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Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.52; (P) 149.20; (R1) 149.78; More....

Further decline is expected in USD/JPY with 150.92 support turned resistance intact. Current fall from 158.86 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 161.94 high. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 next. On the upside, however, break of 150.92 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8920; (P) 0.8943; (R1) 0.8969; More…

USD/CHF recovered notably but stays below 0.9053 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. The corrective pattern from 0.9200 could still extend lower. But strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 to complete it, and bring larger rise resumption. On the upside, above 0.9053 will bring retest of 0.9200 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.8884 will indicate bearish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8690 instead.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.

Dollar traded broadly higher in Asian session, trying to stage a comeback after a failed rally attempt overnight. Renewed focus on tariffs appears to be driving some of the greenback’s momentum. Meanwhile, broader market sentiment is just steady following Nvidia’s strong earnings report, with lingering concerns over competition from China’s DeepSeek AI continue to weigh.

Tariffs are back in headlines after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick revealed that the “big transaction” involving reciprocal tariffs is set for April 2. The date was pushed from April 1, as US President Donald Trump—citing superstition—chose to avoid making major policy moves on that day.

Lutnick also noted that Canada and Mexico could avoid the planned 25% tariffs if they can demonstrate sufficient progress on border security and fentanyl control. However, he added that Trump would ultimately decide whether to pause again or proceed with the tariffs.

Despite Nvidia reporting an impressive 78% year-over-year sales increase and a 93% jump in data center revenue, its struggle to rebound with momentum. The company has yet to fully recover from its 17% drop on January 27—its worst single-day decline since 2020—amid growing concerns about China’s emerging AI competitor, DeepSeek.

Elsewhere, Aussie is struggling despite comments from a top RBA official suggesting that rate cuts are not on auto-pilot and that further easing would require more disinflation evidence. This cautious stance should have provided some support for the Aussie, but broader risk-off sentiment is keeping the currency under pressure.

For now, Aussie is sitting at the bottom of today's performance chart. Kiwi is also underperforming, while Swiss Franc is the third worst performer of the day so far. At the top of the performance table, Dollar leads, followed by Yen and Loonie. Euro and British Pound are positioning in the middle.

Technically, AUD/JPY's fall from 102.39 resumed this week and further fall should now be seen to 100% projection of 102.39 to 95.50 from 98.75 at 91.86. As this decline is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 90.10, strong support should be seen around there to bring reversal. But risk will continue to stays on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 96.74) holds, in case of recovery.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.14%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.76%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.49%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.13%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.036 at 1.402. Overnight, DOW fell -0.43%. S&P 500 rose 0.01%. NASDAQ rose 0.26%. 10-year yield fell -0.049 to 4.249.

RBA’s Hauser: Global uncertainty justifies rate cut, but more easing depends on disnflation evidence

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told the parliament today that mounting global uncertainty had a chilling effect on economic activity, which played a role in the board’s decision to cut the cash rate by 25 bps this month.

He noted that businesses are becoming increasingly cautious, delaying investment projects and expansion plans as they wait for clearer economic signals, "just to see how things pan out."

This hesitation, he suggested, made a slight easing of monetary policy a "sensible" response to support economic stability.

However, Hauser emphasized that further rate cuts are not guaranteed and will depend on incoming inflation data. Policymakers remain optimistic about further disinflation but need to see clear evidence before committing to additional policy easing.

NZ ANZ business confidence rises to 58.4, on the path to recovery

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence rose from 54.4 to 58.4 in February. However, the Own Activity Outlook, slipped slightly from 45.8 to 45.1, highlighting that while sentiment is improving, actual activity remains uncertain.

Pricing and cost indicators painted a mixed picture. Inflation expectations for the next year eased from 2.67% to 2.53% and cost expectations fell from 73.6 to 71.3. But wage expectations remained elevated at 79.2 despite fall from 83.1, and pricing intentions ticked up from 45.7 to 46.2.

ANZ noted that the economy is on the "path to recovery," supported by lower interest rates and stronger-than-expected commodity export prices. However, the bank cautioned that the next phase of growth remains "a point of debate."

The pace of expansion will depend on how households perceive current interest rates, the extent to which global uncertainty influences business investment, and whether firms push forward despite challenges. Additionally, potential labor shortages could emerge as a key constraint on further growth.

BoE’s Dhingra: Orderly trade fragmentation unlikely to require monetary policy response

BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra suggested that the inflationary impact of rising global tariffs could be tempered by weaker economic growth.

She added that if the global economy undergoes a "fragmentation in an orderly way," monetary policy might not need to react immediately as prices readjust to new geopolitical shifts.

However, she cautioned that in an "extreme scenario" where multiple major economies erect significant trade barriers similar to those proposed by the US, "severe strain on a few sources of supply" could lead to sharp price spikes, reminiscent of those seen following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Despite the risks, Dhingra downplayed the likelihood of a severe disruption, noting that "the world economy seems to be moving closer to an orderly fragmentation."

Looking ahead

Swiss GDP, Eurozone M3 monthly supply will be released in European session. ECB will publish meeting accounts.

Later in the day, US will release GDP revision, durable goods orders and pending home sales.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8920; (P) 0.8943; (R1) 0.8969; More…

USD/CHF recovered notably but stays below 0.9053 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. The corrective pattern from 0.9200 could still extend lower. But strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 to complete it, and bring larger rise resumption. On the upside, above 0.9053 will bring retest of 0.9200 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.8884 will indicate bearish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8690 instead.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told the parliament today that mounting global uncertainty had a chilling effect on economic activity, which played a role in the board’s decision to cut the cash rate by 25 bps this month.

