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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7712; (P) 0.7735; (R1) 0.7751; More….

USD/CHF is still extending consolidation pattern from 0.7603 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of stronger rise, upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7828) to complete the pattern. On the downside, below 0.7627 will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will indicate that a larger scale corrective bounce in underway and target 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.54; (P) 156.19; (R1) 157.02; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 156.81 temporary top. On the upside, above 156.81 will resume the rally from 152.25 to 157.65 resistance first. Firm break there will target a retest on 159.44. high. On the downside, however, break of 153.90 will bring deeper fall to 152.25 support. Overall, with 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a corrective pattern. Also, rise from 139.87 is expected to resume through 159.44 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.93) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

FX markets are subdued, with major pairs largely contained within recent ranges. Dollar is edging higher from earlier lows, but the move lacks follow-through amid a strong risk-on backdrop. Yen staged a mild recovery after hawkish signals from BoJ officials, yet it remains the week’s worst performer. Risk-on dynamics continue to outweigh policy rhetoric.

For the week so far, Australian Dollar still tops the board, though upside momentum has softened. The currency appears to be consolidating after its CPI-driven advance, while struggling to break decisively against the greenback. Sterling and Euro are also on the firmer side, while Kiwi and Swiss Franc trade in the middle. On the other hand, Yen, Dollar, and Loonie sit at the bottom of the leaderboard.

With no major data releases today, currencies are trading off broader risk tone and geopolitical developments, particularly the latest round of US-Iran negotiations in Geneva. Ahead of that, oil prices have dipped notably, with WTI slipping back below 65 and Brent under 70, reversing last week’s surge. The pullback reflects growing optimism that diplomacy may prevail over escalation.

The third round of US-Iran negotiations opened in Geneva. Reports from Geneva suggest Iran is showing seriousness and flexibility, potentially paving the way for at least an interim nuclear agreement. While tensions remain, investors increasingly see the probability of immediate military conflict as lower than earlier feared.

The standout story, however, is Chinese Yuan. It has reached its strongest level against Dollar since early 2023 and broken a significant technical barrier against Euro, marking its strongest level since May 2025. This is not merely a Dollar-weakness move. The appreciation is broad-based and could reflect shifting geopolitical calculations.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Beijing appears to be a contributing factor. European officials have openly called for a stronger Yuan to help rebalance trade. The surge in Yuan is being read as a "calculated concession" by Beijing. By allowing the Yuan to rise, China is signaling a willingness to reduce the trade imbalance in exchange for avoiding a "two-front" trade war with both the US and the EU. Additionally, some investors anticipate the People's Bank of China will tolerate continued appreciation into the “Two Sessions” to reinforce economic stability messaging.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.21%. DAX is up 0.44%. CAC is up 0.89%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.023 at 4.300. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.001 at 2.709. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.29%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.44%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.01%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.87%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.01 to 2.157.

US initial jobless claims edge higher to 212k, vs exp 211k

US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 212k in the week ending February 21, slightly above expectation of 211k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 220k.

Continuing claims fell -31k to 1,833k in the week ending February 14. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3.5k to 1,848k.

Eurozone economic sentiment moderates in February, services drag

Economic sentiment in Europe softened in February, with the Economic Sentiment Indicator falling by 1.0 point to 98.3 in both the EU and the Eurozone. The Employment Expectations Indicator also declined, slipping to 98.5 in the EU and 97.6 in the Eurozone. Both gauges remain slightly below their long-term average of 100.

The drop in the ESI was driven primarily by a marked deterioration in services confidence, while construction also contributed modestly to the decline. In contrast, sentiment in industry and among consumers was broadly stable, and retail trade confidence continued to improve, suggesting that weakness is not yet broad-based.

Among the largest EU economies, France (-2.8) recorded the sharpest fall in sentiment, followed by Poland (-1.9) and Italy (-0.6). Germany and the Netherlands (-0.2 each) saw only marginal declines, while Spain was broadly unchanged.

ECB’s Lagarde: Rising real incomes to support growth

Speaking before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the Eurozone economy should find support from rising labor income and resilient employment. Investment in defence, infrastructure and digital transformation is also expected to underpin growth, even as the region faces higher tariffs, a stronger Euro and ongoing global policy volatility.

