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• Bitcoin breaks lower and drags pessimistic sentiment in Cryptocurrencies
• With the current volatile environment, investors reduce risk-positioning
• Observing technical analysis for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana

Cryptocurrencies are struggling after rejecting early-year rebound attempts.

Risk sentiment remains weak even as equities hover near all-time highs: Investors are reducing exposure to risk-sensitive assets, mirroring the underperformance in semiconductor and tech sectors as high-beta capital rotates back into hardware.

Digital assets faced significant headwinds at the end of 2025, lagging behind most other asset classes – These negative flows still continue to weigh on the sector.

MicroStrategy (MSTR), a key figure in the previous bull run, is now under scrutiny as its Bitcoin holdings near the breakeven point, with an average cost basis of approximately $76,000.

As noted in our year-end analysis, the total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization is breaking support after previously holding its long-term upward trendline, signaling potential for further downside – Keep an eye on the $2 Trillion mark!

Crypto total Market Cap Monthly Chart – Source: TradingView

Cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile.

Historically, the best investment opportunities arise when interest and mentions are low, while peak popularity often signals a time to take profits.

Currently, the market remains active with traders attempting to buy dips, suggesting sentiment has not yet fully washed out.

Given the bearish short-term outlook, patience is advisable.

Letting prices and hype cool down while waiting for a more favorable macro setup may offer better entry points – Still, the large corrections already favor better entries compared to peak prices from mid-2025.

This is when starting DCA strategies could start to make sense.

Current Session in Cryptos – February 2, 2026 (15:23). Source: FInviz

Following a disastrous weekend session, altcoins are seeing a timid recovery but remain well below last week's levels. Most of the main names are green on the day and the biggest gains stand around 5%.

Let's dive right into the Daily Charts and technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart, February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Bitcoin freshly retested its Liberation Day lows ($74,500) and is rebounding timidly from that level.

With the painful action from the weekend, it is rough to say that dip-buying is looking like a favorable setup – At least for now.

A bullish push above $80,000 and daily close above the level relaunches positive prospects for Bitcoin and the rest of the Crypto Market.

Consolidating below the key psychological level could lead to further downside, with the next Main support at $63,000 (Minor support at $70,000).

Levels of interest for BTC trading:

Support Levels

• $75,000 Key long-term support (Liberation Day lows)
• $68,000 to $70,000 end-2024 Minor Support
• $$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support

Resistance Levels

• $80,000 to $83,000 Major Pivot (November 21 Lows $80,740)
• $88,000 to $93,000 Pivotal Resistance
• $98,000 to $100,000 Resistance
• Resistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000
• Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000

Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Ethereum gave back its early 2026 positive setup, having broken first its $3,000 handle before giving up all of its Mid-2025 explosion throughout last week.

Its overnight wick retested ETH's pre-June War Support zone ($2,100 to $2,300) with the action remaining fragile at that level.

Traders will want to see a high volume and positive candle, preferably after a double bottom for the action to turn more positive – For now, expect consolidation near support.

Levels of interest for ETH trading:

Support Levels:

• $2,100 to $2,300 June War support ($2,150 overnight lows)
• $2,000 psychological support
• $1,385 to $1,750 2025 Major Support
• 2025 Lows $1,384

Resistance Levels:

• $2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Pivot
• $3,000 to $3,200 December resistance
• $3,400 January Highs
• $3,500 (+/- $50) Key Resistance
• $4,000 Dec 2024 Top Main Resistance zone
• $4,950 Current new All-time highs

Solana (SOL) 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Solana (SOL) 4H Chart, February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Solana got subject to quite some heavy selling, representing the rest of the Altcoin market in its struggles.

Now facing a very important test at its $100 Liberation Day support, traders will want to watch if bulls can retake control after the 57% retracement from its 2025 peak.

Repassing above $115 would turn the momentum from bearish to neutral-bullish on short-timeframe.

Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:

Support Levels:

• $97 to $100 Liberation Day lows
• $95.95 Weekend Lows
• $76 to $82 Major 2022 Pivot

Resistance Levels:

• Major Momentum Pivot $115 to $120
• $125 to $130 2026 Base Resistance
• $140 to $150 Major Resistance
• $253 Cycle highs

Safe Trades!

Oil prices have slipped 6% today in what is a poor start to the month. This comes after an impressive rally in the month of January.

WTI finished January with gains of around 14% but that turned sour this morning with a 5% plunge in the Asian session. This sharp reversal appears to be driven by a combination of diplomatic shifts in the Middle East and strategic supply decisions by major producers.

The primary drivers behind the drop

The most immediate catalyst for the price drop is the sudden cooling of tensions between the United States and Iran. Just a week ago, markets were pricing in a significant risk of military conflict after US President Donald Trump hinted at potential strikes.

However, remarks made by the President on Sunday expressing hope for a new deal with Iran with a meeting scheduled for Friday this week which has dramatically pivoted investor sentiment.

The prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough suggests a potential easing of sanctions. If an agreement is reached, Iran, a major OPEC member, could legally return significant volumes of crude to the global market.

This "peace premium" being removed from the price of oil has led to a rapid sell-off, as traders re calibrate for a more well-supplied market than previously feared.

OPEC + maintains the status quo

Adding to the downward pressure, OPEC+ concluded its latest meeting with a decision to keep production levels unchanged for March. While the group’s "cautious approach" is intended to maintain market stability, it failed to provide the bullish spark some investors were hoping for. By reaffirming a freeze on planned production increases, OPEC+ signaled that they anticipate seasonally weaker demand in the coming months.

Taking a look at US drilling activity, it appears to be in a slump because low prices are making new investments less attractive for energy companies. Recent data from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active oil rigs held steady at 411 last week, which is significantly lower than this time last year.

While there was a tiny increase in gas drilling, the overall number of active rigs remains 36 below last year's levels. Because experts expect there to be more oil on the market than people actually need this year (a "surplus"), US oil production growth is expected to stay limited throughout 2026.

Forward Outlook - bulls or bears to prevail?

The future of oil prices currently hangs on two major variables: the reality of US-Iran diplomacy and the strength of the US dollar.

1. Geopolitical Volatility: While de-escalation is the current theme, financial institutions like DBS and Deutsche Bank warn that the situation remains fragile. Should diplomatic efforts fail or military rhetoric resurface, a renewed rally beyond the $70/barrel mark cannot be ruled out.
2. The "Warsh Effect": The US dollar has been gaining strength following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Because oil is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive for international buyers, creating a natural headwind for price growth.

In the short term, markets are looking toward upcoming US inventory data from the API and EIA to gauge domestic demand.

While the current trend is bearish, the structural risks in the Middle East suggest that the "pause" in the oil rally may be temporary rather than a permanent reversal.

For now, investors are moving with caution, balancing the hope of a diplomatic solution against the ever-present threat of supply disruptions. Keep an eye on developments between Iran-US when they meet on Friday in Turkey.

Technical Analysis - WTI

From a technical analysis standpoint, WTI drop is flirting with a close below the 200-day MA.

This would not be the first time that WTI has broken above the 200-day MA and reversed the move in a few days.

The last time WTI traded above the 200-day MA was in July 2025 when the price only managed to hold above the 200-day MA for two days before slipping back below for a prolonged period.

All is not lost for bulls though as the 100-day MA may provide the support that bulls are looking for as it rests on the psychological 60.00 handle, making this area a key confluence zone.

The period-14 RSI is just shy of the neutral 50 level and if it holds above this is a positive signs for bulls as it is seen as a sign of bullish momentum.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart, February 2, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Key levels to keep an eye on

Support:

• 60.00
• 58.50
• 57.00

Resistance:

• 62.32
• 64.73
• 66.15

Gold extended sharp drop and fell to the lowest in one month, after trading on Monday started with about $100 gap lower, signaling that negative sentiment (after Friday’s biggest daily drop in over four decades), persists.

De-escalating tensions over Iran and initial signals that war in Ukraine might be heading towards its end, contributed to fresh selling, with speculations that big names were also in play to significantly lower metal’s price.

