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• Bitcoin really stood dominant in the past 6 months while Ethereum was lagging against other cryptocurrencies such as Solana and XRP.
• Is Ether going to play catch-up? An in-depth technical analysis is due for the second biggest crypto.
• ETH Revisits levels last seen in February 2025 around the $2600 mark.

An Overview on the Cryptocurrencies Market

Top 6 Cryptocurrencies by their Market Cap. Source -- coinmarketcap.com

Ethereum still stands as the second biggest cryptocurrency even after lagging on the rally that took Bitcoin and Solana to their own all-time highs.

There are concerns surrounding the cryptocurrency that pioneered smart contracts, as it faces higher transaction costs and slower processing speeds compared to its closest competitor, Solana (SOL).

It is important to note though that the development of ETFs for the Cryptocurrency tends to boost its performance, as we have seen with the past year introduction of BTC ETFs.
Besides, Bitcoin hitting fresh all-time highs in today's overnight session tends to provide a boost to the overall crypto market.

ETH performance vs BTC and SOL, Jan 2024 to today. Source - TradingView.

Ethereum in-depth Technical Analysis

ETH Weekly Levels

Ethereum Weekly Chart, 2021 to May 22, 2025. Source - TradingView

The weekly charts point to a decent comeback from the crypto with strong bullish candles the past 4 weeks.

We are currently in a support zone on the weekly timeframe, though prices will have to consolidate here to avoid it becoming a bearish pivot zone.

Resistance and Support Zones to look for on the weekly:

• S1: 2,385 - 2,525
• S2: 2,035 - 2,167
• S3: 1,700 - 1,825

Note that prices will already have to break last week highs of $2,739

• R1: 2,850 - 2,992
• R2: 3,225 - 3,363
• R3: 3,660 - 3,800
• December 2024 highs: $4,095

ETH Daily Levels

Ethereum Daily Chart, November 2024 to May 22, 2025. Source - TradingView

Daily support and resistance zones for the ETH are similar to the ones found on the weekly timeframe.

ETH has to break above the 14th of May 2025 Highs at $2,739 for a further bullish breakout - though the trend is still bullish as long as we maintain above S1.

ETH Closer View - 4H Chart

Ethereum 4H Chart, May 2025. Source - TradingView

Ethereum is consolidating at its local highs, a good sign generally as the local top at $2,739 did not form clear lower highs. Prices are now looking to retest the last week highs.

Fibonacci Levels on this 4h charts are key to spot potential support and resistance zones for entry and/or position closes.

Observe how levels on this tool coincide with Support and Resistance zones from bigger timeframes.

r1 and r2 on the chart indicate potential resistance zones to expect on a breakout.

• r1: 2,926 - 3,000
• r2: 3,086 - 3,150

Safe trades!

The single currency is losing ground against the dollar, pulling back to 1.13 on weak PMIs. This helps the 1.12-1.15 area cement its title as a multi-year pivot area. However, today’s momentum may prove to be just a short game within a longer-term uptrend towards 1.20-1.25.

On the daily timeframes, EURUSD pushed away from the 50-day moving average in March, starting a rapid rise and later breaking above the 200-day. From late April to mid-May, the overheated market corrected within a classic Fibonacci pattern, and EURUSD regained support at the 50-day touch.

The recovery of the uptrend reinforces our belief that we have seen a corrective pullback and not a reversal. This is also evidenced by the fact that EURUSD quickly returned above 1.12, which served as a reversal point from upside to downside for the previous two years. Now it is working as support.

Only overcoming the previous peaks at 1.1570 will confirm the uptrend. However, a bullish signal is already forming on the weekly timeframes—a golden cross, as the 50-week moving average is preparing to exceed the 200-week moving average.

A consolidation above the broad 1.05-1.12 corridor is likely to be followed by an entry to a new floor with support at 1.12 and resistance in the 1.25 area, where the market reversed down in 2018 and 2021, but from 2008 to 2014 the ‘ceiling’ of this range was support for the pair.

That is, the EURUSD’s corrective pullback since late April could be just a tactical consolidation of forces before a further breakout with a long-term target at 1.25.

NZDJPY: ⬇️ Sell

• NZDJPY reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 84.00

NZDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the resistance level 87.30 (which has been reversing the price from February, as can be seen below), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from November.

The downward reversal from the resistance zone stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (A).

Given the overriding daily downtrend, NZDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 84.00 (low of the previous minor correction B).

Bitcoin: ⬆️ Buy

• Bitcoin broke key resistance level 108055.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 115000.00

Bitcoin cryptocurrency pair recently broke above the key resistance level 108,055.00 (former monthly high from December and January, as can be seen below).

The breakout of the resistance level 108055.00 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of April.

Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 115,000.00 (which is the target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 5).

