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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9091; (P) 0.9120; (R1) 0.9153; More....

Range trading continues in USD/CHF below 0.9157 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor with 0.9077 minor support intact. On the upside, above 0.9157 will bring retest of 0.9223. However, on the downside, break of 0.9077 will suggest that rebound from 0.8987 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.8987 support. Further break there will resume the fall from 0.9223 to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 will strengthen this case, and maintain medium term bearishness. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146.

Risk aversion is the prevailing theme in the global markets today, with major European indexes trading in the red and US futures pointing to a lower open. Australian Dollar reversed its earlier post-CPI gains and is currently the worst performer of the day, followed by New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar. In contrast, Swiss Franc is the strongest, followed by Euro and the US Dollar, while Japanese Yen and British Pound are positioned in the middle.

Technically, USD/CAD failed to sustain below 55 D EMA again, and recovered ahead of 1.3589 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3176 to 1.3845). Near term bullishness is maintained thus far. Break of 1.3742 resistance will argue that corrective pullback from 1.3845 has completed already, and larger rise from 1.3176 is ready to resume. Let's see if Friday's US PCE inflation data could trigger the move.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.50%. DAX is down -1.05%. CAC is down -1.42%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.072 at 4.353. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.045 at 2.641. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.77%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.83%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.05%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.21%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0403 to 1.080.

German Gfk consumer sentiment jumps to -20.9, falling inflation and wages increase

Germany's GfK Consumer Sentiment index for June improved significantly, rising from -24.0 to -20.9 and surpassing expectations of -22.5. This marks the fourth consecutive month of improved sentiment.

In May, economic expectations jumped from 0.7 to 9.8, while income expectations rose from 10.7 to 12.5, the highest level since January 2022. Willingness to buy edged up slightly from -12.6 to -12.3, and willingness to save dropped sharply from 14.9 to 5.0, the lowest value since August 2023.

Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at NIM, explained that "falling inflation rates combined with considerable wage and salary increases strengthen consumer purchasing power. This stimulates income expectations and also reduces consumer uncertainty, which was responsible for the comparatively high willingness to save in previous months."

Despite these positive trends, Bürkl noted that uncertainty still lingers among German consumers. This is attributed to the lack of clear future prospects in the country, which undermines planning certainty for significant purchases. "People will have to regain this certainty before they are willing to invest their growing purchasing power in larger purchases," he added.

BoJ's Adachi: Yen depreciation could prompt earlier rate hike

BoJ board member Seiji Adachi has signaled that the central bank could raise interest rate earlier if depreciation of Yen accelerates or persists.

In his speech today, Adachi emphasized the need to avoid premature rate increases. However, he also warned that an excessive focus on downside risks could lead to an inflation spike, necessitating sharp monetary tightening later on.

Adachi highlighted the importance to "gradually adjust" monetary support based on economic, price, and financial developments, as long as underlying inflation trends toward 2% target.

He projected that consumer inflation will re-accelerate from summer through autumn due to rising import costs and sustained wage gains. However, if Yen's decline accelerates or persists, "consumer inflation could rebound sooner than expected".

"If this happens at a time when there is a higher chance of inflation durably and stably exceeding 2%, we may need to push forward the timing of an interest rate hike," Adachi noted.

Australia's April CPI rises to 3.6%, driven by housing and food costs

Australia monthly CPI rose form 3.5% yoy to 3.6% yoy in April, exceeding the expectation of 3.4%. This marks the second consecutive month of rising inflation. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel remained steady at 4.1% yoy, while the trimmed mean CPI also edged up from 4.0% yoy to 4.1% yoy.

Significant price increases were observed in several categories: Housing saw a 4.9% rise, Food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 3.8%, Alcohol and tobacco prices surged by 6.5%, and Transport costs went up by 4.2%.

Australia's Westpac Leading Index rises to -0.01%, some signs of stabilization

Australia Westpac Leading Index improved slightly in April, rising from -0.08% to -0.01%. Westpac noted that the index is once again indicating some stabilization in growth momentum. However, the improvement in growth is expected to be modest.

Westpac forecasts GDP to grow at an annual pace of 1.9% in the second half of the year, up from 1.3% in the first half. Despite this uptick, the growth rate remains below Australia's trend, which is estimated to be around 2.5% per year with some moderation in population growth.

