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Silver broke higher in the past week, but failed to materialize a real breakout above the $92 highs established in early February.

Despite early risk-off price action, the precious metal pulled back from the resistance level.

With the latest news of a bilateral deal on the nuclear issue potentially close, according to the Iranian Foreign Minister, the risk-off premium built in throughout the morning is somewhat easing. It would be tough to make a case for a fundamental rally in the metal. It apparently wasn't the final round of US-Iran talks, with the next round expected in Vienna on Monday.

We are concluding a rough month for metals, but they still maintain a solid outlook, having bounced off their early lows. Tomorrow's close will be crucial.

Metals performance in February – Source: TradingView

Still, bulls could find hope in the Chinese commodities Market pricing for the grey metal holding around $100 (Settled around $97 today).

In case you haven't read our recent piece on the Paper vs Physical spread, go check it out!

The idea is that a $10 to $15 spread is within the norm, so nothing too shocking there also. It remains something to keep an eye on, particularly if physical demand takes a turn for the worse – no signs of this for now.

As fundamental uncertainty prevails, let's check whether technicals help us assess whether there is indeed a direction to lean on or if range-bound conditions are actually taking over.

FYI, March isn't the best seasonal month for Metals, but we are in unprecedented times. It could be wise to keep that in the back of your mind!

Metals seasonals through March – Source: Market-Bulls.com

Let's dive into a Silver multi-timeframe analysis to identify the current course of action for the precious Commodity. Let's get right into it.

Silver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

Silver Daily Chart, February 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Silver brought some high hopes after bouncing on its 2025 upward channel in a break-retest fashion, pointing to immediate upside.

But the reality is that bulls could not form a push above the Feb 4 highs around $92. Overall, the $90-$92 area will have to be breached to relaunch hopes to even reach $100.

Still, as long as the price action remains above the $82 - $84 Pivot, consolidation towards a breakout is still a favorable scenario for upside in the commodity – The flattening Daily RSI also points in that direction.

The 50-Day Moving Average is acting as key support at the significant $84 level, so keep a very close eye on whether prices hold above or below this. Let's take a closer look.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

Silver 4H Chart, February 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Bulls are attempting a rebound in the immediate action but will have to face the 4H 200-period MA, acting as resistance for intraday action ($88.90).

A break above $92 will once again be necessary for a full breakout. Failing to do so hints at a retest of $84.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• 4H 200-MA $88.90
• Range highs $90 to $92
• Higher Timeframe Major Resistance $90 to $95
• Key psychological resistance $100 to $104

Support Levels:

Key Pivot $82 to $84

• intraday support $76 to $77.50
• Major 2026 Range Support $70 to $72
• December FOMC Minor Support $60 to $64 (Feb Lows)
• $50 to $54 Major Support
• October FOMC bottom $46.00 to $47.00

1H Chart

Silver 1H Chart, February 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Bulls are taking the lead on the shorter timeframes, attempting to tackle the 50H MA/4H 200 ($88.80) in the current bounce.

A mini-range is actually forming for consolidation traders:

• A 88.60 to $88.80 intraday resistance looks solid
  • Breaking above hints at a quick test of the $92 resistance
    • Any close above this would point to a $100.00 retest
• On the support side, look at $86.00 to $86.60

Safe Trades!

• Iranian FM confirms "good progress" was made on both nuclear and sanctions issues during the latest round of US-Iran talks in Switzerland.
• Officials are returning to their capitals for consultations, with technical expert talks scheduled for next week in Vienna.
• Prices briefly spiked on rumors the talks had failed over US demands (stop enrichment, hand over uranium), but quickly dropped most gains after news of "significant progress."

The US and Iran have made a lot of progress in their latest talks, mediator Oman said on Thursday.

The goal of these meetings is to settle long-term concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and to prevent the US from launching new military strikes. This is happening at a tense time, as the US has been significantly increasing its military presence in the Middle East.

On Thursday, the two sides met in Switzerland for two separate sessions (one in the morning and one in the afternoon). However, they didn't speak directly; instead, officials from Oman acted as go-betweens, passing messages back and forth between:

• Iran’s side: Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
• The U.S. side: Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Before the talks ended, a high-ranking Iranian official told Reuters that a basic deal is possible but only if the US stops mixing nuclear arguments with other, unrelated disagreements.

