Flash PMI Gives More Evidence that Japan has Entered Recession, Unlikely to be Rescued by Stimulus
A week before the final data, the flash PMI report for Japan gives a glimpse of how the coronavirus outbreak has hurt the country’s manufacturing and services activities. The composite output index slumped to 35.8, compared with 47 in February. Sector-wise, the services index dived to 32.7 in March...
Sentiments Take a U-Turn as Fed Goes QE Unlimited
Market sentiments take a u-turn today after Fed surprised the markets with another emergency announce. Now, the targets for asset purchases are removed and Fed is going into QE unlimited. US futures turned from limit down to positive while major European indices pared back much of earlier losses. The...
Risk Aversion Continues, RBNZ Cut, NZ & AU Lockdown, US to See Surge in Unemployment
Markets are back in risk averse mode as another week starts, after Spain and Italy suffered the worst days of coronavirus pandemic over the weekend. US Senate failed to advance another aid package on differences between Republican and Democrats. But resolution would be seen soon based on the severity...
RBNZ Announced QE to Tame Tightening Market Conditions
RBNZ announced QE on Monday, following an aggressive emergency rate cut, by -75 bps, to 0.25% last week. The surprising move aims at soothing the credit conditions which have tightened significantly over the past weeks. Besides QE, the central bank last week introduced a Term Auction Facility, FX swap...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Major Currencies Reduced as Global Central Banks Rushed to Cut Rates
Bets on major currency futures were trimmed on last week, as major central banks announced emergency measures to contain risks of global recession. US dollar soared last week despite Fed's two rate cuts in 2 weeks, bringing the Fed funds rate -150 bps lower. Besides announcing to expand QE...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on Commodities amidst Rising Global Uncertainty
Bets on oil and precious metals futures fell across the board. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 17, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +52 840 contracts to 440 237 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -14 748 contracts while...
Dollar in Strong Rally as Coronavirus Pandemic Worsened, Key Resistance Levels Broken
The anticipated market stabilization didn't happen last week. Instead, despite massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, stocks around the world still ended sharply lower. Nevertheless, as stocks are showing sign of loss of downside momentum. Treasury yield has somewhat stabilized in range. We'd see that the rock bottom in investor...
Markets Staying in Consolidation as Dollar and Yen Turn Mildly Softer
The financial markets are generally staying in consolidative mode today. Global stocks managed to reverse some of this week's loss. in the currency markets, Dollar pares back some of recent gains while commodity currencies recover. Though, these moves are generally seen as profit-taking and position adjust ahead of the...
Markets Digesting Wild Moves, Stabilizing ahead of Weekend
Asian markets are rather quiet finally as the weekend is coming. Currencies are digesting this week's sharp moves for now, with mild recovery seen in commodity currencies and Sterling. Dollar and Yen turn slightly softer. But for the week, the greenback remains strongest, followed by Yen and Swiss Franc....
ECB’s Stimulus Lifted Peripheral Bonds, But Not Stocks Nor Euro
ECB's massive coronavirus pandemic program do have notably impact on peripheral bond markets. In particulars, Italian and Spanish bond yields dropped sharply today, with Italy 10-year yield back below 1.9% currently, Spanish 10-year yield below 0.9%. The boost to other markets is not that apparent though, as European stocks...
No Support from ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase, Nor RBA’s Rate Cut and Bond Buying
Once again, it seems that emergency fiscal and monetary measures by global governments and central banks couldn't be cared less by investors. US Congress' second stimulus package, ECB's massive EUR 750B pandemic emergency purchase program, RBA's rate cut and government bond buying, are all shrugged off. Optimism won't come...
RBA Announced Emergency Rate Cut, Initiated QE
RBA announced an emergency rate cut of -25 bps, sending the cash rate to 0.25%, today. The central bank also announced a QE-style yield curve control plan. It attempts to target the yield for 3-year government bond at 0.25% through bond purchases. The move is not too surprising, following...
Crude Oil Inventory Gained for Another Week as Recession Fear Trimmed Demand
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slumped -7.68 mmb to 1263.33 mmb in the week ended March 13. Crude oil inventory gained +1.95 mmb (consensus: +3.26 mmb) to 453.74 mmb. Stockpile rose in 3 out...
Stimulus Effects Fade, Oil Tanks, Italian Yield Spikes Up
Neither fiscal nor monetary stimulus is able to provide sustainable support to market so far. Stock markets are back under pressure today despite the massive USD 1T stimulus proposal by the US. Additionally, sentiments are pressured by the sudden spike in Italian treasury yields, and break of a key...
US Fiscal Response to Coronavirus Just Gave Brief Lift to Sentiments
Investor sentiments were given only and mild and brief boost by the massive fiscal stimulus of the US. Asian markets quickly reversed initial gains and pessimism over coronavirus pandemic wild likely continue in European markets too. As for currencies, Canadian dollar is currently the weakest one for today, as...
Dollar Surges as Focus Turns from Stock to Currency Markets
Focus somewhat turns from stock markets to currencies today. Major global indices are staying in rather tight range today, based on recent volatility. Fiscal and monetary measures from major central banks and governments are providing little support to sentiments, as coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen. Dollar jumps broadly today,...
Asia Steady after Another Worst Day Since Black Monday
Markets are generally steady so far today. The panic selloff overnight in the US wasn't carried through to Asia. DOW had another worst day since Black Monday, getting practically no support from Fed's all-in easing. In the currency markets, major pairs and crosses are staying inside yesterday's range for...
Monetary Policy is No Cure to Coronavirus Crash as Selloff in Europe Extends
Fed's all-in easing, together with RBNZ and BoJ stimulus, provide no apparent support to market sentiment. Number of coronavirus cases continued to skyrocket, breaking 170,000 level today. More importantly, deaths totals hit 6,680. Selloff intensifies in European session with FTSE, DAX and CAC breaking through Friday's spike low. US...
Stocks in Panic after Fed, RBNZ and BoJ Emergency Actions, No End to Risk Aversion Yet
It's a bit unsure whether emergency policy actions by major central banks are calming the markets, or inducing fears. Fed, RBNZ and BoJ surprise the markets by unscheduled announcements today, with measures to counter the impact of coronavirus pandemic. Fed cut interest rate by -1.00% to 0-0.25%, with restart...
China’s February Data Slumped, Showing First Sign of Coronavirus Impacts
China’s economic data for February dived, showing for the first time impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on the world’s second largest economy. Originating in China, the coronavirus has now evolved into global pandemic, affecting about 100 countries and territories. The impacts on global economy are not limited to supply chain...