Wed, Apr 24, 2024 @ 19:55 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 207

Live Comments

Latest

Australia unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, lowest since 2008

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    Australia employment grew 64.8k in December to 13.242m, well above expectation of 30.0k. Full time jobs rose 41.5k while part-time jobs rose 23.3k. Unemployment rate dropped from 4.6% to 4.2%, better than expectation of 4.5%. That’s also the lowest rate since August 2008. Participation rate was unchanged at 66.1%. Hours worked rose 1.0% or 18.2m hours.

    Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said: “The latest data shows further recovery in employment following the large 366,000 increase in November. This provides an indication of the state of the labour market in the first two weeks of December, before the large increase in COVID cases later in the month.”

    “This is the lowest unemployment rate since August 2008, just before the start of the Global Financial Crisis and Lehman Brothers collapse, when it was 4.0 per cent. This is also close to the lowest unemployment rate in the monthly series – February 2008 – and for a rate below 4.0 we need to look back to the 1970’s when the survey was quarterly,” Javis added.

    Full release here.

    Gold resumes rebound, targeting 1861 next

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      Lagging behind Silver a little bit, Gold also resumes rebound from 1752.32 by breaking through 1831.66 and hits as high as 1837.12 so far. Further rally should now be seen as long as 1805.59 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 1752.32 to 1831.66 from 1782.48 at 1861.82.

      But the main question is whether it’s ready to break out from the medium term range set at 1676.65. We’ll monitor the reaction to 1861.82. Sustained break there could trigger upside acceleration through 1877.05 to 161.8% projection at 1910.85, and set the stage for breakout. However, rejection by 1861.82, or failure to even hit it, will keep medium term outlook neutral for more sideway trading.

      BoE Bailey: Higher inflation could restrain demand in the economy

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told the parliament’s Treasury Committee, that higher inflation could hit demand and employment, eventually bring prices down.

        “This a hard thing to say … but if you get pressure on cost of living, pressure on real earnings, that will tend to restrain demand in the economy… and that could lead to an output gap opening up, and it could eventually of course lead to higher unemployment and that would bring inflation down,” he said.

        “I don’t want to suggest that … were we to consider it necessary, we don’t have to take any action in terms of the Bank of England’s action on interest rates. We would obviously judge that ourselves. But there is another channel there which would weaken demand in the economy,” he added.

        Canada CPI rose to 4.8% yoy in Dec, highest since 1991

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          Canada CPI ticked up from 4.7% yoy to 4.8% yoy in December above expectation of 4.7% yoy. That’s the highest level since September 1991. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 4.0% yoy. On monthly basis, CPI dropped -0.1% mom, first decline since December 2020, in response to lower demand due to Omicron.

          CPI common rose from 2.0% yoy to 2.1% yoy matched expectations. CPI median rose from 2.8% yoy to 3.0% yoy, above expectation of 2.9% yoy. CPI trimmed jumped from 3.4% yoy to 3.7% yoy, above expectation of 3.4% yoy.

          Full release here.

          Silver resumes rebound from 21.39, targeting 23.90 first

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            Silver’s rebound from 21.39 resumed by breaking through 23.42 and hitting as high as 23.63 so far. Further rise is now in favor as long as 22.79 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 21.39 to 23.42 from 21.93 at 23.90.

            The main question is still on whether corrective pattern from 30.07 has completed as a five-wave descending triangle at 21.39. Break of 23.90 projection level will affirm the bullish case. Upside acceleration could then follow to 161.8% projection at 25.21, which is close to 25.39.

            However, rejection by 21.39 will keep the rebound from 21.39 corrective and maintain medium term bearishness.

            UK CPI accelerated to 5.4% yoy in Dec, core CPI rose to 4.2% yoy

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              UK CPI accelerated to 5.4% yoy in December, up from 5.1%, above expectation of 5.2% yoy. This is the highest reading since record began in 1997. CPI core rose to 4.2% yoy, up from 4.0% yoy, above expectation of 4.0% yoy.

              Also released, PPI input came in at -0.2% mom, 13.5% yoy, versus expectation of 0.7% mom, 13.7% yoy. PPI output was at 0.3% mom, 0.6% yoy, versus expectation of 0.6% mom, 9.4% yoy. PPI output core was at 0.5% mom, 8.7% yoy, versus expectation of 0.8% mom, 8.6% yoy.

              Full CPI release here.

              NASDAQ lost -2.6% while 10-yr yield extends up trend

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Major US stock indexes, particularly the NASDAQ tumbled sharply overnight, while benchmark treasury yields surged. Investors are still in the process of adjusting to the evolution of a more aggressive Fed in terms of stimulus withdrawal. At the same time, it’s unsure when the no-longer-transitory inflation would start easing down, and Fed’s response to that.

                NASDAQ dropped -2.6% to close at 14506.89. The development is not a surprise as price actions from 16212.22 are seen as correcting the up trend from 10822.57 to 16212.22. Deeper fall could be seen. But we’d expect strong support around 14100/14200 to contain downside to bring rebound. The support zone coincides with 14715.11 resistance turned support, 14181.69 structural support, and 38.2% retracement of 10822.57 to 16212.22 at 14153.37. However, sustained break of this level will argue that NASDAQ is already in a larger scale correction.

