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Japan’s manufacturing sector remained in contractionary territory in April, with the final PMI reading at 48.7, up slightly from March’s 48.4. While the deterioration in business conditions marked the tenth consecutive month of decline, it remained modest.

However, underlying components revealed more concerning trends, with sharper drops in new orders and exports, highlighting persistent demand-side weakness.

According to S&P Global, firms responded by scaling back purchasing and adjusting inventories, while overall sentiment worsened.

Business confidence around future output fell to its lowest since mid-2020, as companies expressed caution amid ongoing global trade tensions and muted demand. Without a significant turnaround in both domestic and external demand, "firms are likely to struggle to see a recovery in conditions".

Full Japan PMI manufacturing final release here.

BoC’s summary of deliberations from its April meeting revealed a divided Governing Council, as members weighed the case for another rate cut against the need for more clarity.

While some policymakers pushed for an immediate cut, citing a weakening domestic economy and subdued near-term inflation, others argued in favor of holding steady at 2.75% to better assess the evolving trade environment, especially with US tariffs in flux.

All members acknowledged the unusually high level of uncertainty. They agreed to be “less forward-looking than usual,” signaling a preference for data-dependence over proactive policy signaling.

The Council framed the current risks in two layers: the unpredictable path of U.S. trade policy, and the unknown economic impact of tariffs—including potential fiscal responses to soften the blow.

With no clear resolution on either front, the BoC leaned toward caution, holding policy steady at 2.75% while signaling a readiness to adjust as needed.

Full BoC summary of deliberations here.

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin price started a steady increase above the $92,000 resistance.
• A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support at $92,400 on the 4-hour chart of BTC/USD.
• Ethereum price is consolidating above $1,750 and aims for a fresh increase.
• Gold is correcting gains and might decline below the $3,220 support zone.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $88,000 zone against the US Dollar. BTC was able to surpass the $90,000 and $92,000 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price settled above the $92,000 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). However, the bears seem to be active near the $95,000 and $96,000 levels.

On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $95,500 level. The next key resistance is $96,200. The main resistance could be $96,500. A successful close above $96,500 might start another steady increase.

In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise toward the $98,000 level. Any more gains might call for a test of $100,000.

Immediate support is near the $94,200 level. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $92,400 on the same chart. The next key support sits at $90,800 or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,446 swing low to the $95,861 high.

A downside break below $90,800 might send Bitcoin toward the $88,000 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $85,200 support zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,446 swing low to the $95,861 high.

Looking at Ethereum, the bulls seem to be in control and might soon aim for a move above the $1,850 resistance zone.

Today’s Economic Releases

• US ISM Manufacturing Index for April 2025 – Forecast 48.0, versus 49.0 previous.
• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 224K, versus 222K previous.

• The DXY currently trades ~1.73% higher than multi-year lows made in last week’s trading, now looks for support ahead of Friday’s NFP report
• A somewhat softened stance on tariffs, rumblings of the first successful trade deal, and a calming of Trump-Powell tensions have allowed the dollar to gain ground

USD: Uncertainty surrounding tariffs

The introduction of sweeping tariffs as part of Trump’s notorious “Liberation Day” has been undeniably negative for dollar pricing. Falling to levels unseen since early 2022, markets were quick to offload dollars in favour of other currencies with more stable policy environments.

The future, however, is somewhat uncertain. Agreeing to a temporary deferment in implementing further tariffs, markets are tentatively watching for any developments regarding potential trade deals, with the White House currently hinting that the first deal has been struck.

The $1,000,000 question remains whether Trump’s strong-arm tactics will encourage other nations to reach mutually beneficial trade agreements with the United States, with the last few weeks providing a glimpse of the alternative.

USD: Trump vs. Powell continues

Speaking today at a rally in Michigan marking 100 days in office, Trump has recently renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve, and by extension, Chair Jerome Powell.

A relationship marred by potshots from both parties, Trump has long argued that the Federal Reserve should cut rates more aggressively to stimulate economic growth, a request that has, at least so far, fallen on deaf ears, with the Federal Reserve yet to cut in 2025.

With Trump, perhaps more optimistic than most regarding the current US economy, it would seem that Powell and the Federal Reserve have different priorities for current monetary policy, voting for a more conservative and calculated cutting cycle.

Amid concerns about its autonomy from the White House, the Federal Reserve is set to meet next Wednesday to vote on monetary policy. Traders will closely watch for any commentary suggesting their likely next move.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD currently trades around 1.13268, ~2.18% lower in value than recent highs. Trading in a period of consolidation, euro-dollar will have to break and maintain above key resistance at around ~1.13954 to continue the current bull trend, with the next target being around ~1.15182.

USD/JPY technical analysis

At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades above the key level of 143.000 at around 143.050. Unless price can close above the consolidation held between ~143.284 and ~143.836, dollar-yen remains firmly in bearish territory. If price breaks down further, bears will target 142.019.

