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The US 30 cash index has once again failed to convincingly break above the 34,280 level prompting a small pullback. This is the sixth time that the bulls have not achieved an upwards breakout in the past 10 months, thus raising questions of their true ability to dictate market movements.

The index is edging higher today, but the momentum indicators seem to favour the bears at this juncture. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) confirms that the short-term bullish trend from the mid-March lows has ended, and the RSI has dipped again below its 50-threshold. More interestingly, the stochastic oscillator is moving lower in an almost vertical fashion revealing a decent bearish tendency.

Should the bears take advantage of the favourable environment and break the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), they would come up against the busy 33,028-33,097 area set by the June 21, 2021 low and the 50-day SMA. Even lower, the key 32,755-767 range, defined by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the January 5, 2022 – October 3, 2022 downtrend and 200-day SMA respectively, is bound to prove tougher to crack.

On the other hand, the bulls crave for another retest of the August 16, 2022 high at 34,280, but they firstly have to break the 33,518-754 area populated by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the October 1, 2021 low. Even higher, the twin December 13, 2022 and May 10, 2021 highs at 34,930 and 35,091 respectively would clearly test their resolve.

To sum up, the repeated failures at the 34,280 level have opened the door to US 30 bears for a sizeable pullback, especially as the overall technical picture appears to favour them. 

WTI oil futures (June delivery) had been in recovery mode since they encountered strong support in mid-March. However, the commodity retraced lower after the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) rejected further advances, re-entering its downward sloping channel and posting a fresh 17-month low of 63.80 in today’s session before recouping some losses.

The momentum indicators currently suggest that bearish forces are reigning supreme. Specifically, the MACD histogram is softening below both zero and its red signal line, while the RSI has flatlined slightly above the 30-oversold mark.

If sellers attempt to push the price lower, the March 2023 bottom of 64.36 could act as the first line of defense. A violation of that territory may open the door for the December 2021 low of 62.25. Failing to halt there, the price could then descend towards the 60.00 psychological mark.

On the flipside, bullish actions could propel the price towards the 72.60 support region, which could serve as resistance in the future. Should that barricade fail, the bulls might attack the 75.70 congested region that includes the 50-day SMA and the upper bound of the descending channel. Further advances could then cease at the 2023 peak of 83.40.

In brief, WTI oil futures experienced a sharp decline and posted a fresh multi-month low after their latest rebound got rejected. For the short-term bearish picture to alter, the price needs to jump above its descending channel.

The Fed raised the rate yesterday by 0.25%, to 5.25%.

→ Now market participants expect a pause in the tightening policy. Moreover, the WSJ is hinting that the rate hike cycle may already be over.

→ According to Powell, it is important to raise the US debt ceiling, but not just raise it, but raise it on time (that is, not drag it out).

→ The Fed believes that the banking system is reliable and there is no cause for concern (by the way, PacWest bank shares fell 50% yesterday — bank management is considering selling it).

Although the decision was expected, it caused increased volatility:

→ US stock market indexes declined.

→ Gold jumped in price.

→ The US dollar index fell to dollar lows. Accordingly, the major currencies rose against the USD.

The daily chart shows that EURUSD is near the high of the year. Note, however, that each of the two renewals of the year's high in April (shown by the arrows) was minor, followed by a pullback. This indicates the strength of sellers around the level of 1.100. It looks like the level is working as a serious resistance preventing the continuation of the uptrend (shown by the blue channel).

By the way, today at 15:15 GMT+3 the decision on the ECB rate will be published (an increase of 0.25% is also expected).

DXY:

The DXY chart has a bearish momentum, with potential for a continuation towards the first support level. The first support is at 100.84, which is a multi-swing low support level. If the price breaks this level, the next support is at 100.00, which is a swing low support.

On the upside, the first resistance level is at 102.21, which is a pullback resistance. The second resistance level is at 102.79, which is an overlap resistance and coincides with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.

