Sample Category Title

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel suggested in an FT interview that the central bank is approaching a point where it “may have to pause or halt” rate cuts.

While she refrained from making a firm prediction for upcoming policy meetings, she acknowledged that the ECB needs to “start that discussion”.

Schnabel highlighted that the degree of monetary restriction "has come down significantly", to the extent that policymakers can “no longer say with confidence” that ECB’s stance remains restrictive.

She defended the ECB’s gradual and cautious approach, arguing that domestic inflation remains high, wage growth is still elevated, and energy price shocks continue to impact inflation expectations.

Full interview of ECB's Schnabel here.

The New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5721 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day.

RBNZ chops rates by 50 bps as expected

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed the cash rate by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 3.75%. The markets had priced in the cut at 90% so there was no surprise at the jumbo cut. This lowered the cash rate to its lowest level since Nov. 2o22. The RBNZ demonstrated again that it can be aggressive, as it has cut rates by 175 basis points since the easing cycle started last August.

The New Zealand dollar is stronger on Wednesday, which is somewhat surprising, given the jumbo rate cut and the RBNZ’s signal that further rate cuts are on the way in the coming months.

The rate statement noted that the members were confident lowering rates as CPI remained near the midpoint of the 1%-3% target band. At the same time, members expressed concern that economic activity in New Zealand and abroad were “subdued” which posed a risk to economic growth.

The statement also made a brief mention of “trade restrictions” which could dampen economic growth. No mention was made of US President Trump’s tariff threats but policymakers are clearly concerned that US tariffs, even if not aimed directly at New Zealand, could chill the global economy and hurt the country’s key export sector.

In a follow-up press conference, Governor Adrian Orr said that the Bank expected to lower the cash rate to 3% by the end of the year. This forecast was lower than the November projection of 3.2% by year’s end. The central bank is expected to deliver smaller rate cuts of 25-bps in the coming months.

NZD/USD Technical

• NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.5713. Above, there is resistance at 0.5731
• 0.5686 and 0.5668 and the next support levels

• USD/JPY stuck within 151.50-152.20 area.
• Technical signals suggest bearish risks are alive.

USD/JPY has been treading water in a tight range this week, holding between the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 152.20 and the 151.50 support level after a sharp drop from the 154.30 resistance zone. The outlook remains fragile, with technical indicators signaling further downside risks.

At the moment, there’s little to get excited about from a technical perspective. The price has dipped below the Ichimoku cloud, and the 20- and 50-day EMAs are locked in a bearish crossover, endorsing the negative trajectory in the market. Additionally, the RSI remains clearly below its 50 neutral mark, while the stochastic oscillator is edging into oversold territory - both indicating that selling pressures could persist in the near term.

If the 151.50 level gives way – aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September-January rally - the pair could quickly test the next line of defense around 150.50. Should that also fail to hold, the 149.00-149.50 area, where the pair staged a strong rebound in December, could become the next battleground. A break below this zone would open the door to a steeper drop towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 148.00.

On the flip side, a successful break above the 200-day EMA could re-challenge the resistance area of 153.30-154.30. This area is packed with obstacles, including the 20- and 50-day EMAs, the Ichimoku cloud’s lower band, the 23.6% Fibonacci level, and a downward-sloping trendline from January’s peak. Hence, a decisive close above this zone could reignite buying interest, propelling the pair to the next barrier near 156.40. Any further upside would face a tougher battle around the broken support trendline near 157.40.

In summary, USDJPY continues to have a bearish lean in the short term. If resistance around 152.20 holds firm, a resumption of the downtrend is likely. A move below 145.00 would signal a deeper, more sustained bearish reversal in the medium-term outlook.

Market Picture

The crypto market lost ground late in the day on Tuesday, falling to $3.08 trillion, but managed to recoup the losses and get back to $3.15, where we saw it 24 hours ago. The market has traded mostly in the $3.10-3.30 range for the past two weeks. This sluggish trading pattern has had a negative impact on trading volumes and can be frustrating for cryptocurrency speculators in general.

