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Key Highlights

• Bitcoin started a steady increase above $70,000 and $73,500.
• A bullish trend line is forming with support at $72,650 on the 4-hour chart of BTC/USD.
• Ethereum also climbed over 10% and surpassed $2,350.
• Gold is grinding higher toward the $4,950 resistance.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price remained supported above $68,000 against the US Dollar. BTC formed a base and started a recovery wave above $70,000.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price settled above $71,200, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bulls even pumped the price above $75,000.

A high was formed at $76,094, and the price started a consolidation. Immediate support sits at $74,000 and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $70,554 swing low to the $76,094 high.

The first key support could be $73,350. The main breakdown support could be near $72,500. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $72,650 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $70,554 swing low to the $76,094 high.

A downside break below $70,650 might start another decline. The next major support is $71,200, below which BTC could decline toward $70,000.

On the upside, the price now faces resistance near $76,000. The first key hurdle is $76,500. A close above $76,500 could send the price toward $78,000. Any more gains might call for a test of $80,000.

Looking at Ethereum, the price also gained bullish momentum above $2,300, and the bulls could now aim for a move toward $2,500.

Today’s Key Economic Releases

• US Import Price Index for March 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +2.0%, versus +1.3% previous.
• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for April 2026 – Forecast -0.5, versus -0.2 previous.

The US Dollar may have just seen its brightest days at the cost of a world-shaking US-Iran-Israel conflict.

Having bullied through a gigantic rebound since February, the Greenback had been invincible. Petrodollar trades and higher-for-longer US rates tend to largely support the global reserve currency.

Add to it historic bearish positioning against it, and traders saw the perfect conditions to push the USD to 11-month highs.

This was enough to question whether dedollarization was just a fantasy, rather than a proper regime change in Financial Markets.

Nevertheless, things changed in the past couple of weeks. President Trump, frustrated by developments such as lower stock markets, higher commodity prices, and a more expensive dollar—economic trends he publicly dislikes—found himself in a pessimistic mood right ahead of the November midterm elections.

Hence, the Administration has been pushing aggressively for a truce, specifically because this aligns with the prolonged mid-April deadline for the conflict to end.

While a proper peace deal hasn't yet been reached, diplomatic attempts are, for now, heading the right way, leading to a consequent tumble in the US Dollar.

Daily FX performance against the US Dollar – Courtesy of Finviz (April 14, 2026)

You can see the direct result from today's FX performance.

The US Dollar lost around 2% of its value against a basket of major currencies and has begun to revert to its trajectory.

Reaching a key support level, however, Currency traders could be taking a break from their dollar sales. We will explore key levels right after taking a quick look at the Dollar Index chart.

Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. April 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Stalling at the major 98.00 Support, the US Dollar could be seeing a short-term pause in its selling; hence, it is important not to get caught in the crosswinds of a potential reversal.

However, this could provide opportunities to catch a pullback in the currency and offer decent setups in major FX pairs!

In preparation for the next phase of a longer-run dollar selloff (conditional on the conflict really coming to an end), we will look at three key FX Majors and their intraday timeframes to see how the range in the Dollar Index affects their own currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD.

EUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels

EUR/USD 4H Chart. April 14, 2026– Source: TradingView

EUR/USD quickly profited from the truce to rally 2,000 to 1.18.

However, meeting a significant resistance zone and overbought RSI conditions, the odds for upside continuation from here a slim (on the short-run).

In such conditions, buying on a pullback makes the most sense.

• Aggressive buyers could look at 1.1750 for entries (less optimal)
• The best setup would be located at the 1.17 to 1.1720 March Pivot
  • This would require the peace process to keep progressing.
• Aggressive sellers could look to enter at current levels and will want to see a break below 1.17 to add to their positions (in the event of worsening fundamentals)

Levels of interest for EUR/USD Trading

Resistance levels

• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)
• 1.1850 - 1.1860 Resistance
• Morning highs 1.18114
• Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone

Support levels

1.17 to 1.1720 March Pivot

• Pivotal Support 1.1625 - 1.1635
• 1.1540 to 1.1570 War Support
• War and August 2025 Lows 1.14

USD/CAD 4H Chart and Technical Levels

USD/CAD 4H Chart. April 14, 2026– Source: TradingView

USD/CAD had taken quite a lead on its reversal from the higher-part of its 1.3550 to 1.3950 range.