It is worth noting that there is an intermediate resistance level at 101.24, which is a pullback resistance. This level could potentially slow down the bearish momentum, but a break above this level may trigger a move towards the first resistance level

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD chart shows a bullish bias with potential for a bullish break through of the first resistance level at 1.1095 and a rise towards the second resistance level at 1.1158. The first support level is at 1.1095, which is a pullback support and may provide a level of support for the price if it drops towards this level. The second support level is at 1.1034, which is another pullback support and may provide additional support for the price if it drops further.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level is at 1.1095, which is a swing high resistance. If the price manages to break through this level, it may rise towards the second resistance level at 1.1158. This level is a swing high resistance as well and coincides with a 138.20% Fibonacci extension.

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD chart is showing bearish momentum, with potential for a bearish reaction off the first resistance level at 1.2583 and a drop towards the first support level at 1.2540. The first support level is an overlap support, which suggests that price may bounce off this level if it reaches it. The second support level is at 1.2498, which is also an overlap support and may provide further support for the price.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level is at 1.2583, which is a swing high resistance and coincides with a 78.60% Fibonacci projection. If the price manages to break through this level, it may rise towards the second resistance level at 1.2623. This level is a swing high resistance as well and coincides with a -27% Fibonacci expansion and a 127.20% Fibonacci extension, which suggests a potential area of strong resistance for the price.

USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF chart shows bearish momentum, with price currently in a descending channel which suggests that price might continue to go lower due to its bearish momentum. There is potential for a bearish continuation towards the first support level at 0.8755, which is an overlap support and may provide a bounce if the price reaches this level. There is also an intermediate support level at 0.8810, which is another overlap support and coincides with a -27% Fibonacci expansion.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level is at 0.8860, which is a pullback resistance. If the price manages to break through this level, it may rise towards the second resistance level at 0.8923, which is an overlap resistance and may provide further resistance for the price.

USD/JPY:

The USD/JPY chart shows bearish momentum, but the overall picture is still somewhat mixed as the price is currently above a major ascending trend line. For the bearish momentum to take over, the price would need to break below the trend line. Currently, there is potential for a bearish break off the first support level at 134.51 and a drop towards 2nd support level at 133.53. The first support level is a pullback support, which suggests that the price may find support if it reaches this level. The intermediate support level at 133.53 is a multi-swing low support and may provide further support for the price if it drops below the first support level.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level is at 135.11, which is a pullback resistance. If the price manages to break through this level, it may rise towards the second resistance level at 137.89. This level is a swing high resistance and may provide strong resistance for the price.

AUD/USD:

The AUD/USD chart shows a bearish momentum, with price currently below a major descending trend line. There is potential for a bearish reaction off the first resistance level at 0.6694 and a drop towards the first support level at 0.6622.

The first support level is an overlap support, which suggests that the price may find support if it reaches this level. The 2nd support level at 0.6574 is a multi-swing low support and may provide further support for the price if it drops below the first support level.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level is at 0.6694, which is an overlap resistance. If the price manages to break through this level, it may rise towards the second resistance level at 0.6753. This level is a swing high resistance and may provide strong resistance for the price.

NZD/USD:

The NZD/USD chart shows bullish momentum, as price is above a major ascending trend line suggesting further bullish momentum may be on the cards. Additionally, price broke above a descending resistance line, which triggered a potential bullish move.

There is potential for a bullish continuation towards the first resistance level at 0.6282. The first support level at 0.6212 is an overlap support, which may provide support for the price if it drops. The second support level at 0.6171 is also an overlap support, which may provide further support for the price if it drops below the first support level.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level at 0.6282 is a pullback resistance. If the price manages to break through this level, it may rise further towards higher levels.

USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD chart is showing bullish momentum as price is currently above a major ascending trend line, indicating that further bullish momentum is on the cards. Based on this analysis, price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the 1st support level at 1.3586 and head towards the 1st resistance level at 1.3663.

