Sample Category Title

• EURUSD continues the sell-off
• Immediate support at medium-term uptrend line
• Stochastic edges lower in oversold area

EURUSD is experiencing more losses a few hours ahead of the ECB interest rate decision, sending the market beneath the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 1.0870 resistance.

Technically, the stochastic oscillator is extending its negative momentum in the oversold zone creating a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines. Moreover, the RSI is moving horizontally near the 30 level.

As the price has lost more than 3% since the pullback from the 1.1200 round number, it may then challenge the medium-term uptrend line near 1.0810. Slightly below that, the long-term ascending trend line at 1.0775 may act as a turning point in the market. A lower move could switch the outlook to bearish.

On the other hand, a rise above the 200-day SMA could add some optimism for bullish movement, hitting the 1.0950 and the 1.1000 key levels.

All in all, EURUSD has been in a selling interest over the last three weeks and only a rally above the 1.1200-1.1215 restrictive region would change the current short-term outlook.

Short Term Elliott Wave View in spot Silver (XAGUSD) suggests that rally from 8.8.2024 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 8.8.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 30.18 and dips in wave 2 ended at 27.69. Wave 3 higher ended at 32.71 and pullback in wave 4 ended at 30.13 with internal subdivision as an expanded Flat structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 30.86 and wave ((b)) rally ended at 32.95. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 30.1 and this completed wave 4 in higher degree.

The metal has turned higher again in wave 5 with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 30.76 and wave (ii) ended at 30.2. Wave (iii) higher ended at 31.3 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 31.04. Final leg wave (v) ended at 31.62 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 30.70. Wave ((iii)) is in progress higher and as far as pivot at 30.1 low stays intact, expect short term dips to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

Silver (XAGUSD) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

XAGUSD Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EipqY2OwPKY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.63; (P) 194.47; (R1) 195.24; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 195.95 will resume whole rise from 180.00 to 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35 next. Sustained break there will target 208.09 high. On the downside, below 192.87 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 189.54 support. Further break there will target 183.70 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.14; (P) 162.51; (R1) 162.91; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 163.86 resistance will resume the rebound from 154.40 to 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38. On the downside, break of 161.00 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Further break of 158.09 will target 154.40/155.14 support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8333; (P) 0.8356; (R1) 0.8386; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment as range trading continues. Further decline is still in favor. On the downside, firm break of 0.8309 will resume larger down trend to 0.8201 key support next. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8624 to 0.8309 at 0.8429 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.8504 and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Next target is 0.8201 (2022 low), but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. However, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8624 resistance holds even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6239; (P) 1.6284; (R1) 1.6338; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.6185 will bring deeper fall to retest 1.6002 low. On the upside, however, above 1.6351 will resume the rebound from 1.6002 to 38.2% of 1.7180 to 1.6002 at 1.6452.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.5996 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9382; (P) 0.9397; (R1) 0.9416; More....

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook as it's still bounded in converging range. On the upside, break of 0.9506 resistance should resume whole rebound from 0.9209 through 0.9579 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.9332 will resume the fall from 0.9579 towards 0.9209 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0843; (P) 1.0872; (R1) 1.0891; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside as fall from 1.1213 is in progress. This decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740 next. On the upside, above 1.0915 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.1274 resistance suggests that corrective pattern from 1.1274 (2023 high) is not completed yet. Instead, decline from 1.1213 might be another falling leg. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0877) will validate this case, and bring deeper fall towards 1.0447 support again. But downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2950; (P) 1.3018; (R1) 1.3060; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside at this point. Sustained trading below 1.3000 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2999) will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2732. Nevertheless, strong bounce from current level, followed by break of 1.3102 minor resistance, will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound towards 1.3433.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3000 support holds, the up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3141 from 1.2298 at 1.4022. However, considering mild bearish divergence condition in D MACD, decisive break of 1.3000 will argue that a medium term top is already in place, and bring deeper fall back to 1.2664 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8625; (P) 0.8641; (R1) 0.8672; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside as rise from 0.8374 is in progress. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8698 will argue that fall from 0.9223 has completed after defending 0.8332 low. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8899 next. On the downside, below 0.8605 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).