                10-year yield rose 0.093 to close at 1.865. The medium term up trend is back in full force. 2% handle now looks rather approachable. But TNX should start to feel heavy above there. There should be strong resistance from 2.16/18 zone to repel the rally. This is a cluster level of 61.8% projection of 0.398 to 1.765 from 1.343 at 2.187 and 61.8% retracement of 3.248 to 0.398 at 2.159. But then, a strong break there would indicate some substantial underlying development is underway.

                 

                WTI oil hits 7-yr high, EUR/CAD downside breakout

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  WTI crude oil surged through a key resistance overnight and hit the highest level since 2014. The outage of Turkey’s Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline after an explosion was a factor causing concerns over supplies. In the background, there are also geopolitical issues surrounding Russia.

                  With 85.92 resistance taken out, WTI crude oil is resuming up trend from the 2020 spike low. For the near term, further rally is expected as long as 81.60 support holds. Next target 90 handle. But WTI could try to hit 261.8% projection of 62.90 to 73.66 from 66.46 at 94.62 before topping.

                  EUR/CAD followed and broke 1.4162 low to resume the down trend from 1.5991. Near term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.4357 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.5096 to 1.4162 from 1.4644 at 1.4067. Firm break there could trigger downside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3710.

                  Australia consumer sentiment dropped to 102.2 in Jan, cautiously pessimistic on economic conditions

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    Australia Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index dropped from 104.3 to 102.2 in January. The -2% decline was much better than the -5.2% fall during the first month of the delta outbreak in New South Wales, the -6.1% drop in Victoria’s second wave in 2020, not to mention the epic -17.7% collapse in early 2020.

                    The ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index dropped -9.6% from 104.9 to 94.8, a swing from “cautious optimism to cautious pessimism”. 55% of respondents, an outright majority, expected mortgage interest rates to rise over the next 12 months. Unemployment Expectations Index increased by 8.2% to 112.7, marking a significant deterioration.

                    RBA would make a decision on the bond purchases program at the February 1 meeting. Westpac expects the central bank to choose to “scale back rather than full wind down, in response to the sudden emergence of Omicron. But that would depend on the upcoming employment and inflation data.

                    Full release here.

                    US Empire state manufacturing dived to -0.7, expectations firm

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      US Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business conditions index dropped sharply from 31.9 to -0.7 in January. Twenty-two percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 23 percent reported that conditions had worsened. Expectations for the six months ahead ticked down from 36.4 to 35.1.

                      Looking at some details, new orders dropped from 27.1 to -5.0. Shipments dropped from 27.1 to 1.0. Delivery times dropped slightly from 23.1 to 21.6. Price paid eased from 80.2 to 76.6. Prices received also dropped from 44.6 to 37.1.

                      Full release here.

                      Germany ZEW surged to 51.7, economic outlook improved considerably

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment rose sharply from 29.9 to 51.7 in January, well above expectation of 32.7. Current Situation index deteriorated from -7.4 to -10.2, missed expectation of -7.5.

                        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped from 26.8 to 49.4, well above expectation of 29.2. Current Situation index dropped -3.9 pts to -6.2.

                        ZEW President Achim Wambach said: “The economic outlook has improved considerably with the start of the new year. The majority of financial market experts assume that economic growth will pick up in the coming six months. It is likely that the phase of economic weakness from the fourth quarter of 2021 will soon be overcome.

                        “The main reason for this is the assumption that the incidence of COVID-19 cases will fall significantly by early summer. The more positive economic expectations include the consumer-related and export-oriented sectors and thus a large part of the German economy.”

                        Full release here.

                        BoJ Kuroda: We are not debating an interest rate hike

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          In the post meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “consumer inflation is likely to stay around 1% through the end of the BoJ’s projection period. As such, there is no need to modify the BoJ’s monetary easing.”

                          “We are not debating an interest rate hike … As shown in the report, we’re not yet in a situation where inflation is steadily accelerating toward the BoJ’s goal. The median forecast of board members is for inflation around 1%. Under such conditions, we are absolutely not thinking about raising rates or modifying our easy monetary policy,” he said.

                          “If achievement of 2% inflation comes into sight, the BoJ’s board will likely debate an exit strategy and communicate its intention to markets. That in itself won’t be that difficult. The problem is that unfortunately, we haven’t see inflation hit 2%. It’s premature to debate an exit strategy,” he added.

                          UK payroll rose 184k in Dec, unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% in Nov

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            UK payrolled employees rose 184k to 29.5m in December. The number was up 409k on pre-pandemic level back in February 2020. All region are now above pre-coronavirus levels.

                            For September to November period, comparing to the prior quarter, employment rate rose 0.2% to 75.5%. Unemployment rate dropped -0.4% to 4.1%. Economic inactivity rate rose 0.2% to 21.3%.

                            Average earnings including bonus rose 4.2% 3moy while average earnings excluding bonuses rose 3.8% 3moy.