The 1st support level at 1.3586 is an overlap support level and also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The 2nd support level at 1.3525 is a multi-swing low support level and also coincides with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. These support levels may provide strong support for the price if it drops.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 1.3663 is an overlap resistance level and also coincides with the 78.60% Fibonacci projection level. If the price manages to break through this level, it may rise towards the 2nd resistance level at 1.3726. This level is a pullback resistance level and may provide strong resistance for the price.

It’s worth noting that as the overall momentum of the chart is bullish, we are looking for prices to rise from support to resistance. However, a break of the 1st support level may trigger a drop towards the 2nd support level. It’s important to keep an eye on the trend lines to confirm the direction of the momentum.

DJ30:

The DJ30 chart is currently showing bullish momentum, with potential for a continuation towards the first resistance level at 33594.85. The first support level at 33272.50 is an overlap support and may provide a level of support if the price were to drop to this level.

The second support level at 32761.03 is another overlap support, but also coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, which could provide stronger support for the price.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level at 33594.85 is a pullback resistance, which means that it may provide strong resistance for the price. This resistance level coincides with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, which further strengthens its potential as a resistance level.

The second resistance level at 33867.51 is an overlap resistance and coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level. This level may provide even stronger resistance for the price, potentially causing a reversal.

GER30:

The GER30 chart is currently showing bullish momentum, and it’s above a major ascending trend line which suggests further bullish momentum is on the cards. There is potential for a bullish continuation towards the first resistance level at 15935.06.

The first support level is at 15655.92, which is an overlap support, and may provide support for the price if it drops towards this level. The second support level is at 15494.65, which is also an overlap support, and may provide further support for the price if it drops below the first support level.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level is at 15935.06, which is a multi-swing high resistance, and may provide strong resistance for the price. If the price manages to break through this level, it may rise towards the second resistance level at 16057.52. This level is a swing high resistance and may also provide strong resistance for the price.

In addition to the support and resistance levels, there is an intermediate support level at 15713.74, which is an overlap support and also has a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement lining up with it. This level may provide additional support for the price if it drops towards this level.

BTC/USD:

The BTC/USD chart shows bearish momentum, as the price is below a major descending trend line, suggesting that the trend may continue downwards. There is potential for a bearish reaction off the first resistance level at 29157 and a drop towards the first support level at 28158.

The first support level is an overlap support and may provide some support for the price if it reaches this level. The second support level at 27833 is also an overlap support and may provide further support for the price if it drops below the first support level.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level is at 29157, which is also an overlap resistance and coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. If the price manages to break through this level, it may rise towards the second resistance level at 30051, which is a multi-swing high resistance and may provide strong resistance for the price.

US500

The US500 chart shows bullish momentum as price is currently above a major ascending trend line. There is potential for a bullish continuation towards the first resistance level at 4107.40.

The first support level at 4061.42 is a multi-swing low support, which suggests that price may find support if it reaches this level. The second support level at 4008.10 is a pullback support and may provide further support for the price if it drops below the first support level.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level at 4107.40 is an overlap resistance and is also lined up with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. If the price manages to break through this level, it may rise towards the second resistance level at 4160.40. This level is an overlap resistance and is also lined up with a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level, which may provide strong resistance for the price.

ETH/USD:

Based on the analysis, the overall momentum of the ETH/USD chart is bearish. There is potential for a bearish reaction off the first resistance level at 1924.23, with a drop towards the first support level at 1812.93.

The first support level is a good level because it is an overlap support. The second support level at 1765.73 is a multi-swing low support which may provide further support for the price if it drops below the first support level.

On the resistance side, the first resistance level at 1924.23 is an overlap resistance which suggests that the price may find resistance if it reaches this level. The second resistance level at 1967.85 is also an overlap resistance and coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Additionally, there is an intermediate support level at 1851.18, which is an overlap support level that may provide some temporary support for the price.