The Crypto Market Sentiment Index has fallen from 47 to 44 (Fear), its lowest level in the past 10 days. This is an indirect sign that even the market’s relative stability is dampening sentiment. Most worryingly, at current sentiment and capitalization levels, the markets have yet to attract sell-off hunters and counter-trend traders.

Bitcoin plunged towards 93,000 on Tuesday night but quickly returned to familiar levels above 95,000. Notably, it is off its highs and even below its 50-day moving average, while U.S. stock indices have already returned to renew their rallies.

Litecoin is up about 10% in 24 hours, crossing the $135 level and returning to the area of active resistance since December. The dynamics in early February showed that this altcoin is still interesting to buy on dips, which increases its chances of storming the recent highs. Its upside potential is quite extensive: at the highs in 2017 and 2021, this old altcoin was above $350.

News Background

Bitcoin’s dominance has risen to 60% from 55% in early December, driven by institutional investors and low confidence in the rest of the cryptocurrencies.

Standard Chartered expects more sovereign wealth funds to start investing in Bitcoin. The Abu Dhabi sovereign fund’s investment in BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF is one of the first signals of the new trend. The bank’s forecast for BTC is still the same—$500,000 by 2028.

According to Santiment, the amount of available Ethereum supply on centralized crypto exchanges has fallen to a historic low of 6.38%, which usually shows that investors prefer a hold strategy and avoid a large-scale sell-off soon.

Jeffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, says government interest in cryptocurrency is becoming more visible. He says the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund’s investment in BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF is one of the first signals of the new trend.

Binance CEO Richard Teng reported a “new scam” aimed at stealing users’ cryptocurrency. Attackers send fake wallet compromise notifications. The message suggests “securing” funds by transferring them to another wallet they control.

Former customers of the bankrupt FTX platform with assets of up to $50,000 have begun receiving their first payouts on the Kraken exchange and through the BitGo service at November 2022 rates. Many market participants may reinvest the funds received, affecting market liquidity and prices.

The XNG/USD chart today shows that natural gas prices have surpassed the December 2024 peak, breaking through the key psychological level of $4.000/MMBtu. Since early February, prices have surged by over 20%.

Why Is Natural Gas Price Rising?

According to The Wall Street Journal, the bullish sentiment is driven by:

→ Weather models confirming forecasts of a significant cold spell.

→ LNG exports remaining at record highs.

Additionally, US gas exports may increase further after President Trump lifted the pause imposed by the Biden administration on new LNG export projects. Bloomberg reports that Trump’s administration is close to approving its first LNG export project.

Technical Analysis of XNG/USD

The price movements are forming an upward channel (marked in blue) on the chart:

→ Prices are currently near the upper boundary of this channel.

→ The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone.

→ The price briefly exceeded the $4.000/MMBtu psychological level.

→ Buyers may look to secure profits after the recent sharp gains.

Given these factors, traders may anticipate a potential pullback, which—if it occurs—could bring natural gas prices back towards the channel’s median level.

Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads. Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta acknowledged that economic weakness in the Eurozone is proving “more persistent than we expected”, as the long-anticipated consumption-driven recovery has yet to materialize.

After two consecutive quarters of stagnation, he noted that "tensions in the manufacturing sector, employment is giving signs of weakening"

Panetta also highlighted the downside risks to inflation stemming from weak growth. However, he also noted that upside inflation risks remain, primarily from energy costs.

• The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, driven by a late-session rally in chipmakers, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed mixed movements.
• President Trump has proposed new tariffs, potentially targeting the Pharmaceuticals and Automobiles sectors with a 25% tariff rate.
• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and S&P PMI data releases are upcoming and expected to provide further insights into the Fed’s monetary policy stance.

The three major Wall Street indices fluctuated throughout the US session, shifting between gains and losses. A rise in chipmakers propelled the S&P 500 to fresh all-time highs late in the session despite a drop in technology stocks.