New Zealand ANZ business confidence falls to 11.2, inflation pressures ease

New Zealand's ANZ Business Confidence index dropped from 14.9 to 11.2 in May, signaling a decline in business sentiment. Outlook for own activity also decreased from 14.3 to 11.8.

Cost expectations saw a reduction 76.7 to 72.6, the lowest since February 2021. Wage expectations ticked down slightly from 75.5 to 75.4. Profit expectations fell sharply, from -9.8 to -15.3, and pricing intentions decreased from 46.9 to 41.6, the lowest level since December 2020. Inflation expectations edged down from 3.76% to 3.59%.

According to ANZ, "This month's Business Outlook survey makes for grim reading, but it also provides confirmation that inflation pressures are waning."

They indicated that significant progress in reducing non-tradable inflation is anticipated, which, barring any unforeseen inflationary spikes, should restore RBNZ's confidence. This would potentially allow for future rate cuts, signaling a cautiously optimistic outlook on inflation control and economic stability.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9091; (P) 0.9120; (R1) 0.9153; More....

Range trading continues in USD/CHF below 0.9157 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor with 0.9077 minor support intact. On the upside, above 0.9157 will bring retest of 0.9223. However, on the downside, break of 0.9077 will suggest that rebound from 0.8987 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.8987 support. Further break there will resume the fall from 0.9223 to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 will strengthen this case, and maintain medium term bearishness. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146.

Economic Indicators Update

Consumer inflation in Australia rose in April, contrary to the expected decline. Year-on-year price gains totalled 3.6% vs. 3.5% previously, and average forecasts of a decline to 3.4%.

The inflation rate reached a plateau late last year, falling to 3.4%, but has been ticking upward for the past two months. Prices have added ten months out of the past 12. Their rise over the past four consecutive months removes the question of an imminent rate cut.

Judging by the reaction of the currency market, traders are not laying down for a policy tightening. AUDUSD is facing stronger selling on attempts to rise above 0.6650. This is an interesting development, given the rise in industrial metals prices and some recovery in trade with China in recent months.

The Australian currency’s ability to break the multi-month resistance at 0.6650 would open the way to 0.6800, the pivot area of the past 12 months. The current currency market slack, alongside potentially bullish data, is also helping to create domestic pressure.

On the bears’ side, however, is the weakness in retail sales, which saw a 0.1% m/m and 1.3% y/y rise in April.

WTI oil price rose further on Wednesday, extending advance into fourth straight day, following strong acceleration on Tuesday, which resulted in a daily gain of 2.1% and close above important barriers at $79.83/$80.00 (200DMA / psychological).

Bulls cracked next pivot at $80.52 (Fibo 38.2% of $87.61/$76.13), with close above this level to validate bullish signal and open way for further retracement of $87.61/$76.13) and expose next key levels at $81.56/87 (daily Ichimoku cloud base / 50% retracement).

Daily studies are predominantly bullish, though overbought conditions may produce headwinds and keep the price on hold for consolidation, with shallow downticks to provide better levels to re-enter bullish market.

Near-term sentiment is expected to remain positive on expectations that the OPEC+ group will keep its 2.2 million bpd voluntary production cut at a meeting on Sunday and positive demand outlook ahead of summer driving season.

Res: 80.70; 81.56; 81.87; 82.39.
Sup: 80.00; 79.83; 79.11; 78.84.

The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.6650 on Wednesday following the release of Australian economic data. Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year in April, up from 3.5% in March. This slight increase in inflation could prompt questions about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) future interest rate decisions.

Despite the uptick in inflation, it is unlikely to impact the RBA’s interest rate plans significantly. According to official forecasts, the RBA does not anticipate cutting rates before May of next year. The minutes from the latest RBA meeting indicated that while the Board was considering the possibility of a rate hike in May, it ultimately decided to maintain a stable monetary policy.

The RBA has expressed concerns that recent statistical data might sustain inflation above the target level for an extended period. However, the central bank’s current stance is to wait and see, suggesting that no immediate changes to its policy are planned in response to the latest inflation figures.

