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ECB Draghi: Cliff-edge Brexit a significant downside risk to financial stability

ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated in an IMF conference that "broad-based growth in the euro area will continue." He added the central bank's policy measures "continue to underpin domestic demand, which remains the mainstay of the ongoing expansion." Global expansion will also continue to benefit Eurozone exports.

On inflation, higher headline inflation reflected rise in energy prices. "While measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted, they have been increasing from earlier lows." And he echoed the monetary policy account that "uncertainty around the inflation outlook is receding." While ECB is on course to stop asset purchases, he emphasized that "significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term."

On financial stability, he said "recent episodes of heightened financial market volatility have led to only limited contagion across countries and markets." However, "the uncertainty triggered by a cliff-edge Brexit could have the potential to pose a more significant downside risk to financial stability."

His full speech here.

XAUUSD Analysis: Jumps To 1,215.00

The gold price appreciated 2.18 % since Thursday's session. During the previous trading session, the yellow metal passed the most technical indicators including the 50.00% Fibo retracement level to trade at the 1,215.00 level. On Friday morning, the yellow metal returned to the large pattern to trade at the 1,218.32 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, the gold will trade sideways between the monthly R2 at the 1,227.33 mark and the monthly R1 at the 1,209.98 mark due to the resistance of the large descending pattern line. Most likely, the gold will trade at the 1,210.00 level during the trading session.

NZD/CHF 4H Chart: Targets Swing High At 0.6520

The New Zealand Dollar against the Swiss Franc has been moving in an ascending channel since the beginning of September. The currency pair bounced off its lower boundary of the channel on September 7 and followed by an upside wave.

The exchange rate opens above the monthly pivot point at 0.6444 during Friday's trading session. Therefore, bullish momentum could dominate this currency pair within today's session.

If a support cluster formed by the combination of the weekly and the monthly PPs near the 0.6434 level holds, the NZD/CHF could target a swing high at 0.6520 during the following trading sessions.

NZD/CAD 4H Chart: Tests 100-Hour SMA

The NZD/CAD currency pair has been trading in a descending channel for the past few months now. This steady decrease in price range began when the rate reversed from the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel at 0.91 on June 22.

As shown on the 4(H) chart, the exchange rate has tested a resistance level formed by the 100-hour simple moving average at 0.8503 during the first part of today's session.

If that resistance level holds, the currency exchange rate could aim at a support cluster set by the weekly and the monthly PPs near the 0.8469 within this trading session.

On the other hand, if the price passes that resistance line as mentioned earlier, the pair could move towards the 200-hour SMA at 0.8556.

UK Hammond on Brexit negotiation: Positive process, challenging substance

Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said that there are still big issues to resolve in Brexit negotiation. He said "what has happened over the last week, ten days, is that there has been a measurable change in pace." However, "that shouldn't conceal the fact that we still have some big differences left to resolve. So process is a lot more positive this week - substance still very challenging."

Separately, it's reported that Prime Minister Theresa May is going to make a public statement saying UK "will not agree to be trapped permanently in a customs union in any circumstances".

Argentine Dujovne: Trade tensions faced among G20 members

Argentine Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne, chairm of this year's G20 finance leaders' meeting, said in urged the countries involved to solve trade tensions, in a the summit in Indonesia. He said, "we recognize we are now facing trade tensions among members of the G20", without directly naming the US or China.

And he added that "the G20 can play a role in providing the platform for discussions. But the differences that still persist should be resolved by the members that are directly involved in the tensions."

Dujovne also added "we agree that international trade is an important engine of growth, and that we need to resolve tensions which can negatively affect market sentiment and increase financial volatility".

Separealy, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that "I expressed my concern about the weakness in the (yuan) currency and that as part of any trade discussions, currency has to be part of the discussion."

GBPJPY Retains Sideways Channel, Lacks Direction In Very Short-Term

GBPJPY has been consolidating since September 24 and has been stuck in a channel with upper boundary the 149.50 resistance and lower boundary the 147.20 support. The pair lacks a clear trend in the short-term. However, it climbed above the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs), pointing to upside risks, and this is reinforced by the technical indicators. The RSI is ticking higher in the positive territory, while the MACD is moving sideways above the zero line.

If the price continues the slightly upside movement, it could touch the 149.50 – 149.70 resistance area taken from the highs on October 8 and September 21. A run above this region would open the way towards the 150.00 strong psychological level, achieved on May 18, shifting the neutral bias to positive.

Alternatively, should the price manage to head lower, it could hit again the lower boundary of 147.20 and the 146.95 support, breaking the trading range to the downside. In case of more losses the market could touch the 146.20 barrier, taken from the low on September 14.

Looking at the very short-term picture, the bias remains neutral since prices hold within a range, however, over the last two months GBPJPY posted higher highs and higher lows.

AUDUSD Outlook: Break Above 0.7146 Fibo Barrier Needed To Signal Reversal

The Aussie is consolidating in early Friday's trading, following previous day's strong rally when Australian dollar advanced 1%, as the greenback fell further after weaker than expected US CPI data.

Fresh bullish acceleration retested highs of recent congestion (0.7130) but was so far unable to break higher.

Fresh bulls were impacted by positive data from China (Sep trade surplus with the US hit the record high), but positive outlook exists.

Multiple downside rejection formed a base at 0.7042, with subsequent bullish acceleration which broke above falling 10SMA (currently at 0.7110) are supportive factors, along with strengthening momentum and north-heading slow stochastic on daily chart.

Bullish scenario requires extension and close above 0.7146 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7314/0.7042) for confirmation reversal and bullish signal for recovery extension.

Res: 0.7130, 0.7146, 0.7178, 0.7210
Sup: 0.7110, 0.7085, 0.7042, 0.7000

USDJPY Outlook: Bears Found Footstep But Recovery Attempts Were So Far Limited

The pair moved higher in early Friday's trading and holding in green for the first time after six-day steep fall.

Bears found footstep at 111.97 Fibo support (61.8% of 110.38/114.54) which was cracked on Thursday but without clear break lower.

This was an initial signal that bears might be running out of steam and could enter consolidative/corrective action.

Oversold daily slow stochastic is turning up and formed bull-cross, adding to positive signals. Recovery attempts were so far limited by sideways-moving daily Kijun-sen (112.46), with break higher and weekly close above it, to generate bullish signal and form reversal pattern on daily chart.

Failure to clear Kijun-sen barrier would signal extended consolidation and keep the downside vulnerable, while break below 111.97 pivot would signal continuation of last week's steep downtrend.

Completion of Doji reversal pattern on weekly chart, following last week's strong fall which is on track to end week in long bearish candle, adds to negative signals and suggests that corrective upticks would be positioning ahead of fresh weakness.

Res: 112.46, 112.82, 112.97, 113.25
Sup: 111.97, 111.81, 111.36, 111.27

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.92; (P) 148.35; (R1) 148.89; More...

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook as consolidation from 149.70 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But outlook will stay remain bullish as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone next. However, break of 145.67 will suggest that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.