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Canada's economy unexpectedly shrank by -0.2% mom in February, missing expectations of flat growth, as a broad-based downturn weighed on output.

Goods-producing sectors led the decline with a -0.6% mom drop, particularly from mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, as well as construction.

Sservices sector also edged lower by -0.1% mom, dragged down by transportation, warehousing, and real estate

12 out of 20 industrial sectors posting declines.

Looking ahead, preliminary data suggests a modest rebound of 0.1% mom in March, led by gains in mining, retail trade, and transportation.

Full Canada's GDP release here.

The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the Q1, with GDP shrinking at an annualized rate of -0.3%, marking the first decline since Q2 2022 and falling well short of expectations for modest 0.4% growth.

The surprise contraction was driven by a surge in imports and a pullback in government spending, which more than offset gains in investment, consumer spending, and exports.

Compounding the disappointing headline figure, inflation pressures showed renewed strength. The GDP price index jumped to 3.7% yoy, significantly above the 3.1% yoy forecast and accelerating from 2.3% yoy in Q4.

Full US GDP release here.

US ADP private sector employment rose by just 62k in April, sharply missing expectations of a 130k increase and marking a notable slowdown in hiring.

Gains were split between goods-producing industries, which added 26k jobs, and service-providing sectors, which contributed 34k. By establishment size, medium-sized firms led with 40k new jobs, while small and large businesses added 11k and 12k, respectively.

Pay trends were mixed. Job-stayers saw wage growth slow slightly to 4.5% yoy. Job-changers experienced an uptick in pay increases from 6.7% yoy to 6.9% yoy.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson described the tone as one of "unease," as employers balance strong economic signals against growing uncertainty tied to fiscal policy and consumer sentiment.

Full US ADP release here.

The Australian dollar has been showing strong movement this week but is calm on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6391, up 0.14% on the day.

Australian core CPI falls to 2.9%

Australia released the CPI report for the first quarter. The Australian dollar didn't show much reaction, but the data could point to another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Headline CPI remained unchanged at 2.4% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.3%. The significant news was that RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, the key core inflation indicator, dropped to 2.9% y/y from a revised 3.3% gain in Q4 2024. This is the first time in three years that core CPI is back within the RBA's target band of between 1-3%.

The drop in core inflation is good news for the government, with the national election on Saturday. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers jumped on the news, stating that the market expects four or five rate additional rate cuts this year, which would save households with mortgages "hundreds of dollars".

The Reserve Bank is expected to lower rates at its next meeting on May 20, which would mark only the second rate cut this year. After cutting rates in February, the central bank has stayed on the sidelines as US President Trump's tariffs have escalated trade tensions and sent the financial markets on a roller-coaster ride.

US employment, GDP expected to decelerate

In the US, the markets are bracing for some weak data later today. ADP employment is expected to slip to 108 thousand, compared to 155 thousand in the previous release. ADP is not considered a reliable gauge for Friday's nonfarm payrolls, but a weak reading will only increase the anxiety of the nervous markets.

US first-estimate GDP for Q1 is expected to slide to just 0.4% q/q, after a 2.4% gain in Q3. If there is a surprise reading from GDP, we could see a strong reaction from the US dollar after the release.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6403. Above, there is resistance at 0.6431
• 0.6357 and 0.6329 are the next support levels

AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, April 30, 2025

Gold price holds in red for the second consecutive day and probes again through key $3300/$3292 zone (psychological / Fibo 38.2% of $2956/$3500 rally), where several recent attacks failed.

The risk sentiment has weakened again on growing signs of de-escalation of US – China trade conflict (although still looking for confirmation that two sides are on the firm way to reach a final deal and ease tensions).

However, larger picture is unclear as many fear of strong negative impact on global economy from tariff war that continues to fuel safe haven demand, against hopes that two largest economies are on the right track to avoid disastrous scenario that would continue do deflate metal’s safe haven appeal.

Based on these theories, we can conclude that near-term action faces two strong and opposite forces, which could keep the price in extended consolidation, before establishing in fresh direction.

Triggers remain unchanged, with loss of $3300/$3292 to generate initial but strong negative signal, which will look for confirmation on extension below $3228 (50% retracement / 20DMA).

Alternatively, lift above 10DMA ($3337) to initially ease immediate downside risk, with extension above upper pivots at $3371 and $3400 (recent range tops / broken Fibo 23.6% / psychological) to indicate an end of corrective phase and formation of higher base.

Markets will look for more signals from US economic data (GDP, PCE, NFP) due this week.

Res: 3292; 3300; 3328; 3336.
Sup: 3260; 3245; 3228; 3200.

Market Picture

The crypto market remains in prolonged consolidation as it approaches the $3 trillion level, losing about 0.5% over the past day. For the past five days, the market has fluctuated in a very narrow range, with some tendency towards shallower declines. Still, it has been unable to exceed its 200-day moving average, which is now passing through $3.01 trillion. A global positive is needed for a breakout, but it would open the way to the $3.50 trillion area.

Bitcoin is hovering near $94,500, forcing the entire cryptocurrency market to watch for the next move. Such long consolidations usually accumulate strength for further movement. The next major trigger is likely to be Friday’s labour market data.

Ethereum continues to struggle with its downtrend, hovering around the $1,800 for the past seven days, right where the 50-day moving average and the resistance line of the descending channel converge.

An upward momentum would be an important positive signal, but theoretically, under these conditions, the baseline scenario is a downward reversal.