The S&P 500 edged up by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 also posted a 0.2% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed mixed movements throughout the session. Meanwhile, the chipmakers index surged by 1.7%.

SPX 500 Top Movers 

Source: TradingView

Intel’s stock climbed on rumors about a possible company breakup. Super Micro Computer saw a big jump thanks to a positive outlook. Walgreens Boots Alliance rose after CNBC reported that Sycamore Partners might still be planning a takeover. Meanwhile, Meta’s 20-day streak of gains came to an end.

More Tariffs Ahead?

Yesterday we heard more from President Trump on proposed tariffs that may be announced. President Trump said we should see some announcements in the coming week while once again lamenting that the EU has been an unfair trading partner.

The President touched on specific sectors with Pharmaceuticals and Automobiles both expected to get hit with tariffs of around 25%. Tuesday’s comments are his most detailed yet in specifying other sectors that would be hit with fresh barriers.

It will be interesting to see what effect such announcements may have on stock prices moving forward following what has been quite an impressive earning season for US companies.

FOMC Minute and PMI Data Ahead

It is fair to say that following last week’s uptick in US inflation and drop off in retail sales numbers, market participants are once more focused on the Fed’s next moves. The FOMC minutes will be released later today, these should provide further insights into how the Fed sees tariffs impacting their monetary policy course and objectives moving forward.

The week will wrap up with S&P PMI data which will give us another glimpse into the performance of the US economy from both a manufacturing and service perspective.

Technical Analysis

S&P 500

From a technical standpoint, the S&P has printed a fresh all-time high and could be due a pullback soon.

There was a triangle breakout which occurred as far back as September 19, with a target price of around 6170 which is now just 40 points away.

If we reach this level i do think we could be in for a short-term correction, however, i expect such a move to be met with buying pressure if the current status quo remains the same.

It is hard t find key levels as we continue to trade at fresh highs with no historical price action to serve as a guide.

However, immediate focus for me will be 6170 and 6200 on the upside.

If price pushes lower from here, support may be found at 6100, 6080 (20-day MA).

S&P 500 Daily Chart, February 19, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) 

Support

• 6100
• 6080
• 6050

Resistance

• 6170
• 6200
• 6250

EUR/USD started a decent upward move above the 1.0460 resistance. USD/JPY declined below 153.00 and is currently consolidating losses.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro found support and started a recovery wave above the 1.0400 resistance zone.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0460 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 153.00 and 152.50 levels.
• There is a short-term rising channel forming with support near 151.60 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0290 zone. The Euro climbed above the 1.0400 resistance zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled above the 1.0450 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.0515 resistance. A high is formed near 1.0514 and the pair is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0292 swing low to the 1.0514 high.

Immediate support is near the 1.0445 level. The next major support is at 1.0400 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0292 swing low to the 1.0514 high.

If there is a downside break below 1.0400, the pair could drop toward the 1.0375 support. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0290, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.0460. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0460. The next major resistance is near the 1.0515 level. An upside break above 1.0515 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0550.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 154.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below the 153.00 support against the Japanese Yen.

The pair even settled below the 152.50 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 151.50 and the pair traded as low as 151.23. It is now correcting losses and trading above the 50-hour simple moving average.

Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 154.80 swing high to the 151.23 low at 152.05.

The first major resistance is near the 153.00 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 154.80 swing high to the 151.23 low. If there is a close above the 153.00 level and the hourly RSI moves above 60, the pair could rise toward 153.95.

The next major resistance is near 154.80, above which the pair could test 155.50 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is near 151.60. There is also a short-term rising channel forming with support near 151.60.