The cocktail of key factors pushed the price significantly lower, though on the bigger picture this still looks like a healthy correction of larger rally, as today’s spike low ($4402) found footstep just above 50% retracement of $3120/$5598 (May/ January upleg).

Today’s strong bounce from new low at $4402 (approx. $300) signals growing bids, with close above cracked Fibo 38.2% level ($4652), along with formation of bull-trap, needed to keep in play hopes of an end of potential further recovery.

However, more work at the upside will be still required to validate such scenario (close above Fibo 38.2% of $5598/$4402 pullback) while filling today’s gap and sustained break above $5000 (psychological / 50% retracement) would generate stronger bullish signal.

Negative scenario, on the other hand, may see today’s bounce as positioning for fresh push lower, as near-term action remains weighed by Friday’s massive bearish candle, while overall sentiment is still predominantly negative, due to weaker key fundamental factors, as well as existing fears of more losses after panic selling in past two sessions.

Lower triggers lay at $4359 (50% retracement) and $4348 (top of rising thin daily cloud, spanned between $4348 and $4218), with break here to generate fresh bearish signal and unmask nest targets at $4067 (Fibo 61.8% of $3120/$5598) and $4000 (psychological).

Res: 4859; 4900; 5000; 5100.
Sup: 4402; 4348; 4218; 4170.

Brent Crude Oil: ⬇️ Sell

• Brent Crude Oil reversed from resistance level 69.50
•  Likely to fall to support level 64.25

Brent Crude Oil recently reversed from the resistance area located between the pivotal resistance level 69.50 (which has been reversing the price from September), upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June of 2025.

The downward reversal from this resistance area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Long-legged Doji – strong sell signal for Brent Crude Oil.

Brent Crude Oil can be expected to fall to the next support level 64.25 (former resistance from November and January).

Bitcoin: ⬆️ Buy

• Bitcoin reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 80000.00

Bitcoin cryptocurrency recently reversed up from the support area located between the support levels 75000.00 and 77400.00, which reversed the price multiple times at the start of 2025.

This support area was strengthened by the lower weekly Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the weekly impulse from 2024.

Given the oversold weekly Stochastic and weekly uptrend, Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next round resistance level 80000.00.

Summary

The 4.7 point jump in the ISM manufacturing index is consistent with our call for a modest broadening in capital expenditures and manufacturing activity, though some year-end replenishing amid trade uncertainty could be exaggerating momentum. Prices at 59.0 is not terribly encouraging for the efforts to get inflation in check.

"A new year, with new challenges"

The ISM manufacturing index crossed back over into expansion territory after 10 straight months in the purgatory of contraction last year. Today's 52.6 reading for January signals a welcome bit of relief for manufacturing even if some year-end quirks are giving only a temporary boost to the numbers in today's report (chart).

Three out of five of the subcomponents that feed into the headline for the ISM manufacturing index are now in expansion territory. The biggest overall move was in new orders which jumped 9.7 points to 57.1 (chart). That's the biggest one-month pop outside the pandemic since 2001 and signals the fastest pace of expansion for this forward-looking measure in nearly four years. While we've highlighted the broadening out in durable goods orders as a signal traditional manufacturing and cap-ex might be gaining traction, this likely overstates the extent of order expansion as the release noted "post-holiday replenishment and customers’ desire to get ahead of additional tariff-driven price increases as possible reasons for the increase [in orders]".

Supplier deliveries came in at 54.4 in January and that too lifted the headline, although we should be wary of long wait-times amid evolving trade tensions. Production also jumped 5.2 points to hit 55.9 suggesting a somewhat brighter assessment of production despite lackluster industrial production data.

The select respondent comments continue to strike a tone of caution around activity due to tariffs. Nearly all respondents made direct mentions of tariffs last month, while three industries (Computer & Electronic Products, Chemical Products and Apparel & Leather) specifically mentioned moving manufacturing out of China. Others noted supply chain volatility, the inability to plan long-term and profit misses because of tariff costs.

