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ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel signaled that the central bank is in no rush to adjust policy, emphasizing that the current stance allows time to assess the impact of the latest energy shock. Speaking in Washington on Wednesday, she said the ECB is in a “relatively favorable” position after having brought inflation back to target before the Middle East conflict, adding that “we do not need to rush into action.”

Schnabel highlighted the complexity of the current environment. While rising energy prices could prove inflationary, the Eurozone’s status as a net energy importer means higher fuel costs may simultaneously weaken growth. That dynamic could limit firms’ ability to pass on higher costs and reduce workers’ bargaining power, creating a two-sided risk where inflation and activity move in opposite directions.

Against this backdrop, she stressed the need for caution and data dependence. Policymakers must watch closely for signs that inflation could become entrenched through second-round effects, but at the same time avoid overreacting. “We have to weigh our policy decisions very carefully,” she said, warning that the ECB must not impose an “unnecessary cost” on the economy through premature tightening.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book points to an economy that is holding up, but increasingly under strain from rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Activity expanded at a "slight to modest pace" across most districts, while others reported little change or mild contraction. The overall picture suggests resilience, but with momentum slowing as firms navigate a more uncertain environment.

A key theme was the impact of the Middle East conflict, which has become a major source of uncertainty for businesses. Companies cited difficulties in planning "hiring, pricing, and capital investment", with many adopting a "wait-and-see posture". This cautious approach reflects both the unpredictability of energy prices and the broader implications for demand and supply chains.

Cost pressures are clearly building. Energy and fuel prices rose sharply across all districts, feeding through into higher transportation costs and increased prices for petroleum-based products such as plastics and fertilizers. At the same time, broader input costs—from metals affected by tariffs to technology and insurance—continued to climb. Notably, many firms reported that "input cost increases outpaced selling price growth, compressing margins".

Labor market conditions, however, remain relatively stable. Employment was "steady to up slightly", with low turnover and limited layoffs, while wage growth continued at a "modest to moderate pace". Some firms are also turning to AI-driven productivity gains to manage costs, allowing them to "delay or reduce hiring".

Full Fed's Beige Book here.

• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently battling resistance at the psychological 75000 level
• A clean close above 75000 is required for the bullish scenario to continue the rally toward targets at 76400 and 78197
• The bearish scenario is triggered if Bitcoin fails to hold the 50 MA (H1) at 74004, potentially leading to a drop to the 71673 support level

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently locked in a tug-of-war at the psychological 75000 handle. After a volatile start to the month, the premier cryptocurrency has carved out a clear recovery path, though the technical indicators suggest the journey higher may require a brief pitstop.

Daily Chart: Structural Breakout and Moving Average Support

The daily timeframe paints a picture of a successful trend reversal. After enduring a period of downward pressure characterized by a descending channel, BTC has staged a convincing breakout.

Key technical highlights on the daily:

• The MA Cluster: Bitcoin has decisively reclaimed the 50-day MA (blue) at 69679 and the 200-day MA (black) at 87339 remains a long-term target. More importantly, it is currently testing the 100-day MA (yellow) at 74924 as immediate resistance.
• Support Base: The 70000 level has now transitioned from a daunting ceiling to a significant floor.
• RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is sitting at 60, suggesting that while the trend is bullish, Bitcoin is far from "overheated", leaving the door open for a run toward the 78197 and 82133 levels.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, April 15, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

H4 Chart: Consolidation Below the Ceiling

On the H4 chart, we can see the aggressive nature of the recent leg up. The pair surged from the 68000 zone, slicing through the 71673 level with significant volume.

However, price action has stalled over the last 24 hours just shy of the 75000 mark. We are seeing a series of "BEAR" labels on the RSI, which is currently at 57.

This cooling of momentum suggests that the market is waiting for a fresh fundamental catalyst or a period of consolidation before attempting to breach the year-to-date highs. The 50 MA (blue line) on the H4 is trending sharply upward, currently providing dynamic support at 72226.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

H1 Chart: Scenarios for the Upcoming Session

The hourly chart reveals the intraday sensitivity of Bitcoin as it trades within a narrowing range. Currently at 73918, the immediate direction will likely be determined by how price reacts to the ascending 50-day MA (blue) on this timeframe.

