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The New Zealand dollar declined as much as 0.67% earlier but has recovered. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5969, up 0.04% on the day.

RBNZ's Hawkesby sees weaker growth, lower inflation

A day after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates, Governor Christian Hawkesby testified before a parliamentary committee on Thursday. Hawkesby said the central bank could hold rates in July and that rate decisions would be data-dependent. The Governor said he expected slower global growth would dampen New Zealand's recovery and there was uncertainty around the impact of the US tariffs.

The RBNZ has been aggressive, chopping 225 basis points in the current easing cycle, which has brought the cash rate down to 3.25%, its lowest level in almost three years. At yesterday's meeting, the RBNZ said that the cash rate was currently in a neutral zone, where it neither stimulates nor curbs economic growth.

FOMC minutes: Increasing uncertainly could mean "difficult tradeoffs"

In the FOMC minutes of the May 7 meeting, members expressed concern about the government's fiscal and trade policy. Members said that "uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further", making it appropriate to remain cautious until these policies became clearer. Members warned that if inflation remained high and growth and employment weakened, the Fed might have to make "difficult tradeoffs".

There was another twist to the Trump tariffs saga, as the US Court of International Trade declared the tariffs illegal. The Court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing wide-sweeping tariffs against US trading partners. The decision puts a hold on the tariffs, but that may not last long as the US Justice Department has filed an appeal.

NZD/USD Technical

• NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.5954 and 0.5937. Below, there is support at 0.5914
• There is resistance at 0.5977 and 0.5994

NZDUSD 4-Hour Chart, May 29, 2025

Market Picture

Market capitalisation has changed little over the last day, hovering around the $3.42 trillion mark. Cryptocurrencies prefer not to notice positive stock market movements as they are related to tariffs and company reports, not money supply. In addition, the dollar’s exchange rate is rising for the third day.

The day before, Bitcoin retreated from the trading range’s upper boundary at 110k to its lower boundary at 107k. This rest at previous highs effectively removes the local overheating of the market. As the institutional presence in Bitcoin expands, its dynamics are becoming more similar to the behaviour of stock and commodity market instruments, with less pronounced FOMO periods.

Ethereum was briefly above $2780 on Thursday morning, hitting new highs from February and the 200-day moving average. A consolidation above $2700 has the potential to attract the attention of broader traders, kick-starting momentum to $3300 or even $4000.

News Background

The positive trend in US spot bitcoin-ETFs has continued for 9 consecutive trading sessions and 24 trading days out of the last 27.

Strategy additionally bought an additional 4,020 BTC ($427.1 million) last week at an average price of $106,237 per coin. The company now owns 580,250 BTC with an average price of $69,979 and is in profit by almost $22 billion at current prices. Strategy continues to buy BTC, but the pace of acquisitions has slowed from its November peak.

According to mining company Marathon Digital Holdings (mara), the U.S. government can increase the bitcoin reserve if it finds a way to do so without new taxes and increased government debt. The US government can replenish the bitcoin reserve in many ways, including mining the first cryptocurrency.

The futures and options markets point to growing interest from large investors in Ethereum over Bitcoin. Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole said this signals a possible shift in focus in the crypto market.

The euro/dollar pair continues to decline on Thursday, edging closer to 1.1256 as the US dollar strengthens for a third straight session. This development follows a US federal court ruling that former President Donald Trump overstepped his authority by imposing retaliatory tariffs.

Key factors driving EUR/USD movement

The US Court of International Trade ruled that the tariffs were unlawful not only for the five companies that brought the lawsuit but also for all parties. The court ordered the immediate and permanent revocation of these tariffs, although the Trump administration is expected to appeal the decision.

Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring debates in the US Senate over Trump’s expansive tax and budget bill, which is likely to face substantial amendments in the upper chamber.

Yesterday’s release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed a cautious, wait-and-see stance among officials. Policymakers are evaluating the economic repercussions of recent government measures and the ongoing tariff dispute, with noted concerns over rising inflation and unemployment risks.

Thursday’s market focus will shift to key economic data, including the second estimate of US Q1 GDP and the weekly US jobless claims report.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

• The pair formed a consolidation range around 1.1313 before breaking downward to 1.1210
• A technical retracement to 1.1313 (testing from below) is anticipated today
• If the price breaks downward from this range, the downtrend could extend towards 1.1080
• Conversely, an upward breakout may signal a corrective move towards 1.1485
• The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

• The market completed a downward wave to 1.1313, followed by consolidation and a further drop to 1.1210 in a double-wave extension structure
• Today, a potential upside wave to 1.1260 is in play, with a possible continuation towards 1.1313
• The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under pressure amid dollar strength and political uncertainty, with technical indicators suggesting further downside potential unless a corrective rebound materialises.

• WTI crude oil futures repeatedly bounce off 60.13.
• Momentum oscillators suggest bullish move.

