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USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8332 extended higher last week, but lost momentum after hitting 55 D EMA (now at 0.8687). It's also pressing 38.2% retracement of 0.9243 to 0.8332 at 0.8680. Focus stays on this 0.8680 resistance zone. Decisive break there will turn near term outlook bullish for 61.8% retracement 0.8995. Nevertheless, break of 0.8565 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8332 low.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.8332 could be strong, there is no clear sign of medium term bottoming yet. This rebound is tentatively seen as a corrective move for now. Also, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high) should resume through 0.8332 low at a later stage.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best.

AUD/USD's fall from 0.6870 resumed and accelerated to as low as 0.6524 last week, then recovered. Initial bias remains neutral at this week for consolidations. But further decline is expected as long as 0.6639 support turned resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6524 support will argue that whole rebound from 0.6269 has completed, and bring deeper fall to this support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It's unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

USD/CAD rebounded further to 1.3540 last week, but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations first. Current development suggests that fall from 1.3897 has already completed. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3342 minor support holds. Above 1.3540 will target 1.3617 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3897 to 1.3176 at 1.3622). Decisive break there will pave the way to 1.3897/3976 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

GBP/JPY's rise from 178.32 continued last week and breach of 188.63 argues that larger up trend is resuming. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 188.63 will confirm this case and target 38.2% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 191.04. On the downside, below 1187.01 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 184.15 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) in in progress. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 178.32 support holds. Next target is 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high).

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) in still in progress despite loss of upside momentum as seen in W MACD. Further rise will remain in favor, as long as 172.11 support holds, to retest 195.86 (2015 high).

EUR/JPY's rise from 153.15 extended higher last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 161.8% projection of 153.15 to 158.55 from 155.06 at 163.79, which is close to 164.29 high. On the downside, below 160.03 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally is expected as long as 158.55 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 only. As long as 148.48 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is expected to resume through 164.29 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 170.07 which is close to 169.96 (2008 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 148.48 resistance turned support holds.

EUR/GBP's decline from 0.8713 extended to 0.8554 last week but recovered ahead of 0.8548 support. Initial bias remains neutral and some consolidations could be seen first. Deeper fall is expected as long as 0.8619 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8548 will indicate that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.8491 low. However, break of 0.8619 will dampen this view and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8764 is seen as another leg in the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8713 resistance holds. Break of 0.8491 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8491 from 0.8764 at 0.8464.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Fall from 0.9267 is the third leg of the pattern from 0.9499. Break of 0.8201 (2022 low) will target 100% projection of 0.9499 to 0.8201 from 0.9267 at 0.7969.

EUR/AUD's rises further to as high as 1.6671 last week before retreating. The development suggests that corrective fall from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127 already. Further rise is expected as long as 1.6398 support holds. Above 1.6671 will target 1.6844 resistance to confirm this bullish case.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5858) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

EUR/CHF's rebound from 0.9252 short term bottom extended higher last week. The break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9449) argues that it's correcting whole down trend from 1.0095. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9574. On the downside, below 0.9404 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds. Current fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Another decline is in favor after rebound from 0.9252 completes. However, firm break of 0.9683, and sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9666) will argue that EUR/CHF is already in a medium term rally, even as a corrective move.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it's staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0265). Larger down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in progress.

Monday, Jan 22, 2024

Tuesday, Jan 23, 2024

Wednesday, Jan 24, 2024

Thursday, Jan 25, 2024

Friday, Jan 26, 2024

U.S. Highlights

• Higher than expected retail sales in December suggests that consumer spending remained resilient to end the year.
• Several Fed governors sought to push back against market expectations for swift and significant rate cuts.
• The housing market ended 2023 on a sour note, with both new home construction and existing home sales falling in December.

Canadian Highlights

• Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut odds took a hit this week as stronger than expected data caused a selloff in bond markets.
• Inflation data got a lot of attention, as the BoC’s core measures moved higher in December - not the kind of move the BoC was looking for.
• Housing data also surprised higher. With sales rebounding, the average home price rose for the first time since last spring.

U.S. – A Resilient Consumer Dims Hopes for an Early Rate Cut

Just when you think the U.S. consumer might yield to mounting pressures currently buffeting their balance sheets, they surprise by closing out 2023 on a retail spending binge. The increased spending kept the economy on firm ground and suggests a solid hand off heading into the new year. It also caused investors to pare back expectations for a March rate cut and pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher.

Retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in December, following a 0.3% gain in November (Chart 1). The breadth of the increase was also noteworthy with 9 out of the 13 categories recording gains. The “control group” which factors into the calculation of personal consumption expenditure rose an even more impressive 0.8% on the month. The stellar number suggests that consumer spending grew at a healthy clip of around 2.5% (annualized) in Q4.

The stronger than expected retail sales report has resulted in upward revisions to expectations of Q4 GDP growth. After the report, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow growth estimate rose to 2.4% (from 2.2%), while our own estimate currently sits at 1.9%. (Chart 2). We won’t have to wait long to know for sure though, as the BEA is set to release the advance estimate of Q4 GDP next Thursday. Given expectations for the print to be relatively strong, there is even less pressure on the Fed to entertain rate cuts over the coming months.

The slew of Fed speakers making the rounds this week were quick to reinforce that point. “With economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually” Governor Waller sees “no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past.” He used terms such as “carefully calibrated and not rushed” and “lowered methodically and carefully” to push back against market expectations of sizeable cuts this year. Atlanta Fed President Bostic was on a similar page. He noted that rates could be cut earlier than Q3, “but the evidence would need to be convincing.” What’s more, he urged caution given the current uncertain environment (domestic budget battles, global conflict, elections etc.), which could have unpredictable economic impacts and re-ignite inflation pressures.

Turning to the housing sector, reports out this week showed housing activity ended a tumultuous year on a sour note. Housing starts fell in December reversing a portion of November’s gain, while existing home sales declined to a 14-year low. A dearth of available inventory and historically poor affordability are to blame for last year’s weak showing. However, with mortgage rates having come down by over 100 basis points from its mid-October peak, we’ve likely reached the bottom and should see some uptick in sales activity through 2024.

Ultimately, the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on the strength of economic growth and inflationary pressures. This week’s data indicate that economic conditions are currently resilient. Last week’s CPI print shows there is still work to be done on the inflation front. The combination means that a policy pivot to rate cuts is unlikely to be top of mind for Fed officials just yet.

Canada – The Inflation Thorn Remains in the Side of the BoC

Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut odds took a hit this week. Strong inflation readings alongside a surprising improvement in housing activity pushed BoC rate cut expectations from March to April. This forced a bond market selloff, as both the Canadian 2-year and 10-year yields shot-up more than 30 basis points ahead of next week's BoC decision.

The December release of Canadian CPI got a lot of attention. Expectations were for annual inflation to move higher on base year effects (the impact of lower prices in December 2022). While this happened as expected, what took everyone by surprise was the shift higher in core inflation rates. The average of the BoC's core measures moved up a tenth, to 3.7% year-on-year (y/y). While this doesn't seem like much, the timelier three-month annualized rate rose from 2.9% to 3.6% (Chart 1). That was not the kind of move the BoC was looking for.

Housing data also surprised higher. Maybe it was the warmer December weather, maybe the hope that the BoC was gearing up to cut rates. Either way, home sales jumped nearly 9% month-on-month. This boost alongside a sizable drop in listings pushed market balance above its long-term average and closer to buyers' territory (Chart 2). This caused the average house price to rise for the first time since the BoC re-started rate hikes in June 2023.

Canadians have also been actively filling shopping malls. Retail sales data for November pointed to more consumers buying clothing, shoes, and jewelry - all the stuff that was in demand during the holiday shopping season. And while overall sales were held down by less spending at food retailers, it looks like December spending will more than offset any of that weakness.

This week's flow of data seems to be moving counter to the recent trend. Over the last 9 months, we had seen consumers pulling back as high mortgage rates reduced spending power. At the same time, the number of net-new job gains has come to a standstill. No surprise that the BoC's newly released surveys of consumer and business sentiment continued to weaken. Importantly, nearly 70% of consumers said they have already cut spending in the face of higher rates. Businesses echoed this sentiment, with many having reported that they are seeing outright sales declines for their products. This caused 'economic uncertainty' to become the top concern for firms in 2024.

Where does this leave the BoC for its meeting next week? Given the upturn in data, there is little impetus for the BoC to flip the script. It will maintain its cautiousness, focusing on how the job isn't done yet. That said, it can also hang its hat on how forward-looking indicators are pointing to greater weakness in the months ahead. Importantly, markets believe that this weakness will soon come through in the data. This belief has maintained expectations that the BoC will begin cutting rates by the spring, something that the Bank may try to lean against next week.