Finding buyers at the 1.3750 Pivotal support, the pair already begun its pullback, hence it could be wise to wait for a retest of the higher bound of the 1.38 pivot zone and bear channel (1.3810) to enter shorts.

Coming back above the 4H 50-period MA (1.3862) would put back the advantage to the bulls.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD Trading

Resistance Levels

• 1.38 Pivot +/- 150 pips
• 1.3850 Resistance
• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance
• 1.3950 Range Highs

Support Levels

• 1.3750 Pivotal Support
• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support
• 1.35 Key Psychological Support

GBP/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels

GBP/USD 4H Chart. April 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The Pound is under similar conditions as the Euro but grabs the upper hand in terms of strength and momentum against the US Dollar.

GBP/USD is reaching overbought conditions and could see a decent support retest in coming times after extending without pullbacks.

Aggressive buyers will look at the 1.3500 psychological level to catch a wider rally in the pair.

More defensive pullback traders will have to wait for a retest of the key pivot, which would only be reached if the tone sours ahead of Thursday's US-Iran talks.

Levels of interest for USD/CHF Trading

Resistance levels

• December Resistance 1.36 (testing)
• Resistance 1.37 zone
• 2025 Resistance around 1.38
• 1.3850 to 1.39 2021 Resistance

Support levels

• 1.35 minor support
• Key Pivot and Support 1.34 to 1.3440
• Pivotal Support 1.3250 - 1.33
• 1.32 War Support

Safe Trades!

ECB President Christine Lagarde pushed back against rising market expectations for near-term rate hikes, signaling caution despite the energy shock from the Middle East conflict. Investors have increasingly priced the risk of tightening as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drives fuel costs higher in the energy-importing Eurozone, but Lagarde made clear it is too early to draw firm policy conclusions.

Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Lagarde emphasized the high level of uncertainty and rejected attempts to lock in a policy path. “It doesn't predicate that we'll go in one direction or the other,” she said, adding that the current situation “certainly does not determine a rate path” at this stage. She also cautioned against overconfidence, noting that colleagues predicting a specific outcome “don't know, honestly.”

The ECB’s latest projections underscore the dilemma. While the baseline assumes the impact of the Iran war will be short-lived, alternative scenarios point to more persistent risks. In the adverse case, higher energy prices and broader spillovers could push inflation significantly higher, with the most extreme scenario seeing inflation reach 4.8% next year. Lagarde said the economy is currently “between the baseline and the adverse”.

The IMF has warned that the global economy faces a more prolonged and damaging shock if the Middle East conflict escalates, with oil prices potentially averaging as high as $125 in 2027 under a severe scenario. Crucially, this is not a short-lived spike but a sustained high-price environment, implying persistent inflation pressure and a more challenging policy backdrop.

Under its baseline assumption that the conflict remains limited, the IMF projects global growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026 before edging up to 3.2% in 2027. Inflation is expected to rise modestly in 2026 due to energy costs before resuming its decline. However, even this relatively benign scenario points to a fragile balance between slowing growth and lingering price pressures.

The severe scenario paints a much more concerning picture. Oil prices are projected to double relative to earlier assumptions and remain elevated, averaging around $110 in 2026 and $125 in 2027. At the same time, global headline inflation could climb to 5.8% in 2026 and exceed 6% in 2027, reflecting both higher energy costs and a rise in inflation expectations.

That rise in expectations is a key transmission channel. The IMF estimates that one-year-ahead inflation expectations could increase by up to 100 basis points in advanced economies and 130 basis points in emerging markets. This would reinforce price pressures and make it more difficult for central banks to bring inflation back under control.

Financial conditions would also tighten significantly. The IMF warned of a broad risk-off episode, with corporate credit spreads in advanced economies and China widening by around 100 basis points, while emerging markets could see sovereign spreads rise by a similar magnitude and corporate spreads by as much as 200 basis points.

Importantly, policy responses in such a scenario would be constrained. Rather than supporting growth, central banks would be forced to focus on containing inflation, even as activity weakens. This creates a classic stagflationary setup, where tightening financial conditions and elevated borrowing costs further weigh on economic momentum.

Even in the IMF’s adverse scenario, growth slows meaningfully to 2.5% in 2026, with oil averaging around $100 and inflation rising to 5.4%. This underscores that risks are already skewed to the downside, even without a full escalation.

Full IMF World Economic Outlook release here.