The Bullish Scenario

For a continuation of the rally, bulls need to defend the 73500 area. A clean hourly close above 75000 would likely trigger a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out), potentially catapulting the pair toward the next liquidity pocket at 76400 and eventually 78197.

The Bearish Scenario

The recurring "BEAR" pivot warnings on the H1 RSI cannot be ignored. If Bitcoin fails to hold the 50 MA (H1) at 74004, we could see a quick "flush" down to the 71673 support level. This would be a standard mean-reversion move to shake out late-entry long positions before a potential secondary attempt at the highs.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 75000, 76400, 78197
• Support: 73500, 71673, 70000

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Bitcoin is in a "prove it" phase. While the macro structure is firmly bullish following the daily breakout, the 75000 level is proving to be a tough nut to crack. Patience may be the best tool for traders here looking for entries on a confirmed breakout or a deeper retest of support.

• Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global Markets
• Markets are taking a break ahead of the resuming of US-Iran talks tomorrow, with mediators pushing for a ceasefire extension
• Stock Markets are on track to recover to all-time highs with euphoric Markets

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.

Markets continue their euphoric ascension with both parties reportedly eager to pursue talks.

Traders really seem to have a sixth sense for turning points in the narrative, with Stock Market buyers ruthlessly bidding prices back up to right around pre-war highs.

Cautious analysis could warn of a potential for ecstatic behavior, particularly when no peace deal has yet been properly drawn out.

Dow Jones Daily Chart. April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView

After a chaotic first round of negotiations over the weekend, anxiety rose, but that did not last long, with President Trump repeatedly reassuring that "[Iran] sent the right people and they want to make a deal." The Nuclear issue, a particular subject of contention, is now in line for the coming resumption of discussions on Thursday.

Meanwhile, with direct Israel-Lebanon talks also officially underway – the first since 1993 – peace in the Middle East seems closer by the day.

The reality could be a bit more chaotic than what Participants are pricing, but all they wanted to see was a war that doesn't escalate any further (and with fears of a ground operation just three weeks ago, this is pretty decent progress).

The latest news from the Associated Press reported that the mediators are now looking to extend the Ceasefire, set to expire next Tuesday, April 22.

Furthermore, even Energy commodity traders are now attempting to turn the page on this heavy chapter, with the escalation premium now fully erased.

As a result, only a ~$20 supply drought premium remains, which should only be erased if and when a deal is reached.

Oil Daily Chart. April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView

On the Macroeconomic side, the US reported a less hot-than-expected PPI report, which began to show a turn in demand-side inflation, with only heavy supply, energy-linked inflation hurting prospects.

After all, IEEPA tariffs got banned by the US Supreme Court, which quickly took out a few percentage points from the data – the nastier side of it is the fact that oil-led inflation can affect inflation in a 3 to 6 month span as businesses initially absorb the lower margins before passing them on to consumers (when looking at prior energy crises).

On the northern border, Canada just reported an important rebound in Manufacturing sales, up 3.6% (slightly missing the 3.8% estimate), erasing the -3% loss from January.

This continues to show how sideways North American economies have evolved in recent times, with Employment for both the US and Canada continuously wiggling and economic indicators slowing and bouncing again.

Policymakers will surely wait to see the effects of the war on consumption and inflation before moving the needle.

Kevin Warsh's hearing is now expected next week, after being delayed by Jerome Powell's court case – Trump had some words on the issue this morning (and, as per usual, they were not the sweetest).

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

North-American Indices Performance

North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Global Equities continue their sensational rebound, largely led by Japanese and US Stocks (with the US Dollar and Japanese Yen also weakening severely to add fuel to their respective Markets).

Dollar Index 4H Chart

Dollar Index 4H Chart, April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The Dollar Index continues its long-term rangebound trajectory, rejecting the 100.00 resistance for the fourth time since July 2025 and now finding intermediate support at the key 98.00 level.