Markets

The flash EMU May PMI’s disappointed. After hovering just north of the 50 level that separates growth from contraction in the first four months of the year, it unexpectedly dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. As the HCOB chief economist indicated: US tariffs are not to blame. It is domestic oriented services dropping from 50.1 to 48.9. Manufacturing production (51.5) rose for the third month in a row. Germany (composite 48.6 from 50.1) joined France in contraction territory (48). S&P indicates that the rest of the euro area continues to register growth, but the pace slows. S&P sees the May reading as in line with 0.1% Q/Q EMU Q2 growth, compared to 0.3% in Q1. Orders for services still declined further. New orders in manufacturing stabilized. Despite the pause in the implementation of tariffs, business confidence also declined further after the drop in April. Services confidence dropped to lowest level since September 2022. Inflation indicators mostly slowed, but the picture wasn’t unequivocal. Services input prices still rose sharply, but the rise selling prices eased. Manufacturing input costs declined as did selling prices. With higher services inflation mainly due to high wage growth, this remains mixed input for the ECB. Even so, markets see current mix as justifying the ECB to proceed with a next ‘pre-emptive’ 25 bps rate cut in June (95% discounted). Short-term Germany yields stay lower in a daily perspective (2-y -4.5 bps), but long term yields turned back north with the 30-y again adding 2.5 bps. Investors in LT bonds globally are still keeping a close eye at the developments in the US. In this respect, the US House (narrowly) approved President Trump’s tax Bill, which will now go to the Senate. Even as amendments are likely, the outcome will sharply further raise US deficits and the path of government debt. LT US yields again jumped higher after the approval. The 30-y touched 5.15%, but the pressure gradually eased somewhat. US yields currently are changing between -4.0 bps (2-y) and +2.0 bps (30-y). Fed Waller kept the door open Fed rate cuts in H2 if the tariffs on US trading partners would settle around 10%. A higher level could complicate the Fed assessment. At the time of finishing this report, the US PMI’s surprise sharply to the upside (composite 52.3 from 50.2), helping to put an intraday bottom yields.

Yesterday evening, US fiscal uncertainty and a poor US 20-y auction already triggered a correction in US equities. This spilled over to Asia an Europa. EMU PMI’s didn’t help European markets negative guidance from the US. The EuroStoxx 50 currently cedes about 1.0%. US futures reversed initial further losses after the approval of the tax bill. The S&P opens little changed. On FX markets, the dollar shows a mixed picture. The US currency eased further against the likes of the yen, but gradually found a bottom, supported by the US PMI’s (USD/JPY 143.8). Poor EMU PMI’s pushed EUR/USD back below 1.13, but the damage stays modest for now. Sterling slightly outperforms the euro (EUR/GBP 0.8420). UK PMI’s were not impressive, but better than EMU. (composite 49.4, from 48.5, services back at 50.2). Even so, the UK 30-y yield adding another 6 bps (5.55-60 area 6%) remains another warning sign.

News & Views

The Turkish central bank (CBRT) kept its EoY inflation forecasts unchanged for 2025 and 2026 in its second (out of four in total) inflation reports this year. The respective 24% and 12% projections are on the optimistic side given that actual CPI was 38% in April with the disinflationary process showing signs of stalling in recent months. CBRT governor Karahan cited easing commodity prices and domestic activity to keep forecasts stable. Annual average oil prices were lowered by 14% and 18% for 2025 and 2026 respectively compared to the Q1 inflation report while growth was revised down. But he did warn for upside risks. The arrest of president Erdogan’s political rival in March wreaked havoc on Turkish markets, including on the local currency. While Karahan expects the inflationary impact of to be temporary, they remain on the lookout for pass-through effects. Either way, by keeping the inflation forecasts well above the 5% target and coupled with Karahan’s pledge to do “whatever is needed” to tame price pressures, the central bank signals any future rate cuts would only be gradually. The CBRT started easing late last year but changed course after the March shocker. The de facto policy rate currently stands at 49%.

The oil price rally yesterday following CNN reports of Israel preparing an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities was very short-lived. It reversed course already during the day and extends losses today. The latter followed a Bloomberg report suggesting OPEC+ is readying another jumbo (+411k barrels) output hike in July. That would be the third such move in a row and another strong deviation from the much more gradual return of output OPEC had agreed on initially. Brent oil drops to $63.75.

US economy saw a notable rebound in private sector activity in May, with both PMI Manufacturing and Services rising to 52.3, lifting the Composite reading to a solid 52.1.

According to S&P Global, this improvement marks a turnaround from April’s slump and is largely attributed to improved sentiment following the temporary suspension of higher tariffs.

Chief Economist Chris Williamson highlighted that the rebound appears partly driven by companies and their customers attempting to "front-run" orders ahead of potential new tariff shocks after the current 90-day truce expires in July.

This preemptive behavior has led to the largest accumulation of input inventories" in the survey’s 18-year history, alongside a surge in "supply chain delays", now the worst since the pandemic-era disruptions of 2022.

Most concerning for policymakers is the sharp rise in prices. The report flagged that the overall increase in prices charged for goods and services was the steepest since August 2022, signaling "consumer price inflation moving sharply higher."

Full US PMI flash release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1286; (P) 1.1324; (R1) 1.1369; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat. But further rise is expected as long as 1.1216 support holds. Correction from 1.1572 could have completed at 1.1064 already. Above 1.1362 will bring retest of 1.1572 first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, break of 1.1217 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1064 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0818) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3371; (P) 1.3420; (R1) 1.3469; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat. Further rally is expected as long as 1.333 support holds. Above 1.3468 will extend larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2706 to 1.3442 from 1.3138 at 1.3593, and then 100% projection at 1.1.3874. However, break of 1.3333 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3138 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 1.3433 (2024 high) will confirm resumption. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3124) will delay the bullish case and bring more consolidations first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.09; (P) 143.86; (R1) 144.43; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 148.64 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Rebound from 139.87 could have completed as a correction to 148.64 already. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest this support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 146.08 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.