Sample Category Title

Yesterday's release of CPI figures suggests that inflation is slowing down and a rate cut could be on the horizon. This weakened the dollar and boosted the value of assets priced in dollars, including BTC/USD.

As a result, the price of Bitcoin hit a May high.

Meanwhile, there is sustained demand in the market driven by institutional participants investing in Bitcoin ETFs. According to media reports citing 13F filings:

→ JP Morgan invested $731,246 USD

→ Wells Fargo invested $141,817 USD in Grayscale's GBTC.

→ Similar activity is observed with other traditional banks like BNP Paribas and BNY Mellon, indicating a broader industry trend.

Technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart shows that since last November, the Bitcoin price has been forming an expanding fan (shown in blue lines) - similar to what Jesse Livermore referred to as an Accumulation Cylinder (bullish sign).

In addition:

→ The Bitcoin price broke above a two-curve formation (shown in green), which can be interpreted as a 2-month correction from the historical peak on March 14 within the upward trend described by the blue lines;

→ The Bitcoin price reached the fan's median line (shown as a thickened line).

Being around the median can be seen as a precursor to forming a short-term flat and BTC/USD price fluctuations with low intensity around the median.

However, if institutional investments do not weaken and the prospect of rate cuts becomes more real, bulls may attempt to push the Bitcoin price towards the H1 line, signalling a path towards a new historical peak around $100k per coin.

FXOpen offers the world's most popular cryptocurrency CFDs*, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Floating spreads, 1:2 leverage — at your service. Open your trading account now or learn more about crypto CFD trading with FXOpen.

*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market picture

The release of US inflation data sparked a surge in risk asset purchases, with cryptocurrencies leading the charge. This follows a period of prolonged consolidation, which provided enough pent-up energy to fuel increased volatility.

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has added 5.3% to $2.39 trillion – its highest in ten days. But much more importantly, with this move, the market has broken through the resistance of the descending range and is now testing the previous highs. The market’s ability to gain weight on Thursday and Friday will be an important confirmation of the market’s bullish bias. Potentially, this break opens the way to the highs of March, when capitalisation exceeded $2.75 trillion.

Bitcoin has broken out of its short-term triangle in one fell swoop, consolidating above its 50-day moving average and previous local highs. Yesterday may well have seen the end of the correction and the start of a new round of buying. It is worth being prepared for Bitcoin to meet a few obstacles on its way to $72K, although a renewal of historical highs is unlikely to be quiet.

News background

Cane Island Alternative Advisors see Bitcoin rising to $100,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024 or the first quarter of 2025 if the US speculative-grade high-yield bond rate falls from the current 7.5% to levels below 6% or 7%.

According to attorney Scott Jonsson, the SEC is examining the grounds for rejection of spot Ethereum-ETF applications and may consider designating Ethereum as a security. VanEck and Grayscale’s applications are due in May.

El Salvador has mined nearly 474 BTC in three years by harnessing geothermal energy from a volcano. The country’s government currently holds 5,748 BTC (~$380 million).

According to Dune, more than 1 million new coins have been created since the beginning of April. Of these, over 370,000 have launched on Ethereum and 640,000 on Solana. 88% of the coins on the Ethereum network are running on Base’s L2 solution. This activity is probably due to cheap transactions and the hype around meme tokens.

Cable eases from new multi-week high (1.2700) on Thursday, as bulls faced headwinds from significant resistances at 1.2700 zone, provided by the top of daily Ichimoku cloud and Apr 9-10 tops.

In addition, overbought conditions on daily chart prompted traders to partially collect profits from a five-day rally, which accelerated after US inflation data on Wednesday (GBPUSD advanced 0.8% for the day, in the biggest one-day gains since Apr 29).

Dips are likely to be shallow (so far held by broken Fibo 61.8% and daily cloud base) as overall picture is bullish (strong positive momentum / MA’s in bullish setup) and mark positioning for continuation of a larger uptrend from 1.2299 (Apr 22 low).

Broken 100DMA (1.2632) marks next support, followed by 55DMA (1.2601) and key supports at 1.2550/40 zone (Fibo 38.2^% of 1.2299/1.2700 / 200DMA) which should contain extended dips and keep larger bulls in play.

