New Zealand BNZ manufacturing rose to 53.8

    New Zealand BNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose slightly from 53.6 to 53.8 in March. Production dropped from 51.7 to 50.9. Employment rose from 52.0 to 52.4. New orders rose from 58.6 to 61.0. Finished stocks rose from 50.2 to 53.5. Deliveries dropped from 53.1 to 51.9.

    BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel stated that “Omicron’s impact may not be as harsh as the first 2020 COVID lockdown or last year’s Delta lockdown, but it’s there. Production has struggled, with the index slipping to 50.9 in March and a bit further below its long-term average.”

    Full release here.

    Fed Waller: It’s a good time to do aggressive actions

      Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a CNBC interview that preferred a “front-loading approach” on tightening. So, “a 50-basis-point hike in May would be consistent with that, and possibly more in June and July.”

      “I think we’re going to deal with inflation. We’ve laid out our plans,” he said. “We’re in a position where the economy’s strong, so this is a good time to do aggressive actions because the economy can take it.”

      “I think we want to get above neutral certainly by the latter half of the year, and we need to get closer to neutral as soon as possible,” Waller added.

      BoC Macklem: Impact of invasion of Ukraine likely to be small

        In the post meeting press conference, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said, the impact of the invasion of Ukraine on Canadian economic is “likely to be small” for two reasons. Firstly, “our economic links to Ukraine and Russia are very limited”. Secondly, “while the war has reduced global growth overall, it has increased the demand and prices for commodities we produce and export, such as oil, potash and wheat.”

        He also said Canadians should expect interest rates to “continue to rise toward more normal settings”. BoC estimates the neutral interest rate to be “between 2% and 3%”. After today’s rate hike, policy rate at 1% is “still well below neutral” and “below the pre-pandemic policy rate of 1.75%”.

        Full press conference statement here.

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        BoC hikes by 50bps, starts QT, maintains tightening bias

          BoC raises overnight rate by 50bps to 1.00% as widely expected. The Bank Rate and deposit rate are increased to 1.25% and 1.00% respectively. Additionally, BoC announced to end the asset reinvestment phase and starts quantitative tightening, effect April 25.

          BoC also maintains tightening bias, and said, “with the economy moving into excess demand and inflation persisting well above target, the Governing Council judges that interest rates will need to rise further.” The timing and pace of further rate hikes will be guided by ongoing assessment of the economy.

          In the Monetary Policy Report, BoC projects the Canadian economy to growth by 4.25% in 2022, then slow to 3.25% in 2023 and then 2.25% in 2024. CPI inflation is projected to average almost 6% in H1 2022, and remain “well above the control range through this year”. CPI is then expected to ease to 2.25% in H2 of 2023, and return to 2% target in 2024. But “there is an increasing risk that expectation s of elevated inflation could become entrenched.

          Full statement here.

          US PPI rose 1.4% mom, 11.2% yoy in Mar, record 12-month increase

            US PPI for final demand rose 1.4% mom in March, above expectation of 1.1% mom. For the 12-month period, PPI accelerated to 11.2% yoy, up from 10.2% yoy, above expectation of 10.5% yoy. That’s also the largest increase since the 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

            PPI for final demand goods rose 2.3% mom while PPI for final demand services rose 0.9% mom. PPI final demand less goods, energy and trade services rose 0.9% mom, fastest since January 2021. For the 12 months, PPI for final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 7.0% yoy.

            Full release here.

            German economists warn of GDP contraction and record inflation in case of Russian energy ban

              In the Joint Economic Forecast, Germany’s government advisors warned of a contraction in the economy next year in case of a full halt in Russian natural gas imports. Inflation could also be pushed further the post-war record.

              In the baseline scenarios, GDP is estimated to grow 2.7% in 2022 (revised down from fall report’s 4.8%), and 3.1% in 2023 (revised up from 1.9%). Inflation is forecast to hit 6.1% in 2022, highest number in 40 years, then slow to 2.8% in 2023.

              However, in case of a Russian energy supply stop, GDP would growth only 1.9% in 2022, and then contract -2.2% in 2023. Inflation will rise further to 7.3% in 2022, a record-high in post-war Germany, then slow to 5% in 2023.

              “If gas supplies were to be cut off, the German economy would undergo a sharp recession. In terms of economic policy, it would then be important to support marketable production structures without halting structural change. This change will accelerate for gas-intensive industries even without a boycott, as dependence on Russian supplies, which have been available at favorable prices up to now, is to be overcome quickly anyway,”Stefan Kooths, vice president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said.

              “Policymakers should be careful not to provide poorly targeted transfers to cushion high energy prices. If such support schemes are handed out on a wide front, it will further drive up inflation and undermine the important signaling effect of higher energy prices. This in turn exacerbates the problems of low-income households and increases overall economic costs.”

              Full release here.

