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Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.43; (P) 158.98; (R1) 159.36; More...

USD/JPY is still extending consolidations from 160.45 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. On the upside break of 160.45 will target a retest on 161.94 high. However, firm break of 157.31/49 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 155.38 next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 155.24) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

• The technical picture has turned "decidedly optimistic" as EUR/USD has reclaimed its 50, 100, and 200-day Moving Averages (MAs).
• Momentum oscillators on the H4 chart, with RSI at 70.5, suggest the move is overextended.
• Bulls must secure an hourly close above the 1.1800 psychological level to maintain control.
• If the pair fails at 1.1800 and slips below the intraday pivot at 1.1780, it could lead to a correction toward the 1.1750 zone.

EUR/USD finds itself at another crossroad after recent developments have seen the pair test a multi year pivot level of 1.1450. Since then EUR/USD has attempted to grind its way higher but further upside is facing a few hurdles.

Daily Chart: Structural Shift Underway

Looking at the daily timeframe, the technical picture has shifted from cautiously bearish to decidedly optimistic. After finding significant demand at the Multi-Year Pivot near 1.1450, the pair has embarked on a sustained rally.

The most significant development on the daily chart is the price action surrounding the MA cluster. EUR/USD has managed to reclaim the 50, 100, and 200-day Moving Averages (MAs), which are currently converging around the 1.1670 - 1.1690 zone (highlighted by the red box). This area now shifts from a major resistance ceiling to a foundational support floor.

With the RSI currently at 64.4, there is still space before reaching extreme overbought conditions, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the upside toward the 1.1867 resistance level.

EUR/USD Daily Chart, April 15, 2026

Source:TradingView.com

H4 Chart: Momentum Oscillators Hint at Exhaustion

On the H4 timeframe, the "Golden Cross" and the steep ascending slope of the 50 MA (purple line) underscore the strength of the recent move. The pair recently sliced through the 1.1721 and 1.1769 horizontal hurdles with relative ease.

However, a note of caution is warranted. The RSI on the H4 is currently printing at 70.5, having recently flagged several "BEAR" pivot warnings. This indicates that while the trend is bullish, the move is becoming overextended in the short term.

We often see a period of consolidation or a "retest" of previous breakout levels when the H4 RSI hits these extremes, which could see the pair gravitate back toward 1.1769 before the next leg higher.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026

Source:TradingView.com

H1 Chart: European Session Scenarios

The hourly chart provides a clear roadmap for the day ahead. Price action is currently consolidating just below the 1.1800 handle, which will be the primary battleground for the European session.

The Bullish Scenario

For the bulls to maintain control, we need to see a clean hourly close above the 1.1800 psychological level. If buying pressure persists, the next logical target is the 1.1867 area. Traders should watch for a "bull flag" formation on the H1; as long as the pair holds above the 1.1769 support, the intraday bias remains firmly long.

The Bearish Scenario

The bearish case relies on the RSI divergence and the "BEAR" labels currently populating the H1 peaks. If EUR/USD fails to clear 1.1800 and slips below the intraday pivot at 1.1780, we could see a move toward the 1.1750 zone, where the 50 MA (H1) is currently rising to meet price.

A deeper correction toward the 1.1726 level cannot be ruled out if the US Dollar finds a haven bid during the session.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1867, 1.2000
• Support: 1.1769, 1.1726, 1.1696 (Major)

EUR/USD One-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026

Source:TradingView.com

EUR/USD is enjoying a "bullish honeymoon" after reclaiming its major daily moving averages. While the H4 and H1 oscillators suggest a temporary breather might be healthy, the structural breakout suggests that dips are likely to be bought.

The US dollar remains under pressure, testing key support levels amid expectations of easing geopolitical tensions. The market continues to price in the possibility of renewed negotiations between the US and Iran, reducing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and supporting riskier instruments. Against this backdrop, currency pairs are showing heightened sensitivity to news flow and expectations regarding further developments.

An additional source of pressure on the dollar is the decline in US Treasury yields, which is driving a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy expectations. Market participants are weighing the likelihood of policy easing, while upcoming US macroeconomic data — including business activity indicators, import prices, and housing statistics — could adjust current expectations and set the direction for further moves.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is moving lower, pressured by a weaker dollar and falling US yields. Despite the yen’s safe-haven status, current price action is largely driven by dollar dynamics and rate expectations. The move towards support reflects a market balance where pressure on the dollar outweighs demand for defensive assets.