WTI crude oil futures are rebounding off the 60.13-60.50 support region, which encapsulates the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave from 79.40 to 54.70 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). In the short-term view, the commodity has still been developing within a consolidation area of 54.70-64.17 since the beginning of April.

The price is currently fighting with the 50-day SMA around 63.00, with the potential to reach the upper boundary of the range and even higher near the critical 65.00 resistance. More upside pressures could lead investors to the 50.0% Fibonacci at 67.00, which holds near the medium-term falling trend line. Above these restrictions, the 200-day SMA at 68.70 and the 61.8% Fibonacci at 70.00 may prove to be tough obstacles for oil.

On the other hand, a downside move below the 60.13-60.50 area would take the price toward the four-year low of 54.70, ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 6.60 to 130.50 at 54.00. Below that, the next support would come far lower at 43.80.

The technical oscillators confirm the recent upswing in the market with the RSI pointing upwards, crossing above the 50 level, while the stochastic is heading north.

To sum up, WTI crude oil futures are making another bullish attempt to reclaim and break out of the trading range to the upside, but they need additional momentum.

The USD/JPY and EUR/USD currency pairs are showing moderate corrections. Market participants are locking in profits and shifting to a wait-and-see approach after the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, in which the regulator reaffirmed its commitment to the current interest rate levels amid uncertainty about the macroeconomic outlook.

In the coming trading sessions, market attention will focus on a batch of statistics from the US, Japan, and the Eurozone. Today, weekly US jobless claims data and the second estimate of Q1 US GDP growth rate are expected. Tomorrow, the focus will shift to Japanese inflation data (CPI), unemployment rate, and industrial production, which could significantly impact the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is trading near the 145.80 level, correcting in response to changes in Japanese government bond yields. The yield on 30-year bonds has dropped to 2.85% from last week’s high of 3.2%, while the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 1.46%. According to sources close to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, a survey among primary dealers indicates structurally low demand for long-term bonds — this could signal a future reduction in their issuance. Amid declining yields, the yen's strengthening has slowed, and interest in the dollar has stabilised.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY indicates a potential upward movement towards the 146.30–147.00 range, as a "piercing line" candlestick pattern has formed on the daily chart. A drop below 144.00–143.80 could invalidate the bullish scenario.

Key events that could influence the USD/JPY rate:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP Growth Rate
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
• Tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+3): Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is holding around the 1.1250 level, consolidating near local highs. The euro is showing resilience, but further movement will depend on the release of key macroeconomic data from both the US and the Eurozone.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests a possible retest of the critical support zone at 1.1200–1.1140, as a "bearish engulfing" pattern has appeared on the daily chart. A sustained move above 1.1420 could signal a potential resumption of the uptrend.

Key news that could determine the direction of EUR/USD:

• Today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Consumer Confidence Index in Italy
• Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT+3): Eurozone M3 Money Supply
• Tomorrow at 15:00 (GMT+3): German Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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According to media reports, the US Court of International Trade has:

• declared the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump illegal;
• ruled that the President exceeded his authority;
• blocked the tariffs, emphasising that under the US Constitution, only Congress has the power to impose tariffs.

The decision was made unanimously by a panel of three judges. Financial markets reacted with:

• a rise in US stock indices;
• strengthening of the US dollar — most notably seen today on the USD/CHF chart, as demand for so-called safe-haven assets declined in light of the tariff reversal.

Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF Chart

The bullish momentum has broken upward through:

• a local downward trendline (shown in red);
• resistance at the 0.8300 level, near the May 22 high.

Additionally:

• the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart has moved upwards to the overbought territory;
• the area highlighted with a purple rectangle resembles a bullish Fair Value Gap.

Could this upward momentum lead to a sustained uptrend? There is reason for doubt.

Consider the steep decline in USD/CHF in early April (driven mainly by the introduction of Trump's tariffs) and the relatively small size of today's bullish candle compared to that prior drop.

Price action seems to suggest that market participants are skeptical about any lasting change in the situation. The Trump administration has already filed an appeal, and it’s possible the White House could succeed in defending its position.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.55; (P) 194.97; (R1) 195.56; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 196.38 resistance will resume whole rally from 184.35 and target 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 196.38 from 191.86 at 199.29 next. On the downside, below 194.35 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 191.86 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.13; (P) 163.52; (R1) 163.96; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 165.19 resistance. Firm break there will resume while rise from 154.77 to 166.67 resistance. On the downside, below 163.05 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8375; (P) 0.8389; (R1) 0.8396; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside, and fall from 0.8737 is in progress for 0.8314 support. Break there will bring retest of 0.8239 low. On the upside, above 0.8400 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8458 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. However, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7531; (P) 1.7584; (R1) 1.7624; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.7628 resistance will suggest that fall from 1.8554 as completed as a correction, and retain larger bullishness. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for stronger rebound. However, below 1.7245 will resume the fall to 61.8% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8554 at 1.6953.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) should still be in progress. Break of 1.8554 will target 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. However, sustained break of 1.7062 will confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5963 support.