We finally heard from the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi a short while ago who stated “Today was one of the best, most serious & longest rounds of negotiations. We made good progress & seriously engaged with elements of a deal regarding both #nuclear & sanctions issues. We are close to an understanding on some issues, though differences remain on others.”

The developments have also been having a massive impact on oil prices as well as haven demand as it is another layer of uncertainty for market participants to consider.

What happens next?

• Consultations: Officials from both countries are heading back to their capitals to discuss the progress.
• Future Meetings: Formal negotiations will start again soon.
• Technical Talks: Experts are scheduled to meet in Vienna next week to work on the specific details.

Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi shared the update on X (formerly Twitter) after the most recent round of talks in Switzerland ended.

Overall risk sentiment does not appear to have been affected that much with AI still the dominant theme especially for Equity markets.

Why did oil prices jump then fall?

When it comes to the Oil market, one which has been affected by the US military buildup in the Middle East and prices were largely flat after some whipsaw price action earlier in the day.

Prices actually spiked by more than a dollar earlier in the day. This happened because reports suggested the talks had hit a wall. Specifically, the U.S. was reportedly demanding two things that Iran didn't like:

1. That Iran stop all uranium enrichment.
2. That Iran hand over all its highly enriched uranium to the U.S.

However, once Oman announced that "significant progress" was actually being made, prices dropped back down and lost most of those gains.

Market participants are laser-focused on these talks. Here is the basic rules they are likely following right now:

If talks fail: Traders worry about war or supply problems in the Middle East, which makes oil more expensive.

If talks succeed: The risk of conflict goes down, which causes a sell-off and lowers prices.

For now though, key support rests at the 62.66 handle (200-day MA) before the 61.67 and the 100-day MA 60.27 come into focus.

A move higher from here in Oil prices faces a test at the 66.15 handle before the 67.00 handle comes into play.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart, February 26, 2026

Source:Tradingview

GBPAUD: ⬇️ Sell

• GBPAUD broke support zone
• Likely to fall to support level 1.8900

GBPAUD currency pair under the bearish pressure after the price broke the support zone between the support level 1.91950 (former strong support from 2024) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from July.

The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (C) from August.

GBPAUD cryptocurrency can then be expected to fall to the next support level 1.8900, double bottom from 2024 and the target for the completion of wave 3.

FTSE 100: ⬆️ Buy

• FTSE 100 broke resistance level 10800.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 11000.00

FTSE 100 index under the bullish pressure after the price broke above the key resistance level 10800.00 intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from December.

The breakout of the resistance level 10800.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of January.

Given the clear daily uptrend, FTSE 100 index can then be expected to rise to the next resistance level 11000.00, the target for the completion of the active impulse wave (3).

• The US Dollar has been holding strong amid tariff chaos and (supposedly) advancing talks in Geneva with Iran – More on this coming soon.
• FX Markets have been consolidating ahead of key geopolitics and are awaiting to take on a direction.
• Dollar Index Technical Analysis ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls.

The US Dollar really went on a run last week after having broken out of its early 2026 downward trend.

Markets have been looking for clarity, and clarity they could not find. Geopolitics seems to be advancing with the ongoing diplomatic exchanges in Geneva, which began in the mid-Swiss afternoon and should resume soon after a 3-hour break.

Except for a quick awakening in yesterday's session (and the Japanese Yen, often going onto its own adventures as of late), Forex Markets have remained desperately muted in the past weeks of action, with most Major pairs holding a 1,000 pip range – and that's being generous!

As uncertainty reigns, traders can find ranges to play around with tight stops, to remain active and see even more advantage in taking quick trades while waiting for bigger opportunities.

Even the Aussie Dollar, which sent another beat on its CPI earlier this week, couldn't find the momentum to extend its lead.

Everyone is looking at the same currency:

• The US Dollar. What will happen to it, and what will be the outcomes of the US-Iran talks?
• It seems that a breakout could be on the way with the Dollar bouncing right as I conclude this piece.
• Markets will learn more soon, which should lead to significant breakouts across the board.

