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Key Highlights

• GBP/USD extended losses and traded below 1.3200.
• The bears might remain active near 1.3200 and 1.3250 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold prices declined sharply to a new multi-week low below $4,000.
• The US GDP could grow by 1.6% in Q1 2026.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound faced rejection near 1.3275 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD reacted to the downside and traded below 1.3200.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below 1.3200, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bears even pushed the pair to a new multi-week low below 1.3150.

The greenback seems to be gaining strength ahead of the US GDP data. If the bears remain in action, the pair could dip further below 1.3120.

The first major support could be near 1.3050. The main support might be 1.3000. A downside break and close below 1.3000 might spark bearish moves. In the mentioned case, the bears could aim for a test of 1.2880.

If there is a recovery wave, GBP/USD could face resistance at 1.3200. The next major resistance might be 1.3250. A close above 1.3250 could open the doors for a larger increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3350.

Looking at Gold, the bears remained in action, pushed the price below $4,000, and might continue to pressure the market in the near term.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2026 – Forecast 1.6% versus previous 1.6%.
• US Personal Income for May 2026 (MoM) - Forecast +0.4%, versus 0% previous.
• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 225K, versus 226K previous.
• US Durable Goods Orders for May 2026 – Forecast -4.3% versus +8.0% previous.

Platinum: ⬇️ Sell

– Platinum broke support level 1645.00

– Likely to fall to support level 1500.00

Platinum under the bearish pressure after the earlier breakout of the support level 1645.00, which has been reversing the price from December.

The breakout of the support level 1645.00 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 of the higher impulse wave (C) from May.

Given the strong daily downtrend, Platinum can be expected to fall to the next major support level 1500.00 (target for the completion of wave 3), which has been revering the price from October.

WTI Crude Oil: ⬇️ Sell

– WTI Crude Oil broke support level 75.00

– Likely to fall to support level 65.00

WTI Crude Oil recently broke the support zone between the support level 75.00, support  trendline of the daily down channel from May and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.

The breakup of this support zone accelerated the active impulse wave C of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from March.

WTI Crude Oil can be expected to fall further to the next support level 65.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave C).

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has stabilised at a low of $2.14T, having lost its recovery momentum in the second half of June after touching the 61.8% line. Consequently, there is a risk of a bearish expansion pattern forming, with the potential for a decline to a market capitalisation of $1.6T, a quarter below the current level. A break below the early-June lows would confirm this scenario, although increased buyer activity is evident near current levels. In any case, the stock market and the US dollar remain the key drivers, while cryptocurrencies are reacting to changes in the fundamental backdrop.

Bitcoin is trading below $63K, once again hovering near its seven-day lows. At these levels, the leading cryptocurrency remains close to its 200-week moving average. A dip towards this line in 2022 marked the start of nearly six quarters of poor performance, with prices hovering near this curve; in 2018, such a period lasted six months, and in 2015, nine. In other words, history suggests we should brace for a crypto winter rather than a rapid rebound.

News Background

Strategy purchased an additional 520 BTC last week for $34.9 million. The company now holds 847,363 BTC, acquired for $64.1 billion at an average price of $75.7K per Bitcoin.

Investment firm Strive acquired 759 Bitcoins last week for $50 million at an average price of $65.9K per coin. The total Bitcoin on Strive’s balance sheet now stands at 19,864 BTC. Since January, the company has increased its holdings by approximately 3,700 BTC.

BitMine has increased its Ethereum reserves to 5.67 million ETH, having purchased an additional 52,203 ETH over the past week. BitMine’s reserves now account for 4.7% of the total Ethereum supply.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee remains optimistic about ETH despite incurring multi-billion-dollar losses on his positions. In his view, the crypto market is currently in the early stages of a ‘crypto spring’.

