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US producer prices rose more than expected in January, with headline PPI climbing 0.5% mom against forecasts of 0.3%. The increase was largely driven by a sharp 0.8% gain in final demand services, while prices for final demand goods declined -0.3%.

On an annual basis, PPI eased slightly from 3.0% yoy to 2.9% yoy, but above expectations of 2.6%. The moderation in the yearly rate does little to offset the firm monthly momentum, particularly as underlying measures continue to trend higher.

Core PPI excluding foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% mom, marking the ninth consecutive monthly increase. Over the past 12 months, this core gauge advanced 3.4%, suggesting persistent pipeline price pressures.

Full US PPI release here.

Canada’s economy closed 2025 on a slightly firmer note, with GDP rising 0.2% mom in December, above expectations of 0.1%. The expansion was driven by gains in both services-producing and goods-producing industries, suggesting a modest rebound in activity toward year-end.

Services industries led the monthly increase, rising 0.2%, supported by wholesale trade, the public sector, and transportation and warehousing. Meanwhile, goods-producing sectors also expanded 0.2%, partially reversing back-to-back declines in October and November, with manufacturing and utilities contributing to the recovery. In total, 11 of 20 industrial sectors recorded growth in December.

Advance estimates suggest real GDP was essentially unchanged in January, pointing to a fragile start to 2026.

The quarterly picture was less encouraging. GDP by industry edged down -0.1% in Q4 following a solid 0.6% expansion in Q3. Manufacturing was the main drag, contracting -1.5% in the quarter—its third decline of 2025 and fourth in the past five quarters—highlighting persistent weakness in the sector.

Full Canada GDP release here.

Market Overview

Crypto market capitalisation has fallen back to $2.3 trillion, remaining at Thursday’s low. The upward momentum gained at the beginning of the week has not developed further, with traders preferring to sell as prices rise.

Over the past three weeks, the market has mainly traded within the $2.20–2.40 trillion range. Local resistance roughly coincides with a 23.6% recovery from the decline between the mid-January highs and the early February lows. Such narrow consolidation is often seen in strong bear markets.

Bitcoin has fallen back below $67,000, failing to build on its gains as it comes under pressure alongside tech giants on Wall Street. While the first cryptocurrency remains well above the lows it rebounded from on Tuesday, it is slowly sliding down and has given up almost half of that rebound.

News Background

The value of USDT stablecoin reserves held by exchanges has fallen from $60 billion to $51.1 billion over the past two months. CryptoQuant warns that a drop below $50 billion will trigger a massive sell-off in the crypto market.

Meanwhile, Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales has suggested that the price of the first cryptocurrency will collapse to $10,000 by the middle of the century. In his opinion, Bitcoin has completely failed as a store of value.

Strategy shares topped the list of large US companies by short position volume. The market doubts the reliability of the company’s Bitcoin strategy, under which the firm issued shares and attracted debt financing to purchase cryptocurrency.

Ethereum developers have presented a plan for seven hard forks between now and 2029. Updates are expected every six months. So far, only two of these have been named: ‘Glamsterdam’ and ‘Hegota’. These will be implemented this year.

Large Ethereum holders have started selling the cryptocurrency at a loss. The DAT company ETHZilla has officially abandoned its ETH accumulation strategy and changed its name. The firm has decided to focus on tokenised assets (RWA).

The DAT company GD Culture Group (GDC) is set to sell some of its Bitcoin reserves to fund a share buyback programme. Last September, the firm acquired 7,500 BTC, placing it 15th among public companies in terms of Bitcoin reserves.

The total volume of loans on the DeFi platform Aave has exceeded $1 trillion. This makes it the first project in the decentralised finance industry to reach this significant milestone.

USD/JPY is trading lower at 155.79 on Friday. Meanwhile, the yen remains under pressure at the end of the week. It is on track to record a second consecutive weekly decline amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy.

This week, the Japanese government nominated two academics known for favouring loose monetary policy to the BoJ board. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, following a meeting with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, expressed concerns about the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

In contrast, board member Hajime Takata, who holds a more hawkish stance, has called for additional policy tightening. He also indicated that the bank's price stability target is nearly achieved.