Traders are waiting to hear more from the continued negotiations before making their next moves – To get ready for the next phase for the US Dollar, I invite you to check out our recent FX analysis.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 99.40 to 99.50 Resistance
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs
• War Highs 100.544 (Double Top)

Support Levels

• 98.00 Major Support (testing)
• Support 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

USD vs other Majors since last Monday, April 15, 2026 - Source: TradingView

The US Dollar has puked against most FX Majors in the past week and particularly more against the Australian and Kiwi Dollars – Both relieved from the lower tensions and less aggravating Energy supply fears.

The regional trends in FX seen in 2025 persist again, and this also allowed the basket of EU currencies to continue to outperform (~ +2%) the US Dollar.

US Dollar Seasonal performance throughout the first quarter – Source: Market-Bulls.com

For those who haven't seen our past week's edition, this is a seasonal performance chart for the US Dollar. April is its weakest month of the year, so that itself could weigh even more on the Greenback.

The next move will be contingent on proper progress in US-Iran talks.

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

CAD vs other Majors, April 15, 2026 - Source: TradingView.

The Loonie has once again given up a decent part of its progress against major currencies but this effect is much less exaggerated than what is observed in the US Dollar.

The Loonie is actually attempting a bounce from recent lows against its peers, supported by the better Manufacturing data and widening order book for its Petrol exports.

Keep a close eye on the CAD in the coming week.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

USD/CAD 4H Chart, April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView

USD/CAD continues to correct within its large range, having broken the key momentum 1.38 pivot.

Now evolving within an intermediate bear-channel, traders will be looking at the key 1.3750 Support to see whether it holds or breaks.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD Trading

Resistance Levels

• 1.38 Pivot +/- 150 pips
• 1.3850 Resistance
• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance
• 1.3950 Range Highs

Support Levels

• 1.3750 Pivotal Support
• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support
• 1.35 Key Psychological Support

US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday

US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar

The North American calendar is somewhat calmer until next Wednesday. The Canadian Dollar will face an important test on Monday with CA Inflation releasing at 8:30 A.M.

With Middle East developments easing, keep a close eye on Ceasefire news and Oil!

Safe Trades!

Highlights

• U.S.–Iran talks over the weekend ended without an agreement, raising doubts about whether the current ceasefire can evolve into lasting de‑escalation. Core disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.
• Crude prices have remained volatile since last week’s ceasefire news, initially rebounding before sliding again as markets pin hopes on a resumption of talks.
• We’ve updated our two main oil price scenarios – baseline and prolonged disruption – to reflect the most recent developments. Both scenarios feature upgrades to the price path to incorporate the impact of damage to infrastructure, a slower assumed recovery in oil exports and higher risk premia.
• Beyond crude, the conflict continues to ripple through refined products, LNG, freight, and fertilizer markets, with knock-on implications for inflation and global growth.

Hopes for a lasting U.S.–Iran de-escalation took a hit over the weekend after direct talks between Washington and Tehran ended without an agreement. The failure to secure a deal leaves the truce – initially announced as a two‑week ceasefire – on increasingly fragile footing.

Core differences remain unresolved. U.S. officials said negotiations broke down mainly due to Iran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions, while Iranian representatives called U.S. demands excessive and insisted on maintaining leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Initial talks ended without clarity on whether further negotiations would happen before the current ceasefire expires on April 22nd, though recent signals suggest both sides remain open to re‑engagement.

President Trump also imposed a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday morning. While the U.S. blockade is formally limited to Iranian ports, it still means that up to 2.0 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian product could be removed from global markets almost instantly.

Oil markets have been reacting swiftly to recent developments. Upon receiving last week’s ceasefire news, WTI crude fell more than 16% in a single session while Brent dropped roughly 13%, marking one of the largest one‑day declines since the pandemic era. Prices quickly pared losses after the weekend’s failed negotiations with both benchmarks pushing back above $100/bbl. As of writing, prices once again dropped around 5% as markets price in the potential for second-round talks. Zooming out, both benchmarks are up nearly 40% since the onset of the war (Chart 1).