Moreover, recent retail sales data showed a marginal improvement of 0.1% month-on-month in April from a decline of 0.4% in March. Despite this positive change, the figures fell short of the anticipated 0.3% increase, disappointing the economic outlook.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD has completed a correction and is forming a new wave of decline towards the level of 0.6620. The formation of a consolidation range is expected once this level is reached. A downward exit from this range could lead to a further decline to 0.6580, the local target. A corrective move to 0.6626 (testing from below) may follow, then a decline to 0.6547. The downward trend target is the first one. The bearish indicator technically supports this MACD scenario, with its signal line above zero but directed downwards.

On the H1 chart, the AUD/USD is forming a decline structure to 0.6627. After reaching this level, a potential rise to 0.6650 could occur. Further decline to 0.6620 is also possible, and a breakdown below this level could open the potential for a decline to 0.6608, with the possibility of extending the trend to 0.6580. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50 but expected to drop to 20, indicating a possible continuation of the downward trend.

Summary

Despite mixed economic indicators, the rise of the Australian dollar highlights the complex dynamics affecting the currency. The RBA’s cautious stance appears to be a significant factor in stabilising the AUD, even as inflation slightly increases. Technical analyses suggest a bearish short-term outlook, with the possibility of corrective movements. It is crucial for investors and traders to closely monitor these levels and stay abreast of global economic developments so they can adjust their strategies accordingly.

USDJPY attempts to break above near-term narrow range and sustain gains after Tuesday’s marginal close above pivotal Fibo barrier at 157.01 (61.8% of 160.19/151.85 pullback), where attacks repeatedly failed last week.

Technical signals are mixed on daily chart as Tenkan-sen crossed above Kijun-sen, but positive momentum is fading and stochastic is about to emerge from overbought zone after forming a bearish divergence.

Traders look for stronger direction signals, with speech from BOJ official earlier today suggesting that the central bank will remain on track of adjusting interest rates if inflation moves towards 2%, though lacking to provide more details about timing of next rate move, which as slightly negative factor for yen.

On the other hand, Friday’s release of US PCE report (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) is expected to give fresh information about inflation in the US and contribute to Fed’s plans on monetary policy.

According to forecasts, core PCE is expected to remain unchanged in April, which would add to Fed’s hawkish stance (keeping rates unchanged) which would further inflate the dollar.

Holding above 157.01 pivot would boost prospects for gains towards 158.22 (Fibo 76.4%) and unmask key barriers at 160.00/19 (psychological / Apr 29 multi-year high).

Rising 10DMA port at 156.51, followed by 20DMA (155.71).

Res: 157.40; 157.98; 158.43; 159.00.
Sup: 156.51; 156.00; 155.71; 155.04.

As shown by today's GBP/JPY chart, the exchange rate has not only surpassed the psychological level of 200 yen per pound but has also exceeded the peak of 29 April 2024. The market is now experiencing prices last seen in 2008.

The main driver of the pound’s strength against the yen is the difference in monetary policies enacted by the central banks. While the Bank of England maintains a rate of 5.5%, in Japan it is 0.10% (having been kept unchanged at -0.10% from January 2016 until March 2024 – over 8 years).

Can the GBP/JPY rate go even higher? Fundamentally, if the imbalance in interest rates persists, it creates conditions for a continued rally.

According to Business Recorder, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will act cautiously within its inflation targeting framework. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that some issues are "exceptionally challenging" for Japan after many years of ultra-loose monetary policy.

“The absence of significant interest rate movements poses a considerable obstacle in assessing the economy’s response to changes in interest rates,” he said.

Technical analysis of the GBP/JPY pair on the 4-hour chart today indicates that the price is in an uptrend (shown by the blue channel). However, the 200 yen per pound level is showing signs of resistance:

→ It is a psychological “round” number.

→ In April, the Bank of Japan intervened at this level to support the excessively weak yen, which might make buyers act more cautiously.

→ An analysis of the chart shows that the bulls have been unable to push the price to the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown by the red circle). This is a bearish sign, which can be interpreted as a weakening bullish impulse after surpassing the psychological level.

If the GBP/JPY price can hold above the 200 yen per pound level, it will increase the likelihood that the May uptrend channel will remain valid.