The next major support is near the 151.20 level. If there is a close below 151.20, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 150.00 support.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets

The first high-level in-person talks between the US and Russia since the 2022 invasion in Riyadh went well according to the parties involved but offered nothing concrete. The talks were merely explanatory. The fact they happened without Ukraine and the EU sparked outcry from both and prompted a handful of EU leaders into a crisis meeting on Monday to discuss upgrading the European defense capacity. Polish PM Tusk said that (funding) measures would be presented in time for an upcoming March 20-21 summit. We wouldn’t be surprised if something came up sooner given the sense of urgency, provided German coalition building goes smoothly after this Sunday’s elections. French president Macron has called a second meeting for today, involving several EU and non-EU states. Negotiations center around having a UN-mandated “peace-keeping operation” in Ukraine to uphold any future ceasefire/peace deal. The war theme stays at the center of attention but markets are wary to frontrun on any outcome for the time being. Monday’s slide by European bonds in anticipation of significantly increased defense spending eased yesterday. German rates gapped higher at the open but pared gains afterwards to close virtually unchanged. UST’s caught up during their first trading day of the week by adding between 4.7-7.5 bps across the curve yesterday. The US dollar held the upper hand. EUR/USD fell to 1.0446, DXY bounced back to 107. Sterling appreciated on an across-the-board beat by the labour market report. EUR/GBP lost 0.83 and withstood overall USD strength (GBP/USD 1.261). Next up in the UK: CPI. Headline inflation only dropped 0.1% m/m, pushing up the yearly figure to a quicker-than-expected 3%. Core CPI jumped to 3.7% from 3.2% and services inflation to 5% from 4.4%. Bank of England governor Bailey flagged the inflation spike in a speech yesterday and warned not to read too much into it. It explains this morning’s muted GBP reaction. UK money market pricing barely changed and sticks to just two rate cuts for all of 2025.

Aside from the running war theme, Trump’s tariff policy comes back to front as well. The FX ex. USD market isn’t impressed by a renewed (car, pharma & chip) import tariff threat by Trump late-yesterday though. The president said an announcement could come April 2, offering time to hammer out a deal. The greenback trades on the backfoot against all G10 peers. The eco calendar further contains the January Fed meeting minutes. The slew of policymakers since that gathering that came to cement the long pause suggests a broad consensus and means the minutes probably have little surprising or new to offer. We assume technically inspired FX and FI trading.

News & Views

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today reduced the policy rate further by 50 bps to 3.75%. The move was largely expected. CPI inflation remains near the midpoint of its 1-3% target band (0.5% Q/Q and 2.2% Y/Y in Q4). Firms’ inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target midpoint. The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term. Economic activity remains subdued and spare productive capacity and domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage setting is adapting to a low-inflation environment. The RBNZ expects economic activity and employment growth to recover this year, but there is a high degree of uncertainty, amongst others due to trade. The RBNZ governor indicated that the RBNZ might ease policy a bit faster than indicated earlier, with follow-up rate cuts (25 bps) in April and May. The Monetary policy report sees the policy rate on average near 3.1% in Q4. The NZ 3-y bond yield initially dropped after the decision but current trades little changed near 3.85%. The kiwi dollar made a similar move, reversing an earlier decline after governor Orr’s press conference, currently even trading slightly higher at NZD/USD 0.573.

BoJ Board member Takata in a speech today advocated that the bank should continue to consider gradual further rate hikes to contain upside inflation risks. With long-term inflation expectations rising and companies more actively passing on costs, conditions for further policy normalization are falling into place. Maintaining expectations for interest rates to stay low for a prolonged period of time might overheat the economy and financial activity. He indicated that it is difficult to estimate a neutral policy rate and finds it problematic for the Bank to announce a certain level of the neutral policy rate. It could be seen as pre-committing and would reduce the bank’s policy flexibility. At 1.435%, the 10-y Japanese government bond yield this morning touched the highest level since 2009.

UK headline CPI accelerated to 3.0% yoy in January, up from 2.5% yoy and exceeding market expectations of 2.8% yoy. This marks the highest inflation level since March 2024, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain persistent.

Core inflation also surged, with CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco rising to 3.7% yoy, up from 3.2% yoy in December.

Meanwhile, CPI goods inflation edged higher from 0.7% yoy to 1.0% yoy, while CPI services inflation climbed from 4.4% yoy to 5.0% yoy.

Full UK CPI release here.