WTI/USD:

WTI: Bearish Momentum Continues as Price Remains Below Major Descending Trend Line

The overall momentum of the WTI chart remains bearish, with price below a major descending trend line indicating further potential downside. Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the 1st resistance and drop to the 1st support level.

The 1st support level is at 64.90 and is a multi-swing low support, making it a good level to watch for potential bounce. The 2nd support level is at 61.66 and is a swing low support, further supporting the idea of potential downside.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is at 71.58 and is an overlap resistance, coinciding with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. This makes it a good level to watch for potential pullbacks. Additionally, there is an intermediate resistance at 68.80, which is an overlap resistance and lines up with a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently showing bullish momentum as the price is in an ascending channel. However, in the short term, the price may drop further to the 1st support level before bouncing back and heading towards the 1st resistance.

The 1st support level is at 2009.22 and is a strong overlap support, coinciding with a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level. The 2nd support level is at 1980.82 and is also an overlap support level.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level is at 2047.72, which is a swing high resistance. The 2nd resistance level is at 2067.01 and is also a swing high resistance.

There is also an intermediate support level at 2031.64 which coincides with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level.

In conclusion, Gold is showing bullish momentum in the long term but may experience some short-term bearish pressure before continuing its bullish trend. The 1st support level at 2009.22 is a critical level to watch, as a bounce from this level could trigger a move towards the 1st resistance at 2047.72. If the price breaks below the 1st support level, the 2nd support level at 1980.82 could provide some support. On the upside, a break of the 1st resistance level could lead to a move towards the 2nd resistance at 2067.01.

Eurozone PMI Services were finalized at 56.2 in April, up from March's 55.0, marking a 12-month high. PMI Composite was finalized at 54.1, up from March's 53.7, an 11-month high.

Among member states, Italy's PMI composite rose to 55.3, a 17-month high, while Germany's increased to 54.2, a 12-month high. Ireland rose to 53.5, a 2-month high. However, Spain dropped to a 2-month low of 56.2, and France fell to a 2-month low of 52.4.

HCOB noted that the service sector is robust across Eurozone, with companies able to pass on at least some inflation in intermediate inputs to customers. Service firms' confidence was reflected in the solid index reading for business expectations and increased staffing levels compared to the previous month.

However, HCOB also highlighted that Eurozone order backlog grew at a weaker pace, nearly stagnating in Germany and falling slightly in Italy. Despite this, all PMI indicators suggest that growth in the Eurozone services sector will continue in the months ahead.

Full Eurozone PMI Services release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3584; (P) 1.3612; (R1) 1.3642; More....

USD/CAD is staying in range below 1.3668 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 1.3521 support intact. Corrective pattern from 1.3976 could have completed with three waves to 1.3299. On the upside, above 1.3668 will target 1.3860/3976 resistance zone. However, firm break of 1.3521 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back towards 1.3299 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3302) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6647; (P) 0.6675; (R1) 0.6701; More...

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6563, and rise from 0.6572 could still extend higher. But near term outlook stays bearish as long as 0.6804 resistance holds, and down trend resumption through 0.6563 low is in favor at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 should indicate completion of whole fall from 0.7156, and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.13; (P) 135.39; (R1) 136.04; More...

USD/JPY's break of 135.13 support indicates short term topping at 137.76, after rejection by 137.90. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 133.00 support. Firm break there will target 129.62 support. But overall, as long as 129.62 holds, larger rebound from 127.20 is still in favor to resume at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 31.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8805; (P) 0.8870; (R1) 0.8906; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the downside on break of 0.8850 support. The down trend from 1.0146 would target 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, break of 0.8993 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is in progress for 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2489; (P) 1.2539; (R1) 1.2616; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the upside as recent up trend resumes by breaking 1.2582. Further rally should target 1.2759 fibonacci level first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.2434 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.0351 medium term term bottom (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Further break of 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095 could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3895. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1801 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.