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• Recent additional stimulus measures from China, a reduction in elevated net long positioning from large futures speculators & an uptick in geopolitical risk premium may support higher oil prices.
• Watch the key medium-term support of US$78.40/US$76.60 on WTI crude oil.
• A break above US$81.70 may trigger a multi-week bullish impulsive upmove in WTI crude oil.

Since our last publication, benchmark oil prices have indeed shaped their respective mean reversion decline in the past two months.

The West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) shaped a corrective decline of 12.8% (high to low) from April to May after a period of strong impulsive upmove sequences for three consecutive months from January to March with an accumulated gain of 21% (low to high).

Let’s now unfold the key elements; from fundamental, positioning, and technical factors that may significantly impact West Texas Oil’s price actions.

Improved external demand for commodities from China

In the past three weeks, China’s top policymakers have unveiled several stimulus measures to prevent the economy from slipping into an entrenched mode of deflationary spiral; a $42 billion fund created by China’s central bank, PBOC to buy up unsold homes from property developers.

Most recently on Monday, 27 May, China set up the largest-ever semiconductor investment fund worth $47.5 billion (known as Big Fund III where its funding was almost twice the size of Big Fund II), the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund to jumpstart the development of cutting-edge chip technologies for Chinese semiconductor firms amid the ongoing US-China Tech War.

All these measures may improve consumer and business sentiment in China and in turn, could drive up demand for commodities that trigger a positive feedback loop into the oil market since China is considered the second largest economy in the world.

Geopolitical risk premium is on the rise again

Fig 1:  Geopolitical Risk Index  with WTI crude oil futures as of Apr 2024 (Source: MacroMicro, click to enlarge chart)

Despite several attempts to get Israel and Hamas to engage in a cease-fire talk and establish a process for peace-talk negotiations, the Israel-Hamas war rages on after seven months as Israel forces continue their offensives in the Gaza strip with an increased risk of dragging other stakeholders in the Middle East such as Iran which indirectly plays a part in the disruption of the major Red Sea oil supply route which may drive up prices of oil.

One way to measure geopolitical risk premium is via the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) created by the US Fed economists Dario Caldara and Matteo lacoviello, The GPR index comes with a lag as it is not compiled on a real-time basis but instead on a monthly approach, it is constructed based on the number of newspaper articles that mentioned certain keywords related to geopolitical tensions.

The latest data from the GPR Index has increased to 124.04 in April after four months of decline since November 2023 reading of 139.21 (see Fig 1). Also, the movements of the GPR Index tend to move in direct tandem with the price actions of WTI crude.

Elevated large speculators’ net long positions on WTI futures have dissipated

Fig 2:  Large speculators’ net open positioning with WTI crude oil futures as of 20 May 2024 (Source: MacroMicro,, click to enlarge chart)

Based on the latest Commitments of Traders data as of 20 May 2024 (compiled by Macro Micro), the aggregate net bullish open positions of large speculators in the WTI crude oil futures market of NYMEX (after offsetting the aggregate positions of large commercial hedgers) have reduced by 23% to +485,726 contracts (net long) from +634,884 contracts printed on 8 April 2024 (see Fig 12).

The previous medium-term peaks of WTI crude oil futures seen on 27 September 2023, and 12 April 2023 have coincided with a prior significant built-up in large speculators’ net long positions.

Right now, the most recent spiked-up in net long positioning on 8 April has been reduced which suggests a lower degree of bullish frenzy among large speculators towards WTI crude oil.

Given that net open large speculative positioning flows (primarily from hedge funds) are contrarian in nature which suggests that the current pace of reduction in net long positioning is likely to see an opposite positive reaction in the price actions of WTI crude oil.

Reintegration above US$78.40 with positive medium-term momentum condition

Fig 3:  West Texas Oil medium-term trend as of 29 May 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Since its last Friday, 24 May low of US$76.60, the West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) has rallied by 5.7%, a 3-day consecutive upmove to hit a current intraday high of US$80.86 at this time of the writing.

Positive price action developments in the lens of technical analysis suggest the potential start of a multi-week impulsive upmove sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase that remains intact since the 13 December 2023 low of US$67.81.

Firstly, the corrective decline of 12.8% from the 5 April 2024 high to 24 May 2024 low retested the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel (see Fig 3) and shaped a minor bullish reversal that reintegrated above US$78.40 and the 200-day moving average yesterday, 28 May.

