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UK PMI Services was finalized at 48.8 in October, down from September's 50.0. PMI Composite was finalized at 48.2, down from prior month's 49.1. Both readings were the lowest levels since January 2021.

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

"UK service providers reported the steepest drop in business activity for 21 months in October as household spending cutbacks and shrinking business investment combined to dent new order volumes...

"Stubbornly high inflation, increased borrowing costs and worries about the UK economic outlook all contributed to weaker business optimism in October... Aside from the slump at the start of the pandemic, the degree of confidence across the service economy is now the lowest since December 2008."

Full release here.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank cannot just mirror Fed's policy moves.

"We have to be attentive to potential spillovers," said. "We are not alike and we cannot progress either at the same pace (or) under the same diagnosis of our economies."

"But we are also influenced by the consequences particularly through the financial markets, and to a lesser extent, through trade as well, because clearly the exchange rate matters and has to be taken into account in our inflation projections," Lagarde said.

ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said in a speech, "at present, the direction of monetary policy is clear". And, a "further policy adjustment is warranted in order to keep inflation expectations anchored and stave off second-round effects."

However, "the calibration of our stance should not rely on a one-sided view of risks − especially as we continue normalising our monetary policy in a highly uncertain economic environment," he added. "And it should remain focused on medium-term inflationary developments."

"Our policy stance must remain evidence-based and adapt to changes in the medium-term inflation outlook, avoiding an excessive focus on short-run developments and fully taking into account the risks emanating from the domestic and global economic and financial environment," he emphasized.

"This approach will allow us to successfully navigate the risks we face while avoiding the danger of tripping over unintended effects."

Full speech here.

ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said, "it's clear that interest rates will need to rise much higher to bring inflation down to the target of 2% over medium term."

"There's no need to pause at the turn of the year. The rate increases must continue into the next year -- until inflation, especially core inflation, shows a visible slowdown," he said.

"In my view, recession in the euro area is a baseline scenario, but so far it's likely to be relatively shallow and brief," Kazaks said. "And hence insufficient to break the backbone of inflation persistence."

Swiss CPI rose 0.1% mom in October, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) was flat at 0.0% mom. Domestic products prices dropped -0.1% mom. Imported products prices rose 0.4% mom. Goods prices rose 0.4% mom while services produces dropped -0.2% mom.

Annually, CPI slowed from 3.3% yoy to 3.0% yoy, below expectation of 3.2% yoy. Core CPI slowed form 2.0% yoy to 1.8% yoy. Domestic products prices slowed from 1.8% yoy to 1.7% yoy. Imported product prices slowed from 7.8% yoy to 6.9% yoy. Goods inflation slowed from 5.9% yoy to 5.7% yoy. Services inflation slowed form 1.2% yoy to 0.9% yoy.

Full release here.

According to the current chart, it can be assumed that the GBPJPY pair forms a global corrective trend taking the form of a double zigzag. On the 1H timeframe, the final part of this trend is visible - the actionary wave y of the cycle degree.

It seems that the wave y takes the form of a triple zigzag of the primary degree, which may soon be fully completed. After the end of the second intervening wave, which took the form of a triple combination, the price began to move up.

Most likely, the wave takes the form of a triple zigzag, in which four parts look finished. In the next coming trading weeks, growth is expected within the final intermediate wave (Z).

The completion of the entire wave is possible near 184.74. At that level, wave will be equal to wave.

In the second variant, the market builds not a double, but a triple zigzag of the cycle degree w-x-y- x-z. And now its fourth part is being formed, that is, the intervening wave x. This wave, judging by its structure, may take the form of a triple zigzag.

It is assumed that the first four parts of the primary correction pattern are fully completed. That is, the sub-waves.

Perhaps in the near future, the market will fall in the last wave to 148.14. At that level, wave x will be at 50% along the Fibonacci lines of actionary wave y.

An approximate scheme of possible future movement is shown on the chart.

Equities turned south after the Fed sees a pause in tightening as premature. The FTSE reversed its course at a former support (7200) on the daily chart. The recent rally could use some breathing room after it broke above the daily resistance at 7100. After the RSI swung back into oversold territory, 7080 is the first level to gauge the strength of follow-up interests. The psychological level of 7000 would be an important support to keep the bulls interested. 7200 is a fresh peak and a bullish breakout would carry the index to 7330.

Gold softened after the US dollar regained strength post-FOMC. After the price gave up all the gains from its rally in early October, the latest rebound met stiff selling pressure near the support-turned-resistance 1670. A long bearish wick suggests a rejection of this level. As wrong-footed traders scramble for the exit, 1618 is key in keeping the precious metal afloat. Its break would signal a bearish continuation in the days to come. 1645 is a fresh obstacle where the bears could be looking to double down on the prevailing pessimism.

The US dollar recovered after the Fed cautioned that rates could go higher than expectations. The rally has come to a halt in May 2020’s consolidation area. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling has weighed on short-term sentiment. A tentative break below the daily support 1.3500 has put the bulls under pressure. A bearish breakout would force them to bail out and trigger a deeper correction below 1.3300. 1.3750 is the first resistance and the bulls will need to clear 1.3850 before the uptrend could resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.75; (P) 169.05; (R1) 169.78; More...

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation below 172.11. Downside of retreat should be contained above 164.95 support to bring another rally. Break of 172.11 will resume larger up trend and target 100% projection of 148.93 to 165.69 from 159.71 at 176.47 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), as part of the trend from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress. Further rise would be seen to 161.8% projection of 122.75 to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.