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As the AUD/USD chart indicates, the Australian dollar is showing weakness against the US dollar at the start of the week. Notably, we are seeing a bearish breakout below the lower boundary of an important ascending channel that had been in place since December 2025.

Among the key bearish factors:

• → increased demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset amid the United States’ involvement in large-scale military actions against Iran. US President Donald Trump has threatened strikes on Iranian power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, while Tehran has warned of potential attacks on key US and Israeli facilities;
• → a decline in Asian equity markets, which are sensitive to disruptions in energy supplies from the Middle East. In turn, the value of the Australian dollar is closely tied to commodity exports from Australia to China;
• → traders’ expectations ahead of inflation data due to be released on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD

On 24 February, we confirmed the validity of the ascending channel, within which we:

• → identified signs of weakness during the formation of highs A and B;
• → suggested a potential break below the channel median with a move towards the psychological level of 0.7000.

Indeed, the price failed to surpass high B and moved into the lower half of the channel in early March. As shown by the first arrow, on 3 March it briefly dipped below the psychological 0.7000 level before quickly rebounding, signalling strong demand.

However, the underlying weakness near highs A and B persisted. Between 10–12 March, bulls attempted to break through these resistance levels but failed to hold above the new high. From a Smart Money Concept perspective, this resembles a liquidity grab in the buy-side liquidity (BSL) zone — a bearish signal.

In the short term, a rebound from the March low (around 0.6950) is possible. However, when considering a broader outlook, traders should not rule out:

• → the 0.7000 level turning into resistance;
• → further development of a downward trend within an increasingly well-defined descending channel.

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EUR/USD fell to 1.1549 on Monday, with the US dollar extending gains from the previous session amid heightened demand for safe-haven assets as the Middle East conflict escalates.

The confrontation between the US and Israel against Iran has entered its fourth week with no signs of de-escalation. Donald Trump has threatened to strike Iran's energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Tehran has announced it is prepared to attack key US and Israeli targets in the region in response.

Elevated oil prices continue to fuel inflationary concerns and reduce the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Some market participants are even beginning to consider the possibility of a rate hike later this year.

Last week, the Fed held rates steady as expected. Jerome Powell noted that it remains too early to assess the full economic impact of the Iran conflict.

The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan also left rates unchanged but signalled their readiness to tighten policy further should inflationary pressures persist.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.1526. An upside breakout is expected, with a continuation wave towards 1.1647 as a near-term target. Subsequently, a new downward wave is anticipated to 1.1529. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator – its signal line is above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting ongoing bullish momentum and the potential for the uptrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next downward wave towards 1.1499. After reaching this level, a rebound to 1.1556 is expected, with potential for the subsequent growth wave to extend to 1.1647. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator – its signal line is below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to drive safe-haven demand for the US dollar. With the conflict entering its fourth week and oil prices remaining elevated, inflationary concerns persist, delaying expectations for Fed rate cuts. Central banks across major economies remain alert, keeping tightening on the table. While technical indicators suggest potential short-term rebound, the broader outlook for the euro remains fragile as market risks show no signs of abating.

• GOLD extends nine‑day losing streak into negative territory; eyes 200-day support.
• Mideast tensions and inflation fears intensify selling pressure.
• Momentum indicators slide further into oversold zones.

Gold is sliding over 8% on Monday, breaching a four‑month low at 4,150, as escalating Middle East tensions fuel inflation concerns and expectations of higher global interest rates.

The precious metal has broken below its medium‑term ascending trendline and extended losses into a ninth consecutive session, slipping under its year‑to‑date low of 4,400 from January 2 and marking its weakest level since November 11, 2025. Last week alone, gold shed more than 10.5%.

The momentum indicators confirm the entrenched bearish tone. The stochastics and RSI are flatlining and firmly in oversold territory, reflecting persistent downside pressure, while the MACD continues to deepen in negative territory, underscoring the force of the selloff.

The 200‑day simple moving average (SMA) near 4,090 is now the key support to watch. A decisive break would reinforce the bearish bias and expose the psychological 4,000 level. Below that, the October and September lows near 3,880, 3,720 and 3,620 become the next downside targets.

On the upside, initial resistance sits in the 4,300-4,400 band, followed by a potential recovery attempt toward the previously supportive uptrend line near 4,650.