We’ll explore a few scenarios for upcoming breakouts in an in-depth technical analysis of DXY.

Dollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Daily Chart

Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. February 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The US Dollar has once again confirmed that its rangebound conditions precede above all trends and narratives in its latest February rebound.

It is now holding an upward trendline towards the mid-range resistance (98.00) which has been rejecting a few times.

It is still early to confirm, but remaining above its Mid-term Pivot (97.40) with an RSI above neutral adds further chances of an upside breakout – Look for a break above 98.00.

• The breakout will be contingent on heightened Middle East tensions remaining elevated.
• Breaking the upward trendline (immediate support at 97.47) would allow for a correction lower.
  • To confirm a downside reversal, wait for a close below the 97.40.
    • A turn lower from here could lead to a later downside breakout in the Dollar Index – A small probability scenario for now.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. February 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The Dollar is bouncing back above its 4H 50 and 200-period Moving averages, prompting an immediate control from the bulls.

If the lead extends, expect the 98.00 key resistance to break amid multiple tests within an Rising Wedge (bullish) formation.

• In that event, look for trades expressing this view in other FX pairs (GBP/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD?)

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 98.00 Key Resistance (Immediate test)
• Mini-resistance 98.80 to 99.00 (next resistance)
• 99.40 to 99.50 January Resistance
• 100.376 November highs

Support Levels

• 4H 50 and 200-period MA 97.60
• Upward trendline 97.47
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00 (mini-range lows, 4H 50-MA)
• Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00
• Trump USD Flash Crash 95.55
• 95.00 Main psychologic support

1H Chart

Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. February 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The US Dollar is currently extending higher and will soon be facing the test of its resistance.

Traders would want to confirm a break above 98.00 in today's session to avoid an inevitable continued consolidation.

• 98.80 - 99.00 will be the next resistance

Safe Trades!

Summary

• The Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs provides limited relief for the rest of the world, with weighted average tariff rates modestly lower. This is consistent with our baseline view of steady (but uncertain) global growth, rather than a material downside shock.
• The binding constraint now comes from Section 122’s flat surcharge (10% as implemented, with 15% still under consideration), applied uniformly across countries.
• This results in clear relative winners and losers versus the pre-Supreme Court ruling landscape. Under a 15% Section 122 regime, tariff rates fall the most for China, India, Brazil and South Africa, while they rise for the UK, EU, Australia and Japan.
• The ruling also creates an unprecedented legal vacuum for the 19 countries that struck trade deals with the US in recent months. Deal rates lack an enforceable legal mechanism, having been implemented exclusively through IEEPA authority.
• In practice, this sets up a classic prisoner’s dilemma. While countries could challenge or renege, fear of retaliation via Section 301/232 investigations alongside non‑trade leverage in defense, technology and diplomacy, will likely deter overt confrontation. Slow‑walking of commitments appears more likely than outright withdrawal. Section 338 tariffs remain a wild card, though the legal bar for deployment appears high. On net, trade deal momentum with the US is likely to slow materially in 2026.

Key takeaways

The U.S. weighted average tariffs rate declined to 13% from 17% following the Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs and the administration’s imposition of 10% Section 122 tariffs on February 24 (Figure 1). If the proposed 15% Section 122 surcharge is finalized, weighted average tariffs would rise to around 15%, still modestly below prior levels. This limited relief supports our view of steady global growth amid elevated policy uncertainty and rising idiosyncratic risks (see International Economic Outlook: February 2026).

Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, now serving as the interim replacement, has a critical structural limitation: it must be applied on a non‑discriminatory basis. While it authorizes a temporary import surcharge to address balance‑of‑payments concerns, it does not allow country‑specific differentiation. As a result, the administration cannot legally impose a 10% rate on one country and 15% on another under Section 122 alone. For now, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has implemented the original 10% rate, while the administration works toward finalizing the increase to 15%. The surcharge stacks on top of Most Favored Nation (MFN) duties and existing section 301 tariffs, while fully replacing IEEPA‑based rates.

