speculations that ECB would cut interest this year, Makhlouf said, “I think that really is going too far… We’ll reach a point where we’re going to, then plateau.”

                        “I see the ECB as putting up interest rates after the March meeting…Even though inflation is coming down it’s still way above our target,” Makhlouf added.

                        UK payrolled employees rose 102k in Jan, unemployment rate at 3.7% in Dec

                          In January, UK payrolled employees rose 0.3% mom or 102k. Comparing with the same month a year ago, payrolled employees rose 2.6% yoy or 768k. Median monthly pay rose 6.8% yoy. Claimant count dropped -12.9k, versus expectation of 9k rise.

                          In the three months to December, unemployment rate came in at 3.7%, 0.1% higher than the three-month period. Employment rate was at 75.6%, 0.2% higher than the previous three-month period. Economic inactivity rate was at 21.4%, 0.3% lower than the previous three-month period. Average earnings excluding bonus was up 6.7% 3moy, above expectation of 6.5%. Average earnings including bonus was up 5.9% 3moy, below expectation of 6.2%.

                          Full release here.

                          Japan GDP grew 0.2% in Q4 only, missed expectations

                            Japan GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q4, below expectation of 0.5% qoq. In annualized term, GDP rose 0.6%, below expectation of 2.0%. GDP deflator rose 1.1% yoy, matched expectations. For the full year of 2022, GDP expanded 1.1%, slowed from 2021’s 2.1%.

                            Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto said after the release, “Rising inflation and the global slowdown are risks… But corporate spending appetite hasn’t cooled … we’re not too pessimistic about the outlook.”

                            Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “With global monetary tightening continuing, the slowdown in overseas economies could still drag on Japan’s economy as well. We also need to pay attention to the impact from inflation, supply constraints, volatility in financial markets and the spread of Covid cases in China.”

                            Separately, it’s confirmed that the government nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor, when Haruhiko Kuroda’s term ends on April 8. Ueda is a 71-year-old former BoJ board member and an academic at Kyoritsu Women’s University.

                            RBNZ survey: OCR expected to rise to 5% by year end

                              According to RBNZ Survey of Expectations (Business), one-year inflation expectations rose slightly from 5.08% to 5.11% in February quarter. The reading was similar to value from the 1990 survey when actual CPI was 7.60%.

                              On the other hand, two-year inflation expected dropped further from 3.62% to 3.30%. The spread also narrowed, with no respondent answering below 2.00% or above 6.00%.

                              Official Cash Rate (OCR) expectations increased notably by 74 basis points from 4.25% to 4.89% by the end of this quarter. OCR is expected rise further to 5.00% by the end of the year, up from 4.67%.

                              Full release here.

                              Australia NAB business confidence rose to 6, conditions rose to 18

                                Australia NAB Business Confidence rose further from 0 to 6 in January. Business Conditions also improved from 13 to 18. Looking at some details, trading conditions rose from 20 to 28. Profitability conditions rose from 13 to 17. Employment conditions rose from 9 to 10.

                                NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster: “Business conditions picked back up in January after three months of softening in late 2022. There were strong increases in conditions for ‘upstream’ sectors such as wholesale, construction and manufacturing, and importantly, conditions in the more consumer-facing industries remained very strong.”

                                “Confidence dipped into negative territory late in 2022 but is now back around the average after rebounding over the past two months. The improvement in confidence suggest firms have a more optimistic outlook as concerns about global growth prospects ease, while strong conditions are also providing evidence that the economy is more resilient than previously expected.”

                                Full release here.

                                Australia consumer sentiment dropped back to 78.5, pressures bearing down on consumer becoming intense

                                  Australia Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell -6.9%mom from 84.3 to 78.5 in February. The reading was already below the trough of 79.0 as seen in the global financial crisis, but above the 75.6 low in April 2020 when the pandemic first hit.

                                  Westpac noted: “Cost of living pressures and interest rate rises continue to weigh heavily. Hopes of some easing in both have been dashed by the strong December quarter CPI and the RBA’s resumption of its interest rate tightening cycle.”

                                  Regarding RBA policy, Westpac expects another 25bps hike to 3.60% on March 7, a pause in April, and then a final 35bps hike in May to 3.85%.

                                  It added, “The consumer sentiment survey continues to give a very clear warning that the pressures bearing down on the consumer are becoming intense. While spending has held up relatively well to date, we expect an abrupt slowdown to show through in coming months.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Fed Bowman: It will be necessary to further tighten monetary policy

                                    Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech, “we are still far from achieving price stability, and I expect that it will be necessary to further tighten monetary policy to bring inflation down toward our goal”.

                                    “My views on the future path of monetary policy will continue to be informed by the incoming data and its implications for the outlook,” she said.

                                    “I will continue to look for consistent evidence that inflation remains on a downward path when considering further rate increases and at what point we will have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance for the policy rate.”

                                    Full speech here.

                                    European commission upgrades 2023 growth forecasts, lowers inflation slightly

                                      In the Winter interim Forecast, European commission upgraded growth projections for Eurozone in 2023 and downgraded inflation projections.

                                      “Europe’s economy is proving resilient in the face of current challenges. We were able to narrowly avoid a recession. We are somewhat more optimistic about growth prospects and the projected decline in inflation this year,” said Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People.

                                      “We have entered 2023 on a firmer footing than anticipated: the risks of recession and gas shortages have faded and unemployment remains at a record low,” said Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy.

                                      GDP growth forecasts for:

                                      • 2023 at 0.9% (upgraded from Autumn’s 0.3%).
                                      • 2024 at 1.5% (unchanged).

                                      HICP inflation forecasts for:

                                      • 2023 at 5.6% (downgraded from 6.1%).
                                      • 2024 at 2.5% (downgraded from 2.6%).

                                      Full release here.

                                      ECB Centeno: For sure, we’re much closer to that terminal rate than before

                                        ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno told BloombergTV, “for sure, we’re much closer to that terminal rate than before… We’re approaching it and I think March will be a great moment for us to be very clear about it.”

                                        Meanwhile, for the central bank to slow tightening pace from current 50bps per meeting, Centeno said, “we really need to see inflation converging to 2% in the medium term”.

                                        He added, the new forecasts in March are “going to tell us exactly where we are in that process”.

                                        Swiss CPI bounce back to 3.3% yoy in Jan

                                          Swiss CPI rose 0.6% mom in January, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) was flat mom. Domestic product prices rose 1.0% mom while imported product prices dropped -0.6% mom.

                                          Compared with the same month of the previous year, CPI accelerated from 2.8% yoy to 3.3% yoy, well above expectation of 2.9% yoy. Core CPI rose from 2.0% yoy to 2.2% yoy. Domestic product inflation jumped from 1.9% yoy to 2.6% yoy. Imported product inflation slowed from 5.8% yoy to 5.2% yoy.

                                          Full release here.