Markets

There’s still a role for diplomacy to end the war in the Middle East. It’s the main takeaway from the last couple of days during which geopolitical tensions rose again after a first round of talks collapsed over the weekend. The US naval blockade sparked Iranian outcry but hasn’t triggered formal retaliation just yet. It’s instead rumoured that Iran is considering a pause to its own shipments through the Hormuz Strait to avoid testing the blockade and undermine efforts for a second round of negotiations. These could be held as soon as Thursday. First signs of fresh talks emerged yesterday, pushing Brent oil back below $100. It’s staying there today ($98). European stocks build on yesterday’s intraday comeback by adding 1.1%. The EuroStoxx50 is closing in on the 6k barrier it lost since the war erupted. WS adds another 0.5%-1% with the S&P500 back at the level before the war. When Trump backed down on its own April 8 deadline last week, markets flipped more optimistic on the conflict and they haven’t really let go on that feeling since. Bunds catch up with Treasuries yesterday and push German yields between 2 and 6.5 bps lower in bull steepening fashion. US rates change less than 1 bp across the curve. The US dollar remains in the defensive against most G10 peers. EUR/USD pushes ahead to the next big figure north of 1.18, surpassing pre-war levels. DXY mirrors the move with a decline towards 98. The constructive risk sentiment supports the likes of sterling too, dragging EUR/GBP again below 0.87. Cable (GBP/USD) surges to the highest level since mid-February just shy of 1.36.

Some economic data featured the agenda today, although they didn’t leave any marks on trading. US March PPI missed expectations. The headline print was expected at 1.1% on surging energy prices but rose a more moderate 0.5%, nevertheless bringing the annual figure to a four-year high of 4% from 3.4%. Energy did spike 8.5% m/m and a nearly 16% rise in gas prices was responsible for almost half of the 1.6% goods price rise (most since August 2023), BLS said. Services prices stagnated and underlying PPI gauges showed sub-consensus gains of 0.1% and 0.2%. ADP’s employment measure registered an average increase of 39k per week in the four-week period ending March 28. It’s the fastest since ADP began compiling the data mid-2025. The remainder of the day centers around speeches by BoE governor Bailey and ECB president Lagarde, in which we’ll look for potential hints about their reaction function to structurally elevated energy/oil prices. The IMF in any case downgraded its world growth forecast as a result of the oil shock. The most optimistic projection assumes a short-lived conflict and a moderate gain in energy prices. GDP growth would amount to 3.1% (from 3.3% in January) and inflation would rise to 4.4%. In a middle scenario growth stands at 2.5% and inflation 5.4% while the severe one has <2% (= close to a global recession) and 5.8% penciled in.

News & Views

According to a draft document seen by Bloomberg News, the European Commission will put forward an “AccelerateEU” plan on April 22. It’s a policy umbrella used to accelerate electrification across the economy. The EC targets to increase electricity’s share of final energy consumption from around 23% today to 32% by 2030. Two crisis in the space of less than 5 years time underscore the danger of geopolitical volatility combined with Europe’s dependency on fossil fuel imports. The EU’s plan will be based on five pillars, including boosting coordination among member states on issues such as filling gas storage sites and releasing oil reserves, targeted support for consumers and industry, decreasing consumption of oil and gas, boosting electrification and spurring investments in the transition.

The International Energy Agency published its April oil market report. Oil demand is expected to contract by 80 kb/d this year, as the Iran war upends the global outlook. This is 730 kb/d less than in last month’s Report and a forecast 1.5 mb/d 2Q26 decline would be the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption. Demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist. Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d in March, with continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and ongoing restrictions to tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz leading to the largest disruption in history. Oil prices posted their largest-ever monthly gain in March. Soaring spot crude benchmarks and differentials outpaced futures markets in the process. Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy.

• The Nasdaq 100 has completed a "V-shaped" recovery after the recent sellof.
• The overall trend is clearly bullish across all major timeframes, with the index currently trading above the key 25,320 resistance-turned-support level.
• The RSI is signaling overbought conditions on the Daily, H4, and M15 charts, which suggests that immediate upside momentum may be slowing and consolidation or a minor "retest" is likely.

The Nasdaq 100 has undergone a massive rally. After a period of aggressive selling that saw the index dip toward the 22,800 handle, we have seen a textbook "V-shaped" recovery.

The most notable development is the breakout from the descending channel (highlighted by the dark trendlines). This breakout was confirmed with a strong impulsive candle that cleared both the 100-day (red) and 200-day (yellow) Moving Averages (MAs).