The prices paid index inched higher to 59.0, indicating some stubbornness in prices with 11 industries reporting paying higher prices for raw materials last month (chart). Just under 30% of respondents reported paying higher prices, which is the highest in at least four months, but remains well below the 49.2% that reported so back in April 2025.

The employment index registered its highest reading in a year, although at 48.1 it remains consistent with a contraction in hiring in the sector. The release also noted that "for every comment on hiring, there were two on reducing head counts."

We continue to anticipate a modest broadening in capital expenditures this year, and even if the latest data overstate the current run rate of growth, the January ISM ultimately suggests some sign of stabilization in underlying manufacturing activity.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped sharply from 47.9 to 52.6 in January, far above expectations of 48.3 and marking the first return to expansion since February 2025. The scale of the rebound points to a clear improvement in factory momentum rather than a marginal stabilization.

The details were notably strong. Production rose from 50.7 to 55.9, the highest level since February 2022. New orders surged from 47.4 to 57.1, expanding for the first time since August. Employment also improved, with the index rising from 44.8 to 48.1, though it remains in contraction territory. Price pressures edged higher but stayed contained, with the prices index ticking up from 58.5 to 59.0.

Based on the historical relationship tracked by the Institute for Supply Management, the January PMI reading is consistent with real GDP growth of around 1.7% annualized, reinforcing the view that US growth momentum has firmed at the start of the year.

Full US ISM manufacturing release here.

Market Overview

The crypto market has lost nearly 13% of its capitalisation over the past seven days, falling to $2.59 trillion at the time of writing. With the market bottoming out at $2.52T, it is only $0.1T above last April’s low. The sharp decline following consolidation signals the start of an extended downtrend. However, we also note that the current levels are in the strongest resistance zone for 2021–2024, which became support in 2025. Therefore, it is worth preparing for another and possibly quite protracted tug-of-war in the $2.3–2.7T range.

Bitcoin is trading near $78K, rebounding after this morning’s dip below $75K. The first cryptocurrency began its recovery in April from the same area, which probably served as a trigger for bold buyers. We consider it an important bearish signal that BTC began to sell off actively after an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above the 50-day average. The main scenario for the markets now may be a fall towards $50K in the next month and a half to two months.

Bitcoin fell 11% in January to $78K; the decline has been ongoing since October. The last time BTC fell for four consecutive months was exactly seven years ago — from October 2018 to January 2019. After that, the first cryptocurrency showed impressive growth over five months. In terms of seasonality, February is considered the best month of the year for BTC. Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has ended this month with growth in 11 cases and only declined in four. The average growth was 27.6%, and the average decline was 19.5%.

News Background

Investors withdrew $1.60 billion (-2.8%) from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January. The outflow from funds has continued for a record three months in a row, amounting to almost $6.2B during this period. Investors withdrew $0.36 billion from spot Ethereum ETFs in the US in January; over the last three months, the outflow amounted to $2.4 billion. In January, investors invested $0.10 billion in SOL ETFs.

Bitcoin’s hash rate has fallen 12% over the past four months, according to Glassnode. This is the most significant correction since 2021, when Chinese authorities banned cryptocurrency mining.

According to The Block, mining company Bit Digital intends to completely abandon Bitcoin mining to focus on investments in Ethereum and strategies related to artificial intelligence.

In January, the average cost of mining one bitcoin reached $74,300, according to Capriole Investments. Large market players have a margin of safety, but the capitulation of some companies could lead to increased sales of mined coins to cover costs.

According to a report by auditing firm BDO, Tether’s profit for 2025 exceeded $10 billion. The USDT issuer’s excess reserves reached $6.3 billion. During the reporting period, Tether issued nearly 50 billion USDT, with the total issuance of the largest stablecoin exceeding 186 billion tokens.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1809; (P) 1.1892; (R1) 1.1934; More….

EUR/USD's break of 1.1835 support confirms short term topping at 1.2081. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.1718). Firm break there will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2 psychological level, and target 1.1576 support. Nevertheless, decisive break above 1.2 will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1458) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.