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego has compared investing in Bitcoin to investing in property. He urged investors not to fixate on short-term price fluctuations but to view BTC as a means of preserving wealth for many decades.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Markets

Brent oil slid to a new post-war low today. One barrel currently sells for $74.65, the first sub $75 print since the Middle East conflict erupted end-February. This compares to a $120 peak end-April and the $60-$70 range prior to the war. Prices have dropped dramatically in anticipation of flows restoring rapidly through the Strait of Hormuz. Official tankers vessel crossings have indeed picked up in recent days, following the interim peace deal between the US and Iran, but remain well below the levels seen before (15 vs roughly 60 on average). The US and Iran meanwhile are working their way towards a permanent deal (that amongst others deals with the nuclear issue). Negotiations are likely to be time-consuming and prone to setbacks but markets are willing to look through. Core bonds extended gains after the oil break lower with US Treasuries outperforming German bunds. US rates drop 3.2 to 6.2 bps in a flattening move. We note that for the 10-yr yield the inflation expectations component recently (June 22) turned below the real yield. Such a cross-over is rare (happened only a handful of times the last 15 years+) and gained further traction since the Fed policy meeting of last week. Warsh's pledge to deliver on price stability has compressed inflation expectations further. Real yields meanwhile have also climbed higher in what can be seen as a vote of confidence in the US economy. European (swap) yields drop 3.1-4.1 bps in similar flattening fashion. The 10-yr tenor is trading at the lowest level since mid-March. The US dollar confirms yesterday's technical push higher against the euro with EUR/USD sliding towards 1.133. This 13-month low offers negligible support (38.2% retracement on the 2025-2026 EUR/USD rally) before the 1.12 area and more important 1.11 zone pops up. DXY soars to 101.77 with targets from a technical point of view seen at 102.86 & 104.59. USD/JPY grinds higher, testing the patience of Japanese officials. Finance minister Katayama yesterday said he and his US counterpart Bessent agreed on taking "bold" steps if needed. Stock markets trade with caution. The EuroStoxx50 sheds 0.4% towards first support at 6200. Wall Street opens little changed. The Nasdaq rises 0.2% after yesterday's 2.5% beating. After-market results from chipmaker Micron will help shape sentiment tomorrow.

News & Views

The Czech composite economic sentiment indicator rose 1.6 pts in June as both of its components improved. Business confidence improved only slightly (+0.8 pts to 99.8). The gain in consumer confidence was more outspoken (+3.1 pts to 106.5), coming after two monthly declines. The share of consumers expecting a deterioration in the overall economic situation in the country decreased. More households expect an improvement in their financial situation. Concerns about rising prices & higher in unemployment stayed unchanged. Regarding business sentiment, confidence increased in industry, but decreased slightly in trade and in selected services and significantly in construction. Better confidence in June comes as the Czech National Bank (CNB) last week raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75%. CNB assessed that especially core inflation remained too elevated on a range of domestic factors including accelerating credit growth, public expenditure, a tight labour market and rapidly rising wages and household spending. At 4.12% the Czech 2-y swap rate currently trades 3 bps higher compared to after the CNB decision. The krone is losing ground to EUR/CZK 24.24, partially driven by a stronger dollar.

The Swedish Riksbank today published the Minutes from its June 16 policy meeting when it kept the policy rate at 1.75%. The post-meeting statement indicated an increased probability of a hike later this year due to upside inflation risks for the supply shock of the war in the Middle East. The Minutes today showed divergence between the MPC members on the degree of the upside inflation risks. In its assessment on the upward risks to inflation, governor Thedéen in particular addressed the importance of the koruna exchange rate as a factor which in an unfavourable scenario could strengthen the inflationary impulse. Last year's strength of the koruna had continued to the Swedish context of low underlying inflation. However, the Swedish currency in the previous months declined from a cycle best near EUR/SEK 10.50 end January to currently trade near EUR/SEK 11.09. If this trend continues, the currency could gain weight as a factor in the Riksbank decision making process. For now governor Thedéen concludes that the Riksbank decision means that they are shifting the earlier course in a slightly tighter direction, but that the rudder angle remains small as it can increase or decrease depending on the risks.