Risk-sensitive pound received fresh support from softer than expected US inflation numbers which may push the US central bank one step closer to eventual start of policy easing, as well as comments from some MPC hawks who favor unchanged BOE rates.

Markets await release of US weekly jobless claims, with last week’s figure above consensus (219K) to provide fresh tailwinds and push the price above pivotal 1.2700 barrier.

Res: 1.2700; 1.2709; 1.2753; 1.2784.
Sup: 1.2632; 1.2601; 1.2569; 1.2540.

• AUDUSD jumps above trading range
• MACD indicates more gains; but RSI heads south
• 20- and 50-day SMAs post bullish cross

AUDUSD posted a strong bullish day on Wednesday, showing some more upside pressure today, towards a fresh four-month high, exiting from the consolidation area of 0.6390-0.6635. A rally higher until the next resistance level of 0.6730 could endorse a bullish retracement in the market.

Technically, the 20- and the 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) posted a bullish crossover suggesting more gains, while the oscillators are mixed. The MACD is holding above its trigger and zero lines, while the RSI is pointing south above the neutral threshold of 50, indicating a potential downside correction.

In the case of steeper increases and a rally towards the 0.6730 barrier, this could endorse an upside recovery, while even higher a move until the 0.6870 high, registered on December 28 could change the neutral-to-bullish outlook.

On the flip side, a drop back until the 0.6635-0.6665 support region may switch the bias to sideways again. Below that, traders need to watch the 0.6555 barriers ahead of the SMAs at 0.6540 and 0.6520 before tumbling to the 0.6465 mark.

In a nutshell, AUDUSD needs more boost to officially confirm a bullish tendency as the recent spike is not enough for changing the outlook. 

Short Term Elliott Wave in SPX suggests that the Index ended wave (4) pullback at 4953.98. From there, it rallies higher in wave (5) as a nesting impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 5121.45 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 5013.45. The Index is nesting higher within wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5200.23 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 5176.63. Wave (iii) higher is still developing.

We can see another nest formed as part of wave (iii). Up from wave (ii), wave i finished at 5229.58 and pullback in wave ii ended at 5211.16. Then, SPX did a strong rally making an all-time-high breaking March peak. Expect the index moving sideways-higher to complete groups of waves 4s and 5s until wave ((iii)) is finished. Right now, there is not a potential target for wave ((iii)). A strong pull back in the index would suggest that wave ((iii)) has ended and wave ((iv)) correction has started. Then, expect to find support for further upside in wave ((v)). Near term, as far as pivot at 4953.9 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.

SPX 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

SPX Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLRnElhhDDA

Daily Pivots: (S1) 195.88; (P) 196.49; (R1) 197.11; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. On the downside, break of 194.74 support will suggest that corrective pattern from 200.53 has started the third leg. Deeper fall would be seen back to 191.34 support and below. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 197.07 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 183.41) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.99; (P) 168.70; (R1) 169.30; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. On the downside, break of 166.73 support will argue that corrective pattern from 171.58 has started the third leg. Deeper fall would then be seen back to 164.01 support and below. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 169.38 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium top could be formed at 171.58 after brief breach of 169.96 (2008 high). As long as 55 W EMA (now at 157.89) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8570; (P) 0.8585; (R1) 0.8595; More...

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8585 minor support argues that rebound from 0.8529 has completed at 0.8619. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8529 support. Decisive break there will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8619 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP is capped below medium term falling trendline. That is, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8491/7 will target 100% projection of 0.8764 to 0.8497 from 0.8643 at 0.8376.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6226; (P) 1.6284; (R1) 1.6320; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias stays neutral. While stronger recovery might be seen, further decline is expected as long as 1.6494 resistance holds. Fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Break of 1.6216 will turn bias back to the downside to 1.6127 support, or further to 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6127 from 1.6742 at 1.5807.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9799; (P) 0.9812; (R1) 0.9833; More...

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9835/47 resistance will resume larger rally from 0.9252. On the downside, however, break of 0.9728 will extend the corrective pattern from 0.9847 with another fall, back to 0.9563 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9563 support holds, rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom is still in favor to continue. Break of 0.9847 resistance will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004.