Governor Ueda himself noted that the BoJ will carefully assess incoming economic data at its March and April meetings, leaving the door open to a potential short-term rate hike.

Economic statistics are also influencing market expectations. Inflation in Tokyo has slowed to its lowest level in over a year, partly due to government subsidies for utilities. This has reinforced expectations that the central bank may refrain from tightening policy in the near term.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around the 156.15 level. A decline towards 155.50 is expected today, after which a corrective move back towards 156.15 may follow. A breakout above this range could open the way to further gains towards 157.50. Conversely, a break below the range would signal a continuation of the downward move, initially towards 154.18, with scope to extend towards 151.82. Technically, this bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero but is pointing firmly lower.

On the H1 chart, the pair has broken below the 156.15 level and is forming a downward wave towards 155.40. A subsequent correction back to 156.15 cannot be ruled out. This short-term bearish bias is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing lower.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is declining amid persistent uncertainty regarding the Bank of Japan's next policy move. Market expectations are being pulled between hawkish signals from some board members and more cautious communication from the leadership, reinforced by softer Tokyo inflation data. Technical analysis suggests scope for further short-term downside, although a corrective bounce remains possible.

As the XTI/USD chart shows, the price of a barrel:

• → set fresh 2026 highs above $67 earlier this week;
• → but yesterday posted a sharp reversal lower (as indicated by the blue arrow).

The spike in volatility was driven by conflicting reports from Geneva, where talks between the United States and Iran were taking place:

• → some sources suggested negotiations had reached an impasse, as Washington insists on a complete halt to uranium enrichment;
• → meanwhile, according to Omani mediators, progress has been made and another round of talks is scheduled for next week.

Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart

When analysing the oil price chart on the morning of 19 February, we suggested that:

• → the market could soon set a new high for the year (which materialised, with a series of highs formed between 19 and 23 February);
• → the 65.20 level would act as support (confirmed on 23 February).

Today’s chart indicates growing bearish pressure, reflected in the following:

• → WTI struggled to hold above its yearly highs, forming signs of potential bull traps;
• → yesterday’s candle (marked with a red arrow) shows a pronounced upper wick.

At the same time, bulls clearly defended the former resistance level at $63.73. The lower boundary of the ascending trajectory that has defined WTI price movements in 2026 also supports the bullish case.

It is worth noting that an OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for the weekend. According to media reports, analysts expect an increase in output from April, which could heighten concerns about oversupply — particularly after US crude inventories rose on Wednesday. As a result, Monday’s trading may open with elevated volatility.

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Switzerland’s economic outlook brightened in February as the KOF Economic Barometer rose from 103.3 to 104.2, beating expectations of 103.1. The increase resumes the upward trend seen in recent months after a brief dip in January and leaves the gauge comfortably above its medium-term average of 100.

According to KOF, the improvement reinforces a positive outlook for the Swiss economy, with strength concentrated on the demand side. Indicator bundles linked to consumption and foreign demand both point to favorable momentum.

However, the production side presents a more "mixed" picture. While some sectors remain stable, manufacturing is experiencing a setback, signaling that industrial momentum has yet to fully align with the broader demand recovery.

Full Swiss KOF release here.

Switzerland’s economy returned to modest growth in Q1, with GDP expanding 0.1% qoq. While slightly below expectations of 0.2%, the reading marks a rebound from the -0.4% contraction recorded in Q3. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, performance varied across sectors, with domestic demand providing the main source of support.

The chemical and pharmaceutical industry, a key pillar of the Swiss economy, grew 1.9% after a sharp decline in the previous quarter, aided by pickup in exports. However, the rest of manufacturing contracted by -1.3% amid subdued sales and weaker export performance. Overall, industrial value added stagnated, though goods exports edged up 0.6% following two quarters of decline.

Domestic final demand rose 0.5% and helped stabilize the broader economy. Private consumption expanded 0.4%, while construction investment increased 1.0% on stronger building activity. Retail activity surged 2.0%, supporting a 1.7% rise in trade value added.

Full Swiss GDP release here.