               

              BoJ Kuroda to underpin recovery by patiently sustaining current powerful monetary easing

                BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a speech today that the economy was expected to pick up on improvement in consumption and robust overseas demand. “The outlook, however, remains highly uncertain due to the impact of the pandemic, as well as developments regarding Ukraine and the impact on commodity prices,” he warned.

                Additionally, “recent rising inflation, driven by higher import costs, weighs on Japan’s economy by reducing households’ real income and corporate profits,” Kuroda said. “BOJ will underpin economy’s recovery from pandemic by patiently sustaining current powerful monetary easing.”

                 

                Fed Bullard: Getting to neutral isn’t going to be enough

                  St Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an FT interview, there’s “a bit of a fantasy” in current policy in centrals banks to think thank inflation could be brought down by moving interest rate to neutral.

                  “Neutral is not putting downward pressure on inflation. It’s just ceasing to put upward pressure on inflation,” he said. “We have to put downward pressure on the component of inflation that we think is persistent.”

                  “Getting to neutral isn’t going to be enough it doesn’t look like, because while some of the inflation may moderate naturally . . . there will be a component of it which won’t,” he added.

                  Bullard also warned that this week’s CPI report just ” underscores the urgency that the Fed is behind the curve and needs to get moving.”

                  “If markets and households get the idea that the Fed’s not going to do the right thing and not going to keep inflation under control, then you have to gain credibility by actually doing things that show them that you are serious,” he said.

                  UK CPI jumped to 7% in Mar, highest since 1992

                    UK CPI rose 1.1% mom in March, above expectation of 0.7% mom. For the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 6.2% yoy to 7.0% yoy, above expectation of 6.7% yoy. That’s the highest rate in the historic modeeled series since March 1992, when it stood at 7.1% yoy. RPI rose 1.0% mom, 9.0% yoy, versus expectation of 0.9% mom, 8.8% yoy.

                    Also released, PPI input came in at 5.2% mom, 19.2% yoy, above expectation of 0.5% mom, 13.4% yoy. PPI output rose 2.0% mom, 11.9% yoy, above expectation of 0.7% mom, 10.2% yoy. CCPI output core rose 2.0% mom, 12.0% yoy, above expectation of 0.9% mom, 10.6% yoy.

                    Full CPI release here.

                    BoC to hike 50bps, a look at EUR/CAD

                      BoC is widely expected to raise interest rate by 50bps to 1.00% today, to curb inflation which was already at a 30-year high. That would be the first half a percentage point hike since May 2000. The tightening cycle will continue for sure, with some expecting to overnight rate hit 2.50% level by the end of the year. Another point to note is BoC would probably start the plan to unwind its balance sheet, and the pace will be closely watched.

                      Here are some previews:

                      Canadian Dollar is one of the stronger ones for the month, but rally stalled, following the pull back in oil prices. EUR/CAD’s recovery from 1.3586 temporary low might have completed at 1.3763, after failing to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA. 1.3586 low will be back in focus today. Break there will extend larger down trend to 161.8% projection of 1.5096 to 1.4162 from 1.4633 at 1.3122. Meanwhile, break of 1.3763 will extend the recovery. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3977 resistance holds.

                      NZD/USD gets not much support from RBNZ hike

                        NZD/USD just receive very brief lift from larger than expected RBNZ rate hike. It struggles to break through 4 hour 55 EMA firmly and risk is mildly on the downside. Break of 0.6805 temporary low will resume the fall from 0.7033 to 0.6728 support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 0.6728 has completed at 0.7033, and bring retest of 0.6528 low.

                        More importantly, break of 0.6728 support should also confirm rejection by trend line resistance, which in turn suggests that the choppy decline from 0.7463 is still in progress for another fall through 0.6528 low.

                        RBNZ hikes by 50bps to 1.50%, path of least regret

                          RBNZ raises Official Cash Rate by 50bps to 1.50%, larger than expectation of a 25bps hike. That’s also the biggest rate increase in 22 years.

                          It said in the statement that “moving the OCR to a more neutral stance sooner will reduce the risks of rising inflation expectations.  A larger move now also provides more policy flexibility ahead in light of the highly uncertain global economic environment.”

                          Also, “the Committee agreed that their policy ‘path of least regret’ is to increase the OCR by more now, rather than later, to head off rising inflation expectations and minimise any unnecessary volatility in output, interest rates, and the exchange rate in the future.”

                          Full statement here.

                          Australia Westpac consumer sentiment dropped to 95.8, on interest rate, inflation and war

                            Australia Westpac consumer sentiment index dropped -0.9% to 95.8 in April, down from March’s 96.6. That’s the lowest level since September 2020. Westpac said “concerns around interest rates and inflation were starting to weigh on confidence… compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an associated spike in petrol prices, and severe weather events.”

                            Westpac expects RBA to raise interest rate at June meeting, after reviewing data releases “over coming months”. Once the tightening cycle starts, Westpac expects a series of rate hikes in most months in 2022, with a pause in September. Further rate hikes can be expected in first half of 2023 and the cash rate would peak at around 2% by June next year.