She pointed out that real wages growth have moved above early-2021 levels, reflecting inflation that has fallen below nominal wage gains. Although wage growth is still elevated, it is gradually moderating and expected to settle near 3% over the medium term.

Lagarde reaffirmed that the ECB sees inflation stabilizing around its 2% target. That assessment supported the decision earlier this month to keep key interest rates unchanged.

Looking ahead, she emphasized that policy will remain data-dependent and assessed meeting by meeting. ""We are not pre-committing to a particular interest rate path," she reiterated.

BoJ's Ueda signals hike still possible in spring

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that a March or April rate hike remains on the table, stating in a Yomiuri interview that the central bank will continue raising interest rates if economic and price projections evolve as expected. "We will hold a policy meeting in March and April, so we would like to reach a decision by scrutinising data available by then," he said.

Additionally, Ueda noted that the BOJ does not necessarily need to wait for the quarterly Tankan survey release on April 1 to act, as it relies on a range of business and economic indicators. He also also rejected suggestions that the BOJ is behind the curve on inflation, arguing that underlying price pressures have yet to fully reach the 2% target.

Markets had earlier pared back expectations for a near-term hike after reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed reservations about further rate increases. Ueda’s remarks appear to have recalibrated those bets, bringing March and April back into active consideration as the BoJ weighs the impact of December’s hike on lending, investment, and consumption.

Takata says BoJ should consider another “gear shift”

BoJ Board member Hajime Takata said in a speech that overseas risks, particularly around tariff policy, had been a key consideration when evaluating the timing of another rate increase. However, he said initial concerns over those external factors "have abated", clearing part of the uncertainty that had previously restrained policy action.

Domestically, Takata emphasized that Japan’s long-standing "the norm of prices not increasing easily has already been dispelled". Medium- to long-term inflation expectations have risen. Price increases now "have a greater tendency to generate second-round effects". He also cautioned that external shocks could produce greater-than-expected price surges.

Looking ahead, Takata highlighted expectations of a fourth consecutive round of wage increases in 2026, driven largely by base pay gains. In that context, he said the BOJ should prepare for another “gear shift” in policy and communicate under the assumption that the 2% price stability target is nearly achieved.

NZ business confidence falls, wage and price expectations rise

New Zealand’s ANZ Bank Business Confidence index eased from 64.1 to 59.2 in February. However, the Own Activity Outlook edged higher from 51.6 to 52.6, suggesting firms remain broadly optimistic about their near-term operating conditions.

Beneath the surface, inflation pressures appear to be building again. The net percentage of firms expecting to raise prices over the next three months fell 4 points to 53%, partially reversing last month’s surge. Yet cost expectations remain elevated, with 79% of firms anticipating higher costs — the highest level since July 2023.

More notably, one-year inflation expectations rose from 2.77% to 2.93%, their highest level since July 2024. Wage expectations climbed above 3% for the first time since April 2024.

ANZ noted that pricing intentions are not consistent with widespread expectations of a steady decline in headline inflation this year. Although inflation is projected to return to the target band in Q1 and the RBNZ has expressed confidence in the disinflation path, the survey highlights ongoing upside risks.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.54; (P) 156.19; (R1) 157.02; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 156.81 temporary top. On the upside, above 156.81 will resume the rally from 152.25 to 157.65 resistance first. Firm break there will target a retest on 159.44. high. On the downside, however, break of 153.90 will bring deeper fall to 152.25 support. Overall, with 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a corrective pattern. Also, rise from 139.87 is expected to resume through 159.44 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.93) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 212k in the week ending February 21, slightly above expectation of 211k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 220k.

Continuing claims fell -31k to 1,833k in the week ending February 14. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3.5k to 1,848k.

Full US jobless claims release here.

• The S&P 500 rally is putting pressure on the greenback as a safe-haven asset.
• The Labour Party’s defeat in local elections will create problems for the pound.

While the market tries to figure out tariffs, EURUSD is rising thanks to US stock indices and improved global trade. According to HSBC, supply chains have been restructured with a sharp increase in turnover in Asia. At the same time, trade in services, which is not affected by import duties, is growing faster than trade in goods. This dynamic supports the export-oriented economy of the eurozone and contributes to the strengthening of the euro.