• USDCAD drifts sideways between the 20- and 50-day SMAs.
• Momentum indicators reflect a wait‑and‑see stance.

USDCAD continues to consolidate within the tight 1.3650-1.3710 range defined by the 20‑ and 50‑day simple moving averages (SMAs), trading near 1.3670. The pair sits at a technical inflection point as markets await key releases from both economies – US PPI and Canadian GDP – which could help shift directional bias. Oil price dynamics also remain important, with supply concerns potentially limiting upside for the pair.

The momentum indicators reinforce the indecisive tone – the RSI is flatlining around the neutral 50 level, the MACD is edging slightly higher from negative territory, and the stochastics are losing momentum near the midline, collectively mirroring the lack of clear direction.

A decisive break above the 50‑day SMA at 1.3714 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November-January decline at 1.3730, where the short-term downtrend also intersects, could tilt the bias to the upside. Such a move would open the door toward the 200‑day SMA near the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.3809, which currently forms a death‑cross structure with the 50‑day SMA.

Conversely, initial support lies at the 20‑day SMA at 1.3650, positioned just above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3638. Below that, support extends to 1.3575 and the four‑month low near 1.3471 recorded earlier this month.

Overall, USDCAD remains range‑bound, with the rebound from four‑month lows stalling and the broader downtrend intact as markets await key catalysts to set direction.

Markets

A dull start in Asian and European trading in the US gradually morphed in to a risk-off pattern. A lukewarm acceptance of strong Nvidia results apparently caused some vertigo, preventing especially US equity indices to go for a retest of the top levels reached end last month. The Dow closed little changed (-0.3%). The Nasdaq dropped 1.18%. Hesitance on US equity markets again directed a safe haven bid to US Treasuries. Treasury yields dropped between 5.3 bps (5-y) and 4 bps (30-y). Comforting (from a Fed point of view) US weekly jobless claims (212k) in this respect had no impact on the intraday dynamics on US interest rate markets. Especially US yields in the 2y-5y sector are now closing in on important support levels (October lows). The 10-y this morning is attacking the 4% barrier. EMU yield followed the US at a distance with German yields easing between 0.6 bp (2-y) and 2.2 bps (30-y), also in a bull flattening move. ECB’s Lagarde in a speech before the EU Parliament elaborating on still elevated consumer inflation expectations despite recent decline in (headline) inflation at least suggests that the bank is in no hurry to change is wait-and-see stance. Neither the risk-off nor the changes in interest rates (differentials) in the end had a big impact on the dollar. EUR/USD rebounded off intraday lows near 1.1775 to close near the 1.18 big figure. USD/JPY finished slightly lower (156.1) as the debate on (the timing of) further normalization between the BOJ and the government continues. Oil showed quite some intraday volatility but holds near $71 (Brent) as the US and Iran indicated to continue talks on Iran’s nuclear program next week.

Asian equities this morning again show a mixed picture, holding up reasonably well given the correction in the Nasdaq yesterday. The Chinese central bank (PBOC) removed a 20% reserve requirement on FX forward contracts, lowering the cost of shorting the yuan in an apparent move to slow recent sharp (and this week even accelerating) rise of the currency. USD/CNY ‘rebounds’ to 6.8575. In the UK, the Green party winning the special election in an Manchester area (Labour dropped to third place after the Reform UK party) again raised questions on PM Starmer’s position adding to broader political (and policy) uncertainty. Sterling’s performance this morning is a first barometer. EUR/GBP is attacking to key 0.8745/50 resistance area. A break at least would be significant from a technical point of view. We also keep an eye on UK gilts, which performed ‘remarkably’ well this month (and also yesterday). Later today, national CPI data will be published in Spain, Germany and France, giving a hint for next Tuesday’s EMU flash release (expected near the January levels). Also the ECB January inflation expectations survey, might get some more attention that is usually the case after Lagarde’s comments yesterday. In the US, January PPI data maybe are a bit outdated. The Chicago PMI frontruns the traditional US early month data update next week. We keep a close eye at US yields closing in on key support levels (cf supra). This weekend, OEPC+ on Sunday will hold a video conference discussing output levels (increases?) for April (and beyond).