A break of key levels could extend the decline, although stabilisation in yields may trigger a corrective rebound. Technical analysis suggests a potential retest of 158.60. A sustained move above 159.40 would be needed to signal a return of buying interest in the dollar.

Key events for USD/JPY:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (US);
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr;
• today at 20:45 (GMT+3): speech by FOMC member Michelle Bowman.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is showing a more pronounced decline. Sellers have broken below the key 1.3800 support level, pushing the pair down towards 1.3730. A sustained move below current levels could open the way for further downside towards 1.3670–1.3700.

At the same time, profit-taking and anticipation of incoming data may lead to temporary consolidation within the 1.3730–1.3800 range. The pair remains highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations and shifting rate expectations.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian wholesale sales;
• today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
• today at 21:00 (GMT+3): Federal Reserve Beige Book.

Current dynamics in USD/JPY and USD/CAD reflect a mix of geopolitical expectations, declining yields, and ongoing pressure on the dollar. Testing key support levels increases the likelihood of both continued downside in case of a break and a corrective rebound if stronger US macroeconomic data emerges.

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EUR/USD started a fresh surge above 1.1740 and 1.1780. USD/CHF declined further and is now struggling below 0.7850.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro started a major increase from 1.1665 against the US Dollar.
• There is a contracting triangle forming with support near 1.1775 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF declined below the 0.7840 and 0.7825 support levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7840 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.1665 zone. The Euro cleared the 1.1700 barrier to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.1750. Finally, the pair cleared 1.1765 and 1.1780. A high was formed near 1.1811 and the pair is now consolidating gains. There was a minor pullback toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1664 swing low to the 1.1811 high.

An Immediate bid zone on the downside is near a contracting triangle at 1.1775. The next area of interest could be near 1.1755 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

A downside break below 1.1755 might send the pair toward 1.1740. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone toward 1.1700.

If there is a fresh increase, an immediate hurdle on the EUR/USD chart is 1.1800. The first major pivot level for the bulls could be 1.1810. An upside break above 1.1810 might send the pair to 1.1850. The next selling zone could be 1.1880. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward 1.2000.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from well above 0.7880. The US Dollar dropped below 0.7850 to move into a negative zone against the Swiss Franc.

The bears pushed the pair below the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.7825. Finally, the bulls appeared near 0.7790. A low was formed near 0.7789, and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7934 swing high to the 0.7789 low.

On the upside, the pair could face bears near 0.7825. The first major resistance sits near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.7840 and a key bearish trend line.

The main barrier for an upside break could be near the 50% Fib retracement at 0.7860. A daily close above 0.7860 could start a fresh increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward 0.7880. The next stop for the bulls might be 0.7935.

On the downside, immediate support on the USD/CHF chart is 0.7800. The first major breakdown zone could be 0.7790. A close below 0.7790 might send the pair to 0.7740. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward 0.7700 in the coming days.

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Markets

ECB President Lagarde yesterday gave an update on the central bank’s views on the current oil price shock. She did so on the sidelines of the IMF/Worldbank annual meetings. Lagarde suggested that the economy currently develops between the ECB’s baseline scenario and the adverse scenario. The same conclusion could be drawn from a presentation delivered by ECB chief economist Lane for the University of Michigan. It shows oil price (current future curve) spiking somewhere between base and adverse, but the shock taking longer (2027 & 2028) to reverse than in both baseline & adverse. The current observed future curve for gas prices is almost spot on the ECB’s March baseline forecast. At its March ECB watcher conference, Lagarde differentiated the central bank’s response between “looking through” a short term (energy) supply shock, making measured and timely adjustments to a medium-term one and making profound changes in the severe scenario. Most ECB comments from the March meeting until now suggested being closer to the adverse one, requiring the measured adjustments. Lagarde thus didn’t go that far yesterday. She repeated that ECB policy is currently well-positioned. It’s too early to say if the ECB can look through higher inflation. It would even be a serious mistake if she already did so. Recall that the base scenario also worked with a Euribor forward curve where 1-2 rate hikes were embedded for 2026. While the ECB wouldn’t hesitate to act on the basis of data, it doesn’t hold a tightening bias. The specific reference to data dependence (April CPI inflation on April 30; same day as ECB meeting) and the recent relief on the energy market (following last week’s TACO) implies that the central bank is currently more erring on the side of wait-and-see for April. A big if remains of course. Just as markets embrace the current cease-fire, the tables can still turn over the next fortnight.