Amid the back and forth, shipping traffic through Hormuz remains effectively shut to tanker traffic. Recent estimates show that tanker movements continue to grind well below pre‑war levels due to security concerns and a backlog of stranded crude. Chart 2 shows that on a 7-day moving average basis, around 5 tankers per day are transiting the strait, a decrease of over 90% from pre-war levels. Insurance premiums and war‑risk surcharges also remain elevated, discouraging a rapid return of commercial shipping. Overall, the ceasefire has bought markets more time, but the path forward is still extremely muddy with negotiations still in deadlock.

Updated Oil Price Outlook

We have revised up our baseline WTI forecast from last month’s projection to better incorporate known risks and new developments (Chart 3).

• The ceasefire extends beyond the initial two week window but is frequently tested and/or violated at the margin.
• The two sides ultimately return back to the table, with a deal reached by early May.
• The U.S. naval blockade persists until a deal is reached. Some tankers are selectively allowed to transit through the Strait, but flows remain severely restrained until a deal is reached.
• Full Hormuz traffic flows recover only gradually over the remainder of this year. This is in line with a growing consensus that it could now take several months for a full normalization to take place in oil markets.
• Physical bottlenecks and insurance constraints ease incrementally.

Under these assumptions, we’d expect oil prices to trade around $100/bbl for the rest of April and start to trend lower thereafter. Still, prices are expected to remain elevated relative to pre‑war levels, in the $85-95/bbl range from May-September, before settling ~$80/bbl by year-end ($73/bbl in our prior forecast). We expect mid-to-low $70/bbl average pricing in 2027.

The new path reflects stickier residual risks, slower normalization, and a fundamentally tighter market by end of the year. While the oil market entered 2026 in a structural surplus, the war reversed that trajectory. According to major oil watching agencies, and even assuming a gradual normalization in exports and production, global oil balances are more likely to remain tight and undersupplied into late 2026 rather than reverting quickly back to surplus.

Prolonged Disruption Scenario Assumptions

Our March forecast outlined an alternative “prolonged disruption scenario” that we’ve also adjusted higher to reflect subsequent events. This scenario incorporates the following assumptions:

• Any renewed talks fail and the two week ceasefire collapses or expires without extension.
• Iran re-imposes strict controls on tanker traffic through the Strait, while insurers withdraw coverage.
• Strategic reserves are exhausted, failing to fill global shortage gaps.
• Futures pricing skyrockets and physical markets get even tighter.

Under this scenario, crude oil benchmarks quickly retest recent highs ($120/bbl) before moving higher into May, especially if flows through Hormuz test March lows. We’d expect prices to peak close to $130/bbl in Q2 and hold above $90/bbl by the end of the year. A material share of the roughly 9–10 million barrels per day of export constrained supply (more on this in the next section) remains offline for an extended period in this scenario. Strategic reserves would also do little to cushion the blow, failing to offset a prolonged chokepoint disruption. Spillovers to refined products and global gas markets would also amplify inflationary pressures. For North America, demand destruction remains contained, though for countries more exposed, further escalation could tip the scales into recession.

Making Sense of the Supply Side

Barrel counting in this environment is unusually complex. Chart 4 illustrates the scale of the current oil supply disruption by tracing a path from the roughly 20 million/bpd of pre-war flows through the Strait of Hormuz to current effective supply. At present, we estimate that there are roughly 9-10 million/bpd of net export constrained volumes tied to the Gulf region. These figures capture reduced deliverability from countries including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran, and smaller Gulf exporters. Importantly, not all volume has been lost outright; instead, it reflects a combination of export constraints, infrastructure damage, and storage limitations resulting in production shut-ins. Embedded in these country-level estimates are 4.5-5.0 million/bpd of pipeline bypasses that have cushioned part of the shock. Saudi Arabia has diverted production through the East West pipeline to the Red Sea, the UAE has utilized the Habshan–Fujairah route, and limited volumes have moved through Iraq’s northern export infrastructure.

Coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) are expected to provide some relief, albeit temporary. The coordinated release of roughly 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs), equivalent to about 3 million/bpd of supply for around 40–45 days, partially offsets the loss of deliverable oil. The SPR releases do not represent new production. Once reserves are drawn down, the underlying imbalance re-emerges unless physical trade flows normalize.