                            Full release here.

                            BoJ stands pat, upgrades 2022, 2023 inflation forecasts

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              BoJ left monetary policy unchanged. Under the yield curve control, short-term policy interest rate is held unchanged at -0.1%. BoJ will also buy a “necessary amount” of JGB bonds to keep 10-year yield at around 0%.

                              BoJ maintained the pledge to continue with QQE with yield curve control, “aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner”. It will also continue expanding the monetary base “until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner.”

                              In the new economic projections, comparing to October forecasts:

                              • Fiscal 2021 real GDP growth downgraded from 3.4% to 2.8%.
                              • Fiscal 2022 real GDP growth upgraded from 2.9% to 3.8%
                              • Fiscal 2023 real GDP growth downgraded from 1.3% to 1.1%.
                              • Fiscal 2021 core CPI unchanged at 0.0%.
                              • Fiscal 2022 core CPI upgraded from 0.9% to 1.1%.
                              • Fiscal 2023 core CPI upgraded from 1.0% to 1.1%.

                              Full statement here.

                              Full Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices here.

                              Downbeat New Zealand business confidence, strong inflation pressures

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                In the The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, a net 34.4% of New Zealand businesses expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months, much worse than prior quarter’s 11.1%. Trading activity for the next three months dropped slightly from 8.7 to 8.3.

                                Regarding inflation, a net 61% reported increased costs in Q4, highest since 2008. A net 65% expect further increase in prices in the next quarter. NZIER said, “these results point to inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy remaining strong over the coming year.”

                                Full release here.

                                Canada manufacturing sales rose 2.6% mom in Nov, supply chains impacts continued

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Canada manufacturing sales rose 2.6% mom to CAD 63.1B in November, above expectation of 1.7% mom. Sales increased in 18 of 21 industries, led by the primary metal, petroleum and coal product, non-metallic mineral, and food product industries.

                                  Statistics Canada said, “despite the gains observed for November, supply chain issues continued to impact manufacturing production in many industries including transportation, chemical, and food. Moreover, floods in British Columbia further exacerbated the situation.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  China’s rate cut failed to lift HSI

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    China’s rate cuts were not enough to lift investor sentiment in the region. PBoC lowered its one-year medium-term lending facility rate by 10bps to 2.85%. The seven-day reverse repurchase rate was also cut by 10bps to 2.1%. They’re the first rate cut since April 2020.

                                    Also, the PBoC injected more liquidity by offering 700 billion yuan of MLF loans, exceeding the 500 billion yuan maturing, and added 100 billion yuan with seven-day reverse repurchase agreements, more than the 10 billion yuan due.

                                    Hong Kong HSI closed down -165 pts or -0.68% at 24218.03. Downside momentum has been diminishing since mid December. Yet there is no clear sign of bullish reversal. HSI is still inside medium term falling channel. Another fall remains in favor to extend the down trend from 31183.35 through 22665.25 low.

                                    Bitcoin staying in sideway consolidation, still defending 40k

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      Bitcoin is now staying in consolidation above 39636 short term bottom, after quickly defending 40k handle. Considering that it’s sitting just above 39559 structural support too, the consolidation could extend for a while. But outlook will stay bearish for another fall to 61.8% projection of 68986 to 41908 from 52101 at 35366 before completing the decline from 68986 high.

                                      The timing of the downside breakout will depend on the eventual reaction to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 43211) which it’s struggling with. A strong break above 4 hour 55 EMA will stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 48230) first, and rejected there to bring down trend resumption. Meanwhile, rejection by the current level could bring downside breakout rather quickly through 396363 to the mentioned 35366 target.

                                      China GDP grew 4.0% yoy in Q4, weak retail sales

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        China GDP grew 4.0% yoy in Q4, much faster than expectation of 3.3% yoy. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.6% qoq, above expectation of 1.1% qoq. For 2021 as a whole, GDP grew 8.1%, slightly above expectation of 8.1%.

                                        In December, industrial production rose 4.3% yoy, above expectation of 3.6%. Retail sales rose 1.7% yoy, below expectation of 3.7% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 4.9% ytd yoy, slightly above expectation of 4.8%.

                                        The National Bureau of Statistics said, “we must be aware that the external environment is more complicated and uncertain, and the domestic economy is under the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations.”

                                        Also from China, steel production dropped for the first time in six years in 2021, down -3% from 1.065B tonnes to 1.03B tonnes. Birth rate dropped to a record low of 7.52 births per 1000 people in 2021, down from 2020’s 8.52 births per 1000 people.

                                        US retail sales dropped -1.9% mom in Dec, ex-auto sales down -2.3% mom

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          US retail sales dropped -1.9% mom to USD 626.8B in December, much worse than expectation of 0.0%. Ex-auto sales dropped -2.3% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-gasoline sales dropped -2.0% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales dropped -2.5% mom.

                                          Total sales for the 12 months of 2021 were up 19.3% from 2020. Total sales for the October 2021 through December 2021 period were up 17.1% from the same period a year ago.

                                          Full release here.

                                          Load more

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.