News & Views

Tokyo’s headline price level fell by 0.4% M/M in February, with the annual print grinding slightly higher from 1.5% to 1.6%. Core inflation, ex fresh food declined by 0.3% M/M with the Y/Y-figure falling below the BoJ’s 2% inflation target (1.8% from 2%) for the first time since October 2024. A significant plunge in energy prices because of subsidies to support households with rising costs of living pulled utility prices 9.2% M/M and 6.6% Y/Y lower. Core inflation filtering out both fresh food and energy prices increased by 0.3% M/M and ticked up from 2.4% Y/Y to 2.5% Y/Y. Service price inflation rose by 1.5% Y/Y, up from 1.4%. National inflation numbers for the month of February will only be published on March 24. These “sticky” details should keep the Bank of Japan on course to extend its tightening cycle throughout this year. Money markets attach a 70% probability to a rate hike from 0.75% to 1% at the April meeting when the central bank updates its growth and inflation forecast.

UK consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in February, with the index compiled by Growth for Knowledge declining from -16 to -19 (vs -15 consensus) and matching the softest level since May of last year. Details especially showed worries amongst households when it comes to their personal finances. Both on how they perceived them the last 12 months and how they expect them the next year. They’re also less eager to engage in major purchases despite a significant retracement in savings intentions. This mix of details is a clear nod the ongoing cost-of-living crisis with households prioritizing day-to-day spending.

Key takeaways

• Corrective rebound gaining traction: Gold has broken above $5,170 and extended its bounce from the $4,402 low, with price action evolving within a minor ascending channel and maintaining a bullish bias above $5,046 support.
• Falling real yields supportive: The US 10-year real yield has declined sharply from 1.98% to 1.72%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and reinforcing the rebound narrative.
• Upside levels in focus: While momentum remains constructive, a sustained move above $5,307/$5,320 opens room toward $5,448. A break below $5,046 would jeopardize the recovery and expose deeper supports near $4,960–$4,703.

Gold (XAU/USD) cleared above a key short-term resistance level at $5,170 (also close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the waterfall decline from 29 January 2026 all-time high to 2 February 2026 low). It printed an intraday high of $5,250 on Tuesday, 24 February 2026.

Short-term technical elements and intermarket analysis suggest the ongoing corrective rebound phase from the 2 February 2026 low of $4,402 is likely still has room to extend further to the upside.

Lower opportunity cost of holding Gold

Fig. 1: US 10-year Treasury real yield medium-term trend as of 27 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The 10-year US Treasury real yield (after subtracting 10-year US inflation expectations from the 10-year US Treasury breakeven rate, which is then subtracted from the nominal yield) has staged a bearish reaction from its key medium-term pivotal resistance of 1.98% (see Fig. 1).

It has fallen by 24 basis points (bps) from 5 February 2026 to a current intraday level of 1.72% as of Friday, 27 February 2026, at the time of writing.

Price actions have reintegrated below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which suggests further potential weakness for the 10-year US Treasury real yield to retest the 17 September/23 October 2025 swing low area at 1.66%.

Hence, via the lens of intermarket analysis, a further drop in the 10-year US Treasury real yield lowers the opportunity cost of holding Gold (a non-interest income-bearing asset), in turn supporting the ongoing rebound seen in Gold (XAU/USD).

Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) for Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold (XAU/USD) – Evolving within a minor ascending channel

Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) as of 27 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Bullish bias above $5,046 key short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average with next intermediate resistances coming in at $5,307/320 (also a Fibonacci extension) and $5,448 (see Fig. 2).

On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below $5,046 put the minor corrective rebound phase (running from 2 February 2026 low) in jeopardy to expose the next intermediate supports at $4,960, $4,842, and $4,703.

Key elements to support the bullish bias on Gold (XAU/USD)

• Its price actions have started to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since 6 February 2025, with its upper and lower boundaries at around $5,448 and $5,046, respectively.
• Its hourly RSI momentum indicator has been supported by an ascending trendline since 24 February 2026 and just pushed above the 50 level. These observations suggest a potential build-up of short-term bullish momentum.