The combination of lower oil prices (prospect of 2nd round of talks between US & Iran; Brent from $99/b to $95/b) and the Lagarde comments triggered bull steepening of European interest rate curves as traders trimmed ECB rate hike bets for this year (from 3 to 2). German yields declined by 3.6 bps (30-yr) to 10.6 bps (2-yr). Changes on the UK Gilt curve were more or less similar with both outperforming US Treasuries. US yields shed 2.8 bps to 4.9 bps with the belly of the curve outperforming the wings. Lower oil prices created a bullish risk sentiment. The EuroStoxx50 gained 1.35% with daily moves in the US ranging between +0.66% (Dow) and +1.96% (Nasdaq). US equity benchmarks all trade back above pre-war levels. The combination of oil and risk sentiment hit the dollar with EUR/USD (1.1796 from 1.1759) equally moving back to the highest level since February. In slightly over a week time, markets went from pricing disaster to pricing an end to the war. The risk balance around that pricing equally shifted, this time leaving room for disappointment instead of hope. US President Trump is predicting “an amazing two days ahead”.

News & Views

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at a Wall Street Journal event yesterday said that tariffs “could be back in place at the previous level by beginning of July.” President Trump’s trade policy suffered a setback after the Supreme Court struck down many of the levies in February, more specifically those introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – aka the reciprocal tariffs. The US administration responded with a temporary 10% import duty with a different legal basis, which is due to expire July 24. The goal is to have by then IEEPA levies replicated by others via Section 301 investigations. The latter include probes into country’s industrial overcapacity and forced-labour practices.

For Bank of England policymaker Greene upside inflation risks following the energy price spike were “paramount” to her thinking. She said the danger of an economic slowdown is important but after being above target for the best part of five years and with the impact of previous shocks (Russian invasion) not having worn off even before the Iran war, she’s focused on the inflationary piece of the puzzle. Greene warned for waiting to have all the definitive data that showed there are second-round effects because that would mean the BoE is already to late in responding. Consumer inflation expectations have risen sharply in response to the war but Greene noted that business surveys offered more nuanced signals. UK money markets price a cumulative 35 bps hikes by the central bank this year, compared to the 85 bps seen in the first weeks after the conflict erupted.

In focus today

Focus remains in the Middle East as the US' blockade of Iranian ports continues, while details regarding the implementation are scarce.

Overnight, China will release both Q1 GDP as well as the monthly batch of data for retail sales, housing, industrial production and investments. Especially housing and consumer data are in focus as these have been the weak spots of the economy. GDP growth is expected at 4.8% y/y up from 4.5% y/y in 2025 Q4 driven by strong export growth.

Economic and market news

What happened yesterday

In the Middle East, the US continued enforcing its blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz. The US‑sanctioned, Chinese tanker that appeared to have transited the strait yesterday made a U‑turn, apparently unwilling to challenge the blockade. In the first 24 hours of its blockade, the US military said no ships passed and six vessels turned back when ordered. Media reports suggest Iran may refrain from testing the blockade to smooth the path towards renewed talks. Last night, President Trump said talks to end the war could resume within two days; Iranian officials said discussions could continue this week, although a senior Iranian official noted no date has been set yet. It would be a surprise if the talks lead to a permanent ceasefire, with the most likely scenario being an extension of the current ceasefire, if the US and Iranian officials meet again over the weekend or early next week.

In the Oil market, Brent crude fell to USD95/bbl yesterday and thus back towards the lows from last week following the ceasefire announcement. The price drop comes despite further tightening of world oil supplies as the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeps Iran's oil off the market together with the lost supplies from the rest of the Gulf. Rather the market seems optimistic that the resumption of talks between the US and Iran will lead to an eventual reopening of the strait and normalisation of the supply situation.

In the Euro Zone, Lagarde did not give any firm forward guidance signals other than ECB is data-dependent and ready to act. She mentioned that the ECB needs data to act, which speaks somewhat against action already in April, unless the important data releases clearly show significant upward price pressures. Lagarde also said that the euro area economy is somewhere between the "baseline" and "adverse" scenario. In our view the baseline scenario would lead ECB to "look through" the energy shock while "adverse" should cause two hikes.

In the US, March PPI surprised to the downside with an increase of 0.5% m/m SA (Feb: 0.5%, cons: 1.1%). Goods prices jumped 1.6% m/m, driven by energy up 8.5% m/m, partly offset by food down 0.3% m/m. Given that it was the first full month covering the period with war in Iran it was a positive that the PPI did not increase even further. Despite the lower‑than‑expected PPI, it did not shift expectations for near‑term cuts from Fed, with markets pricing roughly a one‑in‑three chance of a rate cut this year.