According to 57% of Bloomberg experts, Christine Lagarde will leave her post as head of the ECB earlier than expected. Klaas Knot appears to be the main candidate to replace her. He is a ‘hawk’, which increases the likelihood of a deposit rate hike in 2027. The futures market expects the federal funds rate to decline next year. Divergence in monetary policy will be a powerful driver of the EURUSD rally in the medium- to long-term.

The rise in US stock indices is putting pressure on the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. At the same time, hawkish rhetoric from FOMC officials and the decline in the probability of the Fed easing monetary policy in June to 46% are holding back the bulls’ offensive on EURUSD.

The statement by Board Member Hajime Takata that the Bank of Japan should raise the overnight rate sooner rather than later caused USDJPY buyers to retreat. According to the chief hawk, it is time to add to the rhetoric that the inflation target is almost achieved and that external shocks could accelerate consumer price growth.

However, the government recently approved two doves to the Bank of Japan’s board of governors, so the camp of supporters of higher rates is actively shrinking. This could lead to a prolonged pause in the cycle of monetary policy normalisation and pressure on the yen. The interest rate differential plays into the hands of the bulls on USDJPY.

The growth in global risk appetite has helped the pound recover. Nevertheless, GBPUSD remains under pressure. The Bank of England is moving closer to lowering its repo rate, and Labour’s defeat in local elections will fuel rumours of Keir Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister. The Polymarket betting market gives a 63% probability that this will happen before the end of 2026.

Economic sentiment in Europe softened in February, with the Economic Sentiment Indicator falling by 1.0 point to 98.3 in both the EU and the Eurozone. The Employment Expectations Indicator also declined, slipping to 98.5 in the EU and 97.6 in the Eurozone. Both gauges remain slightly below their long-term average of 100.

The drop in the ESI was driven primarily by a marked deterioration in services confidence, while construction also contributed modestly to the decline. In contrast, sentiment in industry and among consumers was broadly stable, and retail trade confidence continued to improve, suggesting that weakness is not yet broad-based.

Among the largest EU economies, France (-2.8) recorded the sharpest fall in sentiment, followed by Poland (-1.9) and Italy (-0.6). Germany and the Netherlands (-0.2 each) saw only marginal declines, while Spain was broadly unchanged.

Full Eurozone ESI release here.

Speaking before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the Eurozone economy should find support from rising labor income and resilient employment. Investment in defence, infrastructure and digital transformation is also expected to underpin growth, even as the region faces higher tariffs, a stronger Euro and ongoing global policy volatility.

She pointed out that real wages growth have moved above early-2021 levels, reflecting inflation that has fallen below nominal wage gains. Although wage growth is still elevated, it is gradually moderating and expected to settle near 3% over the medium term.

Lagarde reaffirmed that the ECB sees inflation stabilizing around its 2% target. That assessment supported the decision earlier this month to keep key interest rates unchanged.

Looking ahead, she emphasized that policy will remain data-dependent and assessed meeting by meeting. ""We are not pre-committing to a particular interest rate path," she reiterated.

Full remarks of ECB's Lagarde here.

EUR/USD rose for the second consecutive day and is approaching 1.1819. Sentiment towards the US dollar remains under pressure amid uncertainty over US tariff policy, which is eroding confidence in the American currency.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that tariff rates for individual countries could be increased from the current 10% to 15% or higher, but did not specify the criteria for such changes.

President Donald Trump adopted a measured tone on tariffs in his annual address to Congress. At the same time, he made it clear that he would not change his strategy, despite the Supreme Court’s decision to cancel his large-scale “reciprocal” duties.

In terms of monetary policy, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.

Additional caution stems from ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear program, the next round of which is taking place today in Geneva.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.1818. An upward move towards 1.1862 appears likely, with scope for an extension towards 1.1888. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains above zero and is pointing higher, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is developing the next upward wave towards 1.1860. After reaching this level, a pullback towards 1.1818 could follow, before a renewed advance towards 1.1888. Technically, this scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80.