Putting these pieces together, the structural shortfall facing global oil markets is still in the order of 7–8 million/bpd on a temporary, SPR adjusted basis, and roughly 10–11 million/bpd once emergency stock releases are exhausted. This represents a sizeable 7-10% of global supply and exceeds the scale of notable past crises: the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1990 Gulf War, and the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine oil shock.

Oil benchmarks and the Brent–WTI spread

Brent prices, the global seaborne benchmark, continue to be disproportionally impacted by Middle East supply disruptions. The spread to its WTI counterpart widened to as much as ~$17/bbl in late-March and has averaged significantly higher than the $3–$5/bbl long run average. And so the recent tightening – and current inversion – in the Brent–WTI spread may somewhat confuse market watchers (Chart 5). The anomaly is largely due to a temporary futures contract mismatch and not a change in fundamentals.

Front month WTI futures are still referencing May delivery, while Brent futures have already rolled to June. This effectively means the widely quoted spread is comparing higher prized prompt barrels (WTI, May) against later dated supply (Brent, June). In the current deeply backwardated market, where near term barrels are commanding exceptionally large premiums, this mismatch mechanically skews the headline spread. Once futures’ references re-align in coming weeks, this technical effect should unwind, reinstating a wider Brent premium if underlying conditions remain unchanged. What’s more, when you align delivery months (e.g. June-June) Brent still trades at a premium to WTI.

It’s worth noting that below the surface, WTI has likely picked up a modest security premium, reflecting its status as an immediately accessible and more insulated source of supply. With no exposure to contested sea lanes and ample pipeline and export capacity, U.S. barrels remain a preferred alternative for now.

Beyond crude

The fallout from the U.S.–Iran conflict is extending beyond crude oil into a broader set of globally traded commodities, with refined products, fertilizers, and natural gas among the most exposed. Within refined products, diesel and jet fuel stand out as key pressure points (Chart 6), with the former being more exposed given its central role in global freight and food supply chains. Gasoline markets are also at risk but have benefited from relatively healthier inventories in North America.

Global diesel balances are tight, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia. In the U.S., diesel prices have risen over 45% relative to pre war levels and now sit within about $0.20 per gallon of their 2022 peak. While the U.S. imports little diesel directly from the Middle East (less than 5%), it is a net exporter, meaning global shortages are quickly transmitted into higher domestic prices. If disruptions persist, diesel prices could push toward record highs near $6 per gallon. Given diesel’s outsized role as a fuel source across trucking, rail, and agriculture – as much as 70-80% of total use in these industries– price increases feed rapidly into goods inflation via higher transportation and input costs.

Fertilizers have emerged as another critical pressure point. The Gulf region accounts for a substantial share of globally traded nitrogen based fertilizers, including urea and ammonia, with an estimated 30–40% of global trade transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Prices have already responded sharply, with urea benchmarks up more than 50% in recent weeks. Given fertilizers’ central role in crop production, sustained disruptions raise the risk of lower yields and higher global food prices over the near term.

Natural gas markets have also been affected, primarily through disruptions to Qatari LNG exports, which normally account for roughly one fifth of globally traded LNG. Damage at key facilities and lingering maritime risks have materially constrained LNG flows, pushing Asian spot prices higher and reducing flexibility for Europe ahead of the storage refill season. U.S. gas markets have been more insulated due to domestic oversupply and export flexibility, but European benchmarks (TTF) have risen sharply, albeit remaining well below 2022 peaks.

Beyond energy markets, spillovers are visible in freight and insurance. War risk premiums for vessels operating in the Gulf have increased sharply, effectively acting as a tax on energy trade and pushing up delivered prices even where benchmark prices have eased. Secondary risks are also emerging in helium supplies, agricultural commodities, and industrial inputs like aluminum, underscoring that the conflict’s inflationary impulse extends well beyond crude oil alone.

