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Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said overnight that it's "too soon" to determine the future path of US interest rates. While he acknowledged that tariffs alone may not necessarily reignite persistent inflation, he emphasized that Fed cannot dismiss the risk, especially given the still-elevated price levels in recent months.

At the same time, Kashkari noted that tariffs are likely to weigh on growth, creating a policy dilemma: Fed cannot simultaneously counter rising inflation and rising unemployment without making difficult trade-offs.

Kashkari highlighted that the growing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is compounding the challenge. While resolution could come quickly if negotiations succeed, the current lack of clarity is already deterring both consumer and business activity.

Adding to the complexity, Kashkari pointed to additional pressure from a weakening dollar and rising Treasury yields, as global investors begin to question the attractiveness of US assets.

“If we're no longer the economy that investors around the world say, hey, this is the preeminent competitive economy,” he cautioned, “then we probably have less runway.”

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin price started a steady increase above the $90,000 resistance.
• BTC cleared a key contracting triangle with resistance at $85,300 on the 4-hour chart.
• Ethereum price rallied over 10% and must clear the $1,800 resistance to continue higher.
• Gold surged to set a record high at $3,500 before it corrected some gains.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $80,000 zone against the US Dollar. BTC was able to surpass the $82,000 and $85,000 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price settled above the $90,000 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). It cleared a key contracting triangle with resistance at $85,300.

The bulls even pumped BTC above the $92,000 resistance zone. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $94,200 level.

The next key resistance is $94,500. The main resistance could be $95,000. A successful close above $95,000 might start another steady increase. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise toward the $98,000 level. Any more gains might call for a test of $100,000.

Immediate support is near the $91,500 level. The next key support sits at $90,000. A downside break below $90,000 might send Bitcoin toward the $88,000 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $86,200 support zone.

Looking at Ethereum, there was a recovery wave, but ETH must settle above the $1,800 resistance zone to move into a short-term bullish zone.

Today’s Economic Releases

• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 (Preliminary) – Forecast 47.5, versus 48.6 previous.
• Euro Zone Services PMI for April 2025 (Preliminary) – Forecast 50.5, versus 51.0 previous.
• US Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 (Preliminary) – Forecast 49.4, versus 50.2 previous.
• US Services PMI for April 2025 (Preliminary) – Forecast 52.8, versus 54.4 previous.

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article, we are going to present another Elliott Wave charts of Ethereum ETHUSD. The crypto ended cycle from the 2104.3 peak and now correcting it. In the following sections, we will delve into the specifics of the Elliott Wave pattern.

ETHUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.18.2025

The current analysis suggests that ETHUSD is forming a wave 2 red recovery. The correction is incomplete at the moment, we expect another leg up. As far as the price stays above 1537.8 low toward 1775 -1847 area .

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ETHUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.22.2025

The crypto held above the 1537.8 low and continued to rally, as expected. The price is ideally heading toward our first target area at 1775. We do not recommend selling the crypto at this time. However, keep in mind that the cycle from the December 2024 peak still appears incomplete. Therefore, as long as the 2105 pivot holds, further downside could follow once the current correction is complete.

Bitcoin: ⬆️ Buy

• Bitcoin broke round resistance level 90000.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 95000.00

Bitcoin cryptocurrency today broke the resistance area between the round resistance level 90000.00 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward wave (A) from January.

The breakout of this resistance area should accelerate the C-wave of the active ABC correction (B) from March.

Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to rise in the active C-wave to the next resistance level 95000.00 (former strong resistance from the start of March).

AUDUSD: ⬇️ Sell

• AUDUSD reversed from the key resistance level 0.6400
• Likely to fall to support level 0.6300

AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed from the resistance area between the key resistance level 0.6400 (former major support from 2024) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from September.

The downward reversal from this resistance area is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.

Given the overbought daily Stochastic and the strength of the key resistance level 0.6400, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.6300.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF has sharply revised down its global growth projections due to dramatic escalation in trade barriers and persistent policy uncertainty.