The US NFIB small business optimism index for March came out weak, falling below its historical average of 98.0 to 95.8 in March, down from 98.8 in February. NFIB wrote that "the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike". Hiring plans and the number of job openings that companies were unable to fill continued its downward trend from February, indicating potential signs of an easing labour market.

In Sweden, final inflation figures confirmed the flash estimate, showing declines in food, energy and services. While we expected firms to start lowering food prices ahead of the reduced VAT effective April, the effect was larger than initially anticipated. The larger decline in energy is attributed to a steeper fall in electricity prices of -19% m/m due to mild March weather (forecast: -14% m/m), while fuel prices surged, as expected.

Equities: The equity rally continued Tuesday, with most indices up about 1%. This takes MSCI World above the pre-war levels, although valuation is significantly lower due to large positive earnings revisions that have taken place since.

Growth stocks and cyclicals outperformed meaningfully yesterday. Global growth stocks beat value by more than 1pp, cyclicals beat defensives by roughly the same. This takes growth stocks 3pp ahead of value stocks over the last seven days. Normally, US would outperform European and Nordic markets in this setup - and it did, somewhat - but what is different this time around is that Europe is more exposed to Iran through energy prices. Hence, the peace trade is stronger in Europe and Nordics, which offset the cyclical growth stock preference. Normally, global large caps would also outperform small caps in this setup due to the US tech giants. However, small caps held up well in the rally yesterday, with Russell 2000 even ahead of S&P 500 and Nordic small caps meaningfully as well. US and European futures are little changed this morning.

FI and FX: The risk sentiment was supported yesterday by hopes of a new round of peace talks between the US and Iran. Oil prices dropped another 3-4%, which helped pull global yields a couple of basis points lower - UST10y at 4.25% and the Bund at 3.02% this morning. Treasuries were also supported by soft US PPI data. EUR/USD rose for a seventh day consecutive day, starting today's European session just below 1.18. EUR/NOK edged higher amid lower oil while EUR/SEK rose as well, despite improved risk appetite. The Swedish rates and FX have their eyes on Origo's inflation expectations report at 08:00 CET.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7785; (P) 0.7814; (R1) 0.7838; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.8041 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770. Decisive break there will target a retest on 0.7603 low. On the upside, above 0.7868 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8071) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

The war premium is fading—and with it, the Dollar’s support. The greenback stayed under pressure in Asian session as oil prices retreated on renewed optimism that US-Iran talks could resume within the next two days. More importantly, markets are picking up on a subtle but meaningful shift in US strategy, with President Donald Trump’s latest remarks suggesting negotiations could move directly toward a deal, even without extending the current ceasefire.

“It could end either way, but I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild,” he said, adding that “we took out the radicals.” The messaging points to a transition from a “maximum pressure” stance toward what can be interpreted as a "reconstruction-focused" approach, where the objective shifts from coercion to settlement.

However, the refusal to extend the ceasefire is a double-edged sword—it signals confidence that a deal is close, but also creates a hard deadline that could quickly reintroduce volatility if talks fail to deliver.

Meanwhile, the broader macro debate remains unsettled. The International Monetary Fund has highlighted the risk of slower growth and higher inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict, warning of significant downside risks to the global economy. In contrast, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed back against the more pessimistic global outlook, dismissing the IMF’s warnings of slower growth and higher inflation as an “overreaction.”

Speaking to reporters, he argued that while energy prices may rise in the near term, the US economy is well positioned to absorb the shock. “I think that they probably overreacted, but we’ll see,” he said, signaling confidence that inflation pressures would not become entrenched.

Bessent drew a clear distinction between the US and other major economies. He suggested that countries in Europe and Asia are more likely to rely on consumer or industrial subsidies to cushion the impact of higher energy costs—policies he views as counterproductive. In his view, such interventions risk prolonging inflation by keeping prices artificially elevated while also increasing government borrowing, effectively embedding inflationary pressures for longer.

However, Bessent's confidence hinges heavily on the geopolitical outcome. If negotiations fail and the ceasefire expires without a deal, the war premium could return sharply to energy markets, potentially validating the IMF’s more cautious scenario of persistent inflation and weaker growth.

Another key development—largely flying under the radar—is the rollout of the CAPE system for tariff refunds next Monday. US authorities confirmed that the system is ready to begin issuing refunds totaling around USD 166B to American importers, following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the tariffs as unlawful.