USD/CAD technical analysis

Recently trading rangebound, USD/CAD has broken previously held consolidation to the downside and now trades at around ~1.37905. The MACD on the four-hourly time frame shows a strengthening bearish trend, with an increasing divergence between MACD and the baseline. If price breaks down further, bears will likely target 1.37528.

EURCAD: ⬇️ Sell

• EURCAD reversed from resistance level 1.5880
• Likely to fall to support level 1.5495

EURCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 1.5880 (which has been reversing the price from the start of July) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from 2022.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.5880 created the weekly Shooting Star – a strong sell signal for EURCAD.

Given the overbought daily Stochastic and the strength of the resistance level 1.5880, EURCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.5495.

NZDUSD: ⬇️ Sell

• NZDUSD reversed from the resistance level 0.6020
•  Likely to fall to support level 0.5800

NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 0.6020 (former top of wave 2 from November) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from September.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6020 started the active intermediate impulse wave (3).

Given the overbought daily Stochastic, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.5800, the former resistance from March and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave 1.

GBPUSD: ⬇️ Sell

• GBPUSD reversed from the long-term resistance level 1.3430
• Likely to fall to support level 1.3200

GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the long-term resistance level 1.3430 (previous yearly high from last year) standing close to the upper daily and weekly Bollinger Bands.

The price also earlier reversed down from the resistance level 1.3430 creating the weekly Shooting Star last week.

Given the overbought weekly Stochastic and the strength of the resistance level 1.3430, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3200.

Hello traders and welcome to a new blog post where we discuss trade ideas that Elliottwave-Forecast members took recently. Members recently went long on the EURNZD currency pair and are now close to the first target. The post will discuss how we came about the setup and how we intend managing the trade.

EURNZD has maintained a bullish corrective cycle since the lows of April 2015. The structure evolving is a double zigzag pattern for wave ((IV)) of the supercycle degree of the all-time bearish cycle. Meanwhile, it should be noted that this wave ((IV)) has not yet reached the target. Often times, corrective structures reach the extreme we expect unless price dictates otherwise. So far nothing of such information from the price. Thus, we continue to look forward to a higher prices until wave ((IV)) ends at the extreme area. Meanwhile, while it’s in progress, we explained to members why they should buy pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swing setup from the blue box. Thus, Group 2 members understand how to go about the trade. Good for us, a pullback emerged from the peak of April 2025. We were patient to see the pullback emerged into a clear 3-swing structure.

EURNZD Bullish Setup – 4.15.2025 Update

On 15th April 2024, we shared the chart above with members. The expected pullback was for wave ((4)) of the cycle degree wave c from September 2024. Wave ((4)) evolved lower with a 3-swing structure. Wave (A) of ((4)) finished with an impulse structure while wave (B) finished with a zigzag. As expected, wave (C) completed another impulse structure in the blue box. Thus, wave ((4)) was making a clear A-B-C corrective structure. We identified the blue box between 1.8964-1.8477 as the extreme area. Thus, we advised the group 2 members to buy at 1.8964 and set stop at 1.8477. What happened in the following few days?

EURNZD Bullish Setup – 4.15.2025 Update

EURNZD found support in the blue box as expected. Price significantly touched the zone and triggered buyers into position. We shared the chart above with members on 25th April 2025. The chart shows price reacting higher from the blue box. The first target for this trade is at 1.933. At 1.933, members will close half of their positions in profit and adjust the rest to breakeven while expecting an impulse rally to evolve for wave ((5)). Meanwhile, the final target will be at 2.027 where traders can close the rest of their positions.

However, if the bullish response is not an impulse structure, it should be at least a 3-swing bounce before turning lower to attempt a double correction for wave ((4)) much lower. After a 3-swing bounce, price should at least hit the first target. Thus, this will allow members to hold some profit while closing down risk. If a 7-swing setup eventually happens lower for ((4)), we will like to buy again at the new extreme.

This is how we like managing this trade. We will expect an impulse rally and also prepare for a deeper ((4)). Until the wave ((IV)) cycle from April 2015 reaches the extreme, we will continue to go long from the blue box on both the H1 and H4 charts.

The dollar index remains constructive and edged higher on Wednesday after data showed that US economy slipped in the first quarter against consensus for a small rise, though it showed better results from expectations of some big US banks.

The greenback is still firmly negative overall, suggesting that larger bearish cycle is far from over and bear-trend is likely to resume after consolidation, fueled by current conflicting signals about possible solution for US-China trade conflict or its escalation.

The dollar index is on track for the third consecutive month in red, with steep downtrend from February peak, showing strong acceleration.

April’s drop presents the biggest monthly loss since November 2022, with monthly close below psychological 100 level to add to bearish signal, which still looks for verification on clear break below the floor of 2023/24 range (99.20) that would expose next significant support at 96.30 (bull-trendline off 2011 low).

Bearish daily studies suggest consolidation / limited correction should be ideally capped under solid resistances at 100.00/30 (psychological / falling 20 DMA) with extended upticks to be capped by daily Kijun-sen (100.98) to keep larger bears intact

Res: 99.72; 100.00; 100.30; 100.98
Sup: 98.63; 97.65; 96.30; 95.18