                            Full release here.

                            Fed Barkin: Best short-term policy path is rapid to neutral

                              Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said yesterday, “the best short-term path for us is to move rapidly to the neutral range and then test whether pandemic-era inflation pressures are easing, and how persistent inflation has become. If necessary, we can move further.”

                              He added that the actions to combat inflation doesn’t “necessarily require a hard landing.” In fact, “it might help avoid one by convincing individuals and firms that the Fed is committed to our target, thereby cementing inflation expectations.”

                              Barkin also said that the Fed needs to be “crystal clear that a growing economy requires stable prices, and that we will remain committed to addressing inflationary gusts.”

                              US CPI rose to 8.5% yoy, core CPI rose to 6.5% yoy, highest since early 80s

                                US CPI rose 1.2% mom in March, above expectation of 1.1% mom. CPI core rose 0.3% mom, below expectation of 0.5% mom.

                                For the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 7.9% yoy to 8.5% yoy, above expectation of 8.3% yoy. That’s the highest annual rate since December 1981.

                                CPI core ticked up from 6.4% yoy to 6.5% yoy, below expectation of 6.6% yoy. That’s the fastest 12-month increase since August 1982.

                                Energy index rose 32.0% yoy while goods index rose 8.8% yoy, largest 12-month increase since May 1981.

                                Full release here.

                                Germany ZEW economic sentiment dropped to -41, prospect of stagflation over next six months remains

                                  Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped from -39.3 to -41 in April, but was better than expectation of -48. Current Situation Index dropped from -21.4 to -30.8, above expectation of -35.0. Inflation expectations dropped -43.4 pts to 26.8.

                                  Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped from -38.7 to -43.0, above expectation of -46.5. Current Situation index dropped -6.6 pts to -28.5. Inflation expectations dropped -43.6 pts to 25.9.

                                  “The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment remains at a low level. The experts are pessimistic about the current economic situation and assume that it will continue to deteriorate. The decline in inflation expectations, which cuts the previous month’s considerable increase by about half, gives some cause for hope. However, the prospect of stagflation over the next six months remains,” comments ZEW President Achim Wambach.

                                  Full release here.

                                  UK payrolled employees rose 35k in Mar, unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in Feb

                                    UK payrolled employees rose 35k in March, comparing to February. Number of payrolled employees were 544k or 1.9% above prepandemic level in February 2020. Claimant count dropped -46.9k, larger than expectation of -41.1k.

                                    In the three months to February, unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% matched expectations. That’s -0.2% lower than the previous three-month period, and -0.1% below pre-pandemic levels. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.4% over the year, below expectation of 5.7%. Average earnings excluding bonus jumped 4.0% over the year, above expectation of 3.7%.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Australia NAB business confidence rose to 16, strong rebound led by consumer demand

                                      Australia NAB business confidence rose from 13 to 16 in March. Business conditions rose from 9 to 18. Looking at some details, trading conditions rose from 11 to 24. Profitability conditions rose from 5 to 13. Employment conditions rose from 8 to 12.

                                      “A surge in business conditions headlined a really strong March survey,” said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. “Businesses reported very strong trading conditions and a sharp rise in profitability, which indicates demand is continuing to hold up as the economy rebounds from Omicron and growth gathers momentum.”

                                      “Business confidence continued to improve in March, with little evidence of any adverse impact from events in Ukraine,” said Oster. “The outlook also strengthened in terms of forward orders which points to ongoing economic growth over coming months.”

                                      “Overall, the results depict a very strong rebound, led by strong consumer demand.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Japan PPI rose 7.3% yoy in Mar, index at highest level since 1982

                                        Japan corporate goods price index rose 7.3% yoy in March, slowed from 9.7% yoy but beat expectation of 9.3% yoy. The March index, at 112.0, was the highest level since December 1982. The yen-based import price index surged 33.4% yoy, signaling that Yen’s depreciation could be amplifying import inflation.

                                        Separately, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned, “The government will closely monitor developments in the foreign exchange market, including the recent depreciation of the yen with a sense of vigilance. That includes the impact on the Japanese economy.”

                                        Fed Evans: Optionality of not going too far too quickly is important

                                          Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday that 50bps rate hike in May is “obviously worthy of consideration; perhaps it’s highly likely even if you want to get to neutral by December.” But he also emphasized, “the optionality of not going too far too quickly is important.”

                                          He added that but the end of the year, Fed will know a lot more about inflation. “Is it going to be that some of these pricing pressures have crested, and they start coming down? Or are they going to stay high — or are they going to be higher?” Evans said. “And if it’s because of supply concerns, real resource pressures, there’s going to be a lot of gnashing-of-teeth angst over the inflation versus the concern for the economy. And I think finding the right balance is going to always be at a premium.”