Global GDP is now expected to grow just 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, down from 3.3% for both years in the January update, marking a cumulative 0.8 percentage point downgrade. The new projections fall well below the 3.7% historical average (2000–2019), reflecting the disruptive impact of US-led tariff hikes, which have pushed effective global trade barriers to levels not seen in a century.

The IMF's “reference forecast” above incorporates all developments up to April 4, including the sweeping US tariff increase announced on April 2 and the initial retaliatory responses.

It also evaluates the scenario under more recent announcements, where the US paused most tariffs temporarily but maintained prohibitive duties on China. The report finds that this partial reprieve does not materially alter the global outlook, as overall trade restrictions between the US and China remain significantly elevated and policy-induced uncertainty continues to suppress investment and confidence.

For contrast, the IMF also presents an alternative forecast that excludes the April 2 tariff hikes. Under this more benign scenario, global growth for 2025 and 2026 would have seen only a modest 0.2 percentage point downgrade to 3.2%, highlighting the substantial damage inflicted by recent trade policy actions.

Full IMF WEO release here.

Speaking on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, ECB President Christine Lagarde called for constructive negotiations to resolve rising US-EU trade tensions.

Addressing the recent escalation of tariff threats by US President Donald Trump, Lagarde expressed optimism that there remains room for dialogue.

“It’s in the nature of policymakers to want to sit down and argue their case,” she said, adding that identifying "red lines" and "vulnerabilities" on both sides would be essential to any successful outcome.

Lagarde pushed back against Trump’s claims that the EU treats the United States unfairly in trade, particularly due to the EU’s goods surplus. She emphasized that the transatlantic economic relationship is far more comprehensive, extending beyond goods to include services and substantial foreign direct investment flows. The broader context, she implied, should not be lost in the current tariff rhetoric.

While acknowledging that certain sectors may require tough discussions, Lagarde stressed the importance of shared economic interests. “There is so much joint interest,” she noted, emphasizing the need for “tedious, serious work” to find acceptable compromises.

Markets

While European markets were closed for the Easter weekend on Friday and yesterday, US investors had to cope with an additional layer of uncertainty as the Trump administration is putting pressure on the Fed to cut rates more and sooner than they currently (communicate) are considering. Even Fed independence is again becoming a genuine source of debate. Yesterday this triggered an additional leg in the ‘sell US trade’, with US equities, the dollar and LT US Treasuries all facing strong headwinds. However, some calm returned today, or at least the pressure didn’t intensify. Probably awaiting other social media comments from the US president. In technical trading, US yields currently are changing between + 2 bps (2-y) and -4 bps (30-y). We don’t draw any firm conclusions from today’s price action yet. Even so, both at the short end of the curve (almost 3.5% Fed fund rate eoy) and at the long end of the curve (US 30-y 4.90%) quite some good/bad news should already be discounted by now, unless you take into account an extreme scenario. Whatever the consideration, markets didn’t feel the need to push further after yesterday’s US sell-off. US equities are rebounding about 1% at the open. The EuroStoxx 50 also shows some resilience (-0.25%) given yesterday’s WS sell-off. US equity investors for several reasons will take a close look at the Tesla results to be announced after the close of cash trading in the US later today. At the reopening of European markets post-Easter, a mild safe haven bid still supports German Bunds with yields declining between 1.5 bps (2-y) and 3.2 bps (30-y). Even if you assume some deflationary impact from the global context on Europe (negative demand shock, stronger euro, lower energy prices…), European money market have gone (very) far in anticipating the ECB ability/necessity to support growth later this year/early next year (low of the ECB cycle potentially near 1.5%). The pause in the ‘sell US trade’ for now also prevents further USD losses. DXY is gaining modestly to 98.55, but still holds below the key previous support area of 98.97 (62% retracement)/99.57. EUR/USD corrects off the 1.15+ area (currently 1.1463). At USD/JPY 140.6, the yen again outperforms (especially the against the euro). Comments from people familiar with the internal debate with the Bank of Japan this morning indicated that the BoJ currently isn’t at a point yet to profoundly change its stance of gradually raising rates further. A relative mild risk sentiment also gave some relief for sterling. EUR/GBP eased from the 0.86 area to currently trade near 0.8575. Headlines from (hawkish) BoE member Greene, did catch the eye as she assessed that US tariffs represent more of a disinflationary than an inflationary risk, suggesting more room for the BoE to take a more growth supportive stance.