This represents a sizable and unexpected liquidity injection. For businesses, the refunds improve cash flow and balance sheet flexibility at a time when input costs remain volatile. In macro terms, it functions as a stealth stimulus, supporting demand without requiring new fiscal legislation.

The timing is particularly important. As geopolitical risks and energy price swings cloud the outlook, the CAPE-driven cash injection could help cushion the domestic economy. It also reinforces the narrative that the US may be better positioned than its peers to absorb external shocks.

In the currency markets, Dollar remains the worst performer for the week so far, followed by Yen, and then Loonie. Kiwi is the best, followed by Aussie, and then Swiss Franc. Euro and Sterling are positioning in the middle.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.33%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.41%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.26%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.28%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.012 at 2.408. Overnight, DOW rose 0.66%. S&P 500 rose 1.18%. NASDAQ rose 1.96%. 10-year yield fell -0.041 to 4.256.

WTI Drops Below $90, $80 Next If US-Iran Talks Deliver ‘Bridge Deal’

WTI has slipped below $90 as markets bet a second round of US-Iran talks could deliver a ceasefire extension or even a “bridge deal,” paving the way toward $80. With the war premium unwinding, traders are front-running a path to de-escalation rather than waiting for confirmation. Read more.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7785; (P) 0.7814; (R1) 0.7838; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.8041 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770. Decisive break there will target a retest on 0.7603 low. On the upside, above 0.7868 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8071) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Silver (XAGUSD) rallied to $121.6 on January 29 before entering a sharp decline that reached $60.87. We identified that decline as wave (IV) in the Super Cycle degree, and the broader structure continues to support a constructive long‑term outlook. The metal has begun to recover from the wave (IV) low, and the next important test is a break above the wave (III) all‑time high at $121.6. A clean break would remove the risk of a double correction and confirm that a new cycle is underway.

From the wave (IV) low, wave 1 formed a leading diagonal and finished at $77.63. Wave 2 then retraced to $72.57 before the metal turned higher again in wave 3. The current structure suggests that one more push is needed to complete wave 3. After that advance, a wave 4 pullback should develop to correct the cycle from the April 13, 2026 low. A final rise in wave 5 would then complete wave (1) at the higher degree.

Once wave (1) ends, a broader wave (2) decline should unfold to correct the entire advance from the March 23, 2026 wave (IV) low. That retracement will set the base for the next sustained bullish phase. In the near term, the $60.87 pivot remains the key support. As long as it holds, any pullback should attract buyers in a three‑ or seven‑swing sequence. The next upside objective aligns with the 100% Fibonacci extension of wave 1 at $89.

Silver (XAGUSD) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

XAGUSD Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybHcOiL5tdc

WTI crude briefly slipped below the $90 mark as a fresh wave of diplomatic optimism swept energy markets, after US President Donald Trump signaled that a second round of talks in Islamabad could take place “over the next two days,” according to the New York Post. The move reflects a rapid unwind of the war premium, with markets increasingly anticipating that the next meeting could deliver a ceasefire extension—or even a “bridge deal” that charts a path toward de-escalation.

The next 48 hours are critical. With the ceasefire expiring in just one week, this second round of talks is seen as decisive. Without progress, markets risk snapping back into escalation mode. But for now, the bias is toward a negotiated extension.

Crucially, traders are not betting on a full resolution yet, but on a “bridge deal.” The working assumption is that both sides will compromise on the uranium enrichment dispute, splitting the gap between Washington’s proposed 20-year freeze and Tehran’s 5-year counteroffer.

At the same time, the reality of the Hormuz situation is being reassessed. Despite strong rhetoric, the blockade has not resulted in a full disruption of global supply. Instead, it is being viewed as a calibrated tool—one that increases pressure without triggering immediate escalation.

Another factor supporting optimism is the role of Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir. Trump’s explicit praise of Munir has reinforced the perception that the next round of talks could be more structured and outcome-oriented. his has helped reinforce confidence that a technical compromise is achievable.

If a bridge deal materializes—potentially alongside a 45-day ceasefire extension—the implication is clear: oil moves lower. Such an outcome would significantly reduce the probability of supply disruption, allowing WTI to drift toward the $80 level. Importantly, $80 is not “peace pricing,” but rather reduced war premium pricing.

Technically, WTI crude's fall from 117.90 resumed by breaking through 91.36, but halted just before 50% retracement of 54.98 to 119.45 at 87.21. Further decline is in favor in the near term as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 99.52) holds. Firm break of 87.21 will pave the way to 80, which is slightly above 61.8% retracement at 79.60, 100% projection of 117.90 to 91.36 from 105.77 at 79.23