Steep bear-leg from 0.7000 zone extends into second consecutive day and hits the lowest levels since early April, as the Aussie dollar came under increased pressure from stronger dollar, driven by expectations that Fed may start tightening its monetary policy as early as September.

Fresh fall in metal prices also contributed to pair’s accelerating losses (AUDUSD was down 2.2% from Tuesday’s opening until early US session on Wednesday.

Bears eye targets at 0.6853 (200DMA) and 0.6833 (Mar 30 higher low), but may face headwinds, as daily studies are oversold.

Positioning for fresh push lower would be likely near-term scenario, with broken Fibo support at 0.6950 (38.2% of 0.6421/0.7277 rally) to cap upticks and keep larger bears intact.

Violation of 0.6833 pivot to generate initial signal of reversal and open way for deeper correction of larger 0.5914/0.7277 uptrend.

Res: 0.6950; 0.7000; 0.7056; 0.7075
Sup: 0.6853; 0.6833; 0.6800; 0.6756

Dollar remained firmly in control of global markets today, extending its broad-based rally even as risk sentiment showed tentative signs of stabilization. US equity futures pointed to a modest rebound at the open following this week's sharp technology-led selloff, as investors appeared reluctant to make aggressive bets ahead of Micron's earnings report after the bell. The chipmaker has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI investment boom, with its shares surging more than 260% this year as companies pour billions of dollars into AI infrastructure.

The cautious tone reflects a growing debate over whether the recent tech correction is merely a temporary bout of profit-taking or the start of a more significant reassessment of AI-related valuations. Some analysts argue that the long-term earnings story remains intact given the enormous scale of corporate spending on AI. Others point to emerging signs of fundamental pressure, including increasing price competition among AI model developers, falling rental prices for older-generation GPUs, and a broader industry shift toward lower-cost models. These developments do not necessarily undermine the long-term AI story, but they raise questions about whether the sector's most optimistic growth assumptions can continue to justify current valuations.

For now, markets appear unwilling to answer those questions ahead of fresh earnings guidance from one of the industry's key bellwethers. Even a strong Micron report may not guarantee a sustained recovery. It is not uncommon for markets to continue selling after positive earnings if investors are already focused on broader concerns about valuation, positioning, or the economic outlook. The violent selloffs seen across Asian technology stocks this week suggest sentiment remains fragile.

Another factor hanging over equities is the Federal Reserve. Markets appear to have largely absorbed the prospect of one additional rate hike this year following last week's FOMC meeting. The more difficult question is whether policymakers could ultimately deliver two. That risk has become increasingly important as inflation remains elevated and Fed officials continue emphasizing concerns about persistent services inflation. The uncertainty surrounding the policy outlook is making it harder for investors to justify paying premium valuations for growth stocks.

Meanwhile, Dollar continues to benefit from both safe-haven demand and expectations of tighter US monetary policy. The Dollar Index surged through the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 110.17 to 95.55 at 101.38 earlier this week, a development that strongly suggests the broader downtrend has already reversed. The breakout has shifted market focus from whether Dollar can rally further to how far the move can extend.

Two technical levels now stand out as particularly important confirmation signals. First, EUR/USD is approaching the 1.1300 area. A decisive break lower would reinforce the view that the pair is undergoing a medium-term bearish reversal after failing to sustain gains near the 1.2000 psychological level earlier this year. Second, Gold is threatening the key USD 4,000 psychological support zone. A decisive break there could trigger another wave of stop-loss selling and attract fresh momentum-driven shorts.

Taken together, these developments suggest that Dollar strength is becoming more deeply embedded across markets. Micron's earnings may determine whether technology stocks can stabilize in the near term. But the bigger story is whether Dollar's breakout can continue drawing confirmation from currencies, precious metals, and Fed expectations. So far, the answer appears to be yes. For the week, Dollar remains the strongest performer among major currencies, followed closely by Yen, while Kiwi and Aussie continue to sit at the bottom of the rankings.