This produces meaningful cross‑country dispersion relative to prior tariff levels. Figure 2 and Figure 3 compare current and planned statutory tariffs with those prevailing pre‑ruling for major advanced and emerging economies, applying existing exemptions and (unstacked) sector specific tariffs. Under a 10% Section 122 regime, tariff rates decline for most trading partners with the United Kingdom and Australia as notable exceptions with unchanged rates. Under a 15% regime, tariff relief is largest for China, India, Brazil and South Africa versus pre-ruling levels, while tariff burdens rise for the UK, Australia, EU and Japan.

The Supreme Court decision creates a unique and unresolved legal situation for the 19 countries that finalized trade deals in recent months. All bilateral agreements since 2025 such as those undertaken by the EU (July), UK (May), Japan (September), South Korea (November), Indonesia (July), Taiwan, India and others, were implemented via executive orders with tariff rates set using IEEPA. The Court’s 6‑3 ruling made clear that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, voiding the sole enforcement mechanism underpinning these agreements. The deals themselves were executive agreements, not Congress‑ratified treaties, leaving them without a clear legal foundation.

Section 122 authority expires on July 24, 2026, unless extended by Congress—an outcome we see as unlikely given bipartisan opposition and heading into the November Midterm elections. In the interim, the administration is likely to rely more heavily on accelerated Section 301 investigations, which offer the most robust path toward restoring country‑specific tariff authority and face no statutory rate cap. These are likely to be complemented by ongoing and prospective Section 232 investigations across sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, drones and other strategic industries. Section 338 tariffs under the Tariff Act of 1930, which authorizes duties of up to 50%, remain a theoretical option, but their non‑use thus far suggests a higher legal and political threshold.

A strategic game is now unfolding that likely implies slower deal-making in 2026. Section 122 appears to function as a bridge while the administration reconstructs a legally durable tariff regime via 301/232 authority. Countries that negotiated deals face a sharp asymmetry: concessions (investment pledges, market access, export‑control alignment) were real and in many cases already delivered, while agreed tariff ceilings have been legally nullified. We see responses falling into three broad buckets:

1. Wait and see (EU, UK): The EU has frozen ratification of its July agreement that had achieved a 15% "inclusive" deal rate rather the potential 15% Section 122 tariffs "adding" to 2-4% MFN rates. The European Parliament’s trade committee has postponed a vote pending “full clarity” from Washington. EU leverage remains significant with $600bn in pledged US‑directed investment and zero tariffs on US industrial goods. A breach of deal ceilings would allow the EU to withdraw concessions and reimpose retaliatory tariffs. The UK has adopted a similar posture, though with less confrontational rhetoric. Figure 2 shows the UK's gap between the threatened 15% tariffs and the 10% deal rate is the widest among peers.
2. Signal commitment and seek protection (Japan, Korea, Mexico, Canada): Japan and Korea have also raised concerns that their agreements set 15% as an all‑in ceiling, compared to the Section 122 surcharge. Japan’s Trade Minister Akazawa has explicitly flagged the discrepancy, yet Japan has reiterated its intention to proceed with its $550bn investment commitment, including a recently announced $36bn critical minerals package. Korea has likewise indicated it will honor its deal. Separately, we expect Mexico and Canada to continue to push for USMCA compliance as a means of reducing the impact of announced tariffs. Ultimately, this ups the ante for ongoing discussions of USMCA extension that need to be completed by July 1, 2026.
3. Slow‑walk compliance and delay engagement (China, India, Brazil, South Africa): With IEEPA leverage removed, US coercive power has weakened materially. These countries were subject to the highest IEEPA rates and are the primary beneficiaries under Section 122. We expect slow compliance under existing understandings and a deliberate delay in deeper deal‑making as the administration works to re‑establish its tariff authority. The lower tariff rates imply modest improvement in near-term sentiment even as the medium-term uncertainties about the economic relationship with the US linger.