He noted that businesses are becoming increasingly cautious, delaying investment projects and expansion plans as they wait for clearer economic signals, "just to see how things pan out."

This hesitation, he suggested, made a slight easing of monetary policy a "sensible" response to support economic stability.

However, Hauser emphasized that further rate cuts are not guaranteed and will depend on incoming inflation data. Policymakers remain optimistic about further disinflation but need to see clear evidence before committing to additional policy easing.

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD remained in a bullish zone above the 1.2600 support.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.2550 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD could gain pace if it clears the 1.0535 resistance.
• The US GDP could grow by 2.3% in Q4 2025 (Preliminary).

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a decent increase above 1.2550 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD even cleared the 1.2620 resistance before it started a consolidation phase.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above the 1.2600 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There was a minor pullback from the 1.2690 high, but the pair remained supported.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.2620 level. The next key support sits near the 1.2600 level. The first major support is near the 1.2550 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2550 on the same chart. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.2465 level.

On the upside, the pair seems to be facing hurdles near the 1.2690 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2720 level. The main resistance is now forming near the 1.2750 zone. A close above the 1.2750 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 1.2800 resistance.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair remained stable above 1.0450 and might aim for more gains above the 1.0535 resistance.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• US Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2025 (Preliminary) – Forecast 2.3% versus previous 2.3%.
• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 221K, versus 219K previous.
• US Durable Goods Orders for Jan 2025 – Forecast +2% versus -2.2% previous.

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence rose from 54.4 to 58.4 in February. However, the Own Activity Outlook, slipped slightly from 45.8 to 45.1, highlighting that while sentiment is improving, actual activity remains uncertain.

Pricing and cost indicators painted a mixed picture. Inflation expectations for the next year eased from 2.67% to 2.53% and cost expectations fell from 73.6 to 71.3. But wage expectations remained elevated at 79.2 despite fall from 83.1, and pricing intentions ticked up from 45.7 to 46.2.

ANZ noted that the economy is on the "path to recovery," supported by lower interest rates and stronger-than-expected commodity export prices. However, the bank cautioned that the next phase of growth remains "a point of debate."

The pace of expansion will depend on how households perceive current interest rates, the extent to which global uncertainty influences business investment, and whether firms push forward despite challenges. Additionally, potential labor shortages could emerge as a key constraint on further growth.

Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra suggested that the inflationary impact of rising global tariffs could be tempered by weaker economic growth.

She added that if the global economy undergoes a "fragmentation in an orderly way," monetary policy might not need to react immediately as prices readjust to new geopolitical shifts.

However, she cautioned that in an "extreme scenario" where multiple major economies erect significant trade barriers similar to those proposed by the US, "severe strain on a few sources of supply" could lead to sharp price spikes, reminiscent of those seen following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Despite the risks, Dhingra downplayed the likelihood of a severe disruption, noting that "the world economy seems to be moving closer to an orderly fragmentation."

Business confidence remains high, with only minor changes compared to last month.

Key results, February 2025

• Business confidence: 58.4 (Prev: 54.4)
• Expectations for own trading activity: 45.1 (Prev: 45.8)
• Activity vs same month one year ago: -2.9 (Prev: 0.2)
• Inflation expectations: 2.53% (Prev: 2.67%)
• Pricing intentions: 46.2 (Prev: 45.7)

The February ANZ business outlook survey had something for everyone, with rises and falls across a range of indicators. All of the movements were relatively small, though – the general message remains that current conditions are tough but firms are hopeful about the year ahead.

General sentiment about the economy rose from 54.4 to 58.4. This measure had drifted lower in the previous three months, though it has remained at around its highest levels in more than a decade. Firms’ expectations about their own performance dipped slightly for the month, but also remain historically high. Hiring and investment expectations were up for the month.

In terms of their current performance, a net 3% of firms said that they were down on the same time a year ago. However, there are marked differences across industries. The most negative responses were from retailing (pulling back after a more upbeat Christmas / New Year period) and construction. In contrast, the agricultural sector is faring much better than a year ago, no doubt buoyed by rising export prices and an easing in input cost inflation.

The pricing gauges of the survey were mixed. Expected inflation for the year ahead fell to 2.5%, the lowest since June 2021. However, firms’ own pricing intentions continued to tick higher. Expectations for cost increases were down slightly in February, but this measure has been running higher in the last few months.

Overall, businesses remain hopeful that lower interest rates will help to revive the economy in the year ahead. We generally share that view, though we’re forecasting a return to moderate rather than above-trend growth over 2025.

• NZDJPY broke key support level 85.00
• Likely to fall support level 84.00

NZDJPY currency pair recently broke the key support level 85.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the start of February).

The breakout of the support level 85.00 accelerated the minor impulse wave iii of the C-wave which belongs to the extended ABC correction (2) from November.

Given the strong daily downtrend, NZDJPY currency pair can be expected to extend the losses toward the next support level 84.00, the target price for the completion of the active C-wave.

• AUDJPY broke support level 94.35
• Likely to fall support level 93.45

AUDJPY currency pair recently broke the support level 94.35 (the low of the previous minor impulse wave i from the start of February).

The breakout of the support level 94.35 accelerated the active short-term impulse wave iii, which belongs to the longer-term impulse waves 3 and (3).

Given the predominantly bullish yen sentiment seen today, AUDJPY currency pair be expected to fall to the next support level 93.45, the former monthly low from September.