Currently, the index is trading above the 25,320 resistance-turned-support level. The RSI on the daily is approaching overbought territory (65.5), but it still shows room for a final push toward the previous all-time highs near 26,200 before a meaningful correction is required.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart, April 14, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

H4 and H1 Chart Analysis: Momentum and Market Structure

Moving down to the H4 and H1 timeframes, the bullish momentum is even more evident. The "Golden Cross" or proximity of the moving averages suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

H4 Perspective: The index has cleared the 25,091 level with ease. We see a series of higher highs and higher lows. The H4 RSI is currently at 74.1, indicating that while the trend is strong, we may see some intraday consolidation or a minor "retest" of the breakout zone at 25,320.

H1 Perspective: The hourly chart shows a steep ascending slope. The moving averages are perfectly fanned out in a bullish alignment. We are seeing some "Bear" divergence signals appearing on the RSI (red labels), which suggests that the immediate upside might be slowing down as we approach the US open.

Nasdaq 100 Four-Hour Chart, April 14, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

M15 Analysis: US Session Scenarios

Let us take a look at the M15 ahead of the US session. The index is currently hovering around 25,526.

The Bullish Scenario

If the US session opens with strong buying pressure, look for a sustained hold above 25,500. A break and close above the most recent intraday high (25,560) would open the door for a move toward 25,750. The bulls will be emboldened as long as the price stays above the 20-period MA (Blue line) on this timeframe.

The Bearish Scenario

The RSI is currently signaling overbought conditions (71.0) with several "Bear" pivot markers. If we see a "fake-out" at the open, a move back below 25,480 could trigger a liquidation of intraday long positions. This would likely lead to a move back toward the 25,320 support level (the red horizontal line), which acted as a major ceiling previously.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 25,560, 25,750, 26,000
• Support: 25,320, 25,091, 24,667

Nasdaq 100 M15 Chart, April 14, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

The Nasdaq 100 is in a clear bullish cycle across all major timeframes. However, given the vertical nature of the recent move and the RSI levels, the risk-to-reward ratio for new longs at current market prices is less than ideal.

Traders would be wise to look for pullbacks to the 25,320 or 25,100 zones to join the trend, rather than chasing the breakout at these elevated levels.

The US stock market has returned to pre-war levels, turning a blind eye to the Fed’s interest rate hike, the oil crisis, and the threat of stagflation. Brent is trading $30 a barrel above levels before the Middle East conflict, Treasury bond yields are 35 to 40 basis points higher, and traders have all but given up hope that the Fed will cut rates in 2026. Conditions are far worse than at the end of February, yet the S&P 500 is at the same levels.

Expectations of strong corporate earnings, a robust economy and peace in the Middle East underpin the rally in the broad stock index. Despite the continuing uncertainty in the region, investors are buying into rumours of an agreement between the US and Iran. Markets are tired of geopolitics and are switching to fundamentals.

According to Wall Street analysts’ forecasts, earnings per share for S&P 500 companies will rise by 12.5% in Q1, the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Meanwhile, the number of companies issuing upbeat corporate earnings forecasts is set to reach its highest since 2021.

Strong earnings are impossible without a robust economy. Experts at the Wall Street Journal have slightly lowered their forecast for US GDP in 2026, from 2.2% to 2%, which broadly matches the average growth rate of 2.1% over the past six years. The likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months has also risen only slightly, from 27% to 33%, despite the devastating impact on the economy from events over the past month and a half. All this is thanks to artificial intelligence and the subsequent productivity gains.

Although Fed rates are high by historical standards, the real yield on US Treasury bonds, against a backdrop of accelerating inflation, does not suggest that monetary policy is too tight.

The S&P 500 correction in March lowered companies’ fundamental valuations. This includes the price-to-forward-earnings ratio. Shares now appear undervalued and attractive, which is stimulating buying.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7023; (P) 0.7062; (R1) 0.7136; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside for retesting 0.7187 high. Strong resistance could be seen there on first attempt. But for now, further rally is expected as long as 0.7000 support holds, in case of retreat. Meanwhile, decisive break of 0.7187 will confirm larger up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6706 cluster support holds, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) should still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). However, firm break of 0.6706 will dampen this bullish case, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6420 support, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3759; (P) 1.3819; (R1) 1.3851; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665. Decisive break there will extend the decline from 1.3965 to retest 1.3480 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3876 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.