Markets

Global markets remain indecisive. European yields are changing 1-2 bps across the curve. The (absence of) movement came as ECB president Lagarde testified at a hearing before the Committee of Economic and Monetary affairs of the European Parliament. Lagarde assessed that inflation has fallen markedly and is fluctuating in a narrow range near 2%. Headline inflation in January even dropped to 1.7%. The ECB chair remains relatively optimistic on growth. Wage growth remains elevated but has eased gradually and is expected to continue to moderate to around 3% in the medium term. Interestingly, Lagarde elaborated on the gap between actual inflation data and inflation as perceived by consumers. Citizens still perceive prices to be rising faster than the official data suggest. This gap, while not unusual by historic standards, ‘has implications for economic decisions and for trust in institutions – trust that helps anchor inflation expectations’. In this respect, ECB consumer CPI inflation expectations will be published (January) tomorrow. Even as the ECB projects CPI inflation to hold close to 2% over the policy horizon, consumers in the December survey saw 1-y inflation expectations at 2.8% and 3-y expectations at 2.6%. The ECB chair at this stage elaborating on the topic at least does not suggest that the central bank is inclined to swiftly react to a (temporary) undershoot of headline inflation. US yields initially also traded unchanged, but finally some further easing continued (2-3 bps across the curve). Weekly jobless claims rose slightly from 208k to 212k. However, data might be distorted due to the Presidents Day Holiday. Even so, the level at least also suggest nothing worrisome happening on the US labour market. Similar hesitancy on equity markets as investors stay cautious in their assessment on solid Nvidia results published yesterday in the US after the close. Still, the EuroStoxx 50 touched a new all-time record intraday (currently little changed). US indices open mixed (Dow +0.45%; Nasdaq + -0.5%). On FX, EUR/USD is going nowhere near the 1.18 big figure. The yen this morning tried a cautions rebound as (hawkish) BOJ member Takata reiterated his view that Japan almost reached price stability, paving the way for further normalization. However, both the rise in Japanese yields and the yen was limited and/or temporary (yen). Markets apparently aren’t convinced that Takata’s assessment has enough weight to counterbalance PM Takaichi ‘hope’ for monetary policy to continue supporting her reflationist approach. USD/JPY hovers near 156.

News & Views

Belgian inflation in February quickened to 1.45% from 1.1% with a 0.54% monthly pace picking up too from last month’s 0.44%. Core inflation, which does not take into account energy products and unprocessed food, stood at 2.83% in February, compared to 2.54% in January. Inflation for services has gone from 4.32% to 4.75% while rents inflation decreased from 3.55% last month to 3.48% this month. Food inflation stands at 0.66% this month, up from 0.44%. Plane tickets (25.1%), electricity (3.9%) and natural gas (4.5%) showed some of the biggest increases. Clothing (-3.3%) and confectionery (-2.9%) weighed down on the index. The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) amounts to 1.4% in February 2026.

Former Italian PM Enrico Letta in an Op-ed for Politico doubled down on his long-standing call for the completion of the European single market. He considers it as the strongest response Europe can offer in “a world reshaped by Trump and by the accelerating logic of geopolitical competition”. Letta said we currently have the sum of 27 national markets, calling it a political and strategical weakness that we pay for in higher costs, weaker investments, slower innovation and reduced capacity to act in the world. He proposes the One Market Act in which a small number of game-changing priorities are outlined so that things remain realistic yet ambitious. Three of them are sectoral with Letta calling for a true savings and investments union to unlock private capital, a complete energy union to reduce (external) exposedness and a united telecom that allows for technological sovereignty. Letta additionally stresses the importance of free flow of knowledge, data, research and skills while advocating for a European legal framework (the 28th regime) alongside national ones so that companies can scale across borders with simplicity. Finally, Letta said a stronger market must go hand in hand with cohesion, essential services, SMEs and a robust social dimension as not to undermine support for the European project.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1783; (P) 1.1799; (R1) 1.1826; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. Near term risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.1928 resistance holds. Below 1.1740 temporary low will target 1.1576 support next. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level and turn near term outlook bearish. However, break of 1.1928 argue that fall from 1.2081 has completed as a correction, and revive near term bullishness. Retest of 1.2081 should then be seen next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3509; (P) 1.3537; (R1) 1.3588; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, below 1.3432 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3342 support. Firm break there should confirm that it's already correcting the whole rise from 1.2099. However, break of 1.3711 resistance will argue that the decline has completed as a near term correction, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3867.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3008 support holds, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) should still be in progress for 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3008 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal and target 1.2099 support next.