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AUD/USD declined below the 0.6320 and 0.6300 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.5700.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6320 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6300 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.5760 resistance zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5715 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6330 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6300 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

The pair even settled below 0.6280 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6270. A low was formed at 0.6269 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6295 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6312 swing high to the 0.6269 low.

There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6300. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6312 swing high to the 0.6269 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.6310 zone, above which the price could rise toward 0.6320.

Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.6330 resistance. A close above the 0.6330 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6380.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6270 zone. The next support sits at 0.6260. If there is a downside break below 0.6260, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6200. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6165 support.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.5760 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.5725 against the US Dollar.

The pair settled below the 0.5720 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 0.5695 zone and is currently consolidating losses.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5736 swing high to the 0.5693 low at 0.5715. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5715.

The next resistance is the 0.5725 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.5736 swing high to the 0.5693 low. If there is a move above 0.5725, the pair could rise toward 0.5750.

Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 0.5800 resistance zone in the coming days. On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near the 0.5705 level.

The next major support is near the 0.5695 zone. If there is a downside break below 0.5695, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.5665 level. The next key support is near 0.5640.

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Gold surged through round-figure barrier at $3100 and hit new record high on Monday, with growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty continuing to strongly boost safe haven demand.

US import tariffs which are due to start on Apr 2 and anticipated damage on global economy from escalation of trade war, as well as fragile geopolitical situation are expected to continue to fuel migration into safety.

The yellow metal’s price remains in a steep uptrend from $2000 zone and is on track for the biggest monthly gain in 14 years in March and also for the biggest quarterly advance in nearly four decades (over 18%).

Next targets lay at $3156, $3173 (Fibo projections) and $3200 (psychological).

Overbought daily studies suggest that bulls may take a breather with dips likely to be shallow on strong bullish sentiment.

Broken $3100 level reverted to initial support, followed by former top ($3057) and rising 10DMA (3045) guarding lower breakpoint at $3000.

Res: 3127; 3156; 3173; 3200.
Sup: 3010; 3057; 3045; 3017.

Market Picture

Crypto market capitalisation has fallen 1.3% in the last 24 hours and around 6.5% over the weekend, pulling back towards the lows of three weeks ago. The sell-off intensified after a failed attempt to climb above the 200-day average. It may turn out that the market’s recovery from 11 to 26 March was a rebound after a decline. A $2.56 trillion plunge below the March 11 lows could confirm this bearish scenario.

Bitcoin has pulled back below $82,000, having lost over 6% since Friday, when a sell-off in stock markets dampened enthusiastic sentiment. On Monday, the pressure in the markets remains, forcing us to consider BTC’s return below $80000 as the main scenario for the near term. Deepening below would open the way to $68000-72000, triggering a broader institutional sell-off.

XRP is moving down despite reports of Ripple and SEC proceedings ending. The coin’s price has pulled back to $2.05, testing the support area near where the reversal has been taking place since early December. A failure of this support is very likely due to the negative sentiment in the larger markets. But in this case, there is a risk of the start of a large capitulation, capable of taking up to 70% of the current price.

News Background

According to SoSoValue data, net inflows into spot bitcoin-ETFs almost quadrupled last week to $196.5 million to cumulative inflows since the approval of bitcoin-ETFs to $36.24bn. Net outflows from the ETH-ETF amounted to $8.6 million, decreasing the total inflow since this ETF’s launch to $2.41 billion.

CryptoQuant believes crypto funds are ‘at a critical turning point.’ Institutions are shaking up their portfolios and de-risking due to macroeconomic uncertainty, which is having a major impact on Bitcoin.

The US SEC has dropped lawsuits against cryptocurrency companies Kraken, ConsenSys and Cumberland. The cases have been dismissed due to ‘bias,’ making it impossible to re-file them.

Tron founder Justin Sun appeared on the cover of Forbes, becoming the second Chinese person after Jack Ma to be featured on the magazine’s cover. The news was met with wariness in the community, as in the past, the appearance of crypto industry representatives in Forbes was accompanied by a market decline.

Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta warned that the battle against inflation "cannot yet be said to be over." and urged caution in the timing of interest rate cuts.

In a speech today, Panetta pointed to the heightened uncertainty stemming from “contradictory” announcements on US trade policy, suggesting that such unpredictability complicates the ECB’s path forward. As a result, the central bank must continue to monitor "all the factors that could hinder the return to the 2% target"

Panetta emphasized the balancing act the ECB now faces. On one hand, subdued consumption and investment, driven by geopolitical tensions and weak Eurozone growth, are helping to ease inflationary pressures.

But on the other hand, the resurgence of uncertainty—particularly around US tariffs—means the ECB must remain vigilant and not rush into policy loosening.

ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for Europe to assert more control over its economic future in light of looming US tariffs, set to begin on April 2.

In a France Inter radio interview, Lagarde reframed the narrative around “Liberation Day,” saying that while the US sees it as a move toward sovereignty, Europe must seize it as an inflection point—“a march toward independence.”

Lagarde reiterated her previous estimates that tariffs from the US could shave around 0.3% off Eurozone growth in the first year. Should Europe retaliate with reciprocal measures, the negative impact could deepen to as much as 0.5%.

On inflation, Lagarde noted that keeping it in check remains a “constant battle.” She stressed that while some progress has been made, inflation needs to fall in a sustainable way. That, she said, requires a carefully calibrated interest rate policy.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.17; (P) 194.47; (R1) 195.20; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 195.95 will extend the rally from 187.04 once again, to 198.94 resistance. However, firm break of 192.00 support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall. Overall, corrective pattern from 180.00 is still extending.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.85; (P) 162.52; (R1) 162.96; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 160.73 support holds. Above 164.16 will resume the rally from 154.77 to 164.89 resistance, and then 166.67. However, break of 160.73 will turn bias back to the downside for 158.87 support and below. Overall, sideway consolidation pattern from 154.40 is still extending.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8333; (P) 0.8351; (R1) 0.8387; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 08314 will bring deeper fall back to 0.8239 support. However, firm break of 0.8373 minor resistance will argue that fall from 0.8448 is merely a correction and has completed. Retest of 0.8448 should be seen next.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is still bounded inside medium term falling channel. While rebound from 0.8221 might extend higher, it could still develop into a corrective pattern. Overall outlook will be neutral at best and down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) could extend, at least until decisive break of channel resistance (now at 0.8495).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7146; (P) 1.7189; (R1) 1.7273; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD Remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.7270 resistance will argue that the correction has completed at 1.7047, and bring retest of 1.7417. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 1.6335. In case of another fall, downside is still expected to be contained by 1.6990 support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, the breach of 1.7180 key resistance (2024 high) suggests that up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming. Sustained trading above 1.7180 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.7682, which is also close to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.7691. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.6800 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9511; (P) 0.9531; (R1) 0.9558; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. Strong support is still expected from 0.9486 to complete the correction from 0.9660. On the upside, above 0.9581 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.9660 high. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 0.9204. However, sustained break of 0.9489 will dampen this view, and bring deeper fall back to 0.9331 support next.

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.9491) is a medium term bullish sign. Sustained break trading above long-term falling channel resistance (at around 0.9610) would suggest that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has bottomed at 0.9204. Stronger rally should then be seen to 0.9928 key resistance at least.