News Background

Presto Research predicts that Bitcoin will reach $210,000 by the end of this year. Growing institutional interest and rising global liquidity will be the primary drivers behind its price increase.

Bitwise believes that Bitcoin’s recent rise above $94,000 occurred with minimal participation from retail investors. The current rally has been initiated by institutional investors, financial advisors, corporations, and even governments. The list of investors buying BTC is expanding.

The growing share of bitcoins purchased at lower prices indicates that the rally is approaching a ‘historic level of euphoria,’ according to Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant.

Crypto Caesar analyst believes that breaking through the psychological level of $100,000 will pave the way for Bitcoin to new all-time highs in the range of $110,000-115,000.

Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.4% qoq in Q1, doubling market expectations of 0.2% and signaling a stronger-than-anticipated start to the year. Across the broader EU, GDP rose by 0.3% qoq.

On a year-on-year basis, seasonally adjusted GDP grew 1.2% in the Eurozone and 1.4% in the EU, matching growth rates from the previous quarter.

Ireland led the regional performance with a sharp 3.2% quarterly increase, followed by Spain and Lithuania with 0.6% growth. Hungary was the only member state to post a quarterly contraction, down -0.2%.

Full Eurozone GDP release here.

The USD/JPY pair is rising cautiously for a second consecutive day, reaching 142.48, as a string of underwhelming economic figures from Japan weighs on market sentiment.

Key factors driving USD/JPY Movement

March’s economic data revealed a larger-than-expected contraction in industrial production, while retail sales growth also fell short of forecasts. Collectively, these indicators point to potential challenges for Japan’s economy.

Market focus now shifts to the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 0.5%.

The BoJ’s commentary will likely remain cautious as policymakers assess the potential fallout from new US tariffs on Japan’s export-reliant economy.

In a recent development, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the Trump administration has extensively discussed a potential trade agreement with Japan – a sign that bilateral tensions may be easing.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USDJPY has broken below the 142.75 level and continues to decline towards 141.56. This move is considered a correction within the broader upward trend. Once this correction ends, a new bullish wave towards 144.00 may begin. A breakout above 144.00 could pave the way for a further rise towards the local target of 146.40. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below zero and sloping decisively downwards.

On the H1 chart, USDJPY is consolidating around the 142.30 level. A rise towards 142.75 is possible today, followed by a decline to 141.67, which marks a local target for the corrective move. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 and preparing to reverse towards 20.

Conclusion

The yen remains under pressure amid a lacklustre economic performance while traders await fresh cues from the BoJ. While a technical rebound appears likely after the correction, the pair’s near-term trajectory will hinge on trade developments and US tariff policy.

• USD/JPY tiptoes higher; forms encouraging candlestick pattern
• A slew of obstacles still lie ahead; bullish outlook above 147.50

USDJPY attempted a modest recovery after dipping to 141.95 early in the week. While Tuesday’s bullish move was limited, the formation of a small, inverted hammer candlestick suggests potential for upward momentum. Confirmation, however, would require a solid green candlestick to follow.

The upward trajectory in the RSI and MACD keeps hopes for a rebound alive as investors await the release of US Q1 GDP growth and core PCE data later today. On the other hand, the falling stochastics undermine the strength of any potential bullish action, while the negative slope in the exponential moving averages (EMAs) lends further support to the prevailing downtrend.

Immediate resistance lies at the 143.00 mark, followed by the 20-day EMA and the 144.23–145.35 constraining zone. A break higher could open the door to the 50-day EMA and the tentative resistance trendline near 147.50 – also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 downtrend.

On the downside, a close below 142.20 could drag the pair back toward 139.50–140.00. A deeper decline could test support at 137.70–138.50, and potentially 137.20, a break of which could clear the way to 132.85.

In summary, while USDJPY bulls remain cautiously active, a confirmed bullish outlook hinges on a decisive move above 147.50.

The EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs are showing moderate gains amid a consolidation of market expectations ahead of the release of crucial macroeconomic indicators. Tomorrow, investor focus will shift to data on inflation, consumer spending trends, and manufacturing sector activity—figures that could significantly reshape expectations for monetary policy in the world's leading economies. Heightened speculative activity ahead of these releases is contributing to increased market volatility and may trigger a retest of local highs and lows in major currency pairs.

GBP/USD

At the start of the trading week, GBP/USD buyers managed to test the 2024 highs near 1.3440. A pullback from last year’s peak has resulted in the formation of a bearish “Harami” candlestick pattern on the daily chart. If the pair fails to hold above the 1.3370–1.3340 range, a downward correction may unfold towards the 1.3200–1.3100 zone. Conversely, a break above 1.3440 could reignite bullish momentum.

The following events may influence the price dynamics of GBP/USD:

• Today at 12:00 (GMT+2): 3-year Gilt auction, United Kingdom
• Today at 15:15 (GMT+2): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, United States
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+2): US GDP data
• Today at 17:00 (GMT+2): US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index

EUR/USD

Following a sharp rally in early April, EUR/USD has entered a sideways range between 1.1500 and 1.1300. Technical analysis suggests a possible move towards the lower boundary of this range. A break below 1.1300 could trigger a deeper bearish correction toward the 1.1109–1.1120 area. On the other hand, a bounce from current levels may encourage a renewed test of the 1.1500–1.1580 zone.

Key economic data that could affect EUR/USD in upcoming sessions include:

• Today at 12:00 (GMT+2): Eurozone GDP
• Today at 13:00 (GMT+2): Italy Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Today at 14:00 (GMT+2): Spain Business Confidence Index
• Today at 15:00 (GMT+2): Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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