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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.10; (P) 161.51; (R1) 162.28; More....

EUR/JPY falls sharply after edging higher to 163.47 but stays above 159.03 support. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 163.47/86 will extend the corrective pattern from 154.40 to 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38. However, firm break of 159.03 will argue that this corrective pattern has already completed, and bring deeper fall back to 154.40/155.14 support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8318; (P) 0.8340; (R1) 0.8352; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral and more consolidation could be seen above 0.8316 temporary low. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8399 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, below 0.8316 will resume the fall from 0.8624 to 100% projection of 0.8624 to 0.8399 from 0.8463 at 0.8237 next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is resuming. Next target is 0.8201 (2022 low), but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8624 resistance holds even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6155; (P) 1.6238; (R1) 1.6293; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is back on the downside with breach of 1.6184 temporary low. Fall from 1.7180 is resuming for 61.8% projection of 1.7180 to 1.6256 from 1.6629 at 1.6058, which is close to 1.5996 key support level. On the upside, above 1.6319 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral gain. But outlook will continue to say bearish as long as 1.6629 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected fall from 1.7180. Yet as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.7180 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9430; (P) 0.9465; (R1) 0.9491; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in sideway consolidation and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 0.9506 will resume the rally from 0.9305, as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9209, to 0.9579 resistance. However, break of 0.9305 will resume the decline from 0.9579 towards 0.9209 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1138; (P) 1.1164; (R1) 1.1201; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations continues below 1.1213. Further rally is expected as long as 1.1001 support holds. Above 1.1213 will extend larger rally from 1.0665 to 100% projection of 1.0776 to 1.1200 from 1.1001 at 1.1425.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1274 should have completed at 1.0665 already. Decisive break of 1.1274 (2023 high) will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0665 at 1.1740. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.1001 support holds.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3335; (P) 1.3384; (R1) 1.3465; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral and some more consolidations could be seen. 1.3429 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3265 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.3429 will extend larger rally to 100% projection of 1.2664 to 1.3265 from 1.3000 at 1.3601 next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3265 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3141 from 1.2298 at 1.4022. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3000 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8438; (P) 0.8477; (R1) 0.8501; More

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the downside, break of 0.8374 will resume the fall from 0.9223 to retest 0.8332 low. Decisive break there will indicate larger down trend resumption. However, break of 0.8548 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8747 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.21; (P) 144.71; (R1) 145.31; More...

USD/JPY reversed after edging higher to 146.68 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rise would remain in favor as long as 142.89 minor support holds. Above 146.48 will extend the rebound from 139.57 to 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 148.11. On the downside, below 142.89 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 139.57 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to contain downside, at least on first attempt. But in any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 149.35 resistance holds. Sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Yen surges as Ishiba wins LDP leadership, set to become Japan’s new prime minister

Japanese Yen surges sharply higher just following the election of former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party , positioning him as Japan’s next Prime Minister. Ishiba’s victory came after a closely contested leadership race, where he edged out hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi in a run-off vote.

Ishiba, an intellectual heavyweight within the LDP and a national security expert, has been a vocal proponent of a more assertive Japan, advocating for reduced reliance on the US for defense. Notably, during his leadership campaign, Ishiba proposed the creation of an "Asian NATO," a concept that was swiftly dismissed by Washington as premature.

Ishiba’s stance on national security and defense policy is expected to shape Japan's geopolitical strategy in the years ahead. His election marks a significant shift in Japan's political landscape, as markets now react to the potential changes in foreign policy and defense initiatives under his leadership.

 

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3449; (P) 1.3474; (R1) 1.3491; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment, and some more consolidations could be seen above 1.3418. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3646 resistance holds. ON the downside, break of 1.3418 will resume the decline from 1.3946 to 61.8% projection of 1.3946 to 1.3439 from 1.3646 at 1.3333.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) is extending with another falling leg. While deeper decline could be seen, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage.