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The USDJPY jumped 1.5% following BoJ policy decision, hitting a seven-week high in early Friday’s trading.

The central bank’s first meeting under new governor Ueda resulted in a widely expected decision of keeping ultra-low policy unchanged, but modified its future guidance, signaling a broad review of the monetary policy over time.

New governor showed he is not in rush to start withdrawing current monetary stimulus and tightening the policy, despite warning signals from unexpected rise in consumer inflation in Tokyo, which increases pressure on the central bank.

Fresh acceleration pushed the USDJPY pair through pivotal Fibo barrier at 134.75 (61.8% of 137.90/129.64) which repeatedly capped the action since mid-March, signaling continuation of the uptrend from 129.64 (Mar 24 low).

Bulls so far show no signs of fatigue and pressure target at 135.95 (Fibo 76.4%), the last significant obstacle on the way towards key barriers at 136.98 (200DMA) and 137.90 (Mar 8 peak).

Daily studies maintain strong positive momentum and MA’s turned to bullish configuration, supporting the advance, while the pair is on track for the third consecutive bullish weekly close, which additionally brightens near-term outlook.

Bulls will look for confirmation on Friday’s close above former high at 135.13 to keep in play preferred near-term dip-buying strategy.

Only return and close below 134.75 Fibo level would weaken near-term structure on signals of false break higher and a bull-trap.

Res: 135.95; 136.98; 137.35; 137.90.
Sup: 135.13; 134.75; 134.09; 133.77.

GBPJPY is rallying above the 169.00 psychological mark, recording a new four-month high. The rebound off the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 165.40 support is endorsing the bullish outlook in the long-term. The RSI is approaching the 70 level, while the MACD is moving sideways near its trigger line and well above the zero level.

The 169.30 number, where the high from December 2022 lies could challenge any bullish attempts before resting near the next 172.20 resistance level.

Alternatively, an extension below the 20-day SMA of 166.00 and the 165.40 barrier may strengthen the case of a down-trending market in the short-term, hitting the 50- and the 200-day SMAs at 163.75 and 163.35 respectively. Failure to hold above that floor could cause another negative extension towards 162.80 before meeting the uptrend line at 160.00.

In brief, the fresh four-month high has upgraded the long-term outlook to strongly bullish.

On Friday morning, the EURJPY rose above 149 yen per euro on news from Japan. There, unemployment rose to 2.8% (expected 2.5%, last month 2.6%, a year ago 2.6%), it was higher only in the summer of 2021 (2.9%).

Market participants also followed the meeting of the Bank of Japan, which is now managed by Kazuo Ueda. As expected, the Bank of Japan said it would maintain ultra-low interest rates. However, at the same time it became known that the bank will conduct a "broad review of monetary policy."

It is possible that this revision will lay the groundwork for Kazuo Ueda's phasing out of the massive stimulus program pursued by his predecessor.

Perhaps the level of 148 yen per euro (1), which previously served as resistance, will now become a support for the bulls to try to break through the psychological mark of 150 yen per euro. In 2014, this mark turned out to be unattainable for them.

The last few days have been volatile for cryptocurrency traders. The BTCUSD rate fell to the USD 27k support line and rose to USD 30k.

Bullish sentiment was fueled by new fears in the banking sector: First Republic Bank’s Q1 report showed a significant outflow of deposits, although earlier USD 30 billion was poured into the bank to calm depositors. WSJ writes about the lack of a simple solution. Stocks plummeted more than 50%, eroding confidence in the banking sector but boosting confidence in cryptocurrencies.

The bearish mood was driven by:

→ the news about the requirements of the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange to issue the data of its users to the court. The Kraken exchange refused to comply with the requirements, believing that the IRS had gone beyond what was permitted.

→ the Bitrue Incident: A technical glitch caused the XRP price to drop to zero, resulting in the liquidation of its clients' positions.

Looking at the BTCUSD chart, it can be noted that the psychological level of USD 30k looks like a serious resistance. But with support from the USD 27k level (1) and the median line of the rising channel (2), the bulls may try to take a new assault.

Gold price is struggling to gain momentum above the $2,003 resistance. Crude oil price is consolidating losses and struggling to recover above $75.20.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price seems to be trading in a range below the $2,010 resistance against the US Dollar.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support near $1,982 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices declined heavily below the $79.00 and $76.50 support levels.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $75.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed a base above the $1,976 support zone. The price started a decent increase and was able to clear the $2,003 resistance zone.

However, the bears were active near the $2,010 resistance. There were more than two attempts to clear the $2,010 resistance but the bulls failed. It reacted to the downside and retested the $1,976 support.

The price is now rising and trading near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $2,003 swing high to the $1,974 low. Initial support on the downside is near a key bullish trend line at $1,982.

The first major support is near the $1,976 level. The main support sits near the $1,971 level. If there is a downside break below the $1,971 support, the price might decline heavily.

The next major support is near $1,960, below which the bulls could aim for a test of $1,950. On the upside, the bulls are facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,992. It coincides with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $2,003 swing high to the $1,974 low.

An upside break above the $1,992 resistance could send the price toward $2,003. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,010 level.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a fresh decline from well above $80.00 against the US Dollar. The price declined heavily below the $76.50 support zone.

Finally, it tested the $74.00 support zone. A low is formed near $74.00 and the price is now attempting a recovery wave. It is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79.00 swing high to the $74.00 low.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $75.20 and the 50-hour simple moving average. An upside break above the trend line resistance might send the price further higher.

The first major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79.00 swing high to the $74.00 low at $76.50, above which the price might accelerate higher toward $79.00. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80.00 level in the coming days.

On the downside, support is near the $74.00 level. The next major support is near $72.50. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $70.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $68.00 support zone.

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.1070 resistance and reacted to the downside. The Euro declined below the 1.1035 support against the US Dollar.

The pair tested the 1.1000 support and is currently showing a few bearish signs. On the upside, immediate resistance is near a connecting bearish trend line at 1.1035 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1070 level. A break above the 1.1070 resistance zone could start a decent increase. In the stated case, it could rise toward the 1.1120 resistance.

Conversely, the pair might resume its decline from the 1.1035 level. Initial support is near the 1.1000 zone. The next major support is near 1.0965. Any more losses might resend the pair toward the 1.0945 support in the near term.

NZD/USD tests critical floor

The US dollar advanced as the core PCE accelerated in Q1. The pair is hovering above the daily support of 0.6090 as kiwi buyers struggle to hold on to their gains. Rebounds have been capped so far which indicates a growing downward pressure. A bearish breakout would trigger a broader sell-off as trapped bulls scramble for the exit and lead to a correction below the psychological level of 0.6000. On the upside, 0.6180 is the first hurdle and only a close above the support-turned-resistance of 0.6220 would turn sentiment around.

EUR/JPY tests resistance

The Japanese yen recoups some losses as April’s CPI in the Tokyo area beat expectations. On the daily chart, the single currency is consolidating its gain after rising above October 2021’s high of 147.70. An attempt below 146.50 has shaken out some weaker hands but the overall upward direction remained intact. This level near the 20-day SMA is important in keeping the current bullish momentum going or a deeper retracement could be in order. A break above the recent peak at 148.60 would resume the uptrend.

Nasdaq100 breaks higher

The Nasdaq 100 surged as megacap tech companies reported upbeat results. The medium-term prospect remained upbeat after the price cleared the February high of 12800. This means that the latest pullback would be short-lived and the bulls have seen it as an opportunity to accumulate. As a fresh bullish drive takes out 13030, weakening the selling impetus in the process, a close above 13200 would pave the way for a bullish continuation to 13700. With the RSI shooting into the overbought area 12900 is the first support.

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped from 99.2 to 96.4 in April, dipping slightly lower under its medium-​term average value. KOF said, "at the moment, the Swiss economy cannot really find its footing."

The majority of the indicator bundles are affected by the softening. In particular, the indicators for manufacturing, services, hospitality and private consumption. In contrast, the outlook for foreign demand is stable and that for financial and insurance services is brightening.

Full Swiss KOF release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.42; (P) 133.81; (R1) 134.38; More...

USD/JPY's rebound from 129.62 resumed by breaking through 135.13 resistance today. Intraday bias is back on the upside with focus on near term channel resistance (now at 136.17). Sustained break there will raise the chance of resumption of whole rise from 127.20, and target 137.90 resistance and above. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 133.00 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 31.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting to 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8905; (P) 0.8941; (R1) 0.8978; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9001 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 0.8850. Intraday bias will be back on the upside 55 D EMA (now at 0.9120). Sustained break there will be a strong sign of bullish reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8850 will resume larger fall from 1.0146, to 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is in progress for 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.