Conclusion

In summary, EUR/USD continues its gradual recovery as persistent uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy weighs on dollar sentiment. While Trump’s Congressional address offered no clarity on the trade front, and ongoing US-Iran negotiations add a layer of geopolitical caution, the technical picture remains constructive. The pair is building momentum within a consolidation range, with upside targets at 1.1862 and 1.1888. Both MACD and Stochastic indicators support the bullish bias, suggesting further gains are likely in the near term. The key level to watch is 1.1818 – holding above this support keeps the upward trajectory intact, while a break below could signal a temporary pause. For now, the path of least resistance appears higher.

• USDJPY pauses upside at key resistance level.
• Holding the 50‑day SMA remains crucial for bullish bias.
• Momentum indicators reflect indecision.

USDJPY is trading under pressure near the upper boundary of a pennant pattern around 156.30. The yen firmed after BoJ Governor Ueda highlighted the March and April meetings as possible windows for rate hikes, while the dollar eased amid trade uncertainty and improving sentiment around tech earnings.

Technically, attention remains on the repeated tests of the pennant’s upper trendline at 156.30. A clean breakout would signal renewed upside within the broader uptrend. However, momentum indicators show hesitation – the stochastics are flat near overbought territory, the RSI sits just above the 50-neutral mark, and the MACD remains negative but above its signal line.

The pair is also probing support at the 50‑day simple moving average (SMA). A decisive break below would expose the 20‑day SMA near 155.10, then the weekly low around the 154.00 level. Below this, key structural support sits at the pennant base, aligned with the long-term uptrend from April and the 152.80 floor that has held since November. A drop through that region would shift the near‑term outlook to neutral.

Conversely, a breakout could encounter resistance at the February 9 trough near 157.60, then the multi‑year peak around 159.45, and finally the September highs above the 160.00 intervention zone.

Overall, USDJPY is consolidating at a critical structural level, testing the pennant ceiling while momentum still lags, reflecting a neutral bias ahead of key data from both economies on Friday. A sustained close above the 50‑day SMA is needed to keep the bullish breakout scenario alive.

Key takeaways

• Oil pullback within strong uptrend: WTI eased 2.4% from its six-month high near $67 after a surprise 16 million-barrel surge in US crude inventories, but remains one of 2026’s top-performing assets with a 14.2% YTD gain.
• Geopolitical risk premium intact: Rising Middle East tensions and upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva continue to underpin oil prices, keeping the broader bullish narrative alive despite short-term volatility.
• Bullish flag formation above key support: WTI is consolidating in a bullish flag above $64.15 and its 20-day MA. A breakout above $67 could target $67.80 and $69.08/69.35, while a break below $64.15 risks a pullback toward $62.38/62.05.

Since hitting a 6-month high of around $67.00/barrel last Thursday, 19 February 2026, the price action of WTI crude oil has staged a minor pullback of -2.4% to print an intraday low of around $65.20 on Wednesday, 25 February.

Yesterday’s lackluster movement in oil has been due to higher-than-expected U.S. crude inventories that rose by 16 million barrels last week, the most in three years, above consensus estimates of 1.5 million barrels, according to data compiled by the Energy Information Administration.

WTI crude is one of the top outperformers so far in 2026

Fig. 1: WTI crude & other key cross assets year-to-date performances as of 25 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

Oil has been one of the best-performing asset classes so far this year due to rising geopolitical risk premiums, especially out of the Middle East, as the US military forces amass in the region around the Red Sea ahead of the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks on Thursday, 26 February in Geneva.

WTI crude oil futures recorded a year-to-date gain of 14.2% as of Wednesday, 25 February 2026 (see Fig. 1). Let’s now focus on the short-term technicals of WTI crude.

WTI Oil – Bullish consolidation above 20-day moving average

Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 26 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Since Monday, 23 February 2026, the price actions of West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) have evolved into a potential minor “bullish flag” configuration, a type of bullish consolidation within an ongoing uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).

Watch the $64.15 key short-term pivotal support. A clearance above $67.00 increases the odds of a continuation of the minor bullish impulsive upmove sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $67.80 and $69.08/69.35 (also a Fibonacci extension) in the first step.

However, a break and an hourly close below $64.15 invalidates the bullish tone for a slide to retest the next intermediate support zone of $62.38/62.05 (also the key 200-day moving average).

Key elements to support the bullish bias on WTI Oil

• Minor “bullish flag” configuration in play since Monday, 23 February 2026, above a rising 20-day moving average.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator remains supported by an ascending trendline at around the 40 level.