News & View

The ECB published its Q2 Survey of Professional Forecasters. Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation were 2.2% for 2025 (from 2.1%) and 2% for 2026 (from 1.9%) and 2027 (from 2%).Core inflation expectations were also 0.1 ppt higher at 2.3%-2.1%-2.1% for the 2025-2027 period and for the longer term (2% from 1.9%). Respondents expected real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025 (from 1% in the Q1 survey), 1.2% in 2026 (from 1.3%) and 1.4% in 2027 (from 1.3%). The expected trajectory of the unemployment rate was revised slightly downwards. The unemployment rate is expected to average 6.3% from 2025 to 2027, and then to fall to 6.2% in the longer term. The Q2 SPF was conducted between 1 and 4 April 2025, when US President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs.

The IMF updated its World Economic Outlook. Major policy shifts are resetting the global trade system and giving rise to uncertainty that is once again testing the resilience of the global economy. These developments come against an already-cooling economic momentum. The IMF warns for diminished policy space to support economies in case of new negative shocks or a pronounced downturn. Fiscal space is much tighter after stimulus in the wake of the pandemic and the energy crisis with rising debt services costs hindering the already historic fiscal adjustment necessary to stabilize debt ratios. There is also little leeway for central banks to look through new negative supply shocks with inflation expectations exceeding central bank targets in most advanced economies. To try to captures the huge amount of uncertainty, the WEO today released three different scenarios. The reference forecast is based on measures announced as of April 4 (peak tariffs) and projects growth to fall from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8% (from 3.8% in January update) this year before recovering to 3% in 2026 (from 3.3%). For the US, the IMF plots 1.8% for this year and 1.7% for next. For EMU it’s 0.8% and 1.2%.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Tuesday ahead of the US open.

A welcome development after all three main stock indexes fell over 2% on Monday when Trump increased his criticism of Fed Chair Powell for not cutting interest rates, raising worries about the central bank's independence and future monetary policy.

Investors seem to be pouring out of US assets with safe havens like Gold benefiting. It appears market participants are now starting to price in political risk for US assets, and this appears to be on the rise.

Looking to the US session and attention will shift temporarily to US corporate earnings. A wave of earnings reports today will offer more clues on how companies are dealing with tariff-related uncertainty and potential impacts on future profits.

Earlier in the day, Verizon dropped 3.6% after losing more subscribers than expected last quarter. Northrop Grumman fell 8.7% following weak quarterly results as well. Tesla, which is set to start earnings for the "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks after the market closes, gained 0.8% in premarket trading. Some other companies reporting today are shown on the calendar below.

For a technical view of the Dow Jones read: Dow Jones (DJIA) Technical Outlook: Value stocks do not provide a safe haven refuge

Gold prices remain some way off their Asian session highs and are hovering around the $3445/oz handle at the time of writing. I suspect the drop is largely down to profit taking as the overall narrative remains the same. For more read: Gold ETFs and retail investor activity: What's driving the XAU/USD surge?

According to people familiar with the matter, BoJ officials see little need to change their present stance of gradually lifting interest rates for now, despite uncertainties stemming from US tariffs.

Economic data releases

For now focus will shift to earnings with a host of Fed Policymakers scheduled to speak later. It will be interesting to see whether they weigh in on the Trump-Powell situation and how they see Fed policy developing in upcoming meetings

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the day - US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has staged a mini recovery so far today, whether this will prove sustainable remains to be seen.

If the bounce continues, immediate resistance rests at 99.00 before the 99.20 and 99.57 may be areas to focus on.

Immediate support rests at 98.00 before the 97.70 handle comes into focus.

Given the RSI is about to break above the 30 handle this could be the confidence boost that bulls need for a sustained recovery, however this needs to materialize first. So keep a close watch.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, April 22, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)