Secondly, the minor bullish reversal in price actions has been accompanied by a bullish divergence condition flashed out by the daily RSI momentum indicator last Thursday, 24 May after a retest on its oversold condition on 3 May.

These observations suggest a possible built-up of medium-term bullish momentum, watch the US$78.40/US$76.60 key medium-term pivotal support on West Texas Oil, and a clearance above US$81.70 near-term resistance sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at US$90.70 (also the upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel) in the first step.

However, failure to hold at US$76.60 invalidates the recovery scenario for another round of corrective decline to expose the major “Double Bottom” support zone of US$71.35/US$67.55.

Market picture

The crypto market added 1.3% in 24 hours to $2.58 trillion. This is roughly the area where trading has been centred for the last week, despite attempts by speculators to rock the market. Volatility in the market has decreased, with prices of the major coins varying between -1.3% (Toncoin) and 3.3% (Solana), while Shiba Inu shot straight up 15% to its highest since early April.

Bitcoin continues to hover near the upper edge of the descending range, building up strength before the next move. All we have to do is reiterate that an exit above $70K will break this bearish pattern. Until then, the classic development is a pullback to the lower boundary, but we see this as an alternative option, suggesting a further breakout after consolidation.

According to CoinShares, net inflows into crypto funds totalled $1.05bn last week, up from $932m a week earlier. Bitcoin investments were up $1.01bn, Ethereum was up $36m, and Solana was up $8m.

News background

Cumulative ETF investments since the beginning of the year rose to a record $14.9 billion. The total AuM of crypto funds reached $98.5 billion. Weekly trading volumes rose 28% to $13.6 billion. CoinShares noted that sentiment is becoming generally positive, which is likely due to investors interpreting the FOMC minutes and recent macroeconomic data as slightly dovish.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor pointed out that 32 cryptocurrency ETFs have accumulated more than 1 million BTC (~$70bn)—or about 5% of all asset issuance. According to SoSoValue, the largest ETF is still Grayscale’s GBTC, with $20bn in assets under management (AUM), almost caught up by its closest competitor, BlackRock’s IBIT.

Medical technology specialist Semler Scientific announced the purchase of 581 BTCs worth $40 million. According to the company, BTCs are now “the Treasury’s primary reserve asset” because they are “a reliable store of value and an attractive investment.” Semler Scientific shares jumped 28%.

George Soros’ fund invested $159 million (2% of assets) in the first quarter in shares of MicroStrategy, a company that accumulates bitcoins.

QCP Capital notes that market participants are expressing optimism about Ethereum, as indicated by the growth of open interest in call options on the digital asset.

CryptoQuant notes that indicators show the Bitcoin rally is not over yet. Low unrealised profits of BTC investors exclude strong selling.

EUR/USD started a downside correction from the 1.0890 resistance. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.9155 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0890 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0860 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is showing positive signs above the 0.9110 resistance zone.
•  There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.9130 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair gained pace for a move above the 1.0850 zone, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro tested the 1.0890 resistance and recently corrected gains against the US Dollar.

The pair dipped below the 1.0870 level. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0860. It even tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0805 swing low to the 1.0889 high.

The pair is showing some bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0870.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0890 zone. An upside break above the 1.0890 level might send the pair toward the 1.0920 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0950 level.

On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0805 swing low to the 1.0889 high at 1.0840. The next major support is near the 1.0825 level. A downside break below the 1.0825 support could send the pair toward the 1.0805 level.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair declined heavily below the 0.9140 level before the bulls appeared. The US Dollar tested 0.9085 and recently started a fresh increase against the Swiss Franc.

The pair climbed above the 0.9110 resistance zone. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.9153 swing high to the 0.9086 low.

The bulls are now facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.9130. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.9130 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.9153 swing high to the 0.9086 low. The next major resistance is at 0.9140.

The main resistance is now near 0.9155. If there is a clear break above the 0.9155 resistance zone and the RSI remains above 50, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could test 0.9200.

If there is another decline, the pair might test the 0.9110 support. The first major support on the USD/CHF chart is near the 0.9085 zone. A downside break below 0.9085 might spark bearish moves. The next major support is near the 0.9040 pivot level. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward the 0.9000 level in the near term.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.