Bottom Line

The ceasefire has reduced the risk of an immediate supply shock, but failed negotiations has kept the floor under oil prices firmly elevated. With export constraints through Hormuz still binding and a structural supply shortfall equivalent to roughly 7–10% of global production, the market has shifted decisively out of the pre war surplus it was heading into in 2026. Even under gradual normalization, oil balances remain tight, volatility elevated, and upside risks skewed should the truce falter.

The Federal Reserve may not be able to treat supply shocks as temporary this time, according to Beth Hammack, as the US enters the latest energy shock with inflation already elevated. While she reiterated that her baseline is for policy to remain on hold “for a good while,” she stressed that the current backdrop is fundamentally different. “We've been above that 2% goal over the past five years. Individuals have experienced a decade's worth of inflation…in that time period” .

Hammack emphasized that the key uncertainty lies in “how high are energy prices going to stay and for how long are they going to stay there.” A prolonged rise would be “more inflationary,” but the impact is not one-sided. “If it starts to impact consumers and their willingness to spend, that could mean that we see some impacts flow through in the growth numbers…that could ultimately flow through into the employment numbers.” This leaves the Fed facing a delicate balance between containing inflation and avoiding a sharper slowdown.

Crucially, she warned that the Fed’s traditional approach may no longer hold. While policymakers have often looked through supply shocks as temporary events, “all of these successive supply shocks are hard to think about” in terms of policy response. With inflation already elevated, “it may not be the same as it would be had we been entering this period at low and stable inflation.” For now, that reinforces a “patient” stance, but also signals a more complex reaction function where the Fed may be forced to respond to shocks it would previously have ignored.

• Unprecedented supply disruptions are not leading to record crude oil prices.
• Investors are selling Brent and WTI on news of the US-Iran de-escalation.

Prices are high, but do not reflect the full severity of the problems arising in the market. According to IEA estimates, oil and petroleum product flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from 20 million to 3.8 million barrels per day. Around 80 energy infrastructure facilities in the Middle East have been damaged and restoring them will take up to 2 years. OPEC+ production fell by 9.4 million bpd in March. In April, the supply deficit will increase by a further 2.9 million bpd before gradually narrowing.

The global economy is facing an acute shortage of crude oil. In the week ending 10 April, only 4 out of 40 cargo requests from oil refining companies were met. The cost of delivery contracts for the coming weeks stood at $140 per barrel. High prices will ultimately force buyers to abandon black gold. According to IEA estimates, instead of the previously expected growth in demand of 730,000 bpd, consumption will fall by 80,000 bpd.

The futures market, by contrast, remains calm. Any sign of de-escalation is seen as a reason to reduce the military risk premium, leading to a fall in Brent and WTI prices. The catalyst for the bears’ attack was Donald Trump’s statement that the conflict in the Middle East is nearing its end and that an extension of the ceasefire will most likely not be required.

Goldman Sachs believes that the disruption to oil production in the Persian Gulf has proved less severe than anticipated. The correction in Brent and WTI prices is driven by investors shifting from panic over supply disruptions to a more cautious stance.

Meanwhile, there is a growing sense that rising oil prices are not alarming the US as much as they used to be. Washington has no intention of extending the lifting of sanctions against Iran and Russia. The deadlines are due to expire shortly. Coupled with the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by US ships, this increases the size of the potential deficit in the oil market and, in theory, should lead to a rise in Brent and WTI prices. In reality, investors have become so convinced that the conflict is de-escalating that they are ignoring the fundamentals.

One reason for the US’s calm is the rise in American oil exports to a record level of 5 million bpd. In 2025, supplies were estimated at 4 million bpd. Washington is making a tidy profit from the war.

Markets

The Iranian headline roulette keeps on spinning. Within the space of two hours, the Associated Press first reported an agreement being in place between the US and Iran to extend their two-week truce. Afterwards both Iranian state media and Axios indicated that Iran nor the US confirmed those headlines. Same Iranian media did suggest that the country will meet with a Pakistani delegation today in continuation of this weekend’s collapsed talks in Islamabad. Before the cease-fire extension headlines, the Washington Post reported that the US was sending more military assets to Hormuz while Iran’s military warned that continuing the naval blockade would break the cease-fire. Anyone still following? Markets in any case gave up today, navigating stoic through the flurry of headlines. It of course comes on the heels of a massive turnaround since the biggest TACO the US President pulled as of yet. Both (US) stock markets and EUR/USD went full circle to and above end of February levels. It not only changes market positioning, but the risk assessment around it as well. We move for room for hope to room for disappointment.

Zooming in on the tiny market moves, we first and foremost see Brent crude prices stalling around $95/b. Daily changes on US, EMU and UK yield curves are limited to +1 bp. EUR/USD is currently changing hands at 1.1785 compared to yesterday’s close at 1.1795. The EuroStoxx50 corrects 0.5% after yesterday closing at its best level since March 2nd. Eco data failed to inspire with slightly stronger than expected, but outdated, February EMU industrial production data (+0.4% M/M after upwardly revised -0.8% M/M in January) and a consensus-beating US NY Fed empire manufacturing index (April). Details showed the priced paid index surging while the prices received index stabilized in the monthly series. In the 6-month ahead series, both of them are higher with the increase for prices paid being the sharpest since 2011. New orders and shipments were strong in April, but their growth pace is expected to slow in coming months. Employment showed the same divergence with the measure for current factory employment rising to the highest since end 2022, but expectations for the coming half year worsening.

News & Views

Hungarian monetary policymakers discussed but one option during the March meeting, ie. keeping the rate unchanged at 6.25%, minutes of the gathering showed today. The unanimous decision followed the council’s view that a stability-oriented approach was warranted in the current vulnerable period in order to achieve financial and therefore price stability in a sustainable manner. Maintaining the policy rate at a restrictive level was considered necessary for the time being whilst continuously analyzing the incoming macroeconomic data and financial market developments. The Hungarian central bank raised the inflation path compared to December. It linked the upward revision fully to the effects of the Iranian conflict on energy but added that the 3% (+/-1 ppt) target was still achievable in a sustainable manner in 2027H2. Several Council members, however, pointed out that the persistence of the energy market shock would be decisive in future decisions and risk assessments.

The IMF in its new fiscal monitor said global public debt dynamics did not improve in any material way last year while the Middle East conflict this year has further added a new source of fiscal pressure. Global gross government debt rose to nearly 94% of GDP in 2025 and will reach 100% by 2029, a level previously seen only in the aftermath of WW II. The IMF is not only concerned about the level of debt but also its trajectory implied by current fiscal settings. Deficits are high and/or rising due to spending pressures on everything from social needs over defense and strategic autonomy to rising interest burdens. It singled out the world’s largest economy, the US, to warn that the increase in Treasury supply is compressing the safety and liquidity premium. This in turn pushes up borrowing costs globally. US deficits averaged 6% over the past three years, gaps rarely to not seen in periods outside wars or recessions, with “no debt consolidation plan in sight”. The Washington-based institution also pointed to the danger of the US Treasury increasingly relying on short-dated debt, making it vulnerable for interest rate movements, as well as more volatile buyers (eg. hedge funds) swooping up the debt. All elements combined, makes US Treasuries vulnerable for a sudden repricing, the IMF said.

AUD/USD keeps firm tone and hit new (marginally higher) one-month high on Wednesday, underpinned by renewed risk appetite on growing hopes on a peace solution between the US and Iran.

Multiple daily MAs bull crosses and strengthening positive momentum add to bullish outlook, although the rally may pause for consolidation / limited correction before final push towards 0.7187 (new 2026 high, posted on Mar 11), as stochastic is deeply in overbought territory and RSI is turning sideways.

Larger bullish structure is expected to remain mainly intact while the price stays above 0.7053 (top of thick daily cloud) with violation of 0.7187 pivot to unmask next target at 0.7207 (Fibo 61.8% of larger 0.8007/0.5914 downtrend).

Immediate supports lay at 0.7125 (hourly higher low) and 0.7100 zone (broken Fibo 76.4% / rising 5DMA).

Res: 0.7150; 0.7187; 0.7207; 0.7271.
Sup: 0.7125; 0.7100; 0.7053; 0.7000.