Summing up, gold’s downtrend remains firmly in place, with monthly losses now exceeding 21.5% and wiping out year‑to‑date gains. As long as price stays below the broken uptrend line, and especially if it falls through the 200‑day SMA, any rallies are likely to remain shallow and vulnerable to renewed selling for now.

As the XAU/USD chart indicates, today, shortly after the start of the trading week, gold fell below $4,150 (the low of the year). The last time prices were at this level was in early December 2025, before the rally towards the all-time high.

Why Is Gold Declining?

Gold prices are being pressured by a combination of factors, including:

• → expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer;
• → rising inflation risks driven by elevated oil prices.

In such conditions, market participants may shift capital into bonds, which appear more attractive than gold, as the metal does not generate yield.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

On the morning of 16 March, while analysing gold’s price movements, we identified a sequence of lower highs and lower lows (A–B–C–D–E). In addition:

• → key technical support levels were broken;
• → the outline of a descending channel was established;
• → we suggested that if bears maintained control, the price could move towards the lower boundary of the channel.

As the XAU/USD chart shows, by 18 March a renewed bearish impulse had emerged. Price not only declined towards the lower boundary (as marked by the arrow) but also broke below it, providing grounds to expand the descending channel. However, the lower boundary of the extended channel has so far held against selling pressure.

The current situation appears highly stressed:

• → from the March high, gold has lost around 25%;
• → media reports point to the worst week since 1983;
• → virtually any oscillator indicates strong oversold conditions;
• → the ATR indicator has surged to extremely high levels, which may signal cascading liquidations of long positions.

In this environment, traders should take into account the heightened volatility in gold prices in order to manage risk more effectively. A slowdown in the decline cannot be ruled out, supported by:

• → the proximity of the psychological $4,000 level;
• → an elevated geopolitical backdrop, primarily driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold price extended losses below $4,500 before the bulls appeared. WTI Crude oil prices are rising and could climb further higher toward $105.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price failed to clear $5,000 and declined heavily against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,525 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $95.00 resistance zone.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line at $97.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price failed to settle above $5,000 and reacted to the downside, as discussed in the previous analysis. The price traded below $4,800 and $4,650 to enter a bearish zone.

There was a sharp drop below $4,500. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 30. Finally, it tested the $4,320 zone. A low was formed at $4,319, and the price is now consolidating losses.

Immediate resistance on the upside is $4,420 or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,734 swing high to the $4,319 low.

The first major hurdle sits at $4,525. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,525 and the 50% Fib retracement. A close above $4,525 could initiate a recovery wave to $4,635. An upside break above $4,635 could send Gold price toward $4,735. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $5,010.

If there is no fresh increase, the price could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,320 level. The first key area of interest might be $4,300. If there is a downside break below $4,300, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop to $4,200.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a strong increase from $91.80 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke $95.00.

There was a sustained upward movement above $95.50 and $98.00. More importantly, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line at $97.00. The bulls pushed the price above the 50-hour simple moving average, and the RSI climbed toward 60.

A high was formed near $99.42 before there was a minor pullback. The price declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $91.77 swing low to the $99.42 high.

However, the bulls are active above $95.00. Immediate resistance is $99.40. If the price climbs further, it could face hurdles near $100.00. The next major stop for the bulls might be $102.00. Any more gain might send the price toward $105.00.

Conversely, the price might correct gains and retest the 50-hour simple moving average at $95.60 and the 50% Fib retracement. The next area of interest on the WTI crude oil chart could be $94.70.

If there is a downside break, the price might decline to $91.80. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward $85.00.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets

The Middle East conflict keeps casting a shadow over financial markets, affecting literally every asset class. Channels through which are multiple. Risk premia and inflation (expectations) batter long-term government bonds. The impact of significantly higher rates on already fragile public finances acts as an accelerant. The UK last Friday was case in point with a batch of very poor deficit numbers adding more pressure to gilts. The worrying thing is that the February figures pre-date the Iran war, so they are not even taking into account the increased interest rate burden nor the potential fiscal response to higher energy prices. The UK 10-yr yield briefly topped the 5% barrier Friday for the first time since 2008. German yields in the 10-30 yr bucket added 7.3-8.1 bps with the 10-yr closing at the highest level since 2011 (3.04%). Treasuries underperformed by rising 10-13 bps in the same segment. The front end of the curve meanwhile is positioning for rate hikes. The ECB and especially the Bank of England, both scarred by the 2022 energy crisis, showed they are ready and willing. UK short-term rates soared 16 bps. The US and Germany joined the move higher with 11-12 bps and >8bps respectively. Money markets are pricing in more than three hikes this year by the ECB and BoE while any remaining rate cut bets in the US have swapped for a 60% hike chance by end of this year. US president Trump’s 48-hour deadline issued on Saturday is bound to keep core bonds at all maturities under pressure at the start of another potentially explosive week. Trump on Saturday demanded the Strait of Hormuz to be fully open and without threats or Iran would have its power plants bombed. Iran has shown little intention of complying. Oil prices react by moving higher. Brent is currently trading around $113 per barrel. Stagflationary vibes meanwhile are hurting risk assets. The EuroStoxx50 (-2% on Friday) lost key support from the pre-Liberation Day high (5568.2) and the 23.6% retracement on the rally that followed the now infamous April 2. The S&P500 (-1.5%) is at a key technical juncture around 6500. Losses on Asian stock markets this morning are suggesting more pain is inbound. The US dollar is the preferred currency still but truth be told: it isn’t steamrolling its peers either. USD/JPY does close in on the crucial 160 barrier, hovering near the levels that prompted (market) talk of a coordinated US-Japanese FX intervention. EUR/USD lost three big figures from 1.18 since the war erupted but since then traded sideways around the 1.15 lever. For sterling it seems that the significantly widening interest rate differentials are losing relevance as a GBP driving factor. EUR/GBP is bottoming out north of 0.86.

News & Views

Rating agency Standard and Poor’s on Friday raised Ireland’s credit rating to AA+ from AA with a stable outlook. The move was driven by stronger economic and fiscal profiles. Despite rising global trade protectionism, Ireland’s domestic economy has expanded by close to 5% on average for 5 consecutive years. Given the economy's extreme openness (exports equivalent to 144% of GDP), it will remain sensitive to external shocks and decisions of a handful of multinational companies. Even so, S&P assesses that ‘the economy's diversity, the significant fiscal and economic buffers, the sound policy settings, and membership in the EU and the euro area will help authorities shield households and companies from a slowdown in global growth, a withdrawal of foreign direct investment, or deteriorating terms of trade’. The government has taken advantage of recent economic success to rebuild fiscal buffers and S&P sees budget surpluses at an average of 1.3% of gross national income (GNI) over 2026-2029. Net government debt furthermore has fallen to 43% of GNI in 2025 from 96% of GNI in 2020.

In an address at the China Development forum in Beijing on Sunday, Prime Minister Li Qiang addressed the concerns of trading partners on China’s lager trade surplus. He confirmed the country’s intention to further open its economy and to work to promote a more sound and balanced development of trade. In this perspective, he indicated that China would further widen market access for the services sector, and increase imports of medical and health care products, digital technologies and low carbon services to provide more business opportunities for foreign companies. The ‘commitments’ came as China last year posted a record $ 1.2 trillion trade surplus last year. At the same event, PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng put the impact of the large current account surplus into perspective as he said that is allocated to different regions and industries worldwide through foreign investment. In this respect he sees it as underpinning global economic growth and financial stability. The PBOC governor also indicated that China has no intention to gain competitive advantage of a currency depreciation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6347; (P) 1.6418; (R1) 1.6546; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral with focus on 1.6594 resistance. Firm break there will confirm short term bottoming at 1.6125, and bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.6769) and above. Nevertheless, below 1.6413 minor support will bring retest of 1.6125 low. Decisive break there will resume larger fall from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7245) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8632; (P) 0.8656; (R1) 0.8698; More…

EUR/GBP is staying below 55 D EMA (now at 0.8685) and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, firm break of 0.8611 will resume the whole fall from 0.8863 to 100% projection of 0.8863 to 0.8611 from 0.8788 at 0.8536. However, sustained break above 55 D EMA will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8788 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development revived the case that whole rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) has completed at 0.8863, after rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 (2022 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618 will confirm this case, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 0.8863 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.13; (P) 183.70; (R1) 184.83; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays mildly on the upside from 184.75 resistance. Firm break there will resume the whole rise from 180.78 and target a retest on 186.86 high. For now, risk will stay mildly on the upside a long as 182.02 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations would be seen. Nevertheless, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 175.61) holds, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.95; (P) 211.66; (R1) 212.51; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays mildly on the upside at this point. Firm break of 213.28 resistance will resume the rally from 207.20 and target a retest on 214.98 high. For now, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 210.77 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 203.13) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.