RBNZ Hike Bets Collapse as NZD/USD Accelerates Toward Critical 0.5580 Support

Just weeks ago, markets were debating whether the RBNZ could raise rates as soon as July. Today, those bets have largely disappeared. Falling oil prices, weak domestic growth, and a stronger Dollar have combined to push NZD/USD toward a critical support zone that could determine the pair's direction for the rest of the year. Read More.

Dollar Index Breaks Key Fibonacci Barrier, Sets Stage for July's Bigger Battle

The Dollar's rally is not just a Fed story. A technology-led liquidation wave, quarter-end positioning, and growing expectations of further tightening are all pushing in the same direction. After breaking a key Fibonacci barrier, Dollar Index is heading toward what could be its most important test of 2026. Read More.

Germany's Ifo Business Climate Rises as Firms Hope for Geopolitical Relief

German companies are feeling better about the present, but they are not yet convinced about the future. June's Ifo survey showed improving business conditions and easing geopolitical concerns, yet weak orders and cautious expectations continue to hold back confidence. Read More.

Ueda Reinforces Hawkish BoJ Message, Says More Rate Hikes Likely

The key message from Kazuo Ueda was that policymakers still believe monetary conditions are accommodative even after last week's hike to 1%. That suggests the debate inside the BoJ is centered on the timing of future hikes rather than whether more tightening is needed. Read More.

BoJ Hawks Eye Path Toward 2% Neutral Rate, Summary Shows

The biggest surprise in the BoJ's June Summary of Opinions was not the support for last week's rate hike. It was the growing discussion about where rates should go next. Several policymakers argued that Japan's neutral rate may be closer to 2%, suggesting the debate has shifted from whether to tighten policy to how quickly to do it. Read More.

Australia CPI Misses Expectations at 4%, Yet Core Inflation Sends Hawkish Signal

Australia's inflation report delivered good news and bad news at the same time. Falling fuel prices pushed headline inflation lower than expected, but the RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation accelerated. The result is a report that eases immediate inflation fears while keeping the August rate debate very much alive. Read More.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

EUR/USD's decline continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained break of 1.1353 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication. Next near term is 100% projection of 1.2081 to 1.1408 from 1.1848 at 1.1175. On the upside, above 1.1416 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal after rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by break of 1.1621 resistance, will retain medium term bullishness.

The dollar continues to trend higher and hit highest levels in over one year on Wednesday, moving in a steep bull-leg that extends into sixth consecutive day.

Growing bets of Fed rate hike (currently at 72% for September rate hike vs 45% previous month), following recent hawkish remarks from US policymakers and economic data signaling that US economy remains strong, continue to underpin the dollar.

The price rises above psychological 100 level for the second straight week, with Tuesday’s break above 101 zone (Fibo 38.2% of 110.00/95.35 downtrend / round-figure), bringing in focus targets at 102.00 and 102.40/60 zone (bull-channel upper boundary / 50% retracement / 200WMA) and 102.91 (weekly cloud top).

Bulls continue to hold grip and so far do not react to overbought daily studies, though some corrective action should be anticipated in the near term.

Broken Fibo 38.2% (100.94) and former top (100.48) reverted to solid supports which should ideally contain potential dips.

Caution on extension below 100.00 pivot that would put bulls on hold and allow for deeper pullback.

Res: 101.80; 102.00; 102.40; 102.67
Sup: 100.94; 100.48; 100.21; 100.00

EUR/USD's decline continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained break of 1.1353 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication. Next near term is 100% projection of 1.2081 to 1.1408 from 1.1848 at 1.1175. On the upside, above 1.1416 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal after rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by break of 1.1621 resistance, will retain medium term bullishness.