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EUR/USD dived further to 1.1064 last week but recovered ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Strong support is still expected from 1.1039 to complete the correction from 1.1572. On the upside, above 1.1292 will bring stronger rise back to retest 1.1572. However, sustained break of 1.1039 will dampen this view and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0709 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0818) holds.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1300) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019.

USD/JPY jumped to 148.64 last week but retreated deeply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Fall from 158.86 might have completed at 139.87 already. Further rise is in favor as long as 144.02 support holds. Above 148.64 will target 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.60 next. However, firm break of 144.02 will bring retest of 139.87 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 137.17) and even below.

GBP/USD dipped further to 1.3138 last week but recovered quickly again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3433/42 key resistance zone will confirm larger up trend resumption. Nevertheless, below 1.3138 will resume the correction from 1.3442. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3442 at 1.2929 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 are seen as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2099 could either be resuming the up trend, or the second leg of a consolidation pattern. Overall, GBP/USD should target 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high) on decisive break of 1.3433 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/CHF jumped to 0.8475 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 0.8323 support will argue that corrective rebound from 0.8038 has completed at 0.8475, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.8184, and then retest of 0.8038 low. However, sustained trading above 0.8482 will dampen this bearish view and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8756 next.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8765) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the down trend. But in either case, sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD stayed in range trading below 0.6511 short term top last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is in favor as long as 0.6356 support holds. One the upside, break of 0.6511 will resume the rise from 0.5913 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, firm break of 0.6356 will bring deeper pullback to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6511 at 0.6283 first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6441) holds, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) should resume later to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. However, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that a medium term bottom was already formed, and set up further rebound to 0.6941 resistance instead.

In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6764) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal.

USD/CAD rose to 1.4014 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week, and further rise is expected as long as 1.3898 support holds. Above 1.4014 will resume the rebound from 1.3749 short term bottom to 1.4150 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3749 at 1.4147). However, firm break of 1.3898 will bring retest of 1.3749 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4150 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3493) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.

GBP/JPY surged to 196.38 last week but failed to sustain above 195.95 resistance and retreated. Nevertheless, downside is contained well above 190.22 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week, and further rise is in favor. On the upside, firm break of 195.95 will suggest that whole choppy decline from 199.79 has completed, and target this resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 175.85).

EUR/JPY edged higher to 165.19 last week but retreated since then. Nevertheless, downside is contained above 161.57 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further rally is in favor. Break of 165.19 will resume the rise from 154.77 to 166.67 resistance. However, firm break of 161.57 will indicate near term reversal, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 149.91).

EUR/GBP's decline from 0.8737 continued last week despite interim recovery. As noted before, rise from 0.8221 should have completed as a correction to 0.8737. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 0.8221/8239 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8439 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. However, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD fell further to 1.7245 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.7628 resistance will suggest that fall from 1.8554 as completed as a correction, and retain larger bullishness. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for stronger rebound. However, below 1.7245 will resume the fall to 61.8% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8554 at 1.6953.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) should still be in progress. Break of 1.8554 will target 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. However, sustained break of 1.7062 will confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5963 support.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6240) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, firm break of the above mention 1.8744 projection level with